5 ms·

Is Taiwan Next?

39 points by jseliger 5y ago

ilaksh 5y ago
What if it is, what are the consequences of a successful takeover?
- kwere 5y ago
  China Will claim restoration of Harmony and will close itself to the world while milking again the tributaries (belt & Road "partners")
- o0-0o 5y ago
  Less liberty and freedom. More enslavement.
- credit_guy 5y ago
  Among others, Japan and South Korea will get nuclear weapons. Taiwan had a nuclear weapons program in the past, and in the '95-'96 Taiwan Straits crisis, its president made a declaration hinting at restarting the program [1], only to backpedal a few days later, presumably due to international pressure (mainly from the US). Taiwan currently has nuclear power plants, so, if it wants to procure Plutonium for weapons, it can. For the time being, it appears Taiwan is not trying at this point to acquire nukes, mainly because it still thinks the US security umbrella is sufficient. South Korea and especially Japan are much closer to being able to build nukes, if they so desire. I personally heard the former US defense secretary, Robert Gates, stating that he thinks Japan can get nukes in a matter of weeks. So, if China takes over Taiwan, there won't be anything in the world to stop Japan from getting nukes, and South Korea may join the party too. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Republic_of_China%27s_nuclear_program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Republic_of_Ch...
  - beaunative 5y ago
    nuclear fussion and fission are two very different reactions. It would require significant amount of work to transfer the content of power planet to an atomic bomb
    - credit_guy 5y ago
      Not sure what you're getting at. The spent rods from nuclear reactors contain Plutonium, which is quite trivial to separate chemically. If Japan wants to do that it can certainly can do it (and it's likely they already stockpiled some Plutonium for a rainy day). Plutonium can then be used to make a Nagasaki-type bomb. Nothing to do with fusion. If someone wants to go further and make a hydrogen bomb (i.e. fusion-based), that's also possible, but fission-based atomic bombs are good enough to provide deterrence.
      - beaunative 5y ago
        Well, in your case, it would still require extensive testing, it's not a flip the coin kind of thing, otherwise you are effectively setting off a nuclear bomb on your homeland.
- agency 5y ago
  I have heard people claim that TSMC has plans to destroy their own facilities scorched earth style in case of a takeover. I don’t know how credible those claims are but if true and if they were executed that would have huge ramifications on the global economy. We are already seeing how a more minor disruption in the case of covid is still having big effects in terms of chip shortages causing car manufacturing lines to stop and such.
- excalibur 5y ago
  Nuclear war.
- jhvkjhk 5y ago
  Peace to the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea. The U.S. and its tributaries will not show their warships and do maneuver there.
  - nradov 5y ago
    Hopefully the US and it's allies continue conducting freedom of navigation operations throughout the region in order to preserve access to international waters for everyone.
    - jhvkjhk 5y ago
      Like the U.S. seizing the Panama Canal and nearby lands in the Operation Just Cause(U.S. Invasion of Panama), in order to preserve access to international waters for everyone, right? It is also ridiculous to say the U.S. conducting the Freedom of navigation, because the U.S. has not signed nor ratified the convention. The U.S. only use its name to enlarge its militarily pressure. EDIT: forgot to mention not the Taiwan Straits nor the South China Sea is international waters, they are Chinese territorial waters.
thedudeabides5 5y ago
Guys, I’m not sure you have heard but some Han fisherman tried to colonize Taiwan after 1945. That along with the fact KMT retreated there means.... Taiwan is part of China. And if you disagree they are ready to nuke you.
sunstone 5y ago
When the KMT left the mainland and set up shop in Taiwan as the communists took over China, they brought with them loads and loads of Chinese cultural treasures. Now might be a good time to trade those treasures back to China in return for future independence. That sounds like a fair deal for both sides. China may think they can just invade Tawain and take the treasures back but by now they are all probably buried deep under Cheyenne Mountain.
futhey 5y ago
https://archive.is/JrFYc https://archive.is/JrFYc
jimmyvalmer 5y ago
D___, that was a long read.

Is Taiwan Next?

39 points by jseliger 5y ago

ilaksh 5y ago

What if it is, what are the consequences of a successful takeover?

kwere 5y ago
China Will claim restoration of Harmony and will close itself to the world while milking again the tributaries (belt & Road "partners")
o0-0o 5y ago
Less liberty and freedom. More enslavement.
credit_guy 5y ago
Among others, Japan and South Korea will get nuclear weapons. Taiwan had a nuclear weapons program in the past, and in the '95-'96 Taiwan Straits crisis, its president made a declaration hinting at restarting the program [1], only to backpedal a few days later, presumably due to international pressure (mainly from the US). Taiwan currently has nuclear power plants, so, if it wants to procure Plutonium for weapons, it can. For the time being, it appears Taiwan is not trying at this point to acquire nukes, mainly because it still thinks the US security umbrella is sufficient. South Korea and especially Japan are much closer to being able to build nukes, if they so desire. I personally heard the former US defense secretary, Robert Gates, stating that he thinks Japan can get nukes in a matter of weeks. So, if China takes over Taiwan, there won't be anything in the world to stop Japan from getting nukes, and South Korea may join the party too. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Republic_of_China%27s_nuclear_program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Republic_of_Ch...
- beaunative 5y ago
  nuclear fussion and fission are two very different reactions. It would require significant amount of work to transfer the content of power planet to an atomic bomb
  - credit_guy 5y ago
    Not sure what you're getting at. The spent rods from nuclear reactors contain Plutonium, which is quite trivial to separate chemically. If Japan wants to do that it can certainly can do it (and it's likely they already stockpiled some Plutonium for a rainy day). Plutonium can then be used to make a Nagasaki-type bomb. Nothing to do with fusion. If someone wants to go further and make a hydrogen bomb (i.e. fusion-based), that's also possible, but fission-based atomic bombs are good enough to provide deterrence.
    - beaunative 5y ago
      Well, in your case, it would still require extensive testing, it's not a flip the coin kind of thing, otherwise you are effectively setting off a nuclear bomb on your homeland.
agency 5y ago
I have heard people claim that TSMC has plans to destroy their own facilities scorched earth style in case of a takeover. I don’t know how credible those claims are but if true and if they were executed that would have huge ramifications on the global economy. We are already seeing how a more minor disruption in the case of covid is still having big effects in terms of chip shortages causing car manufacturing lines to stop and such.
excalibur 5y ago
Nuclear war.
jhvkjhk 5y ago
Peace to the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea. The U.S. and its tributaries will not show their warships and do maneuver there.
- nradov 5y ago
  Hopefully the US and it's allies continue conducting freedom of navigation operations throughout the region in order to preserve access to international waters for everyone.
  - jhvkjhk 5y ago
    Like the U.S. seizing the Panama Canal and nearby lands in the Operation Just Cause(U.S. Invasion of Panama), in order to preserve access to international waters for everyone, right? It is also ridiculous to say the U.S. conducting the Freedom of navigation, because the U.S. has not signed nor ratified the convention. The U.S. only use its name to enlarge its militarily pressure. EDIT: forgot to mention not the Taiwan Straits nor the South China Sea is international waters, they are Chinese territorial waters.

thedudeabides5 5y ago

Guys, I’m not sure you have heard but some Han fisherman tried to colonize Taiwan after 1945. That along with the fact KMT retreated there means.... Taiwan is part of China. And if you disagree they are ready to nuke you.

sunstone 5y ago

When the KMT left the mainland and set up shop in Taiwan as the communists took over China, they brought with them loads and loads of Chinese cultural treasures. Now might be a good time to trade those treasures back to China in return for future independence. That sounds like a fair deal for both sides. China may think they can just invade Tawain and take the treasures back but by now they are all probably buried deep under Cheyenne Mountain.

futhey 5y ago

https://archive.is/JrFYc https://archive.is/JrFYc

jimmyvalmer 5y ago

D___, that was a long read.