17 ms·

Warning Signals for Collapse of The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

269 points by Kaibeezy 5y ago

macintux 5y ago
Discussed here: - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28078575 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28078575 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28082887 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28082887
- vaylian 5y ago
  The current thread seems to point to the underlying paper.
  - ghc 5y ago
    Ironically I submitted a link to the original paper but the mods (in their infinite wisdom) changed my submission to point at a guardian article.
  - koheripbal 5y ago
    Only the first page is visible with the current nature.com link.
    - Kaibeezy 5y ago
      Nature must have changed it. Worked fine when posted. I'm curious as to why this primary source post was flagged/dropped as a dupe, yet several secondary news articles remained posted. I usually scan or search HN before posting, didn't see any of those. In any event, it's clearly a story of real interest to this community.
idownvoted 5y ago
And the Framing continues: in the course of the last century, the AMOC *may* have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition. The PIK Potsdam was founded in the 1990s by a controversal professor named Schellnhuber [1]. This nature article says that the AMOC may have moved to a point of critical transition but diliberately chose a headline that reads like there is an imminent collapse. And just in case, if the narrative isn't hammered enough into your cortex, every repost, link or citation will be slightly rephrased to make sure the message sticks. [1] https://www.pnn.de/wissenschaft/katastrophenmythen-und-druck-auf-journalisten/22038154.html https://www.pnn.de/wissenschaft/katastrophenmythen-und-druck...*
nynx 5y ago
What do I even do with this information? Something I haven’t seen articles or research about is how to psychologically cope with the slow collapse of our ecology. EDIT: To the people saying to get a house where climate change will be as minimal as possible: As a young person, I probably will never be able to own a house. I rent. If I’m living in a place where climate change has less effect, landlords will raise the price of rent dramatically and I won’t be able to live there anymore.
- quenix 5y ago
  This is my question too. I feel a sense of despair, uncertainty, and powerlessness reading these. Yes, awareness is important, but... what the actual hell am I supposed to do with this information?
  - malloryerik 5y ago
    Maybe join or build a company or some kind of activity to help us survive.
    - quenix 5y ago
      I'm an undergraduate student and in no financial position to start or join a company. This just further illustrates that a large segment of society is powerless against things like this. The headlines don't help, they just actively worsen my mental health.
      - CalRobert 5y ago
        If I might ask - how are you not in a position to join a company? Is getting a job not a normal thing to do when you're in a rough spot financially? Climate.careers might be worth a look (I'm not affiliated, just keeping an eye on it myself)
        quenix 5y ago
        Thanks for the link.
fogihujy 5y ago
Summer heatwaves, freezing cold winters, decreased crop yields, permafrost further south... The list goes on. If this actually happens, then the situation in the Nordic countries are going to be quite interesting in 10-20 years. I suspect the climate goals will be thrown out the window unless the rest of Europe manages to find homes for 25 million Nordic climate refugees. It's a good thing I like buckwheat and beetroots.
- joelbluminator 5y ago
  Is that so different than current weather in Canada?
  - clajiness 5y ago
    Probably not. As a Minnesotan, I'd consider a country like Norway, but I fear that a good chunk of the coastal cities will eventually be underwater anyway.
  - fogihujy 5y ago
    Not at all. It's quite different from what the Nordics are like today, though. When I lived in Denmark the Copenhagen subway was shut down because of a bit of snowfall. 10 cm of snow brought Aalborg to a halt for days. Things we laugh at in Finland, but which they are simply not prepared for. I'm afraid good old-fashioned -30C Siberian cold front would cause serious disruptions in Denmark and the southern half of Sweden (and possibly southern Norway -- not sure how used they are to cold weather, being blessed with ice-free coasts and all that). And without the North-Atlantic current to keep things nice and warm, it's just a matter of time before proper winters become a regular thing.
    - joelbluminator 5y ago
      OK, there will be a disruption if this scenario plays out. Trains shutting down, new infrastructure that needs to be built. But all of the people migrating away? Come on now.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
refurb 5y ago
Pretty sure they predicted the collapse of another ocean current like 5 years ago, yet here we are.
- sadness3 5y ago
  Has never happened != will never happen.
  - refurb 5y ago
    Yes, but when predictions fail to materialize one needs to weigh future predictions appropriately.
    - dubcanada 5y ago
      lol would you prefer it to have happened? I am not fully sure you understand the implications... Also these things are HUGE and require A LOT to mess with them. It can take decades, just the same as it probably took centuries for it to start.
      - midrus 5y ago
        You're wasting your time. These negationist dumbasses are everywhere and doesn't matter how much you explain or how many proof you have. They will counter argument you with a link to a Twitter of some random Illuminati or similar.
    - CapmCrackaWaka 5y ago
      You are being downvoted for what I see as a fairly logical comment. The problem that climate change researchers keep running into is that these things are extremely hard to predict, and predictions are sometimes embarrassingly incorrect[1]. So, here is another doomsday prediction. As someone who whole-heartedly believes climate change is happening and is a very real threat, I am forced to take this article with a big grain of salt, unfortunately, unless there is an immense amount of evidence to the contrary. Also, I don't want people to assume that I am arguing 'these scientists have been wrong in the past, so they will be wrong in the future'. That is definitely not what I am saying. But at this point it is a frustrating boy-cried-wolf situation with these predictions. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/us/glaciers-national-park-2020-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/us/glaciers-national-park-202...
outside1234 5y ago
On the positive side does this possibly mean that glaciers would start growing again in Europe and the longer winters would in general mean more snow and reflected sunlight?
- fsloth 5y ago
  No glaciers. This won't cause an iceage. Just more calamitous weather patterns.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
astrophysics 5y ago
What if people stop having so many children?
- adwn 5y ago
  In those countries that are most responsible for climate change, they already did.
- _Microft 5y ago
  They already do. Peak population growth rate (i.e. new humans relative to existing ones per year) was over 50 years ago and it was decreasing most of the time since then. We now only suffer from the fact that the base number is now much larger (leading to higher absolute growth numbers). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth#/media/File:World_population_growth_rate_1950%E2%80%932050.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth#/media/File:...
- adrianN 5y ago
  That won't make us become carbon neutral before we've hit tipping points that take the problem out of our control.
alkonaut 5y ago
So I was happy my house isn’t in the path of hurricanes, at risk of flooding or forest fires. An extreme summer heatwave doesn’t kill many it just means maybe 30C so I swim a bit more. But if the Gulf Stream stops it’s still almost uninhabitable.
wazoox 5y ago
Like future, collapse is unevenly distributed, but it's already here. Unfortunately, people who aren't experiencing it directly prefer believing it's just not happening. Biodiversity is collapsing right now at unprecedented rates; we're in the 6th Extinction. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/ https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/natur... Arthropods are collapsing wordlwide: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/ https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/natur... Ocean life is in grave danger: https://hyperaxion.com/biology/ocean-biodiversity-collapse-next-decade/ https://hyperaxion.com/biology/ocean-biodiversity-collapse-n... A study concluded that Syria's civil war was in large part driven by climate change and ecological problems (i.e. society collapse is already among us). https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/150302-syria-war-climate-change-drought https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/150302-sy... Our way of life WILL change dramatically in the coming years. The alternative is as follows: either we choose to reduce drastically our individual and collective impact, or nature and the law of physics will achieve it anyway in much harsher ways. The option to go "business as usual" simply isn't available.
yread 5y ago
Is there like a consensus behind this or is it just one guy saying it? I can't really evaluate the claims in the paper. It got published in highly-impacted peer-reviewed journal, ok, but so does a lot of stuff that turns out not true later so that's not much a signal

269 points by Kaibeezy 5y ago

Discussed here: - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28078575 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28078575 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28082887 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28082887

vaylian 5y ago
The current thread seems to point to the underlying paper.
- ghc 5y ago
  Ironically I submitted a link to the original paper but the mods (in their infinite wisdom) changed my submission to point at a guardian article.
- koheripbal 5y ago
  Only the first page is visible with the current nature.com link.
  - Kaibeezy 5y ago
    Nature must have changed it. Worked fine when posted. I'm curious as to why this primary source post was flagged/dropped as a dupe, yet several secondary news articles remained posted. I usually scan or search HN before posting, didn't see any of those. In any event, it's clearly a story of real interest to this community.

idownvoted 5y ago

And the Framing continues: in the course of the last century, the AMOC *may* have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition. The PIK Potsdam was founded in the 1990s by a controversal professor named Schellnhuber [1]. This nature article says that the AMOC may have moved to a point of critical transition but diliberately chose a headline that reads like there is an imminent collapse. And just in case, if the narrative isn't hammered enough into your cortex, every repost, link or citation will be slightly rephrased to make sure the message sticks. [1] https://www.pnn.de/wissenschaft/katastrophenmythen-und-druck-auf-journalisten/22038154.html https://www.pnn.de/wissenschaft/katastrophenmythen-und-druck...*

nynx 5y ago

What do I even do with this information? Something I haven’t seen articles or research about is how to psychologically cope with the slow collapse of our ecology. EDIT: To the people saying to get a house where climate change will be as minimal as possible: As a young person, I probably will never be able to own a house. I rent. If I’m living in a place where climate change has less effect, landlords will raise the price of rent dramatically and I won’t be able to live there anymore.

quenix 5y ago
This is my question too. I feel a sense of despair, uncertainty, and powerlessness reading these. Yes, awareness is important, but... what the actual hell am I supposed to do with this information?
- malloryerik 5y ago
  Maybe join or build a company or some kind of activity to help us survive.
  - quenix 5y ago
    I'm an undergraduate student and in no financial position to start or join a company. This just further illustrates that a large segment of society is powerless against things like this. The headlines don't help, they just actively worsen my mental health.
    - CalRobert 5y ago
      If I might ask - how are you not in a position to join a company? Is getting a job not a normal thing to do when you're in a rough spot financially? Climate.careers might be worth a look (I'm not affiliated, just keeping an eye on it myself)
      - quenix 5y ago
        Thanks for the link.

fogihujy 5y ago

Summer heatwaves, freezing cold winters, decreased crop yields, permafrost further south... The list goes on. If this actually happens, then the situation in the Nordic countries are going to be quite interesting in 10-20 years. I suspect the climate goals will be thrown out the window unless the rest of Europe manages to find homes for 25 million Nordic climate refugees. It's a good thing I like buckwheat and beetroots.

joelbluminator 5y ago
Is that so different than current weather in Canada?
- clajiness 5y ago
  Probably not. As a Minnesotan, I'd consider a country like Norway, but I fear that a good chunk of the coastal cities will eventually be underwater anyway.
- fogihujy 5y ago
  Not at all. It's quite different from what the Nordics are like today, though. When I lived in Denmark the Copenhagen subway was shut down because of a bit of snowfall. 10 cm of snow brought Aalborg to a halt for days. Things we laugh at in Finland, but which they are simply not prepared for. I'm afraid good old-fashioned -30C Siberian cold front would cause serious disruptions in Denmark and the southern half of Sweden (and possibly southern Norway -- not sure how used they are to cold weather, being blessed with ice-free coasts and all that). And without the North-Atlantic current to keep things nice and warm, it's just a matter of time before proper winters become a regular thing.
  - joelbluminator 5y ago
    OK, there will be a disruption if this scenario plays out. Trains shutting down, new infrastructure that needs to be built. But all of the people migrating away? Come on now.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

refurb 5y ago

Pretty sure they predicted the collapse of another ocean current like 5 years ago, yet here we are.

sadness3 5y ago
Has never happened != will never happen.
- refurb 5y ago
  Yes, but when predictions fail to materialize one needs to weigh future predictions appropriately.
  - dubcanada 5y ago
    lol would you prefer it to have happened? I am not fully sure you understand the implications... Also these things are HUGE and require A LOT to mess with them. It can take decades, just the same as it probably took centuries for it to start.
    - midrus 5y ago
      You're wasting your time. These negationist dumbasses are everywhere and doesn't matter how much you explain or how many proof you have. They will counter argument you with a link to a Twitter of some random Illuminati or similar.
  - CapmCrackaWaka 5y ago
    You are being downvoted for what I see as a fairly logical comment. The problem that climate change researchers keep running into is that these things are extremely hard to predict, and predictions are sometimes embarrassingly incorrect[1]. So, here is another doomsday prediction. As someone who whole-heartedly believes climate change is happening and is a very real threat, I am forced to take this article with a big grain of salt, unfortunately, unless there is an immense amount of evidence to the contrary. Also, I don't want people to assume that I am arguing 'these scientists have been wrong in the past, so they will be wrong in the future'. That is definitely not what I am saying. But at this point it is a frustrating boy-cried-wolf situation with these predictions. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/us/glaciers-national-park-2020-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/us/glaciers-national-park-202...

outside1234 5y ago

On the positive side does this possibly mean that glaciers would start growing again in Europe and the longer winters would in general mean more snow and reflected sunlight?

fsloth 5y ago
No glaciers. This won't cause an iceage. Just more calamitous weather patterns.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

astrophysics 5y ago

What if people stop having so many children?

adwn 5y ago
In those countries that are most responsible for climate change, they already did.
_Microft 5y ago
They already do. Peak population growth rate (i.e. new humans relative to existing ones per year) was over 50 years ago and it was decreasing most of the time since then. We now only suffer from the fact that the base number is now much larger (leading to higher absolute growth numbers). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth#/media/File:World_population_growth_rate_1950%E2%80%932050.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth#/media/File:...
adrianN 5y ago
That won't make us become carbon neutral before we've hit tipping points that take the problem out of our control.

alkonaut 5y ago

So I was happy my house isn’t in the path of hurricanes, at risk of flooding or forest fires. An extreme summer heatwave doesn’t kill many it just means maybe 30C so I swim a bit more. But if the Gulf Stream stops it’s still almost uninhabitable.

wazoox 5y ago

Like future, collapse is unevenly distributed, but it's already here. Unfortunately, people who aren't experiencing it directly prefer believing it's just not happening. Biodiversity is collapsing right now at unprecedented rates; we're in the 6th Extinction. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/ https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/natur... Arthropods are collapsing wordlwide: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/ https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/natur... Ocean life is in grave danger: https://hyperaxion.com/biology/ocean-biodiversity-collapse-next-decade/ https://hyperaxion.com/biology/ocean-biodiversity-collapse-n... A study concluded that Syria's civil war was in large part driven by climate change and ecological problems (i.e. society collapse is already among us). https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/150302-syria-war-climate-change-drought https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/150302-sy... Our way of life WILL change dramatically in the coming years. The alternative is as follows: either we choose to reduce drastically our individual and collective impact, or nature and the law of physics will achieve it anyway in much harsher ways. The option to go "business as usual" simply isn't available.

yread 5y ago

Is there like a consensus behind this or is it just one guy saying it? I can't really evaluate the claims in the paper. It got published in highly-impacted peer-reviewed journal, ok, but so does a lot of stuff that turns out not true later so that's not much a signal