14 ms·

94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

cassianoleal 5y ago
No paywall link: https://archive.is/IBmbl https://archive.is/IBmbl
dontreact 5y ago
This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.
- brianwawok 5y ago
  I wouldn't say we are shooting for it, but it looks like we are heading that direction.
- SavantIdiot 5y ago
  The US doesn't have a choice to shoot for herd immunity because the remaining willfully unvaccinated population is both anti-mask and anti-vax. EDIT: Guess I worded that badly. What I mean is: choosing herd immunity is inevitable, so there is no choice. It will happen. EDIT2: It didn't occur to me that there is a huge risk if more deadly mutations happen faster than herd immunity.
  - carnitas 5y ago
    That means they will be infected and subsequently immune, boosting herd immunity
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - wusher 5y ago
    Herd immunity can also be achieved by the anti-vax people catching the virus. They can develop immunity by being sick instead of getting a shot.
    - SavantIdiot 5y ago
      Exactly. That's my point. It is unavoidable.
      - Animats 5y ago
        We can hope. Some people have already become ill from COVID more than once.[1] This is rare, but it happens. Immunity from vaccination seems to be stronger than immunity from having the disease, but it's too early to be sure. How long vaccine immunity lasts is an open question. So far, it's at least N months, where N is how long the vaccines have been in wide use. Beyond that is speculation. [1] https://www.brgeneral.org/news-blog/2021/july/can-i-get-covid-more-than-once-/ https://www.brgeneral.org/news-blog/2021/july/can-i-get-covi...
        criticaltinker 5y ago
        > Immunity from vaccination seems to be stronger than immunity from having the disease, but it's too early to be sure Unless anyone can cite peer-reviewed sources that indicate otherwise, there doesn't appear to be any conclusive evidence on this point. In fact these publications provide evidence that naturally acquired immunity is just as effective as vaccination [1][2] ([2] hasn't been peer-reviewed yet). > How long vaccine immunity lasts is an open question. So far, it's at least N months, where N is how long the vaccines have been in wide use. Beyond that is speculation. I'm interested in recent peer-reviewed literature supporting this point, and would be grateful if anyone could share links. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf [2] Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v3.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v...
    - 5y ago
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - azth 5y ago
    > because the remaining willfully unvaccinated population is both anti-mask and anti-vax. That's not quite true. I know people who are not anti-vax, nor anti-mask, but they have an aversion to a new untested vaccine.
- kzrdude 5y ago
  Herd immunity (through vaccines) was always the goal, but I guess that's not what you mean?
- rowland66 5y ago
  The US is absolutely shooting for herd immunity now. Its just a question of how individual members of the herd want to achieve their immunity. They can take the easy way (vaccination) or the hard way (get Covid).
  - flavius29663 5y ago
    far from it https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab
  - loceng 5y ago
    Vaccine isn't necessarily easy for everyone, and catching COVID isn't necessarily hard for everyone; and underlying health condition seems to be primary determinant of that, not vaccination status. Edit to add: feel good about downvoting critical thinking, ideologues.
    - xienze 5y ago
      > Vaccine isn't necessarily easy for everyone, and catching COVID isn't necessarily hard for everyone There seems to be this prevailing belief that Covid infection == near certain death, when that's just not the case, but try explaining that...
    - bena 5y ago
      That seems like the stupidest lottery to enter into however. Even people without an "underlying health condition" have died. And even those who haven't died are experiencing long term complications from having had COVID. So you can either hope you don't have a hard time with COVID if you catch it. Or you can drastically reduce your chances of having a hard time and of catching it all by just taking a couple minutes out of your day to get vaccinated. Sorry, while I do like to gamble in general, if the penalties include death and/or permanent disability, I'm going with the option that makes that less likely. Which is the vaccine.
      - VBprogrammer 5y ago
- iamtheworstdev 5y ago
  It's unachievable in the US. Not enough people willing to get vaccinated. The bar for herd immunity is predicted at 80% or higher if covid keeps mutating to become more infectious. Measles had a 95% herd immunity threshold so who knows where covid could finally land.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    So far 55% or so have been fully vaccinated. 83 million, or 25% of the population, is estimated by the CDC to have been infected. I would guess we are getting fairly close to 70%, but it's hard to say what the overlap between those two numbers is. If it's really as contagious as they say, then it's only a matter of time before we hit 80%. The issue will then be the distribution by location and how long the protection lasts.
  - akiselev 5y ago
    Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens known to man with an R0 between 10 and 15. Even with the delta variant, COVID doesn't seem as transmissible so the threshold should be closer to 80 than 95.
    - threatofrain 5y ago
      The overwhelming majority of children in the US receive the MMR jab either due to public school pressure or immigration policy. It is unlikely that COVID vaccination will ever reach the same levels, despite sufficient abundance of vaccine supply to play vaccine diplomacy around the world. Meanwhile we have Australia deploying the military to enforce acute lockdowns because they failed to secure enough vaccines early on.
      - giantg2 5y ago
        They are talking about mandatory vaccinations for some schools.
        threatofrain 5y ago
- ummonk 5y ago
  We seem to be trying to "flatten the curve" and "slow the spread" to needlessly take extra long to get to the same final place - natural herd immunity.
  - bena 5y ago
    Come on. It's because when we were trying to flatten the curve, there were far too many people who denied it was anything more serious than the flu and didn't take any precautions. Same with slowing the spread. People did not listen. Because they were "free critical thinkers who can reach their own conclusions thank you very much". And they were wrong. And now they've put us here.
    - xienze 5y ago
      > there were far too many people who denied it was anything more serious than the flu and didn't take any precautions. Well apparently quite a number of people must have taken precautions, because that's the explanation for why the flu has basically disappeared off the face of the earth.
      - bena 5y ago
        The flu is far less contagious than COVID. Even small measures affect the numbers.
        xienze 5y ago
        Who knew after decades of administering flu vaccines that all it took to eradicate the flu was half-assedly wearing cotton face masks?
        bena 5y ago
        And more hand washing, and more distancing, etc. Because, like I said, the flu is far less contagious.
    - 5y ago
- ekster 5y ago
  Isn’t that what is happening? I was just in the US for a couple weeks (Portland, OR) and rules were minimal and optional everywhere. Not the kind of thing that would drive mental health issues, as best I could tell.
  - notJim 5y ago
    That can't possibly be right, according to Fox News, Portland, OR is an authoritarian communist hellhole. Just glad you got out alive.
    - kbelder 5y ago
      It's a communist hellhole, but it's not authoritarian.
    - ekster 5y ago
      Portland has a lot of problems compared to the last time I was there five years ago, but it's not in quarantine lockdown or anything like that.
danuker 5y ago
I am stunned so few governments publish such "in the wild" data. The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected, not to count "confirmed" cases. For instance, it seems only 8.8% is confirmed (or 88k out of 1 million) [1] . Add that to the 69% vaccinated with at least one dose [2], and you get 77.8% accounted for, which is less than the 95% quoted. [1] - https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... [2] - https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- makapuf 5y ago
  Remember this includes vaccinated persons
  - danuker 5y ago
    Yep, just realized and edited.
  - FabHK 5y ago
    Assuming the vaccination was successful in triggering the production of antibodies. It is unclear to me in what percentage of cases that is the case. Hong Kong requires 2 weeks quarantine even for vaccinated people entering, unless they have proof not only of vaccination, but of antibody count.
    - standardUser 5y ago
      The immune response from vaccines is generally far less variable than the immune response from fighting off an infection naturally.
MrBuddyCasino 5y ago
Simultaneously true: * it is clear everyone will get it * policy will be slow to adapt to that reality and continue strategy of containment
- gpmcadam 5y ago
  When you’ve ran an 18 month fear campaign its hard to get people to stop being scared
- scotty79 5y ago
  Now it begins the game of how many times will everyone get it, and every bit of immunity and slowing the spread helps so when we arrive at a variant that spreads as easily as chicken pox that is also accidentally as lethal as SARS, we will have vaccine for this specific variant delivered faster than people die.
mortehu 5y ago
I can't access the article, but is this a random sample or a convenience sample?
dirtyid 5y ago
So UK is what living with covid19 will look like for those in highly vaccinated western countries?
- IfOnlyYouKnew 5y ago
  Yes, but with better haircuts.
  - tatersolid 5y ago
    Wait… who has the bad haircuts? The UK or the rest? Because as a rural-by-birth American who has travelled a bit, I’d say Berlin beats London or even urban USA in their awful haircut percentage by a wide margin. But nobody can top central Indiana, USA for sheer quantity of nasty-ass mullets with scraggly mustaches.
- gpmcadam 5y ago
  The OP mentions England, not the whole of the UK
  - kcartlidge 5y ago
    They do, but similar results are being seen in the other nations of the UK.
stevesimmons 5y ago
The original ONS (Office for National Statistics) analysis is here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... Much more detail, more rigorous, primary source, and no pay wall. (@dang: maybe use this as the post's URL?)
- criticaltinker 5y ago
  Great source and includes the downloadable data, thanks for sharing. > While antibody positivity in the oldest age groups remains high, it decreased slightly in some regions and countries. This means that some people in these groups did not have enough antibodies to be detected in the test, not that they do not have any immune protection against the virus. I found that sentence intriguing, here is the link they recommend for more information to explain why people might still have immune protection even with low (undetectable) levels of antibodies [1]. [1] https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/04/28/antibodies-and-immunity-how-do-they-relate-to-one-another/ https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/04/28/antibodies-and-immunity-h...
Tarsul 5y ago
this data arguably shows that the choice really is between vaccination (+possibly weak infection) and infection. We can't hide from the virus. This doesn't mean that the only choice is opening up everything, but eventually... yes. Concious governments should first try to get more people vaccinated. Long covid is too frequent, otherwise. (400k have it in UK, see: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/01/almost-400000-have-had-long-covid-symptoms-year/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/01/almost-400000-ha... )
- logifail 5y ago
  > Long covid is too frequent, otherwise. Q: Is there something about this that we need to worry about particularly? I ask in the context of having had the Epstein-Barr virus in my late 30s and having been essentially knocked completely flat by it for the best part of a month, and not having recovered to full fitness for several months more. When I was a child, my Dad had shingles (apparently for the first time) in his late 40s, he was really quite poorly, that also took him months to get over. Endemic viruses already do this stuff, if you've even had a proper dose of seasonal flu you'll know what I'm taking about. Is there a reason (and non-anecdotal data...) to specifically worry about the long-term effects of C19 _more_ than all the other endemic viruses?
Animats 5y ago
Useful overview for the UK.[1] This is the Financial Times chart of cases and deaths by state and country, updated daily since early 2020. Things to notice: * UK cases spike. They go from 3 cases per 100K people in May to 71 cases per 100K in mid-July. That's the increased R0 of the Delta variant in action. Now they're declining rapidly, down to 39 cases per 100K people. Keep watching that graph; that shows herd immunity starting to take effect. * US cases are way up, too, but started later than in the UK. The US curve is still going up, following the UK curve, but about a month behind. That's why medical authorities are saying the next two months will be really bad in the US. * The US has about the same case rate as Tunisia, but a far lower death rate. Without good medical care, this is a killer disease. [1] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=tun&areas=nam&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usla&areasRegional=usnv&areasRegional=usar&areasRegional=usks&areasRegional=usmo&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=cases https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&are...
phreeza 5y ago
Amazing to see that the UK has >90% positive vaccine sentiment, and close to 90% with at least one dose of vaccines now. Am I reading that right? How did they manage to avoid the politicization of the issue that is keeping people from getting the shot in other Western countries?
- scotty79 5y ago
  They had Wakefield creating antivaxxers and then they had a journalist that got to the bottom of his BS. This expose was highly publicised so people got through into their heads that antivaxx is BS. Wakefield then ran away to US and Brits lived happily ever after ... till Brexit. At least that's what's postulated here https://youtu.be/8BIcAZxFfrc https://youtu.be/8BIcAZxFfrc
- kcartlidge 5y ago
  There were a few things that strike me (I'm British) as being quite relevant. The first is that from very early on the PM was flanked by medical professionals who appeared to be apolitical and were considered by all 'sides' on the vaccine debate to be honest (even if their opinions were sometimes contentious). That credibility meant they were listened to. The second is that the NHS is almost a religion over here - this contributes to the medical profession being extremely well trusted. In many places in the world the frontline medical staff are trusted but the system isn't. We're lucky here in that largely both aspects retain their respect. Note that I'm not commenting on other nations health systems or their population's opinion of it. We (the UK) are not unique in having reasonable healthcare; this is more about our high perception of the system providing it. Finally, as a society we are very compliant, and also with the not-for-profit AZ vaccine there was a certain feeling of a national champion who was also helping to save the world.
- hifly 5y ago
  I think the number is more like 50 odd percent of the population? I think the 90% number is of some limited subset like "adults who have received at least shot"?
  - phreeza 5y ago
74d-fe6-2c6 5y ago
That plus ... - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01442-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01442-9 - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01557-z https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01557-z ... actually implies that we do not need widespread vaccination campaigns. But guess what stocks the members of your government have in their depot and you bet they make sure you get your jab and the booster and the update and another booster ... This is biggest scam in the history of the earth.

No paywall link: https://archive.is/IBmbl https://archive.is/IBmbl

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

brianwawok 5y ago
I wouldn't say we are shooting for it, but it looks like we are heading that direction.
SavantIdiot 5y ago
The US doesn't have a choice to shoot for herd immunity because the remaining willfully unvaccinated population is both anti-mask and anti-vax. EDIT: Guess I worded that badly. What I mean is: choosing herd immunity is inevitable, so there is no choice. It will happen. EDIT2: It didn't occur to me that there is a huge risk if more deadly mutations happen faster than herd immunity.
- carnitas 5y ago
  That means they will be infected and subsequently immune, boosting herd immunity
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- wusher 5y ago
  Herd immunity can also be achieved by the anti-vax people catching the virus. They can develop immunity by being sick instead of getting a shot.
  - SavantIdiot 5y ago
    Exactly. That's my point. It is unavoidable.
    - Animats 5y ago
      We can hope. Some people have already become ill from COVID more than once.[1] This is rare, but it happens. Immunity from vaccination seems to be stronger than immunity from having the disease, but it's too early to be sure. How long vaccine immunity lasts is an open question. So far, it's at least N months, where N is how long the vaccines have been in wide use. Beyond that is speculation. [1] https://www.brgeneral.org/news-blog/2021/july/can-i-get-covid-more-than-once-/ https://www.brgeneral.org/news-blog/2021/july/can-i-get-covi...
      - criticaltinker 5y ago
        > Immunity from vaccination seems to be stronger than immunity from having the disease, but it's too early to be sure Unless anyone can cite peer-reviewed sources that indicate otherwise, there doesn't appear to be any conclusive evidence on this point. In fact these publications provide evidence that naturally acquired immunity is just as effective as vaccination [1][2] ([2] hasn't been peer-reviewed yet). > How long vaccine immunity lasts is an open question. So far, it's at least N months, where N is how long the vaccines have been in wide use. Beyond that is speculation. I'm interested in recent peer-reviewed literature supporting this point, and would be grateful if anyone could share links. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf [2] Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v3.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v...
  - 5y ago
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- azth 5y ago
  > because the remaining willfully unvaccinated population is both anti-mask and anti-vax. That's not quite true. I know people who are not anti-vax, nor anti-mask, but they have an aversion to a new untested vaccine.
kzrdude 5y ago
Herd immunity (through vaccines) was always the goal, but I guess that's not what you mean?
rowland66 5y ago
The US is absolutely shooting for herd immunity now. Its just a question of how individual members of the herd want to achieve their immunity. They can take the easy way (vaccination) or the hard way (get Covid).
- flavius29663 5y ago
  far from it https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab
- loceng 5y ago
  Vaccine isn't necessarily easy for everyone, and catching COVID isn't necessarily hard for everyone; and underlying health condition seems to be primary determinant of that, not vaccination status. Edit to add: feel good about downvoting critical thinking, ideologues.
  - xienze 5y ago
    > Vaccine isn't necessarily easy for everyone, and catching COVID isn't necessarily hard for everyone There seems to be this prevailing belief that Covid infection == near certain death, when that's just not the case, but try explaining that...
  - bena 5y ago
    That seems like the stupidest lottery to enter into however. Even people without an "underlying health condition" have died. And even those who haven't died are experiencing long term complications from having had COVID. So you can either hope you don't have a hard time with COVID if you catch it. Or you can drastically reduce your chances of having a hard time and of catching it all by just taking a couple minutes out of your day to get vaccinated. Sorry, while I do like to gamble in general, if the penalties include death and/or permanent disability, I'm going with the option that makes that less likely. Which is the vaccine.
    - VBprogrammer 5y ago
iamtheworstdev 5y ago
It's unachievable in the US. Not enough people willing to get vaccinated. The bar for herd immunity is predicted at 80% or higher if covid keeps mutating to become more infectious. Measles had a 95% herd immunity threshold so who knows where covid could finally land.
- giantg2 5y ago
  So far 55% or so have been fully vaccinated. 83 million, or 25% of the population, is estimated by the CDC to have been infected. I would guess we are getting fairly close to 70%, but it's hard to say what the overlap between those two numbers is. If it's really as contagious as they say, then it's only a matter of time before we hit 80%. The issue will then be the distribution by location and how long the protection lasts.
- akiselev 5y ago
  Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens known to man with an R0 between 10 and 15. Even with the delta variant, COVID doesn't seem as transmissible so the threshold should be closer to 80 than 95.
  - threatofrain 5y ago
    The overwhelming majority of children in the US receive the MMR jab either due to public school pressure or immigration policy. It is unlikely that COVID vaccination will ever reach the same levels, despite sufficient abundance of vaccine supply to play vaccine diplomacy around the world. Meanwhile we have Australia deploying the military to enforce acute lockdowns because they failed to secure enough vaccines early on.
    - giantg2 5y ago
      They are talking about mandatory vaccinations for some schools.
      - threatofrain 5y ago
ummonk 5y ago
We seem to be trying to "flatten the curve" and "slow the spread" to needlessly take extra long to get to the same final place - natural herd immunity.
- bena 5y ago
  Come on. It's because when we were trying to flatten the curve, there were far too many people who denied it was anything more serious than the flu and didn't take any precautions. Same with slowing the spread. People did not listen. Because they were "free critical thinkers who can reach their own conclusions thank you very much". And they were wrong. And now they've put us here.
  - xienze 5y ago
    > there were far too many people who denied it was anything more serious than the flu and didn't take any precautions. Well apparently quite a number of people must have taken precautions, because that's the explanation for why the flu has basically disappeared off the face of the earth.
    - bena 5y ago
      The flu is far less contagious than COVID. Even small measures affect the numbers.
      - xienze 5y ago
        Who knew after decades of administering flu vaccines that all it took to eradicate the flu was half-assedly wearing cotton face masks?
        bena 5y ago
        And more hand washing, and more distancing, etc. Because, like I said, the flu is far less contagious.
  - 5y ago
ekster 5y ago
Isn’t that what is happening? I was just in the US for a couple weeks (Portland, OR) and rules were minimal and optional everywhere. Not the kind of thing that would drive mental health issues, as best I could tell.
- notJim 5y ago
  That can't possibly be right, according to Fox News, Portland, OR is an authoritarian communist hellhole. Just glad you got out alive.
  - kbelder 5y ago
    It's a communist hellhole, but it's not authoritarian.
  - ekster 5y ago
    Portland has a lot of problems compared to the last time I was there five years ago, but it's not in quarantine lockdown or anything like that.

danuker 5y ago

I am stunned so few governments publish such "in the wild" data. The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected, not to count "confirmed" cases. For instance, it seems only 8.8% is confirmed (or 88k out of 1 million) [1] . Add that to the 69% vaccinated with at least one dose [2], and you get 77.8% accounted for, which is less than the 95% quoted. [1] - https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... [2] - https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

makapuf 5y ago
Remember this includes vaccinated persons
- danuker 5y ago
  Yep, just realized and edited.
- FabHK 5y ago
  Assuming the vaccination was successful in triggering the production of antibodies. It is unclear to me in what percentage of cases that is the case. Hong Kong requires 2 weeks quarantine even for vaccinated people entering, unless they have proof not only of vaccination, but of antibody count.
  - standardUser 5y ago
    The immune response from vaccines is generally far less variable than the immune response from fighting off an infection naturally.

MrBuddyCasino 5y ago

Simultaneously true: * it is clear everyone will get it * policy will be slow to adapt to that reality and continue strategy of containment

gpmcadam 5y ago
When you’ve ran an 18 month fear campaign its hard to get people to stop being scared
scotty79 5y ago
Now it begins the game of how many times will everyone get it, and every bit of immunity and slowing the spread helps so when we arrive at a variant that spreads as easily as chicken pox that is also accidentally as lethal as SARS, we will have vaccine for this specific variant delivered faster than people die.

mortehu 5y ago

I can't access the article, but is this a random sample or a convenience sample?

dirtyid 5y ago

So UK is what living with covid19 will look like for those in highly vaccinated western countries?

IfOnlyYouKnew 5y ago
Yes, but with better haircuts.
- tatersolid 5y ago
  Wait… who has the bad haircuts? The UK or the rest? Because as a rural-by-birth American who has travelled a bit, I’d say Berlin beats London or even urban USA in their awful haircut percentage by a wide margin. But nobody can top central Indiana, USA for sheer quantity of nasty-ass mullets with scraggly mustaches.
gpmcadam 5y ago
The OP mentions England, not the whole of the UK
- kcartlidge 5y ago
  They do, but similar results are being seen in the other nations of the UK.

stevesimmons 5y ago

The original ONS (Office for National Statistics) analysis is here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... Much more detail, more rigorous, primary source, and no pay wall. (@dang: maybe use this as the post's URL?)

criticaltinker 5y ago
Great source and includes the downloadable data, thanks for sharing. > While antibody positivity in the oldest age groups remains high, it decreased slightly in some regions and countries. This means that some people in these groups did not have enough antibodies to be detected in the test, not that they do not have any immune protection against the virus. I found that sentence intriguing, here is the link they recommend for more information to explain why people might still have immune protection even with low (undetectable) levels of antibodies [1]. [1] https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/04/28/antibodies-and-immunity-how-do-they-relate-to-one-another/ https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/04/28/antibodies-and-immunity-h...

Tarsul 5y ago

this data arguably shows that the choice really is between vaccination (+possibly weak infection) and infection. We can't hide from the virus. This doesn't mean that the only choice is opening up everything, but eventually... yes. Concious governments should first try to get more people vaccinated. Long covid is too frequent, otherwise. (400k have it in UK, see: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/01/almost-400000-have-had-long-covid-symptoms-year/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/01/almost-400000-ha... )

logifail 5y ago
> Long covid is too frequent, otherwise. Q: Is there something about this that we need to worry about particularly? I ask in the context of having had the Epstein-Barr virus in my late 30s and having been essentially knocked completely flat by it for the best part of a month, and not having recovered to full fitness for several months more. When I was a child, my Dad had shingles (apparently for the first time) in his late 40s, he was really quite poorly, that also took him months to get over. Endemic viruses already do this stuff, if you've even had a proper dose of seasonal flu you'll know what I'm taking about. Is there a reason (and non-anecdotal data...) to specifically worry about the long-term effects of C19 _more_ than all the other endemic viruses?

Animats 5y ago

Useful overview for the UK.[1] This is the Financial Times chart of cases and deaths by state and country, updated daily since early 2020. Things to notice: * UK cases spike. They go from 3 cases per 100K people in May to 71 cases per 100K in mid-July. That's the increased R0 of the Delta variant in action. Now they're declining rapidly, down to 39 cases per 100K people. Keep watching that graph; that shows herd immunity starting to take effect. * US cases are way up, too, but started later than in the UK. The US curve is still going up, following the UK curve, but about a month behind. That's why medical authorities are saying the next two months will be really bad in the US. * The US has about the same case rate as Tunisia, but a far lower death rate. Without good medical care, this is a killer disease. [1] https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=tun&areas=nam&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usla&areasRegional=usnv&areasRegional=usar&areasRegional=usks&areasRegional=usmo&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=cases https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&are...

phreeza 5y ago

Amazing to see that the UK has >90% positive vaccine sentiment, and close to 90% with at least one dose of vaccines now. Am I reading that right? How did they manage to avoid the politicization of the issue that is keeping people from getting the shot in other Western countries?

scotty79 5y ago
They had Wakefield creating antivaxxers and then they had a journalist that got to the bottom of his BS. This expose was highly publicised so people got through into their heads that antivaxx is BS. Wakefield then ran away to US and Brits lived happily ever after ... till Brexit. At least that's what's postulated here https://youtu.be/8BIcAZxFfrc https://youtu.be/8BIcAZxFfrc
kcartlidge 5y ago
There were a few things that strike me (I'm British) as being quite relevant. The first is that from very early on the PM was flanked by medical professionals who appeared to be apolitical and were considered by all 'sides' on the vaccine debate to be honest (even if their opinions were sometimes contentious). That credibility meant they were listened to. The second is that the NHS is almost a religion over here - this contributes to the medical profession being extremely well trusted. In many places in the world the frontline medical staff are trusted but the system isn't. We're lucky here in that largely both aspects retain their respect. Note that I'm not commenting on other nations health systems or their population's opinion of it. We (the UK) are not unique in having reasonable healthcare; this is more about our high perception of the system providing it. Finally, as a society we are very compliant, and also with the not-for-profit AZ vaccine there was a certain feeling of a national champion who was also helping to save the world.
hifly 5y ago
I think the number is more like 50 odd percent of the population? I think the 90% number is of some limited subset like "adults who have received at least shot"?
- phreeza 5y ago

74d-fe6-2c6 5y ago

That plus ... - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01442-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01442-9 - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01557-z https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01557-z ... actually implies that we do not need widespread vaccination campaigns. But guess what stocks the members of your government have in their depot and you bet they make sure you get your jab and the booster and the update and another booster ... This is biggest scam in the history of the earth.