7 ms·
Demographic leveling or collapse is in a category I've heard called "demand limits to growth." Everyone always thinks about supply limits, with some making dir
by api 5y ago
Demographic leveling or collapse is in a category I've heard called "demand limits to growth."
Everyone always thinks about supply limits, with some making dire Malthusian prophecies of what happens if we exhaust our resources with runaway growth. I've seen surprisingly little discussion of demand limits.
Other possible sources of demand limits include: satiation (people just feeling satisfied and not wanting much more), diminishing marginal utility of wealth, diminishing impact of new technologies (compare the next CPU density node to jet aircraft or antibiotics), consolidation of functionality into fewer more versatile products (e.g. computers and smart phones eating TVs, tape decks, radios, book shelves, CD collections, etc.), cultural shifts toward simplicity, replacement of complex labor-intensive technology with simple low-maintenance technology (e.g. EVs have 1/10th the moving parts of typical ICE cars), etc.
The eternal growth assumption assumes both infinite supply and infinite demand.
- TeMPOraL 5y agoAs a civilization, we are good at inducing demand, though. For example: > satiation (people just feeling satisfied and not wanting much more) Advertising industry literally exists to mitigate this problem. I don't envision it hitting a limit any time soon. > cultural shifts toward simplicity This has not happened yet. Our existing "trends" for simplicity and minimalism are just thinly-veiled attempts to get people to buy more shit they don't need (like "simpler" items, to replace the perfectly fine items they already have, or books and videos and conference tickets of minimalism thought leaders). > replacement of complex labor-intensive technology with simple low-maintenance technology (e.g. EVs have 1/10th the moving parts of typical ICE cars) I don't believe this is stable state. EVs are more reliable because they're new. They haven't gone through enough value engineering cycles. The market has a structural incentive to optimize away all quality, until the result is barely fit for advertised function - so I expect that once EVs start dominating, they'll also start breaking at the rate people are used to with ICE cars, because manufacturers will optimize away spare capacity and surplus material of every component. I think the risk is still dominated by the supply side.
- nine_k 5y agoPeople demonstrate more and more indifference and sometimes outright hostility to ads that offer what they think they don't need. The genuinely useful part of the ad industry is connecting those who need stuff to suppliers of such stuff, that is, discovery.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- nine_k 5y agoICE cars are inherently more complex than EV cars, much like a Swiss army knife is inherently more complex than a kitchen knife. If EVs quality will degrade to the quality of current ICE cars, that would mean that production if EV cars will use less resources, not more. It will not have to repeat the ICEs' complexity. But frankly popular EV cars like Tesla are often considered sub-par compared to modern ICE cars with regard of build quality. They are used despite these shortcomings, and will actually need to rise tp the quality level of e.g. ICE Toyota cars.
- jay_kyburz 5y agoNobody is going to open up and fix EV's in the near future. When they break down people will be expected to just go buy a new one. Especially if they are much cheaper to produce and buy. If you can buy a car for 3-5k nobody is going to fix them.
- warlog 5y agoYou will own nothing and be happy.
- tremon 5y agoBy all means, show me a new car with a list price of 3-5k. Current ICE cars already cost 10x that amount, and EV cars are generally even more expensive. On what basis do you expect new cars to ever cost 3-5k? That's the range of an electric bicycle, not a car.
- pydry 5y agoWealth inequality also exhibits a form of demand limit. Not that there's no demand per se but if there's no spare cash to back it up...
- imtringued 5y agoAt some point people can't come up with enough ideas to spend it all even if you forced them.
- imtringued 5y agoPretty much every aging country is seeing the demand side of their economy die. I'd say education increases the minimum standard of living that people expect. If having more children threatens that standard of living they will refuse to have them.