7 ms·

While not directly tied to economic growth, one factor this article leaves out is that global human population growth could possibly peak within our lifetime (a

While not directly tied to economic growth, one factor this article leaves out is that global human population growth could possibly peak within our lifetime (although more likely around 2100) [1]. In the last 60 years, total fertility rate has dropped from 5 to 2.5 [2], and most industrialized nations are hovering right around replacement rate of 2.1 or actively shrinking (Japan, 1.4, Germany, 1.6). Albeit during COVID, the 2020 TFR in the United States was only 1.64, and has declined for the last four years in a row [3]. With technology, I'd still expect the overall "size of the economy" to grow, but it will be interesting to see how growth is affected by substantial changes in demography that play out over the next 100-200 years (if only I could stick around to watch!). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/us/us-birthrate-falls-covid.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/us/us-birthrate-falls-cov...

ronlobo 5y ago
I agree. The book "Factfulness" by Hans Rosling is an excellent read about the topic. Yes, growth in economy and population can go on and will likely result in an S-bend curve in the distant future.
- throw0101a 5y ago
  Hans Rosling's presentation "Don't Panic" (produced by the BBC) is pretty good: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E It's an hour long; really interesting.
api 5y ago
Demographic leveling or collapse is in a category I've heard called "demand limits to growth." Everyone always thinks about supply limits, with some making dire Malthusian prophecies of what happens if we exhaust our resources with runaway growth. I've seen surprisingly little discussion of demand limits. Other possible sources of demand limits include: satiation (people just feeling satisfied and not wanting much more), diminishing marginal utility of wealth, diminishing impact of new technologies (compare the next CPU density node to jet aircraft or antibiotics), consolidation of functionality into fewer more versatile products (e.g. computers and smart phones eating TVs, tape decks, radios, book shelves, CD collections, etc.), cultural shifts toward simplicity, replacement of complex labor-intensive technology with simple low-maintenance technology (e.g. EVs have 1/10th the moving parts of typical ICE cars), etc. The eternal growth assumption assumes both infinite supply and infinite demand.
- TeMPOraL 5y ago
  As a civilization, we are good at inducing demand, though. For example: > satiation (people just feeling satisfied and not wanting much more) Advertising industry literally exists to mitigate this problem. I don't envision it hitting a limit any time soon. > cultural shifts toward simplicity This has not happened yet. Our existing "trends" for simplicity and minimalism are just thinly-veiled attempts to get people to buy more shit they don't need (like "simpler" items, to replace the perfectly fine items they already have, or books and videos and conference tickets of minimalism thought leaders). > replacement of complex labor-intensive technology with simple low-maintenance technology (e.g. EVs have 1/10th the moving parts of typical ICE cars) I don't believe this is stable state. EVs are more reliable because they're new. They haven't gone through enough value engineering cycles. The market has a structural incentive to optimize away all quality, until the result is barely fit for advertised function - so I expect that once EVs start dominating, they'll also start breaking at the rate people are used to with ICE cars, because manufacturers will optimize away spare capacity and surplus material of every component. I think the risk is still dominated by the supply side.
  - nine_k 5y ago
    People demonstrate more and more indifference and sometimes outright hostility to ads that offer what they think they don't need. The genuinely useful part of the ad industry is connecting those who need stuff to suppliers of such stuff, that is, discovery.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - nine_k 5y ago
    ICE cars are inherently more complex than EV cars, much like a Swiss army knife is inherently more complex than a kitchen knife. If EVs quality will degrade to the quality of current ICE cars, that would mean that production if EV cars will use less resources, not more. It will not have to repeat the ICEs' complexity. But frankly popular EV cars like Tesla are often considered sub-par compared to modern ICE cars with regard of build quality. They are used despite these shortcomings, and will actually need to rise tp the quality level of e.g. ICE Toyota cars.

ronlobo 5y ago

I agree. The book "Factfulness" by Hans Rosling is an excellent read about the topic. Yes, growth in economy and population can go on and will likely result in an S-bend curve in the distant future.

throw0101a 5y ago
Hans Rosling's presentation "Don't Panic" (produced by the BBC) is pretty good: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E It's an hour long; really interesting.

api 5y ago

Demographic leveling or collapse is in a category I've heard called "demand limits to growth." Everyone always thinks about supply limits, with some making dire Malthusian prophecies of what happens if we exhaust our resources with runaway growth. I've seen surprisingly little discussion of demand limits. Other possible sources of demand limits include: satiation (people just feeling satisfied and not wanting much more), diminishing marginal utility of wealth, diminishing impact of new technologies (compare the next CPU density node to jet aircraft or antibiotics), consolidation of functionality into fewer more versatile products (e.g. computers and smart phones eating TVs, tape decks, radios, book shelves, CD collections, etc.), cultural shifts toward simplicity, replacement of complex labor-intensive technology with simple low-maintenance technology (e.g. EVs have 1/10th the moving parts of typical ICE cars), etc. The eternal growth assumption assumes both infinite supply and infinite demand.

TeMPOraL 5y ago
As a civilization, we are good at inducing demand, though. For example: > satiation (people just feeling satisfied and not wanting much more) Advertising industry literally exists to mitigate this problem. I don't envision it hitting a limit any time soon. > cultural shifts toward simplicity This has not happened yet. Our existing "trends" for simplicity and minimalism are just thinly-veiled attempts to get people to buy more shit they don't need (like "simpler" items, to replace the perfectly fine items they already have, or books and videos and conference tickets of minimalism thought leaders). > replacement of complex labor-intensive technology with simple low-maintenance technology (e.g. EVs have 1/10th the moving parts of typical ICE cars) I don't believe this is stable state. EVs are more reliable because they're new. They haven't gone through enough value engineering cycles. The market has a structural incentive to optimize away all quality, until the result is barely fit for advertised function - so I expect that once EVs start dominating, they'll also start breaking at the rate people are used to with ICE cars, because manufacturers will optimize away spare capacity and surplus material of every component. I think the risk is still dominated by the supply side.
- nine_k 5y ago
  People demonstrate more and more indifference and sometimes outright hostility to ads that offer what they think they don't need. The genuinely useful part of the ad industry is connecting those who need stuff to suppliers of such stuff, that is, discovery.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- nine_k 5y ago
  ICE cars are inherently more complex than EV cars, much like a Swiss army knife is inherently more complex than a kitchen knife. If EVs quality will degrade to the quality of current ICE cars, that would mean that production if EV cars will use less resources, not more. It will not have to repeat the ICEs' complexity. But frankly popular EV cars like Tesla are often considered sub-par compared to modern ICE cars with regard of build quality. They are used despite these shortcomings, and will actually need to rise tp the quality level of e.g. ICE Toyota cars.