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The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub.

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

lumost 5y ago
There are many coincidences and spurious correlations in the world. It's informative to propose a falsifiable mechanism behind a correlation which can be tested independently. I could reframe your hypothesis in a falsifiable way such as "perhaps ending lockdowns in the UK caused individuals to spend more time outdoors or in open air restaurants rather than smaller closed doors activities such as dinner parties", or "perhaps ending lockdowns in the UK caused people to spend more time in other locations rather than large shared ventilation apartment complexes".
- jjgreen 5y ago
  I make no hypothesis, simply note the order in which things happened (in England at least) as requested by the parent.
shawabawa3 5y ago
The drop actually started before freedom day. There's usually about a 2 week period between "cause" and "effect" in terms of cases anyway. It's much more likely to have peaked because of Euro finals on 11th July and school holidays starting on 15th July
GuB-42 5y ago
It has to be a coincidence. It happened almost the exact day, maybe even a little earlier. It should take about a week to start seeing the effect of a change in policy. From incubation time to testing to results. Usually, we count two weeks to be sure.
- thinkingemote 5y ago
  The day restrictions were lifted was itself postponed from the previous month. Modelling was used to predict the day. It could be coincidence but this date was planned and intentional.
- coding123 5y ago
  Also people ditch the mask when they are "close enough" to the day. I saw the masks drop as early as a month before that date. I really don't think 100% of the shoppers in my grocery stores were vaccinated.
mjw1007 5y ago
More likely the causality goes the other way: if the models hadn't predicted (as they did) that cases would peak around that time, "freedom day" would have been scheduled for later.
- jtbayly 5y ago
  Models predicted this? Link, please. From this article: > “Something strange is happening in Britain,” the Washington Post declared this week. “COVID cases are plummeting instead of soaring.” A few weeks ago, when the country’s new daily-case total was around 60,000, the prominent British epidemiologist and government adviser Neil Ferguson declared that a rise to 100,000 a day was inevitable, and that 200,000 a day was possible. The country is now at 27,000 and falling.
  - mjw1007 5y ago
    Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001174/S1304_LSHTM_Updated_roadmap_assessment_prior_to_delayed_step_4.2__7_July_2021__1_.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... That's showing hospitalisations rather than cases, and most scenarios show the peak in early August. Hospitalisations lag cases, and it looks like early August will be right: we haven't seen the peak yet.
    - jtbayly 5y ago
      https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?time=2021-04-12..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions... Peak was several days ago.
      - mjw1007 5y ago
        It's bit early to be sure yet (the UK fall in cases has slowed greatly in the last week), but if that turns out to be true "the models predicted that cases would peak around that time" would still be OK for the purposes of this thread: the point is that it's unsurprising that cases began to fall within a week or two of "freedom day".

The collapse (unexpected by almost everyone) happened after "freedom day", when masks were no longer mandatory and it became legal to stand at the bar in a pub. Probably co-incidence.

lumost 5y ago

There are many coincidences and spurious correlations in the world. It's informative to propose a falsifiable mechanism behind a correlation which can be tested independently. I could reframe your hypothesis in a falsifiable way such as "perhaps ending lockdowns in the UK caused individuals to spend more time outdoors or in open air restaurants rather than smaller closed doors activities such as dinner parties", or "perhaps ending lockdowns in the UK caused people to spend more time in other locations rather than large shared ventilation apartment complexes".

jjgreen 5y ago
I make no hypothesis, simply note the order in which things happened (in England at least) as requested by the parent.

shawabawa3 5y ago

The drop actually started before freedom day. There's usually about a 2 week period between "cause" and "effect" in terms of cases anyway. It's much more likely to have peaked because of Euro finals on 11th July and school holidays starting on 15th July

GuB-42 5y ago

It has to be a coincidence. It happened almost the exact day, maybe even a little earlier. It should take about a week to start seeing the effect of a change in policy. From incubation time to testing to results. Usually, we count two weeks to be sure.

thinkingemote 5y ago
The day restrictions were lifted was itself postponed from the previous month. Modelling was used to predict the day. It could be coincidence but this date was planned and intentional.
coding123 5y ago
Also people ditch the mask when they are "close enough" to the day. I saw the masks drop as early as a month before that date. I really don't think 100% of the shoppers in my grocery stores were vaccinated.

mjw1007 5y ago

More likely the causality goes the other way: if the models hadn't predicted (as they did) that cases would peak around that time, "freedom day" would have been scheduled for later.

jtbayly 5y ago
Models predicted this? Link, please. From this article: > “Something strange is happening in Britain,” the Washington Post declared this week. “COVID cases are plummeting instead of soaring.” A few weeks ago, when the country’s new daily-case total was around 60,000, the prominent British epidemiologist and government adviser Neil Ferguson declared that a rise to 100,000 a day was inevitable, and that 200,000 a day was possible. The country is now at 27,000 and falling.
- mjw1007 5y ago
  Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001174/S1304_LSHTM_Updated_roadmap_assessment_prior_to_delayed_step_4.2__7_July_2021__1_.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... That's showing hospitalisations rather than cases, and most scenarios show the peak in early August. Hospitalisations lag cases, and it looks like early August will be right: we haven't seen the peak yet.
  - jtbayly 5y ago
    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?time=2021-04-12..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions... Peak was several days ago.
    - mjw1007 5y ago
      It's bit early to be sure yet (the UK fall in cases has slowed greatly in the last week), but if that turns out to be true "the models predicted that cases would peak around that time" would still be OK for the purposes of this thread: the point is that it's unsurprising that cases began to fall within a week or two of "freedom day".