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Most People Don't Understand How Bad Climate Change Already Is
- kybernetyk 5y ago> We Have Only Eight Years Left Been hearing this in some form since the early 90s.
- generalizations 5y agoOr even the 80s, IIRC
- zwieback 5y ago70s for me, nuclear destruction, overpopulation, etc.
- spiderice 5y agoIf you keep repeating "8 years left" every year then eventually you'll be right. And that's when you get to say "I told you so"
- ben_w 5y agoThe calls to action I’ve heard since the early 90s were “we should do something in the unspecified near term” and “8 of the 10 hottest years on record were in the last ten years”. Hmm… I wonder in how many years the statement “8 of the 10 hottest years on record were in the last ten years” was true? I was in the UK, but this could be calculated for any locality.
- einpoklum 5y agoMillenarian deadlines aside - temperatures are rising, and average annual/monthly temperature records are being broken again and again recently. I don't think you saw this kind of a heat wave in Siberia in the 1990s: https://eos.org/articles/siberian-heat-wave-nearly-impossible-without-human-influence https://eos.org/articles/siberian-heat-wave-nearly-impossibl...
- MattGaiser 5y agoI suspect it was closer to: 1990: We have 8 years left to avoid global warming. -- Already happened. 2000: We have 8 years left to prevent the corals from bleaching. -- Already happened. 2010: We have 8 years left to prevent farms from being permanently scorched. -- In progress.
- Causality1 5y agoWe Have Only Eight Years Left Can we stop this already please? Incalculable damage has been done to the cause by people pretending there exists a hard deadline and then later the deniers come in and say "ha where is your apocalypse?" Also the title needs to match the article title, in accordance with HN posting guidelines.
- yeuxardents 5y agoI see it in older folks. They dont care at all about any of it because they have literally been told since the 60/70s that theres only X more years before Y happens, and every single time the date passes and the dire prognostication does not occur. Its crisis fatigue
- cogman10 5y agoWell, the problem is the dire prognostications, particularly as of late, HAVE been occurring. Flooding, extreme weather, excess hurricanes, super droughts, formerly once every 100 year events have been happening nearly yearly. The issue is it's now somewhat normalized. The other issue is it's only going to get more extreme. Don't buy beachfront property.
- nanis 5y ago> Don't buy beachfront property. I've been waiting for prime beachfront bargains for almost 30 years now.
- danbrooks 5y agoI agree that we should cut greenhouse gas emissions - but this certainly feels alarmist.
- colechristensen 5y agoThis doomsday crap has to stop. Significant climate change is inevitable, in essence it has already happened and the future increases are already locked in. "let's halt carbon emissions in a few months" isn't going to happen. "let's halt carbon emissions in a few years" isn't going to happen. It also wouldn't end up making a terrific amount of difference. Some places which are nice and habitable are going to be uninhabitable (or underwater) in 100 years. Some places which are uninhabitable are going to become habitable. Some species are going to die out, there will be wars, famines, and suffering... just as there always has been. Life isn't a constant slow march upwards towards prosperity, it is messy. There is change, there always has been change and there always will be. There might be natural feedback systems that make a big dent in the negative outcomes and there might be ways that humans can promote these (if the ice caps melt and it becomes warm in the polar regions, we might get a carpet of freshwater plants covering the oceans again which is a tremendous carbon sink, likewise we might be able to fertilize barren ocean regions to trigger algal blooms which will sink carbon into ocean depths). But... it's already done. It probably won't be as good or as bad as some people think, humans will adapt and global ecology will adapt. The attitude needs to be more "how do we make this best of what's to come?" instead of "the end is near!" but people get off on doomsday.
- websites2023 5y ago>Life isn't a constant slow march upwards towards prosperity, it is messy. There is change, there always has been change and there always will be. This is really, really hard to understand for people today because the post-cold-war era, in the west, has been one of unprecedented stability and prosperity. That is ending, and what is happening is a reversion to the mean that looks a lot like catastrophe.
- TaylorAlexander 5y ago> But… it’s already done. Actually the emissions and environmental damage are ongoing, and we need to stop doing them or the end result will be much worse. > there will be wars, famines, and suffering Personally I think we should change our behavior that will lead to wars, famines, and suffering.
- woah 5y ago> Today, in 2021, the Earth is already hotter than it has ever been. What?
- orthoxerox 5y agoYeah, this is a bullshit claim. There's a chart or Wikipedia (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/All_palaeotemps.svg https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/All_pala...) that shows this is not remotely the case.
- chrbutler 5y agoActually, that's a great catch. I should have written, "The inhabited Earth." I'll edit that.
- antisthenes 5y agoEocene Earth was inhabited as well. Maybe Earth with modern humans or Earth with a developed civilization.
- mym1990 5y agoCan global warming be though of as the planets way to fight what it thinks is an infection? Kind of like what fevers do for humans? Is that a big stretch?
- nathanaldensr 5y agoI don't know why this anthropomorphism of the earth is so popular. The earth is not sentient, nor is it alive. It doesn't have "an infection."
- nixpulvis 5y agoRather than argue about dates and years, could we talk about the ways we are truly going to overcome this? I doubt a community which prides itself on intelligence and research really has nothing better to say than "where's your apocalypse now?" I for one desperately want to start hearing actionable plans for carbon (or climate) pricing. Also, while I understand the impact I have as an individual is limited, I also am deeply aware of the fact that needed systemic changes will have an impact on me. Has anyone tried to summarize what we should expect life to look like during and after the needed changes? This will be the path to acceptance, which is somewhat of a prerequisite for policy change in a democracy. Food for thought, obviously somewhat redundant.
- MattGaiser 5y agoThe problem is that timelines are central to the discussion. If we have 8 years, we are limited to existing technology for the most part and geological/biological solutions will be of limited use. If we have 800 years, we can use more trees and bet more future technology.
- nixpulvis 5y agoHmmmm, I mean the point is that it's urgent. I think we should all be able to agree on that by now. The weather is to the point it's changing and weather is a far more localized phenomenon. At the very least we shouldn't be making matters worse by, for example, inventing stupid new ways of wasting precious energy. Conservationism needs to be the new norm, and we can take new technologies that help as the are available. However, much of the work will need to be on the policy side, as unfortunate as that may be to us technologists.
- doingtheiroming 5y ago$600T costs of climate change by 2100. Assuming current global GDP of $90T (which itself makes the claim that global wealth amount to $300T today questionable), and average global growth across that time of 2%, global GDP will be something like $450T annually. Sounds manageable.
- TaylorAlexander 5y agoAlso millions of lives in poorer countries. But sure… “manageable”. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/climate/bangladesh-floods.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/climate/bangladesh-floods...
- chrbutler 5y agoJust because you can pay for the cleanup doesn't make it not a disaster.
- graddrisrp 5y agoThe only sure thing is that most of these doom prediction happen to be false. People writing this kinda things seem to think we can afford reducing the growth society. The sad reality is that if we don't all grow we will suffer way more than what climate change will bring. Grow up, stop living like peter pan and work to find proper solution instead of complaining.
- TazeTSchnitzel 5y agoThe end of the growth society is only a disaster if we keep the current economic system unchanged. A world is possible which does not rely on unending growth.
- graddrisrp 5y agoAgreed but we then need to accept to loose most of our modern day comfort, going back to 40years expectancy, most of the population dies ... which is probably not what we should aim for. Nature works like the rabbit and fox differential model. The only way for the fox, aka we need to try to grow as long as possible otherwise most of us will die brutally
- jacobr1 5y agoIt is a plausible that a larger, richer society can: * more rapidly improve its technology, both to reduce energy use and to reduce emissions * afford to pay for mitigations of the problems that do occur * can consider larger projects like geoengineering * afford to slow its growth, it is easier to avoid the need for future growth when you are already wealthy * better make us of economies of scale to improve per-person efficiencies * specialize in the tasks required to managed a higher climate variance, energy production diverse and more rapidly changing world
- corinroyal 5y agoSays who? There are plenty of different ways to order production without leaving it in the hands of unaccountable sociopaths. The options aren't extractive capitalism or the stone age. Endless growth isn't inevitable, or even possible.
- Zelphyr 5y agothat’s the sort of selfish glutton bully of a nation we are The author just alienated all the people he is trying to convince.
- satysin 5y agoI totally agree with the article but god do I hate when people say "we only have N years left!" as it is something for all the climate change deniers to focus on and attack to discount the points made so the conversation just focuses on some stupid number that is nothing of real value and nothing moves forward. We get stuck in this dumb loop. The reality is we're already too fucking late. We should have been doing things 50 years ago but we didn't and so the future is already written. 5 years. 10 years. 20 years. 50 years. 100 years. It is all fucked. From all the things I have seen and read from experts over the past ten or so years there isn't really anything we can actually do so that things are less fucked in our lifetimes. And probably in the lifetime of people born just today. So actions we take are for the benefit of people who do not even exist yet and it seems pretty much impossible to get people to care about the future of the human race if it means making life 'more difficult' now and probably for the rest of their lives. The same has been true, probably, for all of human history but certainly so in the past 50 years. Seems the vast majority didn't really give a shit 50 years ago or 40 years ago or ... as basically fuck all has been done outside of token gestures and bullshit targets that there is no real penalty if you fail to meet because, after all, who gives a fuck about the future when you can have a few more quarters of exponential growth for share holders and pay a bit to "offset" your carbon footprint.
- baobabKoodaa 5y agoYou're describing people as if they are selfish and don't care about the future of humanity. That's not what this is. This is a tragedy of the commons. Virtually no single person has the power to combat climate change. If I could make a meaningful difference, I would happily trade my comfortable existence to save the planet. But I can't. Nothing I do will make a difference. So why should I reduce my carbon foot print or make any other sacrifice, when the world will be just the same with or without my sacrifice? And there you go, a few billion people thinking like me and suddenly this group has real (negative) impact.
- satysin 5y agoYes. A person isn’t really selfish and will almost always make sacrifices to be better. But people as a whole are selfish for exactly the reasons you said. When I say people I don’t mean an individual person.
- doggodaddo78 5y agoIt's a climate change emergency. It needs oceanic bio CCS and FF curtailment now.
- unchocked 5y agoIt's bad. It's really bad. And it's already here. So we need to talk about minimizing the forcing and the effects, and stop pretending like we are going to somehow avoid catastrophe. That means driving emissions toward zero, and carbon removal, and solar geoengineering, and adaptation. All of the above. Climate change is already happening and we're still way behind the curve.
- FourthProtocol 5y agoMany comments here take issue with previous warnings that haven't materialized, that dealines are missed/bad. It sounds like we're trying hard to not do anything because those naughty people in the '60s and'70s cried wolf and there was no wolf. Well, I'm one of those 70's people. Turned 51 this year. And I try. I have a BMW I hardly ever drive because I bought an electric-assist cargo bike. I use that bike for the school run (~50km per day). I do the grocery shopping with it. I take the recyclable trash to the recycling yard, about 7km away. There are some other things, like my herb garden, reducing the numbers of electric items in the house, eating less meat (this one is hard but we're winning slowly). Train when we go on vacation. We can criticise the old folk, call foul on the scare tactics being used on us these days... ...or we can take it on board and start doing the little things. And OMG imagine, we could maybe even stop looking for ways to criticize the government and those people from long ago, cut out the negativity, and stop making fun of Prius drivers. Are we going to fix this or what?
- jacobr1 5y agoOne of the problems that the article started to articulate, but didn't fully cover is that even if everyone on the planet did similar things in the personal lives ... it is not enough. Energy use and emissions are all about industry. To a certain extent one can patronize low-carbon emissions businesses, but most of those are either low carbon to begin with (often with high margins) or are using bullshit offsets. Really that only things that can reduce emissions are regulations & taxes or new technologies. And maybe geoengineering, but that is speculative enough to not enter serious policy debates. Applied R&D is incentived very heavily via taxes, so we don't need to mess around there too much. Basic research should be better funded though. Probably the best proposals we've seen are the various forms of cap & trade for domestic industry or treaty partners adopting a common market, with tariffs for foreign production outside of cap&trade regime. The EU's "Fit for 55" is the only tangible step in this direction I've seen.
- FourthProtocol 5y agoSo it's better to just throw up or hands and do nothing? If what I do isn't enough, surely it contributes something, right? If we all only ever think of this as someone else's problem, nothing will change. The guy that passes legislation to fix this also has trash to recycle, ideally has an EV, and hopefully a son or daughter that looks up to the likes of Greta Thunberg... The comments here sound so fatalist. It disappeared off the home page really fast too which suggests most don't want to face climate change. Which is a shame. Our legacy could be amazing. But, for example, lauding Bezos for his ego trip to space seems more to people's tastes than to object to the planet-destroying consumer culture his company promotes. This is right up there with the absurdity of colonising Mars when people are still starving on earth.
- gmuslera 5y agoSometimes, like with rabies, once you start to get visible symptoms it is already to late to do something. With coronavirus we saw what it means to not take action in something that is exponential, just because your reaction time and how broad it should be doesn't follow the progress of the disease, that it is already more severe than what your charts show. What is left to know is if we are already falling downhill or this was just a bad dice roll in the extreme weather lottery. But it seems to be the former with the changes in the polar vortex.
- sofixa 5y agoReally minor nitpick - high speed rail is faster than airplanes for short to medium distances if you include ( as you should) getting to an airport ( usually farther away from where people live), the security theatre there, and the same at arrival. ( Not to mention much more comfortable, eco-friendly, etc.)
- BizarroLand 5y agoMy two cents is that the people you're screaming at haven't left their 25 mile residential / geographical area for more than a few days in the last 30 years. They only have their own worldview to look at. They'll get serious about climate change when their house is on fire and not a moment sooner. The only solution is to force a solution from up-high, the way JFK did with the moon race.
- marbu 5y agoOn the one hand I understand that conveying this as an average temperature difference makes the value more understandable, but it also makes some people miss the point that this is mostly about heat capture. And that this energy increase in will be noticed in many different ways. Moreover the process amplifies itself (eg. when some part of glacier melts, this area no longer reflects sunlight back into atmosphere, but the dark water absorbs most of this, which leads to even faster heat absorption).
- GaryTang 5y agoWhen the climate change movement starts to hold China more accountable, it will gain more steam.
- Proven 5y agoHow could they - CCP is climatists' natural ally against free market capitalism!
- ttonkytonk 5y agoFrom Plato's Republic, Book Two: (...)Yes, I said, now I understand: the question which you would have me consider is, not only how a State, but how a luxurious State is created; and possibly there is no harm in this, for in such a State we shall be more likely to see how justice and injustice originate. In my opinion the true and healthy constitution of the State is the one which I have described. But if you wish also to see a State at fever-heat, I have no objection. For I suspect that many will not be satisfied with the simpler way of life. They will be for adding sofas, and tables, and other furniture; also dainties, and perfumes, and incense, and courtesans, and cakes, all these not of one sort only, but in every variety; we must go beyond the necessaries of which I was at first speaking, such as houses, and clothes, and shoes: the arts of the painter and the embroiderer will have to be set in motion, and gold and ivory and all sorts of materials must be procured. True, he said. Then we must enlarge our borders; for the original healthy State is no longer sufficient. Now will the city have to fill and swell with a multitude of callings which are not required by any natural want; such as the whole tribe of hunters and actors, of whom one large class have to do with forms and colours; another will be the votaries of music—poets and their attendant train of rhapsodists, players, dancers, contractors; also makers of divers kinds of articles, including women's dresses. And we shall want more servants. Will not tutors be also in request, and nurses wet and dry, tirewomen and barbers, as well as confectioners and cooks; and swineherds, too, who were not needed and therefore had no place in the former edition of our State, but are needed now? They must not be forgotten: and there will be animals of many other kinds, if people eat them. Certainly. And living in this way we shall have much greater need of physicians than before? Much greater. And the country which was enough to support the original inhabitants will be too small now, and not enough? Quite true. Then a slice of our neighbours' land will be wanted by us for pasture and tillage, and they will want a slice of ours, if, like ourselves, they exceed the limit of necessity, and give themselves up to the unlimited accumulation of wealth? That, Socrates, will be inevitable. And so we shall go to war, Glaucon. Shall we not? Most certainly, he replied. Then without determining as yet whether war does good or harm, thus much we may affirm, that now we have discovered war to be derived from causes which are also the causes of almost all the evils in States, private as well as public.(...)
- stmfreak 5y agoWow, this guy has drunk all the koolaid.