12 ms·
Tesla 2Q 2021 Quarterly Result
- TekMol 5y agoRevenue doubled year over year. Anything else that stands out? Are there other examples of big tech companies that doubled their revenue over the last year?
- brianwawok 5y agoRegulatory credits down. Critics have continued to say Tesla loses money if not for regulatory credits, so seeing those shrink while still growing is strong.
- nixass 5y agoTesla is big tech company? What tech company are you comparing Tesla against? People, get some perspective. It's easy to grow from 0.5 to 1 (wow, double) than from 500 to 1000
- new_realist 5y agoComparing revenue to a prior quarter when their factory was shutdown due to a pandemic is a little disingenuous. Look at “same store” sales (same market, like China or Europe) over time for the real growth story.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoTheir market share in China keeps increasing. Europe market shares are stagnating because they don't have local production capacity (Berlin plant is coming online later this year). They had to export MIC cars to Europe only to maintain some sales. US demand is off the charts and it makes no sense to sell US cars in Europe if the US market wants them now (especially as the US market is extremely tight). You can use sales as an indicator of success if they are still production constrained. Read the report, it's well explained.
- yawaworht1978 5y agoMore vehicle sales, less cash funds, more superchargers, looks like the explosive growth came to a halt. Btw where are all the announced vehicles that were supposed to be released after the model 3?
- brianwawok 5y agoThey are supply constrained until the Texas factory opens. Literally a 3-6 month wait if you go order one today. With Texas open they are on track to double sales if demand stays strong. Cybertruck comes next after Texas is pumping out 500k units a year, and they have the next battery pack ready to scale. My guess is summer-fall 2022 by the slow news on the topic.
- oblio 5y agoHow many factories do they have and how many do they plan to open? Texas, Berlin, something in China? Also, do we have a time frame for all of them? I'm trying to figure out how many vehicles they'd expect to sell per year in 5-10 years. Plus, the really interesting challenge, I wonder if they can do it: could they make a cheap compact car for ~20-25k?
- sovreign 5y agoElon mentioned that they are targeting 20 million vehicles (per year) by 2030. See the Battery Day presentation for more context.
- opinion-is-bad 5y agoThe fact that cheap sedans have such a low profit share in the industry, and already get great mileage, probably means that will be one of the last ICE segments to get eroded.
- servercobra 5y agoElon already promised a ~$25k "Model 2" car within 3 years about a year ago, and the icon at Battery Day made it look like a compact car. Though with Elon-time maybe tack on another year.
- samfisher83 5y agoMade over a billion in profit, and margins are close to 25% which are great.
- new_realist 5y agoOperating margin is 11%. It’s the first time Tesla has been GAAP profitable without regulatory credit sales (pollution credits that delay other automakers’ EV programs) included, which is significant. They never should have sold a single pollution credit; that’s a violation of their supposed mission statement. Every Tesla you buy allows a big polluting gas guzzler to be sold elsewhere, so there’s no environmental benefit.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago>They never should have sold a single pollution credit; that’s a violation of their supposed mission statement. Every Tesla you buy allows a big polluting gas guzzler to be sold elsewhere, so there’s no environmental benefit. These credits allowed Tesla to build the factories that are now pumping out EVs. If they had not sold these credits, the other manufacturers would sold less ICE, and without a successful EV markers to convince politicians that EV are viable, ICE makers would have proved to regulators that penalties are killing jobs and hurting the economy... for nothing. Credits would have been canceled and we would have more big polluting gas guzzlers around a handful of aging Tesla roadsters for billionaires.
- xeromal 5y agoHard to perform the mission if you go out of business.
- Someone1234 5y agoThis may be an overly naive take on my behalf, but if it was 25% on a Model 3 specifically that means each one costs them $30K~ to build at a $40K price (and frankly 25% is likely too optimistic for their lowest margin vehicle). That makes me think we're many, many years away from seeing $25K~ EVs. You can cut some things off of the Model 3, but battery reduction in particular is a headache since you risk damaging your reputation/EV's reputations if you make it too weak (particularly with normal degradation). I know this is proprietary/secret, but I'd love to see a pie chart of where each dollar on a Model 3 goes. In particular how much is pure battery/drive system, and basically the whole rest of the car.
- MajorBee 5y agoIt's interesting (to me) that Model S/X units are only about 1% of all vehicles produced/delivered. Makes sense since those cars are much more expensive than Model 3/Y, but still.
- new_realist 5y agoSales of these models have been collapsing for several years now, because they’re at the end of their cycle and in need of an exterior redesign.
- toomuchtodo 5y agoMusk mentioned on one of their earnings calls they're made for sentimental reasons [1]. The new Plaid S looks good inside (imho, having sat in one). Based on their revenue numbers, I'm inclined to believe they don't need S/X halo cars to sell 3s and Ys (and soon, Cybertruck and Semi). The brand has been built, Plaid is for bragging rights against legacy automakers (Porsche Taycan). Stationary storage has huge demand and should not be discounted, every cell manufactured is being sold in a product. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-making-model-s-x-for-sentimental-reasons-elon-musk-2019-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-making-model-s-x-for-s... (disclosure: no TSLA exposure, but keep my ear to the ground, also for sentimental reasons)
- virtuallynathan 5y agoThis quarter isn't representative, they only started deliveries of the new Model S at the very end of the quarter. Historically it's about 10%.
- ricardobeat 5y agoThat's only because they stopped production fully in Q1 for the refresh. Most likely the numbers will catch up to be just under 10% - at least until more factories open up and M3/Y production increases again.
- umeshunni 5y agoI suspect the margins on those cars are significantly higher and their contribution to profitability is higher than 1%
- jtlisi 5y agoHow much did they rake in from selling FSD vaporware?
- octopaulus 5y agoMany $ from happy customers, many autonomous kilometers driven, have fun in your Ford focus
- DarmokJalad1701 5y agoThis vaporware recently drove 95%+ of a 2000 mile road trip for me. If only other vaporware was like this ...
- kensai 5y agoEach and every modern car has a driving assistive system. It is vaporware since it is still no autonomous drive as touted for, but simply an assistance to the driver which requires his permanent attention. I have been much more impressed with HUDs in common cars lately. Now that, although definitely not related to autonomous is a huge help to offset the cognitive load.
- mperham 5y agoBoth your POVs can be true. It's not "full" if it's missing the 5%. In that sense, it's vaporware.
- nixass 5y agoI too use my adaptive cruise control on German Autobahn and barely touch any commands while on it, I'd say it covers 95% of my needs too (it's not Tesla). And I call it as it is, adaptive cruise control, not the FSD
- pedrocr 5y agoAdaptive cruise control doesn't steer the car. That plus "Lane Keep Assist" is mostly what Tesla "Autopilot" does. "FSD" does a bit more right now but not nearly as much as has been promised.
- 1-6 5y agoTesla is performing great. Unfortunately, people have already priced that into the stock.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoNot at all. P/E just dropped by half. Given the growing economies of scale and the two giant factories being built in Europe and Texas and more soon, the sky is the limit. You can ignore FSD and still easily project a $4,000 target by 2026. I highly recommend this short thread https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-valuation-based-on-5-year-outlook.234307/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-valuation-base... (by a TMC member who's been highly reliable over the years). Disclosure: have been invested in TSLA for more than a decade now.
- adventured 5y agoEasily project a ~$4.3 trillion market cap in five years for an automaker that's already comically overvalued and has typical auto industry margins and nowhere near enough growth to get there. Fascinating. Plotting ~$60 billion in earnings and a 70+ PE ratio in five years. To do that they'll merely need $500b-$600b in sales (a couple trillion in sales across the next five years). And everyone in the developed world has to buy a Tesla within the next five years. Hilarious. All from the Model 3, which is the only thing they have to carry the entire company to those levels. The Model S and Model X certainly aren't going to move the $633b market cap needle beyond where it's already at, nor will solar (look at what the top solar companies are worth), nor will batteries (look at what the world's largest battery businesses are worth), nor will the big rig (look at what the top big rig segments are worth to other automakers). The article has some gigantic caveats given the obscene forecast, like this one: "the Cybertruck launch will need to go well" - understatement of the century. The Cybertruck is going to flop, after it initially sells well. Ford and the other traditional truck manufacturers will dominate electric trucks, because they're going to sell their customers the trucks those customers actually want to buy, not impractical gimmicks. Musk already knows it's going to ultimately flop, he has begun preparing the market for that outcome. If Tesla owned the entire auto market globally in five years, it wouldn't be worth half that $4.3t forecast. That's every car, truck and big rig sold everywhere on earth. Add up the value of all other automakers, now or five years ago, or ten years ago. The fantasy projection dissolves instantly when you shine light on it. It'll be a small miracle if Tesla is able to maintain their present valuation while pushing earnings up to $20b in five years, that will require extraordinary market-conquering continued growth across all product lines. They have to become akin to another Toyota in five years just to do that. I'll bookmark this ridiculous forecast and we can revisit it in a few years.
- hermannj314 5y agoWay to go to TSLA. I was a naysayer through 2020 and I lost a lot of money personally betting against this company ("but what about regulatory credits", ugh); however, with over one billion in net income in a single quarter and growing revenues and declining reg. credits , I will admit that I couldn't have been more wrong.
- nazka 5y agoBut with the market cap it’s at now it is really hard to phantom. I mean it’s the most valued car manufacturer in the world and beat Toyota by so much..! Even by being a bullish for a long long time. It’s hard to see a reasonable spot to enter now.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoRead this: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-valuation-based-on-5-year-outlook.234307/ https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-valuation-base...
- nazka 5y agoThanks! Will do.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y agoNB: this excludes robotaxi, so any revenues from an autonomous fleet would be cherry on top (it could double the profit, still).
- TheParkShark 5y agoI think Toyota backed the wrong horse. https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/26/22594235/toyota-lobbying-dc-ev-congress-biden-donation https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/26/22594235/toyota-lobbying-...
- 11thEarlOfMar 5y agoI’ve noticed the number of Tesla cars on the road in SV is around 4%, possibly more. It surprising how quickly they’ve become commonplace, even on their home turf.
- mensetmanusman 5y agoI wonder how many more orders of magnitude are required to solve self driving… do we need 10 or 100M more vehicles streaming data, or do we need to use 1000x more transistors daily for the AI annealing? 10,000x the number of parameters? Maybe things have to be a billion times better before we get real FSD?
- lowdose 5y agoRecord driving behavior off all cars coupled with their number plates and let the AI decide what to do next.
- nathanaldensr 5y ago"the AI." You know this doesn't exist, right?
- dylan604 5y agoI think there's a whole lot of people that would be upset to find out you don't think they exist. I mean, come on, people have a hard enough time with eternal questions like "who am I?" and you come along and tell them they don't exist? I now understand why Marvin the robot was in the mood he was. Why bother?
- andyxor 5y agoWhat's needed is qualitative not quantitative change, AI needs a fundamental breakthrough to mimic natural cognition to some minimal degree, but it's all pseudo-science at this point unfortunately. The current deep learning approach is a dead end.
- ska 5y ago> Maybe things have to be a billion times better before we get real FSD? One problem with this kind of estimation is that it's not actually clear that we can get there from "here" using current approaches. If it turn we can't, estimation is pretty hopeless if history tells us anything about putting a timeline on breakthroughs...
- nickik 5y agoThe operating margin is 11% very high up their in the industry. Automotive margin is 25% and that is also very good. Energy and Solar margin are much worse but at least not negative anymore. This is a fast growing market and nobody else in the world is set up for it as well as Tesla is, both for home and grid. This will just continue to grow every year and there is large economics of scale that can be reached. Something that many people miss is that other car companies make a huge amount of money on service, because they have such large old fleets that need parts. Tesla does not have this and service has been a huge negative for them. This seems to be starting to slowly turn. In a few years Tesla service will be a huge cash cow, and Tesla will not have to share that money with dealers for the most part. Its the same with the supercharger network, huge investment now, hugely negative. But eventually that will be very profitable for them. Again, something people miss on the Tesla story. Large amounts of super-high margin revenue. Unlike players like Electrify America, Tesla builds its own chargers fully vertically integrated. Eventually Tesla can open the network to the competitors and that will give them high utilization on the network, making it very profitable. They are still not a large car company, their operating margin has a chance to be significantly better in another year. More local production in Europe and Eastern US, more S/X sales, better margin on solar and storage for sure, and profitable Cybertruck. Model Y/Cybertruck/Semi produced in Texas/Berlin will also use their own Tesla internal batteries, the far away most expensive part that they had to buy from suppliers. Tesla new manufacturing methods should allow them to both remove the profit the supplier would have made, and also produce the cells more cheaply. Storage should eventually get batteries from those plants as well but that might take a while. Overall pretty happy with the progress.
- johnsimer 5y agoElon has tweeted that he doesn’t want service side of the business to turn a profit, as it sets up a bad incentive, i.e to make unreliable vehicles
- nickik 5y agoNice sentiment but it will happen anyway. Its good.for them not wanting to make this a cornerstone of profitability as it is for traditional manufactures but its still gone make a fair amount of money.
- renewiltord 5y agoAs usual, the inverse HN index seems to outperform.
- underseacables 5y agoA lot of people against tesla seem to be more against Elon musk, then the company. I often wonder if someone like Steve Jobs or Mark Cuban had started it if they would have a different opinion. For all intensive purposes, they are great cars.
- gengelbro 5y agoNot knocking the comment, but the phrase is "for all intents and purposes" fyi.
- ffggvv 5y agothey should include autopilot and fire deaths in their results
- senectus1 5y agoThis is pretty cool, but you look at how valued Tesla is and the tiny earnings it makes next to the size of the projected earnings that spaceX and starlink are likely to make... spaceX and starlink could end up being absolute MONSTERS of companies. Musk is just one incredible guy, despite his personality quirks.