6 ms·

I think people get blinded by status quo bias. Imagine we were operating with 100% EVs today, would people be advocating for adding in gasoline tech as hybrids

I think people get blinded by status quo bias. Imagine we were operating with 100% EVs today, would people be advocating for adding in gasoline tech as hybrids?

glogla 5y ago
That's why I like this (10 years old, wow!) Nissan Leaf ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn__9hLJKAk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn__9hLJKAk It is obviously ridiculously over the top, but I think it paints interesting analogy.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
rdtwo 5y ago
Why not can you imagine having the freedom to change your car nearly instantly and go wherever you want. No range anxiety
- loonster 5y ago
  Imagine how cheap gas would be if no one wanted it.
  - fossuser 5y ago
    I’d guess it’d be obscenely expensive without economies of scale based on current demand and distribution. As far as “no range anxiety” people in that world would just be making similar arguments, “what if there’s no nearby gas station”, “what if it’s out of gas”, “I can’t just plug-in anywhere” etc.
    - Dylan16807 5y ago
      > I’d guess it’d be obscenely expensive without economies of scale based on current demand and distribution. Then swap out gasoline for diesel. If nothing else, I can get vegetable oil at the grocery store at a price that isn't too bad. > As far as “no range anxiety” people in that world would just be making similar arguments, “what if there’s no nearby gas station”, “what if it’s out of gas”, “I can’t just plug-in anywhere” etc. That's not how (plug-in, and surely these would be plug-in) hybrids work...
    - madhadron 5y ago
      That argument about gas was a major argument against gasoline cars back in the day. It took major infrastructure investment to build out the gas network.
      - fossuser 5y ago
        At the time there was no good alternative with existing infrastructure in place. Today with EVs and modern battery tech that isn’t true.
    - loonster 5y ago
      Fractional distillation. You are going to get what you are going to get. Unless you find suitable alternatives for all oil products, gasoline will still be produced in the same quantities. Somebody will find something to do with the unused byproduct gasoline. I consider filling up my car to be a noble use instead of just burning it.
- CamperBob2 5y ago
  In a sane world, it would take less time to recharge an EV, not more. Good industrial and government leadership, working together, would have given us a swappable battery standard by now.
  - bobsil1 5y ago
    The new 800V EVs only take 15 minutes from ~20% to 80%.
    - CamperBob2 5y ago
      Which is 10 minutes longer than it takes me to refuel my IC vehicles from 5% to 100%, and 14 minutes longer than it should take. It's funny how HN'ers will fight to the death arguing for swappable batteries in cell phones, where they offer vanishingly few benefits, and against swappable batteries in motor vehicles, where they could potentially make all the difference in the world.
      - baumandm 5y ago
        Swappable batteries aren't viable without a new business model. If you buy an EV today, it comes with a battery with a ~10 year warranty, and replacing that battery after the warranty ends is a pretty expensive affair. Nobody with a new battery is going to want to swap it out for a old, potentially degraded battery. But everyone with an old battery would be happy to try to swap their way into a new battery. Instead, I think you'd need a model where the battery isn't included in the price of the car, and you have a monthly subscription to rent a battery from either the dealer or a third-party. That way you aren't attached to the specific battery you're using, and the subscription fees go towards replacing old batteries as needed. The subscription would either be a base fee + price per replacement, or a base fee for rental + unlimited replacements.
        CamperBob2 5y ago
        Nobody with a new battery is going to want to swap it out for a old, potentially degraded battery. But everyone with an old battery would be happy to try to swap their way into a new battery. Great, this old schtick again. News flash: nobody cares whether or not they own their car battery. With modern BMS systems, you would basically pay by the coulomb. But yeah, I think this particular ship has sailed, at least for the near-term future. Huge missed opportunity. Refueling an EV should be as quick and easy as swapping out a BBQ propane cylinder -- which is also something you don't care if you own or not -- at your local convenience store.
Dylan16807 5y ago
You don't think lots of people would love range extenders? Giving up half a frunk for an extra 200 miles of range can come in handy.
- Johnny555 5y ago
  I don't think that many people really want them (well, are willing to pay for them), given that they are so rare. BMW charged $4,000 for the Range Extender option in the i3, at that price, the manufacturer may as well just put in a bigger battery.
  - Dylan16807 5y ago
    If I compare the battery pack for an i3, $4k of battery only gets you 25 miles of range. That range extender with a couple more gallons of tank could give you 200.
    - Johnny555 5y ago
      The battery pack costs $16K list price, but that price includes engineering, structural and support costs, so putting an extra $4K of batteries into it would give more than a 25% increase in range. The range extender only adds around 70 miles of range: current 2018 EPA estimates ding the more powerful i3s from 114 to 107 miles. BMW hasn’t cited an estimate for the REX model, which currently stands at 180 miles with the help of a 647-cc twin-cylinder engine.
      - Dylan16807 5y ago
        The range extender adds 70 miles because it has a two gallon tank. Changing that to a six gallon tank won't change the price or meaningfully impact the convenience.
        Johnny555 5y ago
        I don't think that small 38hp range extender could power the car for much farther, it's not powerful enough to run the car indefinitely at highway speeds (there's a lawsuit against BMW for the car slowing to 45mph while using the range extender), it needs some battery capacity to fully power the car. They could put in a more powerful motor than that small scooter motor, but then that costs and weighs more, and then the car becomes a plug-in hybrid rather than a battery electric car with range extender. And there seems to be low demand for plug-in hybrids as there aren't many options. When I bought my Honda Accord Hybrid, I looked at the Clarity plug-in hybrid but decided against it. It didn't drive as nice as the Accord, cost nearly $5000 more, plus I was doing some regular long distance travel at the time, the accord has a ~500 mile range, the clarity has a ~340 gas+electric range, though the plug-in range would cover my commute. And the Clarity was rated 40mpg highway, while I get around 50mpg @ 60-65mph with the Accord Hybrid (drops down to 44mpg at 70-75mph)

I think people get blinded by status quo bias. Imagine we were operating with 100% EVs today, would people be advocating for adding in gasoline tech as hybrids?

glogla 5y ago

That's why I like this (10 years old, wow!) Nissan Leaf ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn__9hLJKAk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn__9hLJKAk It is obviously ridiculously over the top, but I think it paints interesting analogy.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

rdtwo 5y ago

Why not can you imagine having the freedom to change your car nearly instantly and go wherever you want. No range anxiety

loonster 5y ago
Imagine how cheap gas would be if no one wanted it.
- fossuser 5y ago
  I’d guess it’d be obscenely expensive without economies of scale based on current demand and distribution. As far as “no range anxiety” people in that world would just be making similar arguments, “what if there’s no nearby gas station”, “what if it’s out of gas”, “I can’t just plug-in anywhere” etc.
  - Dylan16807 5y ago
    > I’d guess it’d be obscenely expensive without economies of scale based on current demand and distribution. Then swap out gasoline for diesel. If nothing else, I can get vegetable oil at the grocery store at a price that isn't too bad. > As far as “no range anxiety” people in that world would just be making similar arguments, “what if there’s no nearby gas station”, “what if it’s out of gas”, “I can’t just plug-in anywhere” etc. That's not how (plug-in, and surely these would be plug-in) hybrids work...
  - madhadron 5y ago
    That argument about gas was a major argument against gasoline cars back in the day. It took major infrastructure investment to build out the gas network.
    - fossuser 5y ago
      At the time there was no good alternative with existing infrastructure in place. Today with EVs and modern battery tech that isn’t true.
  - loonster 5y ago
    Fractional distillation. You are going to get what you are going to get. Unless you find suitable alternatives for all oil products, gasoline will still be produced in the same quantities. Somebody will find something to do with the unused byproduct gasoline. I consider filling up my car to be a noble use instead of just burning it.
CamperBob2 5y ago
In a sane world, it would take less time to recharge an EV, not more. Good industrial and government leadership, working together, would have given us a swappable battery standard by now.
- bobsil1 5y ago
  The new 800V EVs only take 15 minutes from ~20% to 80%.
  - CamperBob2 5y ago
    Which is 10 minutes longer than it takes me to refuel my IC vehicles from 5% to 100%, and 14 minutes longer than it should take. It's funny how HN'ers will fight to the death arguing for swappable batteries in cell phones, where they offer vanishingly few benefits, and against swappable batteries in motor vehicles, where they could potentially make all the difference in the world.
    - baumandm 5y ago
      Swappable batteries aren't viable without a new business model. If you buy an EV today, it comes with a battery with a ~10 year warranty, and replacing that battery after the warranty ends is a pretty expensive affair. Nobody with a new battery is going to want to swap it out for a old, potentially degraded battery. But everyone with an old battery would be happy to try to swap their way into a new battery. Instead, I think you'd need a model where the battery isn't included in the price of the car, and you have a monthly subscription to rent a battery from either the dealer or a third-party. That way you aren't attached to the specific battery you're using, and the subscription fees go towards replacing old batteries as needed. The subscription would either be a base fee + price per replacement, or a base fee for rental + unlimited replacements.
      - CamperBob2 5y ago
        Nobody with a new battery is going to want to swap it out for a old, potentially degraded battery. But everyone with an old battery would be happy to try to swap their way into a new battery. Great, this old schtick again. News flash: nobody cares whether or not they own their car battery. With modern BMS systems, you would basically pay by the coulomb. But yeah, I think this particular ship has sailed, at least for the near-term future. Huge missed opportunity. Refueling an EV should be as quick and easy as swapping out a BBQ propane cylinder -- which is also something you don't care if you own or not -- at your local convenience store.

Dylan16807 5y ago

You don't think lots of people would love range extenders? Giving up half a frunk for an extra 200 miles of range can come in handy.

Johnny555 5y ago
I don't think that many people really want them (well, are willing to pay for them), given that they are so rare. BMW charged $4,000 for the Range Extender option in the i3, at that price, the manufacturer may as well just put in a bigger battery.
- Dylan16807 5y ago
  If I compare the battery pack for an i3, $4k of battery only gets you 25 miles of range. That range extender with a couple more gallons of tank could give you 200.
  - Johnny555 5y ago
    The battery pack costs $16K list price, but that price includes engineering, structural and support costs, so putting an extra $4K of batteries into it would give more than a 25% increase in range. The range extender only adds around 70 miles of range: current 2018 EPA estimates ding the more powerful i3s from 114 to 107 miles. BMW hasn’t cited an estimate for the REX model, which currently stands at 180 miles with the help of a 647-cc twin-cylinder engine.
    - Dylan16807 5y ago
      The range extender adds 70 miles because it has a two gallon tank. Changing that to a six gallon tank won't change the price or meaningfully impact the convenience.
      - Johnny555 5y ago
        I don't think that small 38hp range extender could power the car for much farther, it's not powerful enough to run the car indefinitely at highway speeds (there's a lawsuit against BMW for the car slowing to 45mph while using the range extender), it needs some battery capacity to fully power the car. They could put in a more powerful motor than that small scooter motor, but then that costs and weighs more, and then the car becomes a plug-in hybrid rather than a battery electric car with range extender. And there seems to be low demand for plug-in hybrids as there aren't many options. When I bought my Honda Accord Hybrid, I looked at the Clarity plug-in hybrid but decided against it. It didn't drive as nice as the Accord, cost nearly $5000 more, plus I was doing some regular long distance travel at the time, the accord has a ~500 mile range, the clarity has a ~340 gas+electric range, though the plug-in range would cover my commute. And the Clarity was rated 40mpg highway, while I get around 50mpg @ 60-65mph with the Accord Hybrid (drops down to 44mpg at 70-75mph)