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Amazing how determined kids can be at trying to get off school! The downside to this is that it deprives their classmates as entire bubbles get sent home I thi

Amazing how determined kids can be at trying to get off school! The downside to this is that it deprives their classmates as entire bubbles get sent home I think.

the-dude 5y ago
Everybody happy! I bet you would get mighty popular.
nanis 5y ago
> The downside to this is that it deprives their classmates Assume probability of false positive is 1%. If you are tested weekly, there is a 41% chance you'll falsely test positive at least once in a year. If you are tested every workday, 93% chance. This is assuming there is no malfeasance. If you assume a false positive probability of 5%, the probabilities go up to 93% and 100%. The negative effects of false positives are the same whether kids are using soda or something else is causing them. At some point, the costs have to be weighed against the benefits. Here is a false positive/false negative simulator I put together last year (thrice silently banned -- so I stopped trying to do more after restoring it one last time) helps you explore what happens with various scenarios of infection rates and false positive/negative probabilities. Linking to the discussion to provide context for the app: https://www.covid2020.icu/false-positive-false-negative-simulator/ https://www.covid2020.icu/false-positive-false-negative-simu...
- BenjiWiebe 5y ago
  My workspace immediately retests if you get a positive. While you wait.
  - nanis 5y ago
    PCR or something else? If PCR, is the number of cycles pre-set or is that a choice variable?
  - dtech 5y ago
    That seems like a good way to miss infections (and get people back to work, which is probably the point). The tests seem to have a high false-negative rate. Assuming independence and 25% FN rate, a second test will miss an additional 20% of infections of all people tested.
    - yarcob 5y ago
      Same at my kids school. Whenever they have a positive antibody test, they just do it again. I think that the antibody tests are sketchy in the first place, but if they don't even stick to the protocol and don't follow up positive antibody tests with PCR tests, it's almost pointless.
- makomk 5y ago
  Part of the reason it took so long to roll out these lateral flow tests is that it was hard to find ones with an acceptably low false positive rate - it needed to be well below 1% for exactly the reason you outline. (Apparently PHE estimates it at less than 1 in 1000: https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/03/30/covid-19-reintroducing-confirmatory-pcr-testing/ https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/03/30/covid-19-... ) Even when the rate of Covid infections in the UK was much lower than it currently is, retesting of people using PCR suggested that the large majority of positives were in fact true positives, at least amongst the adults retested. It's possible that the story is different for kids, but on the other hand they're not vaccinated in the UK whereas many adults are...
  - nanis 5y ago
    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4469 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4469 and https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n706 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n706 both make interesting reading.
mschuster91 5y ago
> The downside to this is that it deprives their classmates as entire bubbles get sent home I think. It would have been the job of governments to actually govern, by transforming schools to work digitally. Just look at Denmark - their schools have been digitalized for over two decades (https://www.aktiv-online.de/news/digitale-schule-in-daenemark-ist-die-kreidezeit-laengst-vorbei-4048 https://www.aktiv-online.de/news/digitale-schule-in-daenemar...). All they had to do was tell the kids to stay home and that's it. No deprivation, no negative effects. The complete inaction (how many schools have bought and installed air purifiers vs. how many parliaments?) and incompetence that has been shown towards children all over the Western world in the coronavirus crisis is utterly utterly inexcusable.
- briandear 5y ago
  How many kids have died from the Wuhan Coronavirus?
  - mschuster91 5y ago
    Half of the kids who contract Covid19 suffer from "long covid" (per https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7927578/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7927578/). This is really, really bad. The worse thing is: every person contracting the virus can develop a mutation that escapes vaccines - and children can spread it to their parents and grandparents. You never had children I assume? Just look at your coworkers how often they fall sick because of some nasty flu or other bug their children caught in kindergarten or school. And your "Wuhan coronavirus" naming ... the only people I've heard who call the virus by that name or its similar "China virus" are right-wingers and corona / vaccine deniers.
    - logicalmonster 5y ago
      > Half of the kids who contract Covid19 suffer from "long covid" I don't doubt that there's some likely some fairly common short-medium term health impacts from a nasty flu that's relatively new and unknown. But I strongly wonder how much of these supposed "long-covid" symptoms may be wounds that are partially self-inflicted by society. I believe that natural (and already quite bad) activity patterns have been altered negatively since Covid started and this may have a wide-scale health impact that the establishment doesn't care about. These symptoms may partially stem from basically keeping people locked up inside for months, the media feeding them constant scare stories and stressing them out (stress can prevent good sleep and has many other negative health effects), people eating garbage food because there's not as much else to do, people not getting as much sun (Vitamin D exposure) and exercise as they should be getting, the depressions coming from the unnatural social life we've been forced to endure (covering faces, only communicating via video chats), etc. > And your "Wuhan coronavirus" naming ... the only people I've heard who call the virus by that name or its similar "China virus" are right-wingers and corona / vaccine deniers. May I ask what does an idealogical compliance check add to the conversation?
cmiller1 5y ago
Maybe we should attempt to improve the education system so children are happier to be there...
- paul_f 5y ago
  Or, maybe we should stop testing asymptomatic people
  - DocTomoe 5y ago
    Actually, that sounds like a horrible idea if you try to prevent superspreader events. If anything, we need more testing, not less, to contain earlier.
    - rytcio 5y ago
      Like the antifa/blm riots?
      - pmarreck 5y ago
        Outdoor transmission rates are negligible. Unless you are Trump blithering on in front of a crowd in the Rose Garden, of course
        bpodgursky 5y ago
        There was a corresponding indoor event which almost certainly was the spreader event in this case.
    - nradov 5y ago
      In most countries containment stopped being a feasible option back in March 2020.
- dylan604 5y ago
  This made me literally LOL. You will NEVER be able to make all children happy with going to school. Attempting it is almost a fool's errand. Even in nice posh schools, there will still be kids unhappy. It's just human nature.

Amazing how determined kids can be at trying to get off school! The downside to this is that it deprives their classmates as entire bubbles get sent home I think.

the-dude 5y ago

Everybody happy! I bet you would get mighty popular.

nanis 5y ago

> The downside to this is that it deprives their classmates Assume probability of false positive is 1%. If you are tested weekly, there is a 41% chance you'll falsely test positive at least once in a year. If you are tested every workday, 93% chance. This is assuming there is no malfeasance. If you assume a false positive probability of 5%, the probabilities go up to 93% and 100%. The negative effects of false positives are the same whether kids are using soda or something else is causing them. At some point, the costs have to be weighed against the benefits. Here is a false positive/false negative simulator I put together last year (thrice silently banned -- so I stopped trying to do more after restoring it one last time) helps you explore what happens with various scenarios of infection rates and false positive/negative probabilities. Linking to the discussion to provide context for the app: https://www.covid2020.icu/false-positive-false-negative-simulator/ https://www.covid2020.icu/false-positive-false-negative-simu...

BenjiWiebe 5y ago
My workspace immediately retests if you get a positive. While you wait.
- nanis 5y ago
  PCR or something else? If PCR, is the number of cycles pre-set or is that a choice variable?
- dtech 5y ago
  That seems like a good way to miss infections (and get people back to work, which is probably the point). The tests seem to have a high false-negative rate. Assuming independence and 25% FN rate, a second test will miss an additional 20% of infections of all people tested.
  - yarcob 5y ago
    Same at my kids school. Whenever they have a positive antibody test, they just do it again. I think that the antibody tests are sketchy in the first place, but if they don't even stick to the protocol and don't follow up positive antibody tests with PCR tests, it's almost pointless.
makomk 5y ago
Part of the reason it took so long to roll out these lateral flow tests is that it was hard to find ones with an acceptably low false positive rate - it needed to be well below 1% for exactly the reason you outline. (Apparently PHE estimates it at less than 1 in 1000: https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/03/30/covid-19-reintroducing-confirmatory-pcr-testing/ https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/03/30/covid-19-... ) Even when the rate of Covid infections in the UK was much lower than it currently is, retesting of people using PCR suggested that the large majority of positives were in fact true positives, at least amongst the adults retested. It's possible that the story is different for kids, but on the other hand they're not vaccinated in the UK whereas many adults are...
- nanis 5y ago
  https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4469 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4469 and https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n706 https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n706 both make interesting reading.

mschuster91 5y ago

> The downside to this is that it deprives their classmates as entire bubbles get sent home I think. It would have been the job of governments to actually govern, by transforming schools to work digitally. Just look at Denmark - their schools have been digitalized for over two decades (https://www.aktiv-online.de/news/digitale-schule-in-daenemark-ist-die-kreidezeit-laengst-vorbei-4048 https://www.aktiv-online.de/news/digitale-schule-in-daenemar...). All they had to do was tell the kids to stay home and that's it. No deprivation, no negative effects. The complete inaction (how many schools have bought and installed air purifiers vs. how many parliaments?) and incompetence that has been shown towards children all over the Western world in the coronavirus crisis is utterly utterly inexcusable.

briandear 5y ago
How many kids have died from the Wuhan Coronavirus?
- mschuster91 5y ago
  Half of the kids who contract Covid19 suffer from "long covid" (per https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7927578/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7927578/). This is really, really bad. The worse thing is: every person contracting the virus can develop a mutation that escapes vaccines - and children can spread it to their parents and grandparents. You never had children I assume? Just look at your coworkers how often they fall sick because of some nasty flu or other bug their children caught in kindergarten or school. And your "Wuhan coronavirus" naming ... the only people I've heard who call the virus by that name or its similar "China virus" are right-wingers and corona / vaccine deniers.
  - logicalmonster 5y ago
    > Half of the kids who contract Covid19 suffer from "long covid" I don't doubt that there's some likely some fairly common short-medium term health impacts from a nasty flu that's relatively new and unknown. But I strongly wonder how much of these supposed "long-covid" symptoms may be wounds that are partially self-inflicted by society. I believe that natural (and already quite bad) activity patterns have been altered negatively since Covid started and this may have a wide-scale health impact that the establishment doesn't care about. These symptoms may partially stem from basically keeping people locked up inside for months, the media feeding them constant scare stories and stressing them out (stress can prevent good sleep and has many other negative health effects), people eating garbage food because there's not as much else to do, people not getting as much sun (Vitamin D exposure) and exercise as they should be getting, the depressions coming from the unnatural social life we've been forced to endure (covering faces, only communicating via video chats), etc. > And your "Wuhan coronavirus" naming ... the only people I've heard who call the virus by that name or its similar "China virus" are right-wingers and corona / vaccine deniers. May I ask what does an idealogical compliance check add to the conversation?

cmiller1 5y ago

Maybe we should attempt to improve the education system so children are happier to be there...

paul_f 5y ago
Or, maybe we should stop testing asymptomatic people
- DocTomoe 5y ago
  Actually, that sounds like a horrible idea if you try to prevent superspreader events. If anything, we need more testing, not less, to contain earlier.
  - rytcio 5y ago
    Like the antifa/blm riots?
    - pmarreck 5y ago
      Outdoor transmission rates are negligible. Unless you are Trump blithering on in front of a crowd in the Rose Garden, of course
      - bpodgursky 5y ago
        There was a corresponding indoor event which almost certainly was the spreader event in this case.
  - nradov 5y ago
    In most countries containment stopped being a feasible option back in March 2020.
dylan604 5y ago
This made me literally LOL. You will NEVER be able to make all children happy with going to school. Attempting it is almost a fool's errand. Even in nice posh schools, there will still be kids unhappy. It's just human nature.