4 ms·

> A society has collapsed when it displays a rapid, significant loss of an established level of sociopolitical complexity. The term ‘established level’ is impor

> A society has collapsed when it displays a rapid, significant loss of an established level of sociopolitical complexity. The term ‘established level’ is important. To qualify as an instance of collapse a society must have been at, or developing toward, a level of complexity for more than one or two generations. I think we're seeing a glimpse of that with the supply chain crisis the world is having right now. "Shortages that cause shortages that cause shortages"

perl4ever 5y ago
"The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" covered very nearly 1500 years.
joe_the_user 5y ago
Well, Supply chains are adjusting... for now. But overall, the most notable thing is that when the fragility and/or decay of a system is revealed, nothing fundamentally changes. The giant ship that got stuck in the Suez? No indication measures are being taken to make the world economy more resilient. California's fire problem is still being met with piecemeal measures, etc. The Tainter reference in the article is especially. Fundamentally fragility comes when elites based their power on particular social forms and social forms gradually become maladaptive.
- nradov 5y ago
  The Suez canal is being expanded. They've been working on it for several years and making progress. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal_Area_Development_Project?wprov=sfla1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal_Area_Development_Pr... Ships can and did take alternate routes when the canal was blocked. That increases time and cost but not catastrophically so.
- perl4ever 5y ago
  >No indication measures are being taken to make the world economy more resilient The alternative viewpoint is that it was demonstrated it is resilient (enough). The worst case scenario was shown to be some incremental cost added to shipping by going the long way, not everybody starving to death, or even a recession.
swader999 5y ago
South Africa right now is unfortunately a better example.

perl4ever 5y ago

"The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" covered very nearly 1500 years.

joe_the_user 5y ago

Well, Supply chains are adjusting... for now. But overall, the most notable thing is that when the fragility and/or decay of a system is revealed, nothing fundamentally changes. The giant ship that got stuck in the Suez? No indication measures are being taken to make the world economy more resilient. California's fire problem is still being met with piecemeal measures, etc. The Tainter reference in the article is especially. Fundamentally fragility comes when elites based their power on particular social forms and social forms gradually become maladaptive.

nradov 5y ago
The Suez canal is being expanded. They've been working on it for several years and making progress. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal_Area_Development_Project?wprov=sfla1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal_Area_Development_Pr... Ships can and did take alternate routes when the canal was blocked. That increases time and cost but not catastrophically so.
perl4ever 5y ago
>No indication measures are being taken to make the world economy more resilient The alternative viewpoint is that it was demonstrated it is resilient (enough). The worst case scenario was shown to be some incremental cost added to shipping by going the long way, not everybody starving to death, or even a recession.

swader999 5y ago

South Africa right now is unfortunately a better example.