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Wendover Productions (who else?!) recently released a video[1] on the future of electric planes. Quite a lot of information in there! [1]: https://www.youtube.

Wendover Productions (who else?!) recently released a video[1] on the future of electric planes. Quite a lot of information in there! [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aH4b3sAs-l8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aH4b3sAs-l8

canadianfella 5y ago
Why “who else”?
- scrollaway 5y ago
  I suspect it was in jest, but the reason why is that he is obviously immensely passionated about aviation and logistics. He makes really, really good videos about both, I'd recommend his channel to anyone. PS, I had to vouch for your comment to reply, as it was dead. Had a look through your profile… I think there's often a lot of value in asking simple questions, but a lot of your comment history is just extremely low value (eg. correcting people's spelling). If you don't have anything meaningful to add to a discussion, maybe consider not replying at all.
  - itsrajju 5y ago
    It was indeed in jest! Wendover's videos have been consistently increasing in quality over the years. The amount of research that goes into each one is phenomenal. So much so that lately if I ever come across any aviation topic on the internet, there's already a Wendover video about it. :)
    - neither_color 5y ago
      The only reason I pay for youtube premium is for creators like Wendover, Extreme Engineering, Smarter Every Day, etc. There are a lot of independent science, economics, and history channels there that are too good for YT but depend on the traffic for survival. Some have made attempts to switch to other platforms like Nebula but they dont have the mass yet.
      - itsrajju 5y ago
        I do have a Nebula subscription, and Wendover is part of it. I like the fact that Nebula is partly owned by the creators themselves, and a significant part of Nebula's revenue goes directly to them.
    - mastax 5y ago
      I had a Gell-Mann amnesia moment when their video about electric car charge infrastructure made some major errors about electrical engineering. But their videos do generally feel exceptionally well researched, especially by YouTube standards.
saddlerustle 5y ago
LNA, an aviation industry newsletter, recently came to a very different conclusion [1]. The biggest difference to Wendover Productions's numbers is a hugely higher estimate in the cost of replacing the battery every 5-10 years due to battery degradation. [1] https://leehamnews.com/2021/07/01/the-true-cost-of-electric-aircraft/ https://leehamnews.com/2021/07/01/the-true-cost-of-electric-...
- thunderrabbit 5y ago
  Thank you for bringing up this other conclusion. I still side with Wendover overall. Even if batteries have to be replaced that often now, the technology will continue to improve, becoming both cheaper and more reliable. Computers used to be the size of rooms and break due to literal insects in them.
  - Robotbeat 5y ago
    And it really depends on the chemistry. Some chemistries can last 10,000-100,000 cycles and so the battery may never need to be replaced in the life of the airframe. One thing short haul electric aircraft have going for them is the regulatory requirement to have a 45 minute reserve. That essentially means that the battery will never be cycled to anywhere close to 0% but probably maintain at least 20% almost all the time. Combined with most routes probably using just 80% of the max charge, and the batteries could last an extremely long time. Also battery prices continue to fall. Some industry analysts still use battery cost estimates from five or 10 years ago for something that will happen in 30 years (battery replacement). Edit: looks like they’re using extremely high costs for battery replacement, comparable to costs about a decade ago and about 2-4 times current costs for mass produced batteries, let alone 5-20 years from now: “ The cost of replacing such a battery can be projected to reach around $400 to $500 per kWh mid-decade.” Compare this to estimates/goals by the Department of Energy that say $60-80/kWh is feasible by 2030: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/12/22/doe-offers-an-energy-storage-strategy-publishes-detailed-technology-cost-estimates/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/12/22/doe-offers-an-energy-...
    - 5y ago
thunderrabbit 5y ago
Wow this video was indeed so great that I signed up for their sponsor mentioned at the end!!
deregulateMed 5y ago
Anyone get a weird feeling about Wendover? I used to think he was a decent authority until I watched his channel Half As Interesting. Maybe he hires a writer, but his sarcastic joking nature comes off as extremely sincere and authoritative. This makes me question how solid his Wendover points are. He has a commanding voice and we believe him.
- citrusybread 5y ago
  definitely. a lot of his other content is just kind of out there -- missing some critical details or glosses over other things. doesn't help that it feels like clickbait, at least for HAI, and most of them can be summed up with a tweet.

canadianfella 5y ago

Why “who else”?

scrollaway 5y ago
I suspect it was in jest, but the reason why is that he is obviously immensely passionated about aviation and logistics. He makes really, really good videos about both, I'd recommend his channel to anyone. PS, I had to vouch for your comment to reply, as it was dead. Had a look through your profile… I think there's often a lot of value in asking simple questions, but a lot of your comment history is just extremely low value (eg. correcting people's spelling). If you don't have anything meaningful to add to a discussion, maybe consider not replying at all.
- itsrajju 5y ago
  It was indeed in jest! Wendover's videos have been consistently increasing in quality over the years. The amount of research that goes into each one is phenomenal. So much so that lately if I ever come across any aviation topic on the internet, there's already a Wendover video about it. :)
  - neither_color 5y ago
    The only reason I pay for youtube premium is for creators like Wendover, Extreme Engineering, Smarter Every Day, etc. There are a lot of independent science, economics, and history channels there that are too good for YT but depend on the traffic for survival. Some have made attempts to switch to other platforms like Nebula but they dont have the mass yet.
    - itsrajju 5y ago
      I do have a Nebula subscription, and Wendover is part of it. I like the fact that Nebula is partly owned by the creators themselves, and a significant part of Nebula's revenue goes directly to them.
  - mastax 5y ago
    I had a Gell-Mann amnesia moment when their video about electric car charge infrastructure made some major errors about electrical engineering. But their videos do generally feel exceptionally well researched, especially by YouTube standards.

saddlerustle 5y ago

LNA, an aviation industry newsletter, recently came to a very different conclusion [1]. The biggest difference to Wendover Productions's numbers is a hugely higher estimate in the cost of replacing the battery every 5-10 years due to battery degradation. [1] https://leehamnews.com/2021/07/01/the-true-cost-of-electric-aircraft/ https://leehamnews.com/2021/07/01/the-true-cost-of-electric-...

thunderrabbit 5y ago
Thank you for bringing up this other conclusion. I still side with Wendover overall. Even if batteries have to be replaced that often now, the technology will continue to improve, becoming both cheaper and more reliable. Computers used to be the size of rooms and break due to literal insects in them.
- Robotbeat 5y ago
  And it really depends on the chemistry. Some chemistries can last 10,000-100,000 cycles and so the battery may never need to be replaced in the life of the airframe. One thing short haul electric aircraft have going for them is the regulatory requirement to have a 45 minute reserve. That essentially means that the battery will never be cycled to anywhere close to 0% but probably maintain at least 20% almost all the time. Combined with most routes probably using just 80% of the max charge, and the batteries could last an extremely long time. Also battery prices continue to fall. Some industry analysts still use battery cost estimates from five or 10 years ago for something that will happen in 30 years (battery replacement). Edit: looks like they’re using extremely high costs for battery replacement, comparable to costs about a decade ago and about 2-4 times current costs for mass produced batteries, let alone 5-20 years from now: “ The cost of replacing such a battery can be projected to reach around $400 to $500 per kWh mid-decade.” Compare this to estimates/goals by the Department of Energy that say $60-80/kWh is feasible by 2030: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/12/22/doe-offers-an-energy-storage-strategy-publishes-detailed-technology-cost-estimates/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/12/22/doe-offers-an-energy-...
  - 5y ago

thunderrabbit 5y ago

Wow this video was indeed so great that I signed up for their sponsor mentioned at the end!!

deregulateMed 5y ago

Anyone get a weird feeling about Wendover? I used to think he was a decent authority until I watched his channel Half As Interesting. Maybe he hires a writer, but his sarcastic joking nature comes off as extremely sincere and authoritative. This makes me question how solid his Wendover points are. He has a commanding voice and we believe him.

citrusybread 5y ago
definitely. a lot of his other content is just kind of out there -- missing some critical details or glosses over other things. doesn't help that it feels like clickbait, at least for HAI, and most of them can be summed up with a tweet.