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Not really sure I understand this. If you play it long enough you bankrupt your country and the virus always wins. Is that the secret message, or do I just not

Not really sure I understand this. If you play it long enough you bankrupt your country and the virus always wins. Is that the secret message, or do I just not know how to play?

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
The way the model is set up, a zero-CoVID strategy is impossible. If you close the borders and impose a full lockdown on day 1, you still end up getting about 10 cases/day forever (I believe this is due to assumptions about imported cases). There are, however, countries that have achieved zero CoVID and then reopened and sustained zero CoVID. But this is only possible with strict border quarantine rules, extensive contact tracing and immediate mass testing whenever a new case shows up.
- lmm 5y ago
  > There are, however, countries that have achieved zero CoVID and then reopened and sustained zero CoVID. Is that actually true? The big success stories like Taiwan and Australia seem to keep getting imported cases and needing to lock down again.
  - Robotbeat 5y ago
    New Zealand did it.
    - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
      As did China.
- pbhjpbhj 5y ago
  The assumption should also be existing cases of infection that are not yet symptomatic, or are totally asymptomatic. Borders are leaky too, but when the disease was found it was already well distributed, and with a long incubation period.
gus_massa 5y ago
[spoiler alert] With mask/max10/closeHR/CloseUni you can get a good enough result for the first wave until the summer holidays. Perhaps you can reopen a little more. (Max100 also work, but the hospitals are too saturated and I get too worried.) The problem is the second wave after the "cold weather" arrives. Be prepare to hit "full lockdown" as soon as it start increasing. Open when a little when he wave disappears, but you may need to close again. Continue with that until the vaccines arrive. With this simple strategy I got 32.3K deaths and a cost of 441B https://koronahra.cz/results/60e63272fecc84001a33a31a https://koronahra.cz/results/60e63272fecc84001a33a31a (Not in my first try.) Someone got 6.4K death and a cost of 268B, that is much better. Someone got 2.3K death and a cost of 342B, that looks like a good tradeoff. Someone got 40.1K death and a cost of 141B, that is very cheap if you don't care abut people. The graph in the finish scree has the result of other players. It's interesting to see that there is a lot possible improvement. (Perhaps also luck, some events are randomized.)
- Aeolun 5y ago
  I got 3600 dead at 1.2T. I guess there’s ways to improve on that by coming down hard on the first wave, where basically 70% of my deaths happened. I find it hard to impose a lot of restrictions when there’s basically 10 people per day infected, but suddenly it’s 500+/day.
  - pbhjpbhj 5y ago
    There was/is definitely a lot of people prone to what I call the Seatbelt Fallacy - 'why do we need seatbelts [airbags, ABS, etc.] when deaths in car accidents aren't even that high!??' - which becomes "we didn't need lockdown, hardly anyone died" ...
- john-shaffer 5y ago
  [spoiler alert] I found that fully closing schools works better than closing high-risk, and you can leave business fully open for significant periods. My best is 2,582 deaths at a cost of 385B. https://koronahra.cz/results/60e6550661cdc10019e509ce https://koronahra.cz/results/60e6550661cdc10019e509ce Masks and max 10 stay on the whole time. I close unis at +100 infections, close all schools at +200, close high-risk at +400, and essentials only at +800. Ease up on the restrictions when infections go down. I ignored those breakpoints and left things as open as possible during the warm weather period, since you can safely do that as long as you kept the initial outbreak under control. Edit: 2,112 deaths at 380B, just targeting +75/+150/+300/+600: https://koronahra.cz/results/60e65b5dfecc84001a33a3a3 https://koronahra.cz/results/60e65b5dfecc84001a33a3a3 Edit 2: 1,691 at 405B using the 2112 strat with slight adjustments based on intuition: https://koronahra.cz/results/60e65cc061cdc10019e509e6 https://koronahra.cz/results/60e65cc061cdc10019e509e6

Not really sure I understand this. If you play it long enough you bankrupt your country and the virus always wins. Is that the secret message, or do I just not know how to play?

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago

The way the model is set up, a zero-CoVID strategy is impossible. If you close the borders and impose a full lockdown on day 1, you still end up getting about 10 cases/day forever (I believe this is due to assumptions about imported cases). There are, however, countries that have achieved zero CoVID and then reopened and sustained zero CoVID. But this is only possible with strict border quarantine rules, extensive contact tracing and immediate mass testing whenever a new case shows up.

lmm 5y ago
> There are, however, countries that have achieved zero CoVID and then reopened and sustained zero CoVID. Is that actually true? The big success stories like Taiwan and Australia seem to keep getting imported cases and needing to lock down again.
- Robotbeat 5y ago
  New Zealand did it.
  - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
    As did China.
pbhjpbhj 5y ago
The assumption should also be existing cases of infection that are not yet symptomatic, or are totally asymptomatic. Borders are leaky too, but when the disease was found it was already well distributed, and with a long incubation period.

gus_massa 5y ago

[spoiler alert] With mask/max10/closeHR/CloseUni you can get a good enough result for the first wave until the summer holidays. Perhaps you can reopen a little more. (Max100 also work, but the hospitals are too saturated and I get too worried.) The problem is the second wave after the "cold weather" arrives. Be prepare to hit "full lockdown" as soon as it start increasing. Open when a little when he wave disappears, but you may need to close again. Continue with that until the vaccines arrive. With this simple strategy I got 32.3K deaths and a cost of 441B https://koronahra.cz/results/60e63272fecc84001a33a31a https://koronahra.cz/results/60e63272fecc84001a33a31a (Not in my first try.) Someone got 6.4K death and a cost of 268B, that is much better. Someone got 2.3K death and a cost of 342B, that looks like a good tradeoff. Someone got 40.1K death and a cost of 141B, that is very cheap if you don't care abut people. The graph in the finish scree has the result of other players. It's interesting to see that there is a lot possible improvement. (Perhaps also luck, some events are randomized.)

Aeolun 5y ago
I got 3600 dead at 1.2T. I guess there’s ways to improve on that by coming down hard on the first wave, where basically 70% of my deaths happened. I find it hard to impose a lot of restrictions when there’s basically 10 people per day infected, but suddenly it’s 500+/day.
- pbhjpbhj 5y ago
  There was/is definitely a lot of people prone to what I call the Seatbelt Fallacy - 'why do we need seatbelts [airbags, ABS, etc.] when deaths in car accidents aren't even that high!??' - which becomes "we didn't need lockdown, hardly anyone died" ...
john-shaffer 5y ago
[spoiler alert] I found that fully closing schools works better than closing high-risk, and you can leave business fully open for significant periods. My best is 2,582 deaths at a cost of 385B. https://koronahra.cz/results/60e6550661cdc10019e509ce https://koronahra.cz/results/60e6550661cdc10019e509ce Masks and max 10 stay on the whole time. I close unis at +100 infections, close all schools at +200, close high-risk at +400, and essentials only at +800. Ease up on the restrictions when infections go down. I ignored those breakpoints and left things as open as possible during the warm weather period, since you can safely do that as long as you kept the initial outbreak under control. Edit: 2,112 deaths at 380B, just targeting +75/+150/+300/+600: https://koronahra.cz/results/60e65b5dfecc84001a33a3a3 https://koronahra.cz/results/60e65b5dfecc84001a33a3a3 Edit 2: 1,691 at 405B using the 2112 strat with slight adjustments based on intuition: https://koronahra.cz/results/60e65cc061cdc10019e509e6 https://koronahra.cz/results/60e65cc061cdc10019e509e6