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The Taiwan saga will be another example of the 5 stages of acceptance. Right now the western world seems to be in denial. Once China does a small incursion into

by akomtu 5y ago

The Taiwan saga will be another example of the 5 stages of acceptance. Right now the western world seems to be in denial. Once China does a small incursion into Taiwan, we'll advance to the next stage - anger. Inability to stop China will take us to bargaining. When China ignores the west, we'll get into the depression stage. When CCP's troops start patrolling Taiwan streets, and I think it'll happen in just ten years, we'll reach acceptance. By that time, the US will better have fully functional foundries in Arizona.

api 5y ago
I heard it put this way once: the US can’t stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any more than China could stop a hypothetical US invasion of Cuba. In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the closer nation is right there. Note that I am leaving thermonuclear escalation off the table. Nobody really wins that one. I’m imagining a scoped conventional conflict in the form of an intervention.
- Retric 5y ago
  Given some warning the US could actually stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The US Navy has the second most powerful air force in the world just behind the US Air Force. That’s the rather insane scale we’ve invested into the current military. Cruse missiles are a different story, China could trivially destroy TSMC’s factories. That said, the US is hardly the only nation likely to react to such an invasion.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    I think that the US would not want to directly attack China, and China would not want to directly attack the US. The US would provide weapons, intelligence, etc. but would not fire on the Chinese because that would be an unlimited and uncontrolled escalation, in effect a declaration of war on a country actually larger than them, a nuclear power which government could not afford to be seen as weak and defeated. That's partly why the US have always refrained from entering into any formal obligation to intervene militarily. Likewise, I don't think it would be in China's interest to destroy TSMC's fabs. Quite the opposite, I think they would probably want to keep them intact if they can help it and resume business as usual as soon as possible.
  - publicola1990 5y ago
    US couldn't stop the Japanese from invading Philippines.
    - jimmygrapes 5y ago
      A lot has changed since then
- jollybean 5y ago
  China could easily stop a US invasion of Cuba merely by putting several garrisons of soldiers in Cuba. They probably could not stop an 'all in invasion' - of course - but that's not the point. The point would be to raise the cost significantly i.e. 'invading Cuba would mean war with China'. There are a lot of things the US could to do raise the cost of the invasion of Taiwan, but it's hard. Every move comes with a counter move. The US would have to coordinate with everyone else on this. They're trying to do that but it's hard.
- United857 5y ago
  The two scenarios are not comparable, US has 11 carriers, China only has 1-2 right now. The US could also use its forward bases in Japan and South Korea. China doesn't have any equivalent of those.
  - lmz 5y ago
    Why would it need carriers? The mainland is 200km away.
nradov 5y ago
It would be impossible for China to conduct a "small incursion" into the main island of Taiwan. Geography and logistics make it an all-or-nothing deal. A small amphibious or airborne force would be too vulnerable and there wouldn't be any way to sustain it. If an invasion comes it will be huge, like on the scale of the WW2 Normandy assault.
- beaunative 5y ago
  It will be nothing like Normandy besides that there would be a landing. Taiwan is nothing comparable Germany in WWII in so many senses.
  - greedo 5y ago
    Most of the studies and wargames have shown that invading Taiwan will be incredibly difficult. If Taiwan chooses to fight, they will be able to inflict serious casualties on PLA/PLAN forces. China's best plan is to slowly increase ties with Taiwan over time. But they don't seem to have the necessary patience (witness Hong Kong). From a military perspective, they could do a blockade, and I doubt the US or others would seriously try to break such a blockade.
    - BJBBB 5y ago
      Why do you say that the U.S. would not "seriously try to break such a blockade"? Logistics issues? Political issues? Economic issues?
      - greedo 5y ago
        Breaking the blockade would be extremely difficult to do for a variety of reasons. Primarily, unless the US was willing to attack mainland China, there's no way they could overcome the PLA/PLAN. And if the US attacks mainland China, the risk of the conflict going nuclear rises exponentially. If I were the PLAN, I would focus on three areas; MRBMs to keep the CVNs far far away, airpower over the region to keep Japan out, and submarines to enforce the blockade. They currently have enough DF-21 to make the USN very skittish about approaching within range of current carrier aircraft. There are countermeasures to the DF-21, particularly the targeting chain that can be disrupted, but that's dicey. The PLA currently has enough aircraft in the region to gain air superiority, though not air supremacy. Submarines are the real wild card. The US Navy's SSN fleet is stretched thin, and is in declining numbers compared to the PLAN fleet. Qualitatively, the USN is far superior, but... In terms of other ASW assets, the USN is woefully unprepared for fighting against an opponent with home turf advantage. The CVNs no longer carry organic ASW assets, and have lost a lot of the institutional knowledge learned during the Cold War. The surface fleet has also let ASW skills atrophy. All these combine to make it very unlikely the US would attempt to overcome a blockade in the next decade. If the US were to invest a significant amount of money above the current baseline in shipbuilding, this calculus might be different.

by akomtu 5y ago

api 5y ago

I heard it put this way once: the US can’t stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any more than China could stop a hypothetical US invasion of Cuba. In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the closer nation is right there. Note that I am leaving thermonuclear escalation off the table. Nobody really wins that one. I’m imagining a scoped conventional conflict in the form of an intervention.

Retric 5y ago
Given some warning the US could actually stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The US Navy has the second most powerful air force in the world just behind the US Air Force. That’s the rather insane scale we’ve invested into the current military. Cruse missiles are a different story, China could trivially destroy TSMC’s factories. That said, the US is hardly the only nation likely to react to such an invasion.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  I think that the US would not want to directly attack China, and China would not want to directly attack the US. The US would provide weapons, intelligence, etc. but would not fire on the Chinese because that would be an unlimited and uncontrolled escalation, in effect a declaration of war on a country actually larger than them, a nuclear power which government could not afford to be seen as weak and defeated. That's partly why the US have always refrained from entering into any formal obligation to intervene militarily. Likewise, I don't think it would be in China's interest to destroy TSMC's fabs. Quite the opposite, I think they would probably want to keep them intact if they can help it and resume business as usual as soon as possible.
- publicola1990 5y ago
  US couldn't stop the Japanese from invading Philippines.
  - jimmygrapes 5y ago
    A lot has changed since then
jollybean 5y ago
China could easily stop a US invasion of Cuba merely by putting several garrisons of soldiers in Cuba. They probably could not stop an 'all in invasion' - of course - but that's not the point. The point would be to raise the cost significantly i.e. 'invading Cuba would mean war with China'. There are a lot of things the US could to do raise the cost of the invasion of Taiwan, but it's hard. Every move comes with a counter move. The US would have to coordinate with everyone else on this. They're trying to do that but it's hard.
United857 5y ago
The two scenarios are not comparable, US has 11 carriers, China only has 1-2 right now. The US could also use its forward bases in Japan and South Korea. China doesn't have any equivalent of those.
- lmz 5y ago
  Why would it need carriers? The mainland is 200km away.

nradov 5y ago

It would be impossible for China to conduct a "small incursion" into the main island of Taiwan. Geography and logistics make it an all-or-nothing deal. A small amphibious or airborne force would be too vulnerable and there wouldn't be any way to sustain it. If an invasion comes it will be huge, like on the scale of the WW2 Normandy assault.

beaunative 5y ago
It will be nothing like Normandy besides that there would be a landing. Taiwan is nothing comparable Germany in WWII in so many senses.
- greedo 5y ago
  Most of the studies and wargames have shown that invading Taiwan will be incredibly difficult. If Taiwan chooses to fight, they will be able to inflict serious casualties on PLA/PLAN forces. China's best plan is to slowly increase ties with Taiwan over time. But they don't seem to have the necessary patience (witness Hong Kong). From a military perspective, they could do a blockade, and I doubt the US or others would seriously try to break such a blockade.
  - BJBBB 5y ago
    Why do you say that the U.S. would not "seriously try to break such a blockade"? Logistics issues? Political issues? Economic issues?
    - greedo 5y ago
      Breaking the blockade would be extremely difficult to do for a variety of reasons. Primarily, unless the US was willing to attack mainland China, there's no way they could overcome the PLA/PLAN. And if the US attacks mainland China, the risk of the conflict going nuclear rises exponentially. If I were the PLAN, I would focus on three areas; MRBMs to keep the CVNs far far away, airpower over the region to keep Japan out, and submarines to enforce the blockade. They currently have enough DF-21 to make the USN very skittish about approaching within range of current carrier aircraft. There are countermeasures to the DF-21, particularly the targeting chain that can be disrupted, but that's dicey. The PLA currently has enough aircraft in the region to gain air superiority, though not air supremacy. Submarines are the real wild card. The US Navy's SSN fleet is stretched thin, and is in declining numbers compared to the PLAN fleet. Qualitatively, the USN is far superior, but... In terms of other ASW assets, the USN is woefully unprepared for fighting against an opponent with home turf advantage. The CVNs no longer carry organic ASW assets, and have lost a lot of the institutional knowledge learned during the Cold War. The surface fleet has also let ASW skills atrophy. All these combine to make it very unlikely the US would attempt to overcome a blockade in the next decade. If the US were to invest a significant amount of money above the current baseline in shipbuilding, this calculus might be different.