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I am always interested in the second-order effects. If the automotive industry is 50% EV by say 2035/2040, what other industries does that affect? In other wo

I am always interested in the second-order effects. If the automotive industry is 50% EV by say 2035/2040, what other industries does that affect? In other words, if I cannot hope to raise 2BN but still want to help save the world, what start-ups should I start? I am thinking things like every parking space in a city will soon come with a parking meter / charge point / embedded wifi-mesh network. Other industries will piggy-back on the new battery standard(s) - my father-in-law just picked up a battery powered lawn mower ! Having one battery pack / interface for many home goods will be almost as transformative.

imtringued 5y ago
>what other industries does that affect? It would affect electricity usage by refineries.
solarkraft 5y ago
> but still want to help save the world Not sure how much of an impact you’re planning to have, but EVs are still fairly resource intensive in most metrics, especially manufacturing and space usage in cities. One option might be to help reducing those, by conceptualizing lighter vehicles, or a way to have fewer standing around (autonomous driving). Another option would be looking beyond electric cars. Almost any thing requires electricity, so improving its generation would have an immense impact. “Cars as we know them, but electric” is probably not the optimal future. Maybe there are better ways to get around. Besides those far out ideas and considering your battery interface point: Maybe it’d be possible to standardize some batteries for smaller vehicles/appliances. I’m also surprised there doesn’t seem to be an after-market for EV battery packs (as in: a new pack for your EV) yet (fun fact: I think Renault has DRM on its batteries).
- specialist 5y ago
  > conceptualizing lighter vehicles Horace Dediu (Asymco) advocates "micromobility". I still don't really know what all that entails. Bikes, scooters, hoverboards, ...? I've been binging on his misc podcasts for a while. I really like how he asks questions, does analysis. For instance: ~1.1b automobiles today, ~1.8b by 2050 (IIRC). Average lifetime of ICE vehicle is 30 yrs. So getting to carbon neutral just by replacing the current fleet won't happen fast enough. We'll need alternatives to automobiles, like public transit and scooters. https://micromobility.io https://micromobility.io
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    Scooters, bikes and hoverboards are all micromobility.
  - Gibbon1 5y ago
    What I've noticed with vehicles you have a last mile problem. Cars solve it but at huge cost both primary and externalized. With electric vehicles poised to cost less than gasoline powered ones, it's hard not to worry about Jevons paradox. Might be a wash if electric cars service life is significantly longer than gasoline powered ones. I digressed, things like electric bikes do partly solve the last mile problem. Biggest threat to their adoption is having to share the road with cars. My constant suggestion is grade separated bike lanes.
    - specialist 5y ago
      You might enjoy Dediu's thoughts on this stuff. I agree with him that we need to discuss automobiles and roads at the same time. I for one do not accept our current roads as a given. Changes will be required for self-driving, micromobility, etc.
specialist 5y ago
I think this is a great, constructive way to ponder. As a start, anything with a power cord. Taken to the extreme, repurposing all the products used in RVs for the home. Like why not have battery packs for ice boxes (fridges), stoves, etc? This will certainly help with (personal) resilience, eg future grid failures. I've been pondering personal heating devices. Like heated gloves and foot wear. (I now have severe chilblains.) Instead of heating the whole house, or room. (Ironically, my torso remains warm and so I sweat more.) Also battery powered therapeutic heat pads and whatnot would be handy too. The next thing I'm pondering is water usage. I'd like to direct my waste kitchen sink water (DWV) to my lawn. Maybe even reuse for flushing toilets. This is still disallowed in my jurisdiction, so I need parts and fixtures which can be quickly swapped out to pass inspections (eg selling my house). I don't understand anything about water treatment. What little I've read says I can't just catch the water in a cistern. It'll quickly go bad. So maybe there's dish soaps recipes or something that can help solve that. I'm also pondering After Plastic™, products which aren't based on fossil fuels. I recently tried bamboo tooth brushes (meh) and dental floss (terrific). I'd love to stop buying single use plastic stuff, plastic bins, plastic trash bags, ad nauseum.
zhdc1 5y ago
Consider what will eventually happen to European auto suppliers. Electric cars use significantly less parts. There are less things that need to be made, and they require significantly less people to make them. Electrification will take longer than people believe, but once it comes there will be adjustment period.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
kingsuper20 5y ago
Product idea (living in a place where the power gets turned off). Emergency electric start gas generator with downstream battery and inverter. Keeps battery full. Generator is sized to average load not peak and doesn't run all the time. Being a PG&E customer makes life interesting. The other business I find interesting is water catchment systems as the water goes away. It could be that your roof is entirely sufficient to provide household needs even in a drought year. Every year is one step forward and two steps back. The future's so bright, you gotta wear tinted safety glasses.
MrsPeaches 5y ago
Strong recommendation for Energy and Civilisation: A history [1] as a good introduction to the topic. Basically we in a transition from the oil age into the electricity age and specifically we are now seeing prime movers transition from being powered by oil (ICEs) to electricity (electrical motors). Think about what changed going from draft animals to steam and from steam to oil (e.g. you can’t make airplanes using a steam engine). What is fundamentally different between ICEs and electric motors? What new ways of transporting good does this engender? [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31850765-energy-and-civilization https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31850765-energy-and-civi...
- MrsPeaches 5y ago
  I would maybe say personal flight is a decent shout for where we could end up? What does infra look like if that is possible? Look at where flight was at the beginning of the 20th century and where it was 50 years later. In general personal mobility is a trend I can see being massive in the next 30-50 years. Also a fun fact: The peak use of draught animals in the US was in the 1920s. That’s almost 150 years after they started bing replaced by steam and had even moved into the early stages of the oil age. These transitions can take a looooong time.
Robotbeat 5y ago
Figure out a dirt cheap way to convert a regular outdoor outlet (ubiquitous already, on light poles and in landscaping, often used for holiday lighting or hedge trimmers, etc) into one that can be metered. Just a microntroller chip with Bluetooth or WiFi or NFC (or even just a number pad… could use a real time clock inside with an RSA token type solution) and a relay is all you need. The customer’s smartphone could handle the connection to the net. “Pay 15¢/kWh, and we’ll enable the relay for that amount of energy to be transferred.” (Or could be via time.) Apartment owners could also do this, as they almost all have outlets in their garages that they (infuriatingly) usually don’t let EV owners use. Some parking lots in the north have outlets for engine block heaters. Figure out how to do that for $50-100 worth of hardware (should be easy; I see smart outlets for less than that… $20 or even $10) and you’ve made a huge improvement on electric vehicle charging infrastructure. We already have ubiquitous electric vehicle charging infrastructure, it’s just that people don’t realize it, yet. Every BnB I’ve stayed at since getting a BEV/PHEV has had an outlet that I could use to charge when I asked. A LOT of even on-street parking has outlets within reach and they could be integrated into meters, too.
- lifeisstillgood 5y ago
  That's ... really interesting. There was a company that rented out people's driveways during the day - the idea of renting out the space in front of your house and the electricity supply from it to the kerb is ... interesting. 1. Park on my drive, use my electricity - that seems simple and no legal entanglements. 2. park on the public highway and then I stretch a cable to the kerb ... that is a minefield of installation and liability. Any good lawyers able to chime in?

imtringued 5y ago

>what other industries does that affect? It would affect electricity usage by refineries.

solarkraft 5y ago

> but still want to help save the world Not sure how much of an impact you’re planning to have, but EVs are still fairly resource intensive in most metrics, especially manufacturing and space usage in cities. One option might be to help reducing those, by conceptualizing lighter vehicles, or a way to have fewer standing around (autonomous driving). Another option would be looking beyond electric cars. Almost any thing requires electricity, so improving its generation would have an immense impact. “Cars as we know them, but electric” is probably not the optimal future. Maybe there are better ways to get around. Besides those far out ideas and considering your battery interface point: Maybe it’d be possible to standardize some batteries for smaller vehicles/appliances. I’m also surprised there doesn’t seem to be an after-market for EV battery packs (as in: a new pack for your EV) yet (fun fact: I think Renault has DRM on its batteries).

specialist 5y ago
> conceptualizing lighter vehicles Horace Dediu (Asymco) advocates "micromobility". I still don't really know what all that entails. Bikes, scooters, hoverboards, ...? I've been binging on his misc podcasts for a while. I really like how he asks questions, does analysis. For instance: ~1.1b automobiles today, ~1.8b by 2050 (IIRC). Average lifetime of ICE vehicle is 30 yrs. So getting to carbon neutral just by replacing the current fleet won't happen fast enough. We'll need alternatives to automobiles, like public transit and scooters. https://micromobility.io https://micromobility.io
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  Scooters, bikes and hoverboards are all micromobility.
- Gibbon1 5y ago
  What I've noticed with vehicles you have a last mile problem. Cars solve it but at huge cost both primary and externalized. With electric vehicles poised to cost less than gasoline powered ones, it's hard not to worry about Jevons paradox. Might be a wash if electric cars service life is significantly longer than gasoline powered ones. I digressed, things like electric bikes do partly solve the last mile problem. Biggest threat to their adoption is having to share the road with cars. My constant suggestion is grade separated bike lanes.
  - specialist 5y ago
    You might enjoy Dediu's thoughts on this stuff. I agree with him that we need to discuss automobiles and roads at the same time. I for one do not accept our current roads as a given. Changes will be required for self-driving, micromobility, etc.

specialist 5y ago

I think this is a great, constructive way to ponder. As a start, anything with a power cord. Taken to the extreme, repurposing all the products used in RVs for the home. Like why not have battery packs for ice boxes (fridges), stoves, etc? This will certainly help with (personal) resilience, eg future grid failures. I've been pondering personal heating devices. Like heated gloves and foot wear. (I now have severe chilblains.) Instead of heating the whole house, or room. (Ironically, my torso remains warm and so I sweat more.) Also battery powered therapeutic heat pads and whatnot would be handy too. The next thing I'm pondering is water usage. I'd like to direct my waste kitchen sink water (DWV) to my lawn. Maybe even reuse for flushing toilets. This is still disallowed in my jurisdiction, so I need parts and fixtures which can be quickly swapped out to pass inspections (eg selling my house). I don't understand anything about water treatment. What little I've read says I can't just catch the water in a cistern. It'll quickly go bad. So maybe there's dish soaps recipes or something that can help solve that. I'm also pondering After Plastic™, products which aren't based on fossil fuels. I recently tried bamboo tooth brushes (meh) and dental floss (terrific). I'd love to stop buying single use plastic stuff, plastic bins, plastic trash bags, ad nauseum.

zhdc1 5y ago

Consider what will eventually happen to European auto suppliers. Electric cars use significantly less parts. There are less things that need to be made, and they require significantly less people to make them. Electrification will take longer than people believe, but once it comes there will be adjustment period.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

kingsuper20 5y ago

Product idea (living in a place where the power gets turned off). Emergency electric start gas generator with downstream battery and inverter. Keeps battery full. Generator is sized to average load not peak and doesn't run all the time. Being a PG&E customer makes life interesting. The other business I find interesting is water catchment systems as the water goes away. It could be that your roof is entirely sufficient to provide household needs even in a drought year. Every year is one step forward and two steps back. The future's so bright, you gotta wear tinted safety glasses.

MrsPeaches 5y ago

Strong recommendation for Energy and Civilisation: A history [1] as a good introduction to the topic. Basically we in a transition from the oil age into the electricity age and specifically we are now seeing prime movers transition from being powered by oil (ICEs) to electricity (electrical motors). Think about what changed going from draft animals to steam and from steam to oil (e.g. you can’t make airplanes using a steam engine). What is fundamentally different between ICEs and electric motors? What new ways of transporting good does this engender? [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31850765-energy-and-civilization https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31850765-energy-and-civi...

MrsPeaches 5y ago
I would maybe say personal flight is a decent shout for where we could end up? What does infra look like if that is possible? Look at where flight was at the beginning of the 20th century and where it was 50 years later. In general personal mobility is a trend I can see being massive in the next 30-50 years. Also a fun fact: The peak use of draught animals in the US was in the 1920s. That’s almost 150 years after they started bing replaced by steam and had even moved into the early stages of the oil age. These transitions can take a looooong time.

Robotbeat 5y ago

Figure out a dirt cheap way to convert a regular outdoor outlet (ubiquitous already, on light poles and in landscaping, often used for holiday lighting or hedge trimmers, etc) into one that can be metered. Just a microntroller chip with Bluetooth or WiFi or NFC (or even just a number pad… could use a real time clock inside with an RSA token type solution) and a relay is all you need. The customer’s smartphone could handle the connection to the net. “Pay 15¢/kWh, and we’ll enable the relay for that amount of energy to be transferred.” (Or could be via time.) Apartment owners could also do this, as they almost all have outlets in their garages that they (infuriatingly) usually don’t let EV owners use. Some parking lots in the north have outlets for engine block heaters. Figure out how to do that for $50-100 worth of hardware (should be easy; I see smart outlets for less than that… $20 or even $10) and you’ve made a huge improvement on electric vehicle charging infrastructure. We already have ubiquitous electric vehicle charging infrastructure, it’s just that people don’t realize it, yet. Every BnB I’ve stayed at since getting a BEV/PHEV has had an outlet that I could use to charge when I asked. A LOT of even on-street parking has outlets within reach and they could be integrated into meters, too.

lifeisstillgood 5y ago
That's ... really interesting. There was a company that rented out people's driveways during the day - the idea of renting out the space in front of your house and the electricity supply from it to the kerb is ... interesting. 1. Park on my drive, use my electricity - that seems simple and no legal entanglements. 2. park on the public highway and then I stretch a cable to the kerb ... that is a minefield of installation and liability. Any good lawyers able to chime in?