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Generating electrical energy isn't difficult. Distributing it is. Balancing variable generation against variable demand is even more difficult. What you've for

Generating electrical energy isn't difficult. Distributing it is. Balancing variable generation against variable demand is even more difficult. What you've forgotten here is that doubling or tripling the carrying capacity of electrical infrastructure isn't a trivial task. Remember that in the 50s, electrical energy was generated at large sites like the Hoover dam or the James Bay project in Quebec. It was then distributed out to houses that didn't have many high capacity electrical appliances. Today, all that has changed with dishwashers, electric dryers and now EVs slowly becoming standard. You are making it seem like these infrastructure upgrades can be magicked into existence without decades of investment, planning and effort. The article is right - no country is ready for the sudden change. Watch as EVs go from a rich person's toy to the mainstream and the electrical infrastructure keeps collapsing dealing with the sustained surge in demand.

bryanlarsen 5y ago
Infrastructure is sized for peak power usage, so for those early evening times when somebody might have their air conditioner, range and clothes dryer running simultaneously. Electrification will significantly increase energy usage (kWh), but it has a much smaller impact on peak power (kW). Electric cars charge at night, electric heat pumps replace air conditioners, et cetera. Also, infrastructure was designed for rising demand. For infrastructure was built in the 60s the planners would say "demand is doubling every decade, so if we want our infrastructure to last 100 years..." Sure, there will be some places that don't have adequate infrastructure, but it will be a small fraction.
- Scoundreller 5y ago
  And just like the internet, the 'generation' is getting closer and closer to the customer. As netflix installs appliances in my region, we're also generating electricity at the rooftop or regional cogen systems. That parked electric car may very well back-feed into the grid to shave the peaks of demand. That clothes dryer might run 'slow' until it's peak pricing time, same with EV charging. My 'smart' thermostat already does it for HVAC. Everything else will too.
- eldaisfish 5y ago
  I don't think you have a good handle on how the distribution system is sized. Single, large loads like EVs at 10-30 kW were on nobody's radar even as recently as the 2010s. yes, infrastructure was designed for rising demand but not the sudden addition of 7 kW+ of capacity in multiple homes. A typical EV charger draws anywhere from 7 kW to 25 kW. That is the total connected load of more than one typical North American house. And typical pole-mounted transformers are around 50 -200 kVA. Two EVs added to the regular mix is all it takes to upset the balance.
  - bryanlarsen 5y ago
    An AC unit uses 3.5 kW and there are times everybody on the block is using them. The grid doesn't fall over. Also, where the heck do you find 25 kW home chargers? I've heard of 60A ones (13.2 kW), but ours is 7.2kW and is probably about twice as much as we need.
    - nradov 5y ago
      The grid in California falls over when everyone turns on the AC. Rolling blackouts are still a problem. Our state government and the electric utilities (especially PG&E) have terribly mismanaged the system through a mix of greed, incompetence, and caving in to special interests.
    - m463 5y ago
      I think the tesla ones can do ~20 kw: https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/wall-connector-eu/tesla-80a-wall-connector-installation-manua-en-v1.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/wall-connecto... Early tesla vehicles could actually charge from two home chargers simultaneously (though I'm uncertain how many amps total). and of course, there are homes with more than one car.
  - rsynnott 5y ago
    Starting in the early 90s, here in Ireland, instant heating electric showers, generally about 10kW, became very popular (they’re actually beginning to die out; many new homes have PV as part of meeting govt energy efficiency targets, so get tanked hot water ‘for free’). And 90s Ireland wasn’t winning any prizes for electrical infrastructure. I’m sure the US can manage some car chargers.
throw0101a 5y ago
> What you've forgotten here is that doubling or tripling the carrying capacity of electrical infrastructure isn't a trivial task. This has been studied recently, and the supposedly numbers aren't crazy: > The increase in transmission needs as renewable electricity supply grows, for all 80%-by-2050 renewable electricity scenarios, result in an average annual projected transmission and interconnection investment that is within the recent historical range for total investor-owned utility transmission expenditures in the United States (i.e., $2 billion/yr to $9 billion/yr from 1995 through 2008) (Pfeifenberger et al. 2009). > New transmission in the high renewable electricity scenarios was found to be concentrated in the middle and southwestern regions of the United States, mainly to access the high-quality wind and solar resources in those regions and to deliver generation from those resources to load centers. * https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/52409-ES.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/52409-ES.pdf * https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re-futures.html https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re-futures.html See "Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning": * https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/52409-4.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/52409-4.pdf December 2020 study from Princeton, "Net-Zero America" by 2050: * https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/12/15/big-affordable-effort-needed-america-reach-net-zero-emissions-2050-princeton-study https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/12/15/big-affordable-eff... * https://environmenthalfcentury.princeton.edu/ https://environmenthalfcentury.princeton.edu/ There are cost estimates for various scenarios: some or zero natgas, some or zero nuclear, mostly or all renewable. Summary news report of the study: * https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/15/race-to-zero-america-emissions-climate-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/15/race-to-zero...
- eldaisfish 5y ago
  The NREL report and most of what you posted focuses on transmission. What i'm referring to is the expansion capacity of distribution grids to suddenly accommodate large amounts of power from EVs. Simply posting a lot of links isn't usually a good strategy.
davedx 5y ago
Pure unsubstantiated FUD. The national grid in the UK has done tons of preparation - read about their Dynamic Containment program for example - but it’s much easier to just wave your hands and claim “we aren’t ready, it’s too hard”. This is such a typical FUD article from the climate change denying WSJ. Boring and predictable
jessaustin 5y ago
Generating electrical energy isn't difficult. That's good; it should be generated where it's needed and then distribution will be unnecessary.

bryanlarsen 5y ago

Infrastructure is sized for peak power usage, so for those early evening times when somebody might have their air conditioner, range and clothes dryer running simultaneously. Electrification will significantly increase energy usage (kWh), but it has a much smaller impact on peak power (kW). Electric cars charge at night, electric heat pumps replace air conditioners, et cetera. Also, infrastructure was designed for rising demand. For infrastructure was built in the 60s the planners would say "demand is doubling every decade, so if we want our infrastructure to last 100 years..." Sure, there will be some places that don't have adequate infrastructure, but it will be a small fraction.

Scoundreller 5y ago
And just like the internet, the 'generation' is getting closer and closer to the customer. As netflix installs appliances in my region, we're also generating electricity at the rooftop or regional cogen systems. That parked electric car may very well back-feed into the grid to shave the peaks of demand. That clothes dryer might run 'slow' until it's peak pricing time, same with EV charging. My 'smart' thermostat already does it for HVAC. Everything else will too.
eldaisfish 5y ago
I don't think you have a good handle on how the distribution system is sized. Single, large loads like EVs at 10-30 kW were on nobody's radar even as recently as the 2010s. yes, infrastructure was designed for rising demand but not the sudden addition of 7 kW+ of capacity in multiple homes. A typical EV charger draws anywhere from 7 kW to 25 kW. That is the total connected load of more than one typical North American house. And typical pole-mounted transformers are around 50 -200 kVA. Two EVs added to the regular mix is all it takes to upset the balance.
- bryanlarsen 5y ago
  An AC unit uses 3.5 kW and there are times everybody on the block is using them. The grid doesn't fall over. Also, where the heck do you find 25 kW home chargers? I've heard of 60A ones (13.2 kW), but ours is 7.2kW and is probably about twice as much as we need.
  - nradov 5y ago
    The grid in California falls over when everyone turns on the AC. Rolling blackouts are still a problem. Our state government and the electric utilities (especially PG&E) have terribly mismanaged the system through a mix of greed, incompetence, and caving in to special interests.
  - m463 5y ago
    I think the tesla ones can do ~20 kw: https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/wall-connector-eu/tesla-80a-wall-connector-installation-manua-en-v1.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/wall-connecto... Early tesla vehicles could actually charge from two home chargers simultaneously (though I'm uncertain how many amps total). and of course, there are homes with more than one car.
- rsynnott 5y ago
  Starting in the early 90s, here in Ireland, instant heating electric showers, generally about 10kW, became very popular (they’re actually beginning to die out; many new homes have PV as part of meeting govt energy efficiency targets, so get tanked hot water ‘for free’). And 90s Ireland wasn’t winning any prizes for electrical infrastructure. I’m sure the US can manage some car chargers.

throw0101a 5y ago

> What you've forgotten here is that doubling or tripling the carrying capacity of electrical infrastructure isn't a trivial task. This has been studied recently, and the supposedly numbers aren't crazy: > The increase in transmission needs as renewable electricity supply grows, for all 80%-by-2050 renewable electricity scenarios, result in an average annual projected transmission and interconnection investment that is within the recent historical range for total investor-owned utility transmission expenditures in the United States (i.e., $2 billion/yr to $9 billion/yr from 1995 through 2008) (Pfeifenberger et al. 2009). > New transmission in the high renewable electricity scenarios was found to be concentrated in the middle and southwestern regions of the United States, mainly to access the high-quality wind and solar resources in those regions and to deliver generation from those resources to load centers. * https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/52409-ES.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/52409-ES.pdf * https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re-futures.html https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re-futures.html See "Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission Planning": * https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/52409-4.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/52409-4.pdf December 2020 study from Princeton, "Net-Zero America" by 2050: * https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/12/15/big-affordable-effort-needed-america-reach-net-zero-emissions-2050-princeton-study https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/12/15/big-affordable-eff... * https://environmenthalfcentury.princeton.edu/ https://environmenthalfcentury.princeton.edu/ There are cost estimates for various scenarios: some or zero natgas, some or zero nuclear, mostly or all renewable. Summary news report of the study: * https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/15/race-to-zero-america-emissions-climate-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/15/race-to-zero...

eldaisfish 5y ago
The NREL report and most of what you posted focuses on transmission. What i'm referring to is the expansion capacity of distribution grids to suddenly accommodate large amounts of power from EVs. Simply posting a lot of links isn't usually a good strategy.

davedx 5y ago

Pure unsubstantiated FUD. The national grid in the UK has done tons of preparation - read about their Dynamic Containment program for example - but it’s much easier to just wave your hands and claim “we aren’t ready, it’s too hard”. This is such a typical FUD article from the climate change denying WSJ. Boring and predictable

jessaustin 5y ago

Generating electrical energy isn't difficult. That's good; it should be generated where it's needed and then distribution will be unnecessary.