3 ms·

ballistic trajectory versus active evasive behavior.

filmfact 5y ago
Exactly - mortars predictable trajectory against a background free of ground clutter make them easy to predict the future location of. A drone optimally randomly dodging at treetop height is a much more difficult target.
- imtringued 5y ago
  Why the hell would you dodge at tree top height? That makes absolutely no sense. Just fly a few centimeters off the ground without dodging and no air defense is going to hit you in a civilian area.
NovemberWhiskey 5y ago
https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a426717.pdf https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a426717.pdf A target with a 300mm frontal diameter, capable of evading at 10g, is expected to require 6 rounds to achieve a P_hit of 0.5 at 200m range, based on the parameters of your typical Phalanx CIWS. Said Phalanx weapon system might fire a burst of 1s duration in such an engagement, which is 75 rounds. For a missile engagement, that's a problematic number, but for a drone that's probably only moving a few dozen m/s and carrying a small payload, it's an entirely satisfactory engagement. Phalanx is an early 1980s weapon system. The Army is going to be fielding directed-energy SHORAD systems next year, equipped with 50kW lasers.
- davidgould 5y ago
  Phalanx usually has about 1500 rounds ready, so 20 drones at 75 rounds each will run it out. Phalanx is large, heavy, and costly, and can't be readily be used in built up areas at low angles. A few dozen m/s is probably a good estimate for quadcopter style drones, but low hundreds m/s should be easy for fixed wing drones, so at 200 meter engagement range (that paper makes it pretty clear that maneuvering targets are hard beyond that) there is only time to hit a few drones before they arrive. So maybe drone swarms will work even against current CIWS.
  - imtringued 5y ago
    >So maybe drone swarms will work even against current CIWS. Sure, but current drone swarms wouldn't.
imtringued 5y ago
Or just fly near the ground so that air defense will kill the target of the drone...

Exactly - mortars predictable trajectory against a background free of ground clutter make them easy to predict the future location of. A drone optimally randomly dodging at treetop height is a much more difficult target.

imtringued 5y ago
Why the hell would you dodge at tree top height? That makes absolutely no sense. Just fly a few centimeters off the ground without dodging and no air defense is going to hit you in a civilian area.

NovemberWhiskey 5y ago

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a426717.pdf https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a426717.pdf A target with a 300mm frontal diameter, capable of evading at 10g, is expected to require 6 rounds to achieve a P_hit of 0.5 at 200m range, based on the parameters of your typical Phalanx CIWS. Said Phalanx weapon system might fire a burst of 1s duration in such an engagement, which is 75 rounds. For a missile engagement, that's a problematic number, but for a drone that's probably only moving a few dozen m/s and carrying a small payload, it's an entirely satisfactory engagement. Phalanx is an early 1980s weapon system. The Army is going to be fielding directed-energy SHORAD systems next year, equipped with 50kW lasers.

davidgould 5y ago
Phalanx usually has about 1500 rounds ready, so 20 drones at 75 rounds each will run it out. Phalanx is large, heavy, and costly, and can't be readily be used in built up areas at low angles. A few dozen m/s is probably a good estimate for quadcopter style drones, but low hundreds m/s should be easy for fixed wing drones, so at 200 meter engagement range (that paper makes it pretty clear that maneuvering targets are hard beyond that) there is only time to hit a few drones before they arrive. So maybe drone swarms will work even against current CIWS.
- imtringued 5y ago
  >So maybe drone swarms will work even against current CIWS. Sure, but current drone swarms wouldn't.

imtringued 5y ago

Or just fly near the ground so that air defense will kill the target of the drone...