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The European Union officially bans its airspace to Belarusian companies
- throwaway4good 5y agoI think the broader issue is that eu risks losing access to Russian airspace which would be very costly for us.
- adriancr 5y agoIn that case Russia also loses access to EU airspace.
- cameldrv 5y agoIt would definitely be annoying for EU airlines, but the EU market is a lot more important for Russian airlines than Russia is for the EU airlines. For the EU airlines, losing overflight rights would make flights to China, Korea, and Japan about ~20% longer, but it would also mean that they wouldn't have to pay Russian overflight fees, which are about $400 million a year. Not paying these fees offsets some of the additional costs of going around, and Russia loses the overflight fees.
- throwaway4good 5y agoLong haul flights are still subdued due to COVID which means we can play these games at modest cost. However longer term, I think things will normalize wrt airspace including in Belarus. That Russia can make 400 m in fees means the fuel cost and cost of longer flights going around Russia is worth more.
- cameldrv 5y agoYes but perhaps it doesn't matter as much as you'd think to the European airlines. Presumably Russia is charging what the market will bear in overflight fees. If flying over Russia is an option, airlines that choose to go around pay fuel/operational costs for the extra two hours of flying time, but they also must charge less for tickets, because their competitors that overfly Russia get there two hours sooner. If EU airlines categorically can't overfly Russia, their only economic loss is the extra flying time, not the reduced ticket prices from taking longer, since their competitors are on the same playing field. The winners in this would presumably be Turkish and the Gulf airlines.
- MomoXenosaga 5y agoPutin did not approve nor order what Loekashenko did. The dictator is a loose cannon.
- jeltz 5y agoI doubt they will because then the EU would surely retaliate which would mean Russian airlines lose access to the EU.
- sam_lowry_ 5y agoThis already happened a couple of days ago. Russia did not approve flight plans for 2 French passenger planes, Germany did the same to two cargo planes, and the matter was resolved by the next day. This also precipitated the need to an EU-wide response on Belarus hijacking a passenger plane.
- danuker 5y agoFor once I am happy that the EU made the right decision. Unlike some past ones that still frustrate me today: - https://danuker.go.ro/eu-copyright-directive.html https://danuker.go.ro/eu-copyright-directive.html - https://danuker.go.ro/gdpranoia.html https://danuker.go.ro/gdpranoia.html
- hulitu 5y ago> For once I am happy that the EU made the right decision. Until everybody makes the right decision and you will not be able to fly anymore. > Unlike some past ones that still frustrate me today: > - https://danuker.go.ro/eu-copyright-directive.html https://danuker.go.ro/eu-copyright-directive.html > - https://danuker.go.ro/gdpranoia.html https://danuker.go.ro/gdpranoia.html Welcome to EU. Its oppinon depends on the name of the person boarding the plane.
- ben_w 5y ago> Its oppinon depends on the name of the person boarding the plane. Is there even one country where that is not so?
- Glavnokoman 5y agoProbably not. But some declare themselves to be the moral leaders and having values and bringing light and whats not. Hence the "welcome" (probably, I am not really sure what the parent poster actually meant).
- steego 5y agoThe EU alienating themselves from Belarus makes Putin a sad panda.
- baybal2 5y agoI do not understand what you mean
- GoOnThenDoTell 5y agoRussia wants to project power by standing by its neighbor but finds that doing so isn’t making a meaningful difference
- adventured 5y agoThat's not what Russia wants in this situation. They want Belarus isolated. It's ideal (for Putin's Russia) that the EU and US crack down harshly on Belarus, isolate them, and drive them into Russia's arms out of desperation. Lukashenko has been resisting a union with Russia for some time and using the West as a hedge, a way to create at least the illusion of an alternative to Russia's arms. With that gone, his options dwindle significantly, which is what Russia wants to see happen. There is nowhere else to turn, and few allies, other than Russia. If you're Putin, what you want in this context, is for the economy of Belarus to get smashed to pieces, and Belarus to get entirely isolated politically in regards to the West.
- Glavnokoman 5y agoIt is funny how everybody knows what Russia wants and what is the "Putin's secret plan".
- unicornporn 5y agoIt's Hacker News after all. :)
- steego 5y ago
- User23 5y agoCan anyone with subject matter expertise please explain whether or not this will have any practical effect on the Belarussian regime?
- MomoXenosaga 5y agoSo long as the military and intelligence agencies don't switch sides nothing will change. Revolutions aren't won by the people they are won by soldiers.
- nomoreplease 5y ago> Revolutions aren't won by the people they are won by soldiers. While I might agree with you in these post-modern times, this is not accurate to all of history.
- DamnYuppie 5y agoTo all of human history it is not, but it is the overwhelming majority of cases.
- rurban 5y agoThe other theory are mass strikes, as seen very recently. A regime won't survive ongoing mass strikes.
- 6foot4_82iq 5y agoLukashenko profits by playing the EU off against Russia. Banning/sanctioning Belarus naturally drives the country further towards Russia. The EU attempts to offset this by simultaneously dangling a €3B carrot: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_2685 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_...
- skissane 5y agoI think this is bad for Lukashenko. The more the EU sanctions Belarus, the more Belarus has to rely on Russia. But the more Belarus has to rely on Russia, the greater Russia's power over Belarus, and the greater the likelihood that Belarus turns into a Russian puppet state in which all the real power and real decisions are being made in Moscow. That outcome threatens to deprive Lukashenko of real power and turn him into a mere figurehead.
- askonomm 5y agoGiven that governments have helped overturn regimes before, why isn't this being done now? Clearly it would benefit the Belarussian people (friends I have there are struggling a lot) as well as EU. Or are we just afraid of Russia too much still?
- throwaway4good 5y agoI am sure its being done right now. “We” just don’t talk about it.
- londons_explore 5y agoWho will do it? Russia won't, because they're quite happy with the situation. The EU won't, because Russia would intervene with any sign of Belarusian leaders getting 'sick'.
- pjc50 5y agoIt has a bad track record, and will definitely see counter-intervetion by Russia. What sort of intervention did you have in mind? And what's the "then what" plan for the subsequent twenty years?
- kevin_thibedeau 5y agoThey will turn off the flow of gas to Germany which made a strategic blunder by moving too quickly to abandon nuclear power. Russia has northern europe by the balls every time winter rolls around.
- skissane 5y agoIf anyone is interested in reading the actual legislation, here it is: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ:L:2021:197I:FULL&from=EN https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ:L...
- golergka 5y agoGood. I made a comment 11 days ago about how it will probably end with nothing, and I'm very glad to be proven wrong: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27262707 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27262707 As a Russian citizen, EU and US need to get stop just "being concerned" and do more real stuff like this to put pressure on these dictatorships. We desperately need to get these bastards out of office and into the prison, and we need your help.
- 0x0nyandesu 5y agoI'm an American born in Crimea. The only reason my family was able to finally leave Ukraine when the Soviet Union fell apart is because of the self imposed cultural and economic blockade by the Soviets for 50 years. A whole generation of people lived and died in that time thinking of western music, jeans, movies, and tech as luxuries. My grandpa who lives in the USA now still talks about the Panasonic color tv he managed to get in 1989. Back then a completely black market luxury. Today a Russian actually has way more freedom than they did in those days. Free travel and the internet have completely changed everything. It will be painful for the Russian people but the best thing western economies can do to hit Russia where it hurts is deny travel entry and conduct a total economic and telecommunication blockade. No credit cards, no internet, no travel, no student visas. Nothing. The oligarchs know they can just live a western life style in Russia and still have a house in every tax Haven in the world. They send their kids to top universities in Europe and the United States while piliging the Russian people. If you leave Moscow Russian roads are garbage, schools are falling apart, and vodka freezes when you put it in the freezer. Russia is so vast that every Russian could be living in a Midwestern style mcmansion and yet everyone lives in gray falling apart квартири.
- petre 5y agoWhat would this accomplish? Create a new Soviet Union? Why punish common Russians for the actions of the Russian "elites"? Put Putin, his oligarchs and maybe their direct relatives and other criminals on a no travel and asset freeze list and that's it. Well off Russians travel abroad to Turkey, Egypt and Cyprus anyway. I really doubt Egypt or Turkey would play by the US playbook. Why bar these innocent people from travelling, since they're just minding their own business? Being Russian doesn't make one a Putin cheerleader. Of course, a few "tourists" like the ones who poisoned Serghei Skripal and his daughter will slip through, just put them on the naughty list and carry on.