4 ms·

These large-scale war games aren't just an opinion or a white paper though. Maybe better to ask something like how often an unconventional win in a war game cou

by rm445 5y ago

These large-scale war games aren't just an opinion or a white paper though. Maybe better to ask something like how often an unconventional win in a war game could actually be replicated by an adversary in real life. I seem to recall a similar response to massed small boats (simulating) taking out a U.S. carrier in war games a few years ago. Implying that the Persian Gulf is far more dangerous than previously understood. AIUI the Navy did nothing but cry foul. Maybe the strategy has been changed in response since.

fmajid 5y ago
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/aug/21/usa.julianborger https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/aug/21/usa.julianborg... General Van Riper used low-tech but effective techniques like using motorcycle messengers to transmit orders in a way that could not be intercepted by US ELINT/COMINT or blocked by jamming. We are lucky Saddam did not have inventive Marine generals, because any general smart enough to be effective would have been eliminated as a potential threat to his regime.
- ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
  > because any general smart enough to be effective would have been eliminated as a potential threat to his regime. Saved our asses in the European theater, in WWII. Hitler was an insecure micromanager. His generals represented generations of military expertise. They were really good. There's a number of places where Germany could have won the war, but were short-circuited by der dumkopf fuhrer
  - fighterpilot 5y ago
    I'm not sure about that. His generals really screwed up the Eastern theatre in the late 1940s. Hitler knew they needed to secure the oil in the Caucasus but the generals were myopically focused on an Eastern advance and on securing useless symbolic military wins that contributed nothing towards the oil effort. It's because they weren't capable of understanding the dire economic need for oil and were too zoned in on their domain of expertise (military engagement). Hitler for all his faults was one of the few who knew that the only important stratetic objective at that point was oil. He failed to get a number of his generals on that same understanding, and in some cases these generals sabotaged the oil effort.
    - ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
      That makes sense. I remember reading about that, but I guess it didn't sink in. Oil was very important to a mechanized army.
      - fighterpilot 5y ago
        Exactly. Most people think the Eastern front was an act of lunacy. In reality it was an act of utter necessity. Hitler's only chance of potentially winning WW2 (if there ever was a real chance) was to capture more oil in Eastern Europe. They were running on the fumes of synthetic oil created from coal at that point. Stalin knew Hitler's objectives well because of how hard Hitler was pushing for oil in negotiations before they became foes, and strategically positioned Russia's army in a way to block Hitler's advance specifically to key oil locations, while leaving other locations relatively weaker.
        lucas_membrane 5y ago
        > before they became foes They were foes before they became foes. While it had the non-aggression pact, Germany could have easily persuaded Russia to give it a pass on acquiring oil by aggression in the Middle East. Germany had two reasons to not do this -- a long supply line for oil to Germany from the Middle East would have been impossible to defend if Russia wanted to sever it, and German territorial acquisitions in the Middle East would be of little value as real estate on which German people could be settled to live a prosperous Germanic lifestyle. Dictators planning world domination do not publish their enemy lists.
        nradov 5y ago
        I think many people fail to understand that during WW2 the Wehrmacht was often forced to rely on horse carts for transporting supplies to the front. They didn't have fuel for trucks.
        jabl 5y ago
        They didn't largely have trucks either. The 'blitzkrieg' part with tanks and motorized infantry was a small fraction of the entire army. The rest marched on foot or were transported on trains.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Hitler's problem, IMHO and only militarily, was that he was right more often than not in 39 and 40. He failed to figure out why, so. As a result, he thought working against military expertise was the silver bullet. That, and that there never was a real chance to win a conventional war against the allies. Another general that comes to mind os Field Marshal Haig. He wanted a break through on the Western Front in WW1. He got a war of attrition, which worked for him and not for the Germans. So he thought going for a break through was the way to go. It worked in the end, but for the wrong reasons. That being said, a lot of German WW2 generals are over hyped, first on their memoirs and then by anti-communist "propaganda".
- onepointsixC 5y ago
  You're missing the part where those motorcycle messengers move at the speed of light, that the speed boats used were tiny commercial ones which could have never loaded let alone fired the heavy cruise missiles used and that blue force's defenses were off because the simulator otherwise would unintentionally target civilian shipping and aviation. If the Iranians could have they would have done so already. There's a reason why they had resorted to militias and sectarian violence in Iraq instead.
  - lumost 5y ago
    > If the Iranians could have they would have done so already. There's a reason why they had resorted to militias and sectarian violence in Iraq instead. A successful strike on a US carrier group would inevitably lead to large scale reprisals on both the attacking force and the nation launching the attack. Iran wouldn't kill a carrier just to prove they could, and would instead reserve such an attack for the event of a Carrier group attacking something of existential importance to the Iranian state.
  - fmajid 5y ago
    As the old joke goes, Iran will fight America to the last Iraqi…

by rm445 5y ago

fmajid 5y ago

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/aug/21/usa.julianborger https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/aug/21/usa.julianborg... General Van Riper used low-tech but effective techniques like using motorcycle messengers to transmit orders in a way that could not be intercepted by US ELINT/COMINT or blocked by jamming. We are lucky Saddam did not have inventive Marine generals, because any general smart enough to be effective would have been eliminated as a potential threat to his regime.

ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
> because any general smart enough to be effective would have been eliminated as a potential threat to his regime. Saved our asses in the European theater, in WWII. Hitler was an insecure micromanager. His generals represented generations of military expertise. They were really good. There's a number of places where Germany could have won the war, but were short-circuited by der dumkopf fuhrer
- fighterpilot 5y ago
  I'm not sure about that. His generals really screwed up the Eastern theatre in the late 1940s. Hitler knew they needed to secure the oil in the Caucasus but the generals were myopically focused on an Eastern advance and on securing useless symbolic military wins that contributed nothing towards the oil effort. It's because they weren't capable of understanding the dire economic need for oil and were too zoned in on their domain of expertise (military engagement). Hitler for all his faults was one of the few who knew that the only important stratetic objective at that point was oil. He failed to get a number of his generals on that same understanding, and in some cases these generals sabotaged the oil effort.
  - ChrisMarshallNY 5y ago
    That makes sense. I remember reading about that, but I guess it didn't sink in. Oil was very important to a mechanized army.
    - fighterpilot 5y ago
      Exactly. Most people think the Eastern front was an act of lunacy. In reality it was an act of utter necessity. Hitler's only chance of potentially winning WW2 (if there ever was a real chance) was to capture more oil in Eastern Europe. They were running on the fumes of synthetic oil created from coal at that point. Stalin knew Hitler's objectives well because of how hard Hitler was pushing for oil in negotiations before they became foes, and strategically positioned Russia's army in a way to block Hitler's advance specifically to key oil locations, while leaving other locations relatively weaker.
      - lucas_membrane 5y ago
        > before they became foes They were foes before they became foes. While it had the non-aggression pact, Germany could have easily persuaded Russia to give it a pass on acquiring oil by aggression in the Middle East. Germany had two reasons to not do this -- a long supply line for oil to Germany from the Middle East would have been impossible to defend if Russia wanted to sever it, and German territorial acquisitions in the Middle East would be of little value as real estate on which German people could be settled to live a prosperous Germanic lifestyle. Dictators planning world domination do not publish their enemy lists.
      - nradov 5y ago
        I think many people fail to understand that during WW2 the Wehrmacht was often forced to rely on horse carts for transporting supplies to the front. They didn't have fuel for trucks.
        jabl 5y ago
        They didn't largely have trucks either. The 'blitzkrieg' part with tanks and motorized infantry was a small fraction of the entire army. The rest marched on foot or were transported on trains.
- hef19898 5y ago
  Hitler's problem, IMHO and only militarily, was that he was right more often than not in 39 and 40. He failed to figure out why, so. As a result, he thought working against military expertise was the silver bullet. That, and that there never was a real chance to win a conventional war against the allies. Another general that comes to mind os Field Marshal Haig. He wanted a break through on the Western Front in WW1. He got a war of attrition, which worked for him and not for the Germans. So he thought going for a break through was the way to go. It worked in the end, but for the wrong reasons. That being said, a lot of German WW2 generals are over hyped, first on their memoirs and then by anti-communist "propaganda".
onepointsixC 5y ago
You're missing the part where those motorcycle messengers move at the speed of light, that the speed boats used were tiny commercial ones which could have never loaded let alone fired the heavy cruise missiles used and that blue force's defenses were off because the simulator otherwise would unintentionally target civilian shipping and aviation. If the Iranians could have they would have done so already. There's a reason why they had resorted to militias and sectarian violence in Iraq instead.
- lumost 5y ago
  > If the Iranians could have they would have done so already. There's a reason why they had resorted to militias and sectarian violence in Iraq instead. A successful strike on a US carrier group would inevitably lead to large scale reprisals on both the attacking force and the nation launching the attack. Iran wouldn't kill a carrier just to prove they could, and would instead reserve such an attack for the event of a Carrier group attacking something of existential importance to the Iranian state.
- fmajid 5y ago
  As the old joke goes, Iran will fight America to the last Iraqi…