7 ms·

It would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essential

It would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essentials. Other societies might ration resources on a need basis.

LeoPanthera 5y ago
This is a preppers fantasy, not reality. Engines and generators would not suddenly stop working. Any electronics inside even a lightly shielded building (or even just a grounded metal case) would survive. It would suck for a short time - but only a short time.
- sci_prog 5y ago
  How about the effect on all the satellites? I think th Carrington event size one would be catastrophic in the modern day. Imagine large urban areas going losing power for days or weeks. No electricity and no running water. Pretty scary stuff.
  - LeoPanthera 5y ago
    The loss of satellites does not imply power outages and it especially does not imply no running water. I'm not saying it wouldn't be disruptive, but people seem to have a fetish for disaster. Society is resilient, and life would return to near-normal within weeks, if not days, I predict.
    - sci_prog 5y ago
      I never implied that the loss of satellite = loss of power and water. I'm just saying that even a smaller solar flare (Compared to the Carrington event) cause large disturbances. Look at the 1989 that left Quebec and millions without power for 9 hours. Now imagine an entire country/continent losing power almost simultaneously.
      - swader999 5y ago
        If the grid goes down nationwide for any length of time it's worse than any event in the last two hundred years. Spent nuclear fuel pool failure is one thing to consider.
    - tremon 5y ago
      Not directly, no. But the water plants do require electricity to pump/filter/sanitize water to fill their reservoirs. A prolonged outage will cause the clean-water reservoirs to drain empty.
- King-Aaron 5y ago
  I have wondered about this. From my understanding the reason main power lines etc are affected is that the long cables turn into an antenna of sorts which allows induction to occur from the CMe. So things like small electronics etc shouldn't be affected. However, that's where I wonder about the "shouldn't" part. Wouldn't a large CME like this cause excessive power surges, which modern electronics don't respond well to? i.e. nearby lightning strikes can kill a computer or microwave even if you've got a circuit breaker, so wouldn't the grid suddenly having a massive surge go through it still be a cause for concern? Or are we talking voltage/amp levels below that of a lightning strike?
  - o-__-o 5y ago
    You need a better ground and surge protector if nearby lightening strikes are frying your electronics. I would assume an EMP/CME event would also be covered so long as it doesn’t surpass the rating of your protector (assuming whole house suppressor or battery backup, your wimpy surge protector strip probably won’t survive)
- macintux 5y ago
  Isn’t the big concern around transformers? Every time this topic (or EMPs) comes up, the concern is raised that there are effectively no spare transformers (relative on a global scale) available and that building new ones takes years.
  - Arainach 5y ago
    It's certainly a significant problem, and one that would cause some intense short-term pain, AND one that we should just bite the trivial cost and make a spare set somewhere for, but...... It would take years in normal times. In a crisis like this, you'd see resources allocated to transformers on the scale of (perhaps greater than) that allocated to COVID-19 vaccines and PPE, and that time scale would almost certainly be dramatically reduced.
    - macintux 5y ago
      After what Texas experienced, a dramatic reduction hardly seems sufficient.
      - SyzygistSix 5y ago
        >After what Texas experienced What are you referring to?
        matt_kantor 5y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis
hourislate 5y ago
The 3rd world would be fine, the first world would fall apart. Just a few weeks without power is enough to bring the USA down onto it's knees.
- xeromal 5y ago
  I think major cities would fall apart but I can speak from experience that the where I grew up in the deep south would fare just fine. Still lots of old world knowledge left to keep local farms and towns running. Of course it would be the stone age but a lot of people live for it there.
  - XorNot 5y ago
    Models of major disruptions from other countries don't support this. In general, urban areas do quite well because neighbors and communities look after each other, whereas as isolated communities fall over as soon as they run out of something. Distribution is also easier in the cities due to population density. In general there's a fiction pushed by people who live in lower density areas that somehow they're tougher or more caring or something - that for some reason everyone in cities is just waiting for a moment to suddenly slaughter each other. It doesn't happen.
    - xeromal 5y ago
      Fair enough. I don't have the data to back it up. What countries do you have as examples for me to inform myself with?
      - weagle05 5y ago
        I too would be interested to view these models. Coming from a rural background, people in my hometown still have gardens and hunt/fish. We're one, maybe two, generations removed from people producing most of their own food. I don't see how cities deal when they can't refrigerate food and the supply chain is interrupted.
mc32 5y ago
The more interesting thing to know is whether military sats are shielded enough for these events and who would come out better after one. There’d be advantages for the one with the most remaining capability.
vmception 5y ago
Enough of us have paper wallets and easily regenerable mnemonic phrases. Some people will be able to trade for essentials at arbitrarily large amounts.
- kadoban 5y ago
  You're saying that in the event of a worldwide, extended loss of power and communications, the currency you'll use will be the one that only exists, in any useful form, on a worldwide communications network, using loads of power? What am I missing?
  - vmception 5y ago
    you are missing that: a) an immediate steep drop in difficult will allow the network to resolve transactions without loads of power, and the few nodes online will still comprise the network. some networks have much longer difficulty adjustment periods and they will be debilitated for months as blocks will not come, other networks have much shorter adjustment periods and will generate new blocks in minutes b) that transactions can be signed offline and broadcast eventually, far far in the future. c) alternatively, in a temporarily trusted environment, physical notes with private keys can be handed to someone else in exchange for goods and services. anybody can check the current balance with their own copy of the chain state without the internet, the date/block height of the physical notes balance should be stated alongside the note and anybody with a chain after that block height can verify it. if a provider really wants the latest copy of the chain to accept these notes, order it on a physical disk shipped to you and verify the checksum with multiple sources. d) this means the user can exchange for goods and services without the internet, and the people that are still connected to other nodes such as a radio tower or internet cafe can act as tellers at banks and broadcast transactions periodically for people. better than trading bottlecaps.
    - kadoban 5y ago
      The network would either fragment or die. Depending on how many local/regional networks still exist or are brought up, there would be too many forks to count and then any spends are impossible to really rely on, or just no stable forks at all. You can sign things offline, sure, but you can't really verify them. I could spend the same coins a thousand times if the people accepting them can't reliably check for verifications using the same consistent chain. I don't even understand how the scheme in "c" would work to be honest, and I have a decent background in crypto and cryptocoins. How many people are going to be able to make that work? I just can't see any of that happening. I'd expect a combination of a barter economy, some precious metals and whatever physical currency is around.
bserge 5y ago
Toilet paper hoarding in these scenarios is always funny. Look, you're not going to be flushing precious water down the toilet (if sewage even works), you will be shitting in a hole somewhere outside. In which case any paper, rags or big leaves will do just fine :D
- amelius 5y ago
  Didn't Apple make it completely obvious that people will do everything for only a tiny bit more convenience? Anyone owning toilet paper in an apocalyptic world will be king!
  - f6v 5y ago
    Are you referring to the TV show?

LeoPanthera 5y ago

This is a preppers fantasy, not reality. Engines and generators would not suddenly stop working. Any electronics inside even a lightly shielded building (or even just a grounded metal case) would survive. It would suck for a short time - but only a short time.

sci_prog 5y ago
How about the effect on all the satellites? I think th Carrington event size one would be catastrophic in the modern day. Imagine large urban areas going losing power for days or weeks. No electricity and no running water. Pretty scary stuff.
- LeoPanthera 5y ago
  The loss of satellites does not imply power outages and it especially does not imply no running water. I'm not saying it wouldn't be disruptive, but people seem to have a fetish for disaster. Society is resilient, and life would return to near-normal within weeks, if not days, I predict.
  - sci_prog 5y ago
    I never implied that the loss of satellite = loss of power and water. I'm just saying that even a smaller solar flare (Compared to the Carrington event) cause large disturbances. Look at the 1989 that left Quebec and millions without power for 9 hours. Now imagine an entire country/continent losing power almost simultaneously.
    - swader999 5y ago
      If the grid goes down nationwide for any length of time it's worse than any event in the last two hundred years. Spent nuclear fuel pool failure is one thing to consider.
  - tremon 5y ago
    Not directly, no. But the water plants do require electricity to pump/filter/sanitize water to fill their reservoirs. A prolonged outage will cause the clean-water reservoirs to drain empty.
King-Aaron 5y ago
I have wondered about this. From my understanding the reason main power lines etc are affected is that the long cables turn into an antenna of sorts which allows induction to occur from the CMe. So things like small electronics etc shouldn't be affected. However, that's where I wonder about the "shouldn't" part. Wouldn't a large CME like this cause excessive power surges, which modern electronics don't respond well to? i.e. nearby lightning strikes can kill a computer or microwave even if you've got a circuit breaker, so wouldn't the grid suddenly having a massive surge go through it still be a cause for concern? Or are we talking voltage/amp levels below that of a lightning strike?
- o-__-o 5y ago
  You need a better ground and surge protector if nearby lightening strikes are frying your electronics. I would assume an EMP/CME event would also be covered so long as it doesn’t surpass the rating of your protector (assuming whole house suppressor or battery backup, your wimpy surge protector strip probably won’t survive)
macintux 5y ago
Isn’t the big concern around transformers? Every time this topic (or EMPs) comes up, the concern is raised that there are effectively no spare transformers (relative on a global scale) available and that building new ones takes years.
- Arainach 5y ago
  It's certainly a significant problem, and one that would cause some intense short-term pain, AND one that we should just bite the trivial cost and make a spare set somewhere for, but...... It would take years in normal times. In a crisis like this, you'd see resources allocated to transformers on the scale of (perhaps greater than) that allocated to COVID-19 vaccines and PPE, and that time scale would almost certainly be dramatically reduced.
  - macintux 5y ago
    After what Texas experienced, a dramatic reduction hardly seems sufficient.
    - SyzygistSix 5y ago
      >After what Texas experienced What are you referring to?
      - matt_kantor 5y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis

hourislate 5y ago

The 3rd world would be fine, the first world would fall apart. Just a few weeks without power is enough to bring the USA down onto it's knees.

xeromal 5y ago
I think major cities would fall apart but I can speak from experience that the where I grew up in the deep south would fare just fine. Still lots of old world knowledge left to keep local farms and towns running. Of course it would be the stone age but a lot of people live for it there.
- XorNot 5y ago
  Models of major disruptions from other countries don't support this. In general, urban areas do quite well because neighbors and communities look after each other, whereas as isolated communities fall over as soon as they run out of something. Distribution is also easier in the cities due to population density. In general there's a fiction pushed by people who live in lower density areas that somehow they're tougher or more caring or something - that for some reason everyone in cities is just waiting for a moment to suddenly slaughter each other. It doesn't happen.
  - xeromal 5y ago
    Fair enough. I don't have the data to back it up. What countries do you have as examples for me to inform myself with?
    - weagle05 5y ago
      I too would be interested to view these models. Coming from a rural background, people in my hometown still have gardens and hunt/fish. We're one, maybe two, generations removed from people producing most of their own food. I don't see how cities deal when they can't refrigerate food and the supply chain is interrupted.

mc32 5y ago

The more interesting thing to know is whether military sats are shielded enough for these events and who would come out better after one. There’d be advantages for the one with the most remaining capability.

vmception 5y ago

Enough of us have paper wallets and easily regenerable mnemonic phrases. Some people will be able to trade for essentials at arbitrarily large amounts.

kadoban 5y ago
You're saying that in the event of a worldwide, extended loss of power and communications, the currency you'll use will be the one that only exists, in any useful form, on a worldwide communications network, using loads of power? What am I missing?
- vmception 5y ago
  you are missing that: a) an immediate steep drop in difficult will allow the network to resolve transactions without loads of power, and the few nodes online will still comprise the network. some networks have much longer difficulty adjustment periods and they will be debilitated for months as blocks will not come, other networks have much shorter adjustment periods and will generate new blocks in minutes b) that transactions can be signed offline and broadcast eventually, far far in the future. c) alternatively, in a temporarily trusted environment, physical notes with private keys can be handed to someone else in exchange for goods and services. anybody can check the current balance with their own copy of the chain state without the internet, the date/block height of the physical notes balance should be stated alongside the note and anybody with a chain after that block height can verify it. if a provider really wants the latest copy of the chain to accept these notes, order it on a physical disk shipped to you and verify the checksum with multiple sources. d) this means the user can exchange for goods and services without the internet, and the people that are still connected to other nodes such as a radio tower or internet cafe can act as tellers at banks and broadcast transactions periodically for people. better than trading bottlecaps.
  - kadoban 5y ago
    The network would either fragment or die. Depending on how many local/regional networks still exist or are brought up, there would be too many forks to count and then any spends are impossible to really rely on, or just no stable forks at all. You can sign things offline, sure, but you can't really verify them. I could spend the same coins a thousand times if the people accepting them can't reliably check for verifications using the same consistent chain. I don't even understand how the scheme in "c" would work to be honest, and I have a decent background in crypto and cryptocoins. How many people are going to be able to make that work? I just can't see any of that happening. I'd expect a combination of a barter economy, some precious metals and whatever physical currency is around.

bserge 5y ago

Toilet paper hoarding in these scenarios is always funny. Look, you're not going to be flushing precious water down the toilet (if sewage even works), you will be shitting in a hole somewhere outside. In which case any paper, rags or big leaves will do just fine :D

amelius 5y ago
Didn't Apple make it completely obvious that people will do everything for only a tiny bit more convenience? Anyone owning toilet paper in an apocalyptic world will be king!
- f6v 5y ago
  Are you referring to the TV show?