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A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare
- 1cvmask 5y agoIt would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essentials. Other societies might ration resources on a need basis.
- LeoPanthera 5y agoThis is a preppers fantasy, not reality. Engines and generators would not suddenly stop working. Any electronics inside even a lightly shielded building (or even just a grounded metal case) would survive. It would suck for a short time - but only a short time.
- sci_prog 5y agoHow about the effect on all the satellites? I think th Carrington event size one would be catastrophic in the modern day. Imagine large urban areas going losing power for days or weeks. No electricity and no running water. Pretty scary stuff.
- LeoPanthera 5y agoThe loss of satellites does not imply power outages and it especially does not imply no running water. I'm not saying it wouldn't be disruptive, but people seem to have a fetish for disaster. Society is resilient, and life would return to near-normal within weeks, if not days, I predict.
- sci_prog 5y agoI never implied that the loss of satellite = loss of power and water. I'm just saying that even a smaller solar flare (Compared to the Carrington event) cause large disturbances. Look at the 1989 that left Quebec and millions without power for 9 hours. Now imagine an entire country/continent losing power almost simultaneously.
- swader999 5y agoIf the grid goes down nationwide for any length of time it's worse than any event in the last two hundred years. Spent nuclear fuel pool failure is one thing to consider.
- tremon 5y agoNot directly, no. But the water plants do require electricity to pump/filter/sanitize water to fill their reservoirs. A prolonged outage will cause the clean-water reservoirs to drain empty.
- King-Aaron 5y agoI have wondered about this. From my understanding the reason main power lines etc are affected is that the long cables turn into an antenna of sorts which allows induction to occur from the CMe. So things like small electronics etc shouldn't be affected. However, that's where I wonder about the "shouldn't" part. Wouldn't a large CME like this cause excessive power surges, which modern electronics don't respond well to? i.e. nearby lightning strikes can kill a computer or microwave even if you've got a circuit breaker, so wouldn't the grid suddenly having a massive surge go through it still be a cause for concern? Or are we talking voltage/amp levels below that of a lightning strike?
- o-__-o 5y agoYou need a better ground and surge protector if nearby lightening strikes are frying your electronics. I would assume an EMP/CME event would also be covered so long as it doesn’t surpass the rating of your protector (assuming whole house suppressor or battery backup, your wimpy surge protector strip probably won’t survive)
- macintux 5y agoIsn’t the big concern around transformers? Every time this topic (or EMPs) comes up, the concern is raised that there are effectively no spare transformers (relative on a global scale) available and that building new ones takes years.
- Arainach 5y agoIt's certainly a significant problem, and one that would cause some intense short-term pain, AND one that we should just bite the trivial cost and make a spare set somewhere for, but...... It would take years in normal times. In a crisis like this, you'd see resources allocated to transformers on the scale of (perhaps greater than) that allocated to COVID-19 vaccines and PPE, and that time scale would almost certainly be dramatically reduced.
- macintux 5y agoAfter what Texas experienced, a dramatic reduction hardly seems sufficient.
- SyzygistSix 5y ago>After what Texas experienced What are you referring to?
- matt_kantor 5y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis
- hourislate 5y agoThe 3rd world would be fine, the first world would fall apart. Just a few weeks without power is enough to bring the USA down onto it's knees.
- xeromal 5y agoI think major cities would fall apart but I can speak from experience that the where I grew up in the deep south would fare just fine. Still lots of old world knowledge left to keep local farms and towns running. Of course it would be the stone age but a lot of people live for it there.
- XorNot 5y agoModels of major disruptions from other countries don't support this. In general, urban areas do quite well because neighbors and communities look after each other, whereas as isolated communities fall over as soon as they run out of something. Distribution is also easier in the cities due to population density. In general there's a fiction pushed by people who live in lower density areas that somehow they're tougher or more caring or something - that for some reason everyone in cities is just waiting for a moment to suddenly slaughter each other. It doesn't happen.
- xeromal 5y agoFair enough. I don't have the data to back it up. What countries do you have as examples for me to inform myself with?
- weagle05 5y agoI too would be interested to view these models. Coming from a rural background, people in my hometown still have gardens and hunt/fish. We're one, maybe two, generations removed from people producing most of their own food. I don't see how cities deal when they can't refrigerate food and the supply chain is interrupted.
- mc32 5y agoThe more interesting thing to know is whether military sats are shielded enough for these events and who would come out better after one. There’d be advantages for the one with the most remaining capability.
- vmception 5y agoEnough of us have paper wallets and easily regenerable mnemonic phrases. Some people will be able to trade for essentials at arbitrarily large amounts.
- kadoban 5y agoYou're saying that in the event of a worldwide, extended loss of power and communications, the currency you'll use will be the one that only exists, in any useful form, on a worldwide communications network, using loads of power? What am I missing?
- vmception 5y agoyou are missing that: a) an immediate steep drop in difficult will allow the network to resolve transactions without loads of power, and the few nodes online will still comprise the network. some networks have much longer difficulty adjustment periods and they will be debilitated for months as blocks will not come, other networks have much shorter adjustment periods and will generate new blocks in minutes b) that transactions can be signed offline and broadcast eventually, far far in the future. c) alternatively, in a temporarily trusted environment, physical notes with private keys can be handed to someone else in exchange for goods and services. anybody can check the current balance with their own copy of the chain state without the internet, the date/block height of the physical notes balance should be stated alongside the note and anybody with a chain after that block height can verify it. if a provider really wants the latest copy of the chain to accept these notes, order it on a physical disk shipped to you and verify the checksum with multiple sources. d) this means the user can exchange for goods and services without the internet, and the people that are still connected to other nodes such as a radio tower or internet cafe can act as tellers at banks and broadcast transactions periodically for people. better than trading bottlecaps.
- kadoban 5y agoThe network would either fragment or die. Depending on how many local/regional networks still exist or are brought up, there would be too many forks to count and then any spends are impossible to really rely on, or just no stable forks at all. You can sign things offline, sure, but you can't really verify them. I could spend the same coins a thousand times if the people accepting them can't reliably check for verifications using the same consistent chain. I don't even understand how the scheme in "c" would work to be honest, and I have a decent background in crypto and cryptocoins. How many people are going to be able to make that work? I just can't see any of that happening. I'd expect a combination of a barter economy, some precious metals and whatever physical currency is around.
- bserge 5y agoToilet paper hoarding in these scenarios is always funny. Look, you're not going to be flushing precious water down the toilet (if sewage even works), you will be shitting in a hole somewhere outside. In which case any paper, rags or big leaves will do just fine :D
- slickrick216 5y agoGiven all the ICS security threats of late I wonder has any government gamed out how to take advantage of an impending CME. For example preventing a shutdown of critical CME vulnerable equipment to cause maximum damage. Given the CME is the thing doing the damage it would be a hard one politically to push back on if tracks were covered by the actor.
- blacksmith_tb 5y agoI am not an astrophysicist, but I don't see any reason to doubt the study's conclusions. But isn't the more pressing question the probability of such a CME hitting the Earth? The sun is not small, and CMEs could be ejected away from it in any direction, I would think relatively few of them hit any of the planets?
- sci_prog 5y agoKurzgesagt has a nice and objective summary on the topic. If I remember correctly, 50% chance of a big one hitting us over the next 50 years (or by 2050, can't remember exactly): https://youtu.be/oHHSSJDJ4oo https://youtu.be/oHHSSJDJ4oo
- medstrom 5y agoIf it happens at night, you'll get a great lightshow to start off the apocalypse. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_event >Auroras were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. were so bright that the glow woke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[8] People in the northeastern United States could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[15] The aurora was visible from the poles to low latitude areas such as south-central Mexico,[16][17] Queensland, Cuba, Hawaii,[18] southern Japan and China,[19] and even at lower latitudes very close to the equator, such as in Colombia.
- bananabreakfast 5y agoCMEs are not actually emitted uniformly over the whole spherical surface of the sun. Instead it's much closer to a Gaussian distribution centered on the ecliptic.
- medstrom 5y agoFor anyone not in the know, the ecliptic is the plane of the Earth's and most planets' orbit.
- sci_prog 5y agoI wonder if there's a Paleo-proxy or some kind of natural record that could be used to trace the frequency and magnitude of these events throughout Earth's geological past and if anyone is looking into it? For example we can look at the ocean sediments (usually by measuring changes in isotopic ratio of different compounds) and infer a great deal on temperature, carbon cycling, polar reversal, ocean circulation, chemistry etc. going back millions of years. It would be really neat and helpful if we discovered a proxy that we could use to trace solar flares hitting earth.
- blamestross 5y agoThe moon might be better for that.
- lgats 5y agoSolar geology: deducing the Sun's pre-telescope history https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/52/2/2.13/206404 https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/52/2/2.13/206404 Evidence of a Monstrous, Ancient Solar Storm Found Hidden in Greenland's Ice https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a26817934/solar-storm-greenland/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a268179... BC 660 beryllium-10 / chlorine-36 spike https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a26817934/solar-storm-greenland/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a268179... AD 774–775 carbon-14 spike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774%E2%80%93775_carbon-14_spike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774%E2%80%93775_carbon-14_spik... AD 993-994 carbon-14 spike https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms2783 https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms2783 See Also: Atmospheric Production of Carbon-14 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14#Natural_production_in_the_atmosphere https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14#Natural_production_i...
- sci_prog 5y agoThank you for these!
- briantakita 5y agoThe current weakening of Earth's Geomagnetic field (Geomagnetic Excursion) would leave Earth relatively unprotected from a CME as well. Weakened Geomagnetic Fields seem to be correlated to mass extinction/evolution events. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018RG000629 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X14001629 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X1... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1342937X16000319 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13429...
- xeromal 5y agoThose links gave me the heeby-jeebies.
- graderjs 5y agoThat's a cool plain-language summary: The strength of Earth's magnetic field in the past, recorded by rocks and sediments, provides a proxy for past flux of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) to Earth's surface due to the role of the field in modulating stratigraphic ozone. About 40,000 years ago, mammalian fossils in Australia and Eurasia record an important die‐off of large mammals that included Neanderthals in Europe. In the Americas and Europe, a large mammalian die‐off appears to have occurred ~13,000 years ago. Both die‐offs can be linked to minima in Earth's magnetic field strength implying that UVR flux variations to Earth's surface influenced mammalian evolution. For the last ~200,000 years, estimates of the timing of branching episodes in the human evolutionary tree, from modern and fossil DNA and Y chromosomes, can be linked to minima in field strength, which implies a long‐term role for UVR in human evolution. New fossil finds, improved fossil dating, knowledge of the past strength of Earth's magnetic field, and refinements in the human evolutionary tree, are sharpening the focus on a possible link between UVR arriving at the Earth's surface, magnetic field strength, and events in mammalian evolution.
- ggm 5y agoStarlink? I'd rather have fibre on the ground for a lot of reasons, but if enough people moved to LEO orbit sats, and then huge numbers of them get affected by reduced magnetosphere protection, the compounding problems here are huge.
- neatze 5y agoWill my desktop and laptop survive such perfect CME ?
- Rebelgecko 5y agoAs long as you have a surge protector you'd probably be fine. Most of the damage on earth would be to the power grid itself, especially really long cables
- alexfromapex 5y agoThis is why I haven’t bought doge coin
- ronsor 5y agoI understand that cryptocurrencies are tied to technology and the sketchy nature of the DOGE hype, but how is this potential event the main reason you haven't bought DOGE?
- agreeableone 5y agoThe timing of the Carrington Event was strangely fortuitous - only when a few telegraph lines had been installed. So the cost of the adverse event was relatively minor. Good thing the aliens controlling our simulation tested us early.
- taneq 5y agoEarly enough that only a few telegraph lines were affected, but late enough that there were some and we noticed that it was more than some unusually bright auroras.
- consumer451 5y agoDoes anyone have an idea of what a CME direct hit would do to a residential solar/battery system? Would the outcomes for grid-connected and off-grid systems be different?
- anonuser123456 5y agoThere is a 12 hour lead time to prepare. If disconnected from the grid it would be fine.
- throwawaysea 5y agoDepending solely on electricity is a bad idea. In a past weather event that lead to a power loss for nearly two weeks, everyone I knew was thankful to have piped natural gas. I am not sure I trust electric cars and fully electric homes to be sufficiently redundant.
- orthoxerox 5y agoI wonder if the gas pipeline with all its pumping stations is completely self-powered or it is dependent on the power grid.
- brodouevencode 5y agoFor residential, a propane powered generator would be helpful.
- SyzygistSix 5y agoOn the other hand, car batteries full of energy would be useful while the grid was being brought back on line.
- ourmandave 5y agoWould I finally get to see the northern lights from the equator?
- alkonaut 5y agoYes but you’d just call them “the lights”…
- PicassoCTs 5y agoHow about creating a mass-ejection-storm-powered sunwards satellite, that creates a magnetic field and allows earth to orbit in its "calmer" cone-wake? It would be basically just "dead" components + coolant at point of event, held in place till then by a steering module. I don't subscribe to the incident statistics on this anymore. We had similar incident statistics pre-chernobyl, pre-fukushima and they are not mereley useless, they are actually harmful and dangerous. They prevent discussion, calm down politicans and public, fuel a short-sighted prevent-cost-at-allcost-preventionism that sabotages any disaster awareness and preparedness.
- pasabagi 5y agoI think there is a context to Chernobyl or Fukushima - they were industrial accidents, and there is a very long history of industrial accidents, many of which were far more deadly. Obviously, in both the USSR and Japan, there were/are problems with regulatory capture, and in the USSR, safety culture. I think people overfocus on the dramatic explosion and underfocus on the legion of maimed, poisoned, and permanently disabled people that suffer from industrial accidents every day. It's both unjust and ineffective - you can't make a dangerous industrial process safe in a society where civil servants see their job as to promote the interests of big industrial concerns, and that's at the root of both Fukishima and Minamata disease.
- zupa-hu 5y agoI don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right? When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us. Can somebody clarify?
- f6v 5y agoI guess anyone on life support would die swiftly.
- kevingadd 5y agoAlso anyone reliant on perishable medicines or regular treatments that would be threatened by utility outages - some medicines need to be refrigerated, for example, so after a week or so without power all of that stuff is probably a goner.
- f6v 5y agoYeah, like an insulin. I wonder what happens if someone’s glucose sensor implant(don’t know what’s it called) gets burned like that.
- codeulike 5y agoI think the often cited problem is that if a national electricity grid goes down, its a very long and complex job to get them back up again, especially if transformers are damaged.
- cesarb 5y agoIf there's no damage, it doesn't take that long. We had a blackout in 2009 in which the national grid of two countries (Itaipu is shared between Brazil and Paraguay) went down; I'm looking at the official report right now, and it took less than half a day to restore nearly all of the system for this country. Of course, if there's damage beyond the redundancies, it can take much longer; see for instance the recent blackout in the Amapá state, in which two transformers at a key substation were damaged by fire (and the third was under maintenance).
- podgaj 5y agoKnowing the high probability of this, I’m curious how everyone will change their day today.
- f6v 5y agoThe European Commission will first deny that any measures are necessary. Then when it’s too late they’ll keep saying they’re “on schedule”.
- paul_f 5y agoJust here to point out this idea (no spoilers) is a major plot point in the Oppenheimer Alternative, the newest book by famed science fiction author Robert Sawyer. A good read.
- rdedev 5y agoThere are already a few measures that can be taken to prevent extensive safe to the grid from an CME https://youtu.be/LLO9WxVO9s8 https://youtu.be/LLO9WxVO9s8
- ArcFeind 5y agoThis kills all the satellites in our orbit as well? Satellites are already vulnerable to solar events and magnetic anomalies like SAA. In additional to everything on Earth being wiped out would this would create a mini Kessler Syndrome since all satellites are now space junk which we will never be able to communicate with again?
- amelius 5y agoWe can move all satellites to the dark side of Earth.
- whatshisface 5y agoWe can move a little less than half of all satellites to the dark side of earth.
- ragebol 5y agoIf we would just 'move' our natural satellite to the bright side of earth, we could shield a part of earth. What are the odds of having a (total) solar eclipse during a CME coming straight to earth? astronomically small for sure.
- shillforhumanty 5y agoThreads like these are a great reminder how out of touch city dwellers(HN) are to reality. Utopia version of humanity kicks in once the power goes out. lmao
- mensetmanusman 5y agoThis reminds me of the warnings about a coronavirus pandemic from over 10 years ago. We know from geological records that these are periodic events that happened every so often. We are due for one, and it is in our best interest to take the periodicity of nature seriously.
- brodouevencode 5y agoExactly. We got pretty lucky (all things considered) with this particular strain. It could have been much, much worse.
- anonymouse008 5y agoI’m continually shocked at how little people appreciate just how lucky we were with this recent pandemic.
- agency 5y agoYeah can you imagine if it affected young people in the way Spanish flu did? I honestly think we’d be lucky if our civilization didn’t collapse in the face of something like that, given how this version went down.
- szatkus 5y agoI'm not a virusologist, but I read that Spansh flu would be beaten pretty quickly with modern knowledge and procedures. COVID's advantage is that it's not that lethal and often asymptomatic.
- gremlinsinc 5y agoNah, why don't we just keep rolling the dice? What's the worst that could happen? /s
- xvilka 5y agoIt can be avoided if we will start to protect our electronics and networks right now. At least most critical ones. The protection technology is available already, just need to be integrated everywhere.
- postalrat 5y agoHurry up and replace all our satellites!
- rthomas6 5y agoThis makes me think about Taleb's fragile vs robust vs antifragile systems with relation to the power grid. Is a nation-sized power grid even a good idea anymore? If most places were powered by a local cooperative solar + wind + storage system, it would be less efficient, but wouldn't it also be a lot more robust against a CME, and also everything else? Individual systems would go down all the time, but overall the system as a whole would never be able to be taken down by pretty much anything.
- tchock23 5y agoIs there anything that a citizen can do today to advocate for preparing for an event like this?