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Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to ev

• zitterbewegung 5y ago
  The issue is that supply is greatly exceeding demand. It also isn't constrained to Vehicles. Apple's Q2 guidance has said that iPads and Macs supplies have been constrained. [1]. Also, if you get reposessed cars that doesn't mean you will be able to resell them. Sure the automakers made a mistake in their orders for chips but since everyone is now trying to get foundries making chips and we are still having logistic problems with Air and Ocean freight no one really knows the answer to your question. [2] [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-29/apple-finally-feels-the-global-semiconductor-shortage?sref=wLyKPDtZ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-29/apple-fin... [2] https://unctad.org/news/shipping-during-covid-19-why-container-freight-rates-have-surged https://unctad.org/news/shipping-during-covid-19-why-contain...
• ineedasername 5y ago
  Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my current car starts having enough problems to make the upgrade worth it.
  • wizzwizz4 5y ago
    If you don't want a monthly car payment, start your “monthly car payment” into a savings account now. You'll end up paying less for your next car if you can maximise the up-front payment.
    • dwighttk 5y ago
      If you don’t want a monthly car payment pay a monthly car payment so later you can have a smaller monthly car payment?
      • jimbob45 5y ago
        I think the idea is that you accrue the interest yourself instead of paying it to someone else.
        • ironmagma 5y ago
          The amount of interest accrued in a savings account is pretty wimpy though.
        • unclebucknasty 5y ago
          Yeah, but a savings account? Interest rates for savings are abysmal, and auto-loans are themselves frequently near (or at) zero these days, so it's losing advice as-given. Better advice: put the money in the market or other higher-yielding investment, then take a low or no interest loan on the vehicle when the time comes so those investments can continue to grow at the much higher clip. Money's just too cheap to give away your own cash. Obviously, if the interest rate environment changes, this should be re-evaluated.
          • Larrikin 5y ago
            What percentage are you talking about as being abysmal. 0.1% offered at some shitty brick and mortar bank is terrible but nearly all the online first banks offer (or offered before covid) what I thought was a decent 1-3%
• itsoktocry 5y ago
  What do you consider "meaningful new features"? What about new cars "sucks"? They are more reliable, safer, quieter, more powerful, more fuel efficient and more full featured than ever.
  • bredren 5y ago
    We are in the iPod Video stage of individual car ownership.
    • Hamuko 5y ago
      Are you saying that the next step will be the best version of individual car ownership?
      • bredren 5y ago
        I sure hope so. I think car culture is bad art. But to defend the analogy, iPod Video was iPod gen 5. Apple did two more generations on that format with the minimum additional feature set. That might take a while. And there will be many a Zune sold in the meantime.
        • tricolon 5y ago
          Can you elaborate a bit? I am quite familiar with the various iPods but quite unfamiliar with cars.
          • bredren 5y ago
            There are a lot of car enthusiasts here who can explain what makes new cars cool. You'll have to make your own comparison to iPod features from 2005.
    • mywittyname 5y ago
      I disagree. Whether your into sports cars or fuel efficient cars, both categories have meaningfully improved over the past few years. For sports cars, there's a number of 500,600,700hp cars on the market. Corvettes went mid engine (2020), Miatas lost 400lbs of weight(2016), Mustangs/Camaros/Chargers are now 460+HP (2018ish), a VW Golf R will hit 60MPH in 4 seconds with a 2.0L motor, and that's not even getting into Teslas. For economy cars, a Rav4 hybrid gets about as good of fuel economy as a 2014 Prius, while being substantially larger. There are good hybrid offerings from non-Toyota brands, such as KIA. Plug in hybrids are pretty widely available. Even non-hybrids such as the Civic improved substantially in fuel economy in the past few years. In 2016, Civic fuel economy improved about 8% across the lineup. For many auto makers, the transition from early 2010s to late 2010s came with substantial improvements. Not just in measureable metrics either. Transmission performance has improved so much between 2010 and 2020. It's really insane to experience a 2010 6 speed automatic, then compare it to a car with a modern 8,9,10 speed. The difference is night and day for most cars.
• vxNsr 5y ago
  > Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? > Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. There are gonna be far fewer evictions and/or mortgage defaults than people think, all those ppl who have been out of work are likely making more money right now than they were at the start of the pandemic just from unemployment, additionally bec they’re unemployed they may qualify for their states’ Medicaid benefits and food stamps, not to mention the free school lunches than many states have turned into a basically tons of raw produce and other various meal-making materials delivered/picked up each week. All those extra benefits mean the raw unemployment dollars go farther compared to a normal income creating an effectively higher $/hr wage than if you just look at the $300-600/wk(+state unemployment). All this distills down to the fact that everyone has been flush with cash the entire time so much so that I know a few people in March 2020 who were behind on rent but due to all the aforementioned benefits were able to pay the rent they owed. Meaning that people having been making rent and/or mortgage for the most part and have probably been living beyond their (normal) means for the last year. If there’s gonna be any sort of correction it’s not coming until mid-2022 at the earliest.
  • syshum 5y ago
    It is going to come sooner than that, people keep talking about inflation "coming soon" I think those people are blind because it is already here. Right now if we just get off with a little stagflation that would be a blessing, unfortunately I think it is going to far far worse. All those people depending on government checks are going to get hit hardest by the combination of inflation and the required austerity measures
    • imtringued 5y ago
      The economy is projected to grow quickly in 2021 though and even 2022 is projected to grow 3.5% which is still higher than trump's 2.5% average. The debt burden may shrink from sheer growth alone.
• TigeriusKirk 5y ago
  That's an interesting theory. Anecdotally, I occasionally pass by a lot where repossessed cars are stored. I've noticed there have considerably fewer cars in their lots of late, with whole sections completely empty. I'd guessed bad car loans just weren't being made with the pandemic, but this theory makes a lot more sense.
  • bredren 5y ago
    I like that you have this small visual indicator of vehicle repossession rates. If someone took sat photos and performed vehicle count on lots like this across the country that would be a quite an interesting set of data frames. If might not matter if a person pays the rent, but people are definitely on the hook with both their lenders and their auto insurance providers. It has also never been easier to recognize a vehicle marked for repo than it is today. Vigilant's (Motarola) DRN and MVTrac are mature, growing while the cost of new LPR equipment continues to go down. When it comes to the repo man, It's never been a worse time to be in violation of a car loan or lease.
• bluedino 5y ago
  >> Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Americans will pay their car loan before their rent.
  • Nasrudith 5y ago
    You can sleep in your car but you can't drive your house or apartment.
    • Robotbeat 5y ago
      I think about this fact a lot considering the growing anti-car movement on certain parts of Twitter. Huge misconception about the value of cars, especially for people in America who don't live in extremely dense cities. Something which doesn't need much maintenance, like a Honda or Toyota or something, is a lifeline. Fuel is still relatively cheap; modern cars are twice as efficient as similar cars from ~40-50 years ago. Housing has skyrocketed in that time compared to income. But a car is often a pre-requisite for many jobs. And with Uber/Lyft/door-dash, etc, a car can enable you to almost immediately get a modest job in most cities in the country. And it's easy to move to a new city if you have a car, as it functions as your own private room (even if you have to crash on a couch... or sleep in a Walmart parking lot). They also mean you don't need to rely on local 7/11 or delivery services for food. You can go buy in bulk, shop across town. A car gives you optionality and security. Wise or not, we've built our nation around cars, and now cheap used cars with affordable fuel are basically our main safety net.
  • pWFk41mFfie1NOd 5y ago
    Because of the eviction moratorium there are many who just stopped paying rent. And some of those people bought cars they are only able to afford because they aren't paying rent. Even with prioritizing car payments there will be many who fall behind on those if they start paying rent at new places.
• justapassenger 5y ago
  > Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features. In terms of bells and whistles? Yeah, not that much. But in terms of safety tech, there has been a huge progress in last 10 years and it’s not slowing down. New cars are not only getting harder to crash, but in case of crash they’re getting better and better at protecting you. Safety is main reason why I update my cars every few years, even tho it’s pretty costly. But so is having my family seriously injured or killed.
  • dehrmann 5y ago
    > Safety is main reason why I update my cars every few years It's probably only only worth it after a redesign (every 6 years, or so), and I'd wait for the second model year in the new generation for them to work out the kinks. That said, the EV of added safety, especially coming from a car generation build before the small overlap frontal crash test was added in 2012, is pretty good.
  • kens 5y ago
    A couple of days ago I was watching a dramatic video showing test collisions of old cars vs modern cars. I was surprised by how much safer a 2016 car was than a 1992 car. Not to mention the 1959 death trap Bel Air. (It's alarming though that 1992 is now the olden days.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TikJC0x65X0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TikJC0x65X0
    • tomschlick 5y ago
      Yeah I remember talking to my grandfather a few years ago and he made a comment about cars being so fragile now. One accident and they crumple costing thousands to fix when "back in the day" it would just be a bent bumper. I explained that in the old days the car was built sturdier and survived but the people had worse odds, now the car is sacrificed to take the brunt of the force. That finally clicked for him as he remembered quite a few friends being in life threatening crashes back then but barely any today.
      • Chris2048 5y ago
• gumby 5y ago
  It’s hard to predict, even if only a couple of months ahead. As the economy picks up a lot of people who had rent relief may have some sort of income, perhaps enough to push them positively over the line. Not all of the renters on relief, obviously, but perhaps enough to chop the number of actual car repossessions significantly. Separately, I suspect that quite a few of the ppl who had rent relief had cars that, let’s just say, wouldn’t be highly sought in he used vehicle market.
  • bredren 5y ago
    > Separately, I suspect that quite a few of the ppl who had rent relief had cars that, let’s just say, wouldn’t be highly sought in he used vehicle market. Perhaps. Vehicles have been pushed in every medium as status symbols. Creative financing options and cheaper insurance have allowed those affected by this to continue to participate. It isn’t just new cars but expensive restoration and customization of old ones. I think this is beginning to fall away, in part because young people do not rely on physical presence to gain and maintain social standing among their peers as much as they used to. So a better phone camera matters more than nicer rims. Selfies in front of a fancy car get less likes than swimming next to a sea tortoise. That said I think groups that have been economically disadvantaged over long periods of time process and integrate culture shifts like this more slowly.
• aerophilic 5y ago
  A somewhat not intuitive fact: Most renters prioritize their car payments over other debts/rent. Without a car they have no income…
  • pjmorris 5y ago
    And you can sleep in a car, if need be.
    • SilasX 5y ago
      "You can sleep in your car, but you can't drive your house."
      • KirillPanov 5y ago
        Speak for yourself, buddy. You haven't seen my house.
  • azernik 5y ago
    And in many states, your car is one of the things that cannot be repossessed in case of bankruptcy.
• vmception 5y ago
  Looking forward to major US regions becoming market-based economies again.
• deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]