3 ms·

Why would it be necessary to send a message that it was you who poisoned your most public critic? It seems unlikely that anyone would point the finger anywhere

Why would it be necessary to send a message that it was you who poisoned your most public critic? It seems unlikely that anyone would point the finger anywhere other than the FSB. While I personally do believe the Russian government is responsible, the timing of the poisoning, being so close to the completion of the Nord Stream II pipeline to Germany, and the connections between Bellingcat and western intelligence[1], should give one pause when looking into this specific case. [1]: https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/20/reuters-bbc-uk-foreign-office-russian-media/ https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/20/reuters-bbc-uk-foreign-of...

ed25519FUUU 5y ago
Seems like a really easy way for other countries to hide attribution for their attacks by using something that everything will believe is just Russia "sending a message."
- trefoiled 5y ago
  This is more or less my assessment. It's important to keep in mind that global geopolitics is a subtle game, especially when intelligence operations are concerned; sometimes things are exactly how they appear, but often they're very different from how they are initially reported. It often takes decades to find out what really happened. I don't think there's enough solid information to draw any conclusions about this specific situation, but I do think if Putin intended to get rid of Navalny permanently, he couldn't have picked a worse time to involve Germany in a high profile poisoning case when a pipeline (to Germany) crucial to the Russian economy was due to be opened.
  - takeda 5y ago
    Well... did it affect anything with the pipeline?
  - trefoiled 5y ago
    >Well... did it affect anything with the pipeline? Yes. The US has been threatening sanctions on Russian businesses to stop the pipeline since 2019. The US finally issued the sanctions on ships involved in the construction, using the poisoning explicitly as a justification.[1] A great deal of pressure was placed on Germany by the US to cancel it completely due to the poisoning, despite the several billion euros of investment already made by the country. The German government did not give in to the pressure.[2] [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/1/19/russias-gazprom-says-nord-stream-2-at-risk-after-us-sanctions https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/1/19/russias-gazprom-... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-laschet-exclusive/exclusive-navalny-affair-no-grounds-to-cancel-nord-stream-pipeline-new-german-cdu-chief-says-idUSKBN2A51FL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-laschet-... Edit: The US did not explicitly sanction entities involved in the construction of the pipeline because of Navalny, I got that mixed up with a European parliament push to do so. [3] [3] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20210119IPR95904/parliament-demands-significantly-tighter-eu-sanctions-against-russia https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20210119IP...
- rdtsc 5y ago
  That's a good point. It opens up a possibility for Russia's opponents to use any of these substances to assassinate someone with everyone believing it was the Russians. The Russians would deny it but nobody would believe them. Then obviously if that plan would leak, there is a risk of the previous attempts to now be pinned on this other party.
hardlianotion 5y ago
I don’t find thegrayzone convincing at all.
- trefoiled 5y ago
  Do you think the leaked documents themselves are suspect, despite the UK Foreign Office itself confirming the hack[1]? [1] https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-uk-government-probing-cyber-attack-over-syria-propaganda-leaks https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-uk-government-p...
  - hardlianotion 5y ago
    Nope.
tw04 5y ago
> Why would it be necessary to send a message that it was you who poisoned your most public critic? Because it acts as a deterrent to others interested in following in their footsteps. “I can kill you at any time with no repercussions and I’ll deny it with a smile on my face because I can.” Putin is busy trying to imprison anyone associated with or protesting for the release of Navalny. That is as telling as anything. It wasn’t the west.
saiya-jin 5y ago
I see a lot of analysis from western viewpoint (which is to be expected on dominantly US web), which is really out of touch with the viewpoint of those in power in current Russia. Its natural for humans to try to understand the world and actions of others as if they were done by oneself, but its an incorrect approach. American can hardly fully comprehend Russian mentality (or ie Chinese and complex decision-making processes). This is the soviet way and business-as-usual, and they are still ruled by people who got these ways drilled in the brain in the height of the cold war while working for KGB. What else can you expect from such people. Bear in mind, very, very smart people, mostly highly functioning sociopaths like in many other top positions. They don't care much about western condemnation or sanctions, those don't touch those who hold power (even specifically targeted ones). In contrary - it helps foster the us-vs-they mentality in state controlled media. There is a lot of macho behavior, and even president has to/wants to show some of it since its expected. People tend to think how much has world moved since end of cold war. Well for Russia and its powergames, very little. Try to look at these things from perspective of cold war optics, and events like Ukraine, Georgia, poisonings etc. do look as usual tug of war of the past.
- trefoiled 5y ago
  I agree with this, and do believe the Russian government is responsible for the poisoning. However, I think the tendency to swallow what the US media/intelligence apparatus offers up as truth unquestioningly is an equally harmful and myopic perspective. The actions of the US State Dept with regard to Russia over the past 5 months should increase skepticism of anti-Russian narratives (and the same goes for anti-Chinese narratives). Even if those narratives are true, it's worth taking a moment to consider what the aim of each of the parties involved is.
pydry 5y ago
I've seen a couple of other explanations that I find slightly more convincing: ** They weren't trying to send a message and were relying upon the natural tendency of novichok poisoning to look like natural heart failure. Allegedly there were some other offed Russian oligarchs in London that were chalked up to that that were quietly revisited by the UK. ** It was a group within the GRU acting independently, as evidenced by: * Russia almost begging the UK to be clued into the investigation at the beginning. * The history of Soviet agencies acting independently. * The chaos in 1991 leading to lots of "disappeared" military equipment (I'm almost certain some novichok got "lost"). * The fact that Skripal was probably deeply hated within the GRU who would be more revenge oriented (in which case assassination makes sense) while Putin would be more focused on geopolitical advantage (in which case it doesn't). I can well imagine the fury the GRU had at seeing Putin allowing him to retire to a nice cottage after his treachery. The timing of the assassination just before Putin's election almost looks like it might be about sending him a message.
7sigma 5y ago
The two culprits were GRU officers according to this investigation https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/10/09/full-report-skripal-poisoning-suspect-dr-alexander-mishkin-hero-russia/ https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/10/09/ful...

ed25519FUUU 5y ago

Seems like a really easy way for other countries to hide attribution for their attacks by using something that everything will believe is just Russia "sending a message."

trefoiled 5y ago
This is more or less my assessment. It's important to keep in mind that global geopolitics is a subtle game, especially when intelligence operations are concerned; sometimes things are exactly how they appear, but often they're very different from how they are initially reported. It often takes decades to find out what really happened. I don't think there's enough solid information to draw any conclusions about this specific situation, but I do think if Putin intended to get rid of Navalny permanently, he couldn't have picked a worse time to involve Germany in a high profile poisoning case when a pipeline (to Germany) crucial to the Russian economy was due to be opened.
- takeda 5y ago
  Well... did it affect anything with the pipeline?
- trefoiled 5y ago
  >Well... did it affect anything with the pipeline? Yes. The US has been threatening sanctions on Russian businesses to stop the pipeline since 2019. The US finally issued the sanctions on ships involved in the construction, using the poisoning explicitly as a justification.[1] A great deal of pressure was placed on Germany by the US to cancel it completely due to the poisoning, despite the several billion euros of investment already made by the country. The German government did not give in to the pressure.[2] [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/1/19/russias-gazprom-says-nord-stream-2-at-risk-after-us-sanctions https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/1/19/russias-gazprom-... [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-laschet-exclusive/exclusive-navalny-affair-no-grounds-to-cancel-nord-stream-pipeline-new-german-cdu-chief-says-idUSKBN2A51FL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-laschet-... Edit: The US did not explicitly sanction entities involved in the construction of the pipeline because of Navalny, I got that mixed up with a European parliament push to do so. [3] [3] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20210119IPR95904/parliament-demands-significantly-tighter-eu-sanctions-against-russia https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20210119IP...
rdtsc 5y ago
That's a good point. It opens up a possibility for Russia's opponents to use any of these substances to assassinate someone with everyone believing it was the Russians. The Russians would deny it but nobody would believe them. Then obviously if that plan would leak, there is a risk of the previous attempts to now be pinned on this other party.

hardlianotion 5y ago

I don’t find thegrayzone convincing at all.

trefoiled 5y ago
Do you think the leaked documents themselves are suspect, despite the UK Foreign Office itself confirming the hack[1]? [1] https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-uk-government-probing-cyber-attack-over-syria-propaganda-leaks https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-uk-government-p...
- hardlianotion 5y ago
  Nope.

tw04 5y ago

> Why would it be necessary to send a message that it was you who poisoned your most public critic? Because it acts as a deterrent to others interested in following in their footsteps. “I can kill you at any time with no repercussions and I’ll deny it with a smile on my face because I can.” Putin is busy trying to imprison anyone associated with or protesting for the release of Navalny. That is as telling as anything. It wasn’t the west.

saiya-jin 5y ago

I see a lot of analysis from western viewpoint (which is to be expected on dominantly US web), which is really out of touch with the viewpoint of those in power in current Russia. Its natural for humans to try to understand the world and actions of others as if they were done by oneself, but its an incorrect approach. American can hardly fully comprehend Russian mentality (or ie Chinese and complex decision-making processes). This is the soviet way and business-as-usual, and they are still ruled by people who got these ways drilled in the brain in the height of the cold war while working for KGB. What else can you expect from such people. Bear in mind, very, very smart people, mostly highly functioning sociopaths like in many other top positions. They don't care much about western condemnation or sanctions, those don't touch those who hold power (even specifically targeted ones). In contrary - it helps foster the us-vs-they mentality in state controlled media. There is a lot of macho behavior, and even president has to/wants to show some of it since its expected. People tend to think how much has world moved since end of cold war. Well for Russia and its powergames, very little. Try to look at these things from perspective of cold war optics, and events like Ukraine, Georgia, poisonings etc. do look as usual tug of war of the past.

trefoiled 5y ago
I agree with this, and do believe the Russian government is responsible for the poisoning. However, I think the tendency to swallow what the US media/intelligence apparatus offers up as truth unquestioningly is an equally harmful and myopic perspective. The actions of the US State Dept with regard to Russia over the past 5 months should increase skepticism of anti-Russian narratives (and the same goes for anti-Chinese narratives). Even if those narratives are true, it's worth taking a moment to consider what the aim of each of the parties involved is.

pydry 5y ago

I've seen a couple of other explanations that I find slightly more convincing: ** They weren't trying to send a message and were relying upon the natural tendency of novichok poisoning to look like natural heart failure. Allegedly there were some other offed Russian oligarchs in London that were chalked up to that that were quietly revisited by the UK. ** It was a group within the GRU acting independently, as evidenced by: * Russia almost begging the UK to be clued into the investigation at the beginning. * The history of Soviet agencies acting independently. * The chaos in 1991 leading to lots of "disappeared" military equipment (I'm almost certain some novichok got "lost"). * The fact that Skripal was probably deeply hated within the GRU who would be more revenge oriented (in which case assassination makes sense) while Putin would be more focused on geopolitical advantage (in which case it doesn't). I can well imagine the fury the GRU had at seeing Putin allowing him to retire to a nice cottage after his treachery. The timing of the assassination just before Putin's election almost looks like it might be about sending him a message.

7sigma 5y ago

The two culprits were GRU officers according to this investigation https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/10/09/full-report-skripal-poisoning-suspect-dr-alexander-mishkin-hero-russia/ https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/10/09/ful...