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Tesla Continues to Walk Back Full Self-Driving Claims

108 points by Alupis 6y ago

a1371 6y ago
So they are filing a document with SEC, it has a"Risks" section. They mention as a risk that the full self-driving might never work. I'm surprised if they had never mentioned that risk before, but the article seems to suggest that.
BooneJS 6y ago
So what did I pay $10k for?
- Hamuko 6y ago
  Full* Self*-Driving (terms and conditions apply)
- pudmaidai 6y ago
  Dogecoin, indirectly, without interest
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  This is a great question to ask via arbitration or a class action (if you opted out of arbitration when you bought the vehicle). I also expect a securities fraud suit, as Tesla has been recognizing revenue in self selected milestones for FSD. Disclosure: Tesla S/X owner (EAP, no FSD), party to the class action regarding S/X premature suspension failures.
  - Isinlor 6y ago
    Any sources on Tesla cashing in on revenue from FSD? Edit. I've found it: https://seekingalpha.com/filing/5494291 https://seekingalpha.com/filing/5494291 > Deferred revenue activity related to the access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Full Self Driving (“FSD”) features and over-the-air software updates on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantee amounted to $2.00 billion and $1.93 billion as of March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, respectively. > Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of the balance sheet date. Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2020 and 2019 was $79 million and $57 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Of the total deferred revenue on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantees as of March 31, 2021, we expect to recognize $1.21 billion of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized over the performance period which is generally the expected ownership life of the vehicle or the eight-year life of the vehicle. Oh well. The lawsuits will be interesting to watch. I'm sorry for the people who have been fooled into purchasing FSD. IMO they have less than 50% chance that they will actually get a car that drives itself without babysitting before 2025.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - zitterbewegung 6y ago
    Also, false advertising.
- lscotte 6y ago
  Cult membership dues.
  - MomoXenosaga 6y ago
    Harsh but I have to say is there a car company with the kind of hype and fanboyism of Tesla? I understand 5 years ago when Tesla was doing things nobody else was doing but electric cars are mainstream now. If I had the money I'd be buying a Volvo Polestar.
    - Kye 6y ago
      Saturn had a similar fan club, but I don't think it was as vocal.
    - Hamuko 6y ago
      >Harsh but I have to say is there a car company with the kind of hype and fanboyism of Tesla? You need to drink the Kool-aid pretty hard in order to buy hypercars like the LaFerrari but there's not really anything on the scale of Tesla.
    - greedo 6y ago
      Jeep. I know so many people who love their Jeeps despite them largely being garbage. To me, Jeep is like Harley Davidson; they look great until they start to fall apart.
      - ghaff 6y ago
        Jeeps (of Wrangler/Rubicon variety) are good for a particular use case--high clearance 4WD. No, they don't last a long time doing that.
    - tempest_ 6y ago
      Yes, almost all of them. The pickup truck people are very brand loyal and don't forget the buy American crowd. You just see a lot of Tesla stuff because there is a cross section of tech people who like Tesla because it is marketed like a phone instead of a car.
- ctdonath 6y ago
  Like many technologies, FSD is a long hard road of complex technological development; alas, customers think it should work perfectly out of the box right now to meet lofty flippant expectations. Your $10k got you the hardware needed to self-drive to some degree, with improvements trickling in indefinitely. Can it drive you from here to there with very little (and decreasing) intervention? What did you actually expect (serious question)?
  - kingsuper20 6y ago
    >Your $10k got you the hardware needed to self-drive to some degree Don't all new Teslas come with the hardware and the self-driving is a software upgrade? My impression was that the purchase basically locked in a price. I could be wrong on this. I'll be all-in on self-driving when I can use it to go to the bar and come home, until then it's mostly just an interesting technological exercise.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      At this point, I'm probably more interested in improving highway assistive systems. But, yes, there are many use cases that go by the wayside if you don't have reliable door-to-door driving without human input. There are questions about both whether the current sensor package is sufficient and even bigger questions about whether an upgrade to FSD happens in the life of the vehicle. (My money would be on not.)
      - kingsuper20 6y ago
        I wouldn't bet against you. I don't think they know enough yet to construct ASICs and decide on consumer-priced sensors. Hellaciously interesting problem though, I wish I were working on it.
    - nickik 6y ago
      And IBM360 was software locked on performance, not exactly a new business model.
- high_derivative 6y ago
  Why did you pay the $10k?
  - Kye 6y ago
    I think a lot of people saw it like a very, very, very expensive Kickstarter. They paid $10k to help make it happen. As is often the case with Kickstarters, it didn't match the hype.
    - Multiplayer 6y ago
      I don’t think that’s directionally wrong. I bought my first Tesla and all subsequent Tesla’s in part to support the global move to electric vehicles. I buy the FSD to help move us in that direction. I’m actually happy with their progress so far and I recognize they have a loooooong way to go. They are making great progress as is the industry as a whole both in electrics and driving Capabilities.
    - jcims 6y ago
      It's not purely speculative. Just hopped on their site to check, these are the features they say you get immediately today: * Navigate on Autopilot * Auto Lane Change * Autopark * Summon * Full Self-Driving Computer * Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control When Cadillac's Super Cruise option is $2,500, $10K is still a huge premium, but it doesn't look like you can get those features independent of the FSD package from Tesla.
      - SheinhardtWigCo 6y ago
        That’s a lie. None of these features actually work. It’s all total bullshit, intended to stave off the inevitable FSD lawsuits. They have pulled off one of the most brazen growth hacks ever. As someone who fell for it, I hope some justice is coming eventually, but I’m not holding my breath
        jcims 6y ago
        Which part is a lie? You can get those features without paying the $10k?
- staticman2 6y ago
  For the experience of feeling like you were living in the future with the other cool kids.
- fwip 6y ago
  Sounds like you (and so many others) were suckered by a charlatan.
- azinman2 6y ago
  A level 2 with more features and lots of risk.
- yumraj 6y ago
  Eligibility for a class action lawsuit.
- tenpies 6y ago
  It's a question all Tesla customers should be asking, and not just for "FS"D: Roadster deposits? Deposits opened in 2015. That's more than half a decade ago. The Roadster is still vapourware as far as anyone can tell. Barely gets mentioned anywhere except for the occasional outrageous Musk tweet lie "it will have rockets!". Tesla Semi? Deposits opened a couple years ago and the design isn't even finalized. The line to produce these does not exist yet. Tesla Cybertruck? At least the deposit is just $100, but this was a shift in interest-free capital raising by Tesla (volume instead of quantity). The design has not yet been completed, never mind the line - the pre-requisite line to produce the batteries this vehicle will use doesn't even exist yet. Now imagine if you had put any of those deposits in an alternative investment. Roadster deposit holders could be millionaires just off not putting down a deposit and instead putting it on anything - including Tesla stock. The stock is Tesla's real product. Everything else is something on the way to meeting the performance milestones so Musk can get hits bonuses, but the good news is he can help you get a bonus too since you could have bought shares.
  - bitexploder 6y ago
    If you were making a deposit on a Roadster you were probably already a millionaire (initial deposit was 250k). Also, in an index fund doing 7-8% interest you couldn’t even double that 250k in 5 years. It’s not really fair to make that statement based on actual performance. Your other claims are accurate, but do people care? Tesla fans have shown a lot of patience and they have always delivered eventually. On everything but FSD.
    - Hamuko 6y ago
      >Tesla fans have shown a lot of patience and they have always delivered eventually. On everything but FSD. What happened to the battery swaps and tentacle porn charging cable?
      - bitexploder 6y ago
        No idea. I only follow things at a high level. Wife likes her Model 3. Great performance and value for the price. She hasn’t tried autopilot once and we never paid for FSD. I don’t think the market really cares about FSD. Tesla is the first modern and new auto maker in decades to really see any significant cultural and market penetration. I’ll give Elon a pass, or rather Tesla a pass for Elon’s overhyping everything. What they have done and delivered is quite amazing to me.
- root_axis 6y ago
  Smart Summon? That's about it I think.
- sschueller 6y ago
  Snake oil. /s. Many have been warning that FSD will not happen in the lifetime of these tesla's but people want to believe and they believe everything Elon promises. In a way selling FSD using FOMO that when it becomes available it will cost x times more is a brilliant yet devious tactic.
  - tzs 6y ago
    I think companies need to develop some products for intermediate stages between where we are now and FSD. Here are some ideas. 1. FSD in certain parking lots. Make deals with some major stores that tend to have big parking lots (such Walmart, Target, Home Depot) to map their parking lots and designate specific areas for rider drop off and for unattended parking. Special signage or road markings would be added to the parking lot to identify these areas and how to move between them. You can drive to one of these lots, go to the drop off area, and get out of your car. The car then can drive itself to the designated parking area while you go in and shop. When you are done, you can summon it and it drives back to the drop off area to get you. 2. FSD on certain stretches of major freeways. E.g., I-10 between Santa Monica and near downtown Los Angeles, or I-5 from where 99 splits off south of Bakersfield up to where the 580 starts and then up that a ways. 3. A service where for a monthly subscription you get FSD or close to it but only on trips between specific points, such as between your home and office. The way it would work is that you would drive the route several times and the car records it and uploads it to the company. They use that uploaded data to test their FSD software to see if it can handle that particular route, and tweak it as necessary to either handle places it was having trouble or to hard-code special rules. If the car notices that something has changed and it isn't sure it can handle it, you have to go back to manual driving and the car uploads footage and sensor data and the company fixes it. Each route would probably have a setup fee and a monthly maintenance fee.
    - Animats 6y ago
      FSD in certain parking lots. That's what I was originally thinking of as the minimum viable product in my DARPA Grand Challenge days. Mostly for rental cars at airports. If you'd booked a rental car, one would arrive at the terminal ready for use, and you'd get in and drive away manually. For airport departure, you'd leave the vehicle at the terminal, and it would slowly drive itself back to the rental lot. No need to go faster than 20 MPH, and you could put markers and sensors in the roads if necessary. There's been too little done with slow-speed automatic driving. Google made their little bubble car, but dropped that product. There are some fully automated shuttle buses, but that's a tiny business. About 25 companies are in that business, but other than Baidu, few have any deployments beyond test scale.
- isbvhodnvemrwvn 6y ago
  A corporate bond with an extremely low likelihood of paying off with little or no consequences for the issuer.
- detaro 6y ago
  Betting that it'd work and increase the value of your car. And Musk is still selling that it'll work really soon now (of course, he also said it'd drive across the country by itself by 2018): 2020 Q4 Earnings call, 27th Jan 2021 (according to https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te...) Musk: So -- and this is -- basically I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year. [...] <later> Director of Investor Relations: [...] The next question is, why are you confident Tesla will achieve Level 5 autonomy in 2021? [...] Musk: I guess, I'm confident based on my understanding of the technical roadmap and the progress that we're making between each beta iteration.
  - Hamuko 6y ago
    Am I understanding correctly that Elon is confident in Tesla jumping from level 2 to level 5 in the next eight months?
    - detaro 6y ago
      Appears so, at least for what they can internally do. Also was surprised he's still pushing that.
    - xkjkls 6y ago
      Yes, but given he was confident they would hit level 5 three years ago, his confidence doesn't seem to be worth much.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  Tuition.
- rsynnott 6y ago
  Don’t think of it as a purchase so much as a special indulgence to St Elon of Car. More seriously, can you still ask for your money back? This whole business of selling something that doesn’t exist and may never exist is pretty odd.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- pjc50 6y ago
  You paid for Musk to invest in cryptocurrency.
- brokenmachine 6y ago
  Consider it a lesson in common sense.
clcuc 6y ago
This might not be directly related to the article, but I was wondering if other self-driving companies also made overoptimistic claims. As an example, Honda doesn't seem to make too many over-hyped promises [0]. [0]: https://www.honda.co.jp/news/2021/4210304-legend.html https://www.honda.co.jp/news/2021/4210304-legend.html
- ghaff 6y ago
  Car companies whose name is not Tesla have generally been pretty realistic in my experience because they're pretty much fine with continuing down the path of improving assistive systems (and incrementally developing EVs). They're fine with not having FSD so long as others don't. With the somewhat exception of Waymo (which I don't really understand although it's probably related to internal incentives) the companies making the more outrageous claims are mostly companies who see FSD as a secret sauce that's essential to their business.
halotrope 6y ago
This is indeed newly listed as a risk factor in connection with FSD features. Items from the previous 10k where about competition and regulation: - "For example, Model 3 and Model Y face competition from existing and future automobile manufacturers in the extremely competitive entry-level premium sedan and compact SUV markets, including BMW, Ford, Lexus, Mercedes, Volkswagen Group and Volvo. A significant and growing number of established and new automobile manufacturers, as well as other companies, have entered or are reported to have plans to enter the alternative fuel vehicle market, including hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, as well as the market for self-driving technology and other vehicle applications and software platforms." [1] - "In particular, we offer in our vehicles Autopilot and FSD features that today assist drivers with certain tedious and potentially dangerous aspects of road travel, but which currently require drivers to remain engaged. We are continuing to develop our FSD technology with the goal of achieving full self-driving capability in the future. There is a variety of international, federal and state regulations that may apply to self-driving vehicles, which include many existing vehicle standards that were not originally intended to apply to vehicles that may not have a driver. Such regulations continue to rapidly change, which increases the likelihood of a patchwork of complex or conflicting regulations, or may delay products or restrict self-driving features and availability, which could adversely affect our business. " [1] 1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data//1318605/000156459020047486/tsla-10q_20200930.htm#ITEM_1A_RISK_FACTORS https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data//1318605/00015645902...
- ghaff 6y ago
  While some of it was almost certainly hucksterism, I think it's also true that a lot of people saw the rapid pace of advance (mostly because of ML computer vision) and just couldn't imagine that the remaining kinks wouldn't be worked out sooner rather than later. And young urbanites in particular so wanted to believe in a world where they wouldn't need to own a car and would effectively have a personal driver to whisk them around and run errands for them. Go back a few years and many here were incredulous if anyone suggested we might be looking at decades to have full door-to-door self-driving.
  - halotrope 6y ago
einpoklum 6y ago
So, I guess they're now offering full self-claim-back-walking cars then? (rimshot)
halotrope 6y ago
Meanwhile Mobileye is quietly crushing it. Below videos show apparently unedited driving for 40+ minutes in heavy traffic in Israel and Germany. Of course this is marketing material so to be taken with a grain of salt but it looks like they are really for ahead in real world driving / decision making. Also the perception layer looks way more stable than the current FSD Beta (I think 8.1). - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJD5R_yQ9aw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJD5R_yQ9aw - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1qNdHPyHu4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1qNdHPyHu4
- jacquesm 6y ago
  Indeed, one of the more impressive performances to date. But: if half of the cars would drive like this (all over the road, splitting lanes, not merging efficiently, deciding late and braking harder than necessary through lack of anticipation) then it would become a pretty big mess on the road. Still, those are bugs that can likely be ironed out, at least they didn't pick an easy track to pretend the tech is better than it really is.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    Driving in Jerusalem is a nightmare for humans too, the first video was really impressive. It’s a shame they didn’t add road sign detection to the overlay it’s harder to judge some of the situations especially around right of way since in Israel right of way is for traffic incoming from the right unless there is a sign that tells you to yield so some of the more dodgy situations involved drivers not yielding correctly. Overall they do seem to be currently quietly leading the pack and most importantly they are delivering an evolutionary progression as far as assistive driving goes. Also it’s quite interesting that Mobileye seems to be one of the only few if not the only one that is not relying on deep learning to brute force this problem. Which is think would be the deciding factor here since it reduces the demand on the hardware and results in a subset of more efficient algorithms which in theory can be formally verified and individually tweaked.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
righttorepair 6y ago
George Hotz from Comma has discussed this in interviews + podcasts, and has said that FSD is further away than the hype makes it seem. It's why he knew Comma had a shot at assisted driving against Tesla, and this just proves he's right in that regard.
- nickik 6y ago
  He also said that he thinks Tesla is ahead of everybody else, but that part is often not repeated.
SheinhardtWigCo 6y ago
Question for legal-minded folks: at what point is a class action likely to succeed, if ever? Are they basically safe for as long as they keep incrementally shipping level 2 assistance features and calling them “FSD”? That seems to be the strategy for now.
- manquer 6y ago
  It is more likely to succeed with mis leading advertising. Especially in markets like UK with strong regulations on ads.
morpheos137 6y ago
I see one's reaction to Tesla, Musk, "AI" and all the FSD hype as a kind of real-world IQ test. No way in hell anybody should be hired for a responsible, technical role if they paid Musk for FSD.
hbarka 6y ago
Imagine where Tesla would be if not for the hubristic dismissal of LIDAR by their all-knowing boss.
- nickik 6y ago
  At a worse place? I really don't get your comment. LIDAR of the type used by Waymo simply isn't possible to be put into a standard car of the price of a Model 3 or even Model S. So these cars would simply have been delivered without that hardware. Some limited types of lidar are only now starting to make their way into cars, but those are not near the required resolution. Even if you assume magically they could have done that, even with LIDAR nobody has solved self-driving yet. So what are you base your assumption on that they would be further along?

108 points by Alupis 6y ago

So they are filing a document with SEC, it has a"Risks" section. They mention as a risk that the full self-driving might never work. I'm surprised if they had never mentioned that risk before, but the article seems to suggest that.

BooneJS 6y ago

So what did I pay $10k for?

Hamuko 6y ago
Full* Self*-Driving (terms and conditions apply)
pudmaidai 6y ago
Dogecoin, indirectly, without interest
toomuchtodo 6y ago
This is a great question to ask via arbitration or a class action (if you opted out of arbitration when you bought the vehicle). I also expect a securities fraud suit, as Tesla has been recognizing revenue in self selected milestones for FSD. Disclosure: Tesla S/X owner (EAP, no FSD), party to the class action regarding S/X premature suspension failures.
- Isinlor 6y ago
  Any sources on Tesla cashing in on revenue from FSD? Edit. I've found it: https://seekingalpha.com/filing/5494291 https://seekingalpha.com/filing/5494291 > Deferred revenue activity related to the access to our Supercharger network, internet connectivity, Full Self Driving (“FSD”) features and over-the-air software updates on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantee amounted to $2.00 billion and $1.93 billion as of March 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, respectively. > Deferred revenue is equivalent to the total transaction price allocated to the performance obligations that are unsatisfied, or partially unsatisfied, as of the balance sheet date. Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2020 and 2019 was $79 million and $57 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. Of the total deferred revenue on automotive sales with and without resale value guarantees as of March 31, 2021, we expect to recognize $1.21 billion of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized over the performance period which is generally the expected ownership life of the vehicle or the eight-year life of the vehicle. Oh well. The lawsuits will be interesting to watch. I'm sorry for the people who have been fooled into purchasing FSD. IMO they have less than 50% chance that they will actually get a car that drives itself without babysitting before 2025.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- zitterbewegung 6y ago
  Also, false advertising.
lscotte 6y ago
Cult membership dues.
- MomoXenosaga 6y ago
  Harsh but I have to say is there a car company with the kind of hype and fanboyism of Tesla? I understand 5 years ago when Tesla was doing things nobody else was doing but electric cars are mainstream now. If I had the money I'd be buying a Volvo Polestar.
  - Kye 6y ago
    Saturn had a similar fan club, but I don't think it was as vocal.
  - Hamuko 6y ago
    >Harsh but I have to say is there a car company with the kind of hype and fanboyism of Tesla? You need to drink the Kool-aid pretty hard in order to buy hypercars like the LaFerrari but there's not really anything on the scale of Tesla.
  - greedo 6y ago
    Jeep. I know so many people who love their Jeeps despite them largely being garbage. To me, Jeep is like Harley Davidson; they look great until they start to fall apart.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      Jeeps (of Wrangler/Rubicon variety) are good for a particular use case--high clearance 4WD. No, they don't last a long time doing that.
  - tempest_ 6y ago
    Yes, almost all of them. The pickup truck people are very brand loyal and don't forget the buy American crowd. You just see a lot of Tesla stuff because there is a cross section of tech people who like Tesla because it is marketed like a phone instead of a car.
ctdonath 6y ago
Like many technologies, FSD is a long hard road of complex technological development; alas, customers think it should work perfectly out of the box right now to meet lofty flippant expectations. Your $10k got you the hardware needed to self-drive to some degree, with improvements trickling in indefinitely. Can it drive you from here to there with very little (and decreasing) intervention? What did you actually expect (serious question)?
- kingsuper20 6y ago
  >Your $10k got you the hardware needed to self-drive to some degree Don't all new Teslas come with the hardware and the self-driving is a software upgrade? My impression was that the purchase basically locked in a price. I could be wrong on this. I'll be all-in on self-driving when I can use it to go to the bar and come home, until then it's mostly just an interesting technological exercise.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    At this point, I'm probably more interested in improving highway assistive systems. But, yes, there are many use cases that go by the wayside if you don't have reliable door-to-door driving without human input. There are questions about both whether the current sensor package is sufficient and even bigger questions about whether an upgrade to FSD happens in the life of the vehicle. (My money would be on not.)
    - kingsuper20 6y ago
      I wouldn't bet against you. I don't think they know enough yet to construct ASICs and decide on consumer-priced sensors. Hellaciously interesting problem though, I wish I were working on it.
  - nickik 6y ago
    And IBM360 was software locked on performance, not exactly a new business model.
high_derivative 6y ago
Why did you pay the $10k?
- Kye 6y ago
  I think a lot of people saw it like a very, very, very expensive Kickstarter. They paid $10k to help make it happen. As is often the case with Kickstarters, it didn't match the hype.
  - Multiplayer 6y ago
    I don’t think that’s directionally wrong. I bought my first Tesla and all subsequent Tesla’s in part to support the global move to electric vehicles. I buy the FSD to help move us in that direction. I’m actually happy with their progress so far and I recognize they have a loooooong way to go. They are making great progress as is the industry as a whole both in electrics and driving Capabilities.
  - jcims 6y ago
    It's not purely speculative. Just hopped on their site to check, these are the features they say you get immediately today: * Navigate on Autopilot * Auto Lane Change * Autopark * Summon * Full Self-Driving Computer * Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control When Cadillac's Super Cruise option is $2,500, $10K is still a huge premium, but it doesn't look like you can get those features independent of the FSD package from Tesla.
    - SheinhardtWigCo 6y ago
      That’s a lie. None of these features actually work. It’s all total bullshit, intended to stave off the inevitable FSD lawsuits. They have pulled off one of the most brazen growth hacks ever. As someone who fell for it, I hope some justice is coming eventually, but I’m not holding my breath
      - jcims 6y ago
        Which part is a lie? You can get those features without paying the $10k?
staticman2 6y ago
For the experience of feeling like you were living in the future with the other cool kids.
fwip 6y ago
Sounds like you (and so many others) were suckered by a charlatan.
azinman2 6y ago
A level 2 with more features and lots of risk.
yumraj 6y ago
Eligibility for a class action lawsuit.
tenpies 6y ago
It's a question all Tesla customers should be asking, and not just for "FS"D: Roadster deposits? Deposits opened in 2015. That's more than half a decade ago. The Roadster is still vapourware as far as anyone can tell. Barely gets mentioned anywhere except for the occasional outrageous Musk tweet lie "it will have rockets!". Tesla Semi? Deposits opened a couple years ago and the design isn't even finalized. The line to produce these does not exist yet. Tesla Cybertruck? At least the deposit is just $100, but this was a shift in interest-free capital raising by Tesla (volume instead of quantity). The design has not yet been completed, never mind the line - the pre-requisite line to produce the batteries this vehicle will use doesn't even exist yet. Now imagine if you had put any of those deposits in an alternative investment. Roadster deposit holders could be millionaires just off not putting down a deposit and instead putting it on anything - including Tesla stock. The stock is Tesla's real product. Everything else is something on the way to meeting the performance milestones so Musk can get hits bonuses, but the good news is he can help you get a bonus too since you could have bought shares.
- bitexploder 6y ago
  If you were making a deposit on a Roadster you were probably already a millionaire (initial deposit was 250k). Also, in an index fund doing 7-8% interest you couldn’t even double that 250k in 5 years. It’s not really fair to make that statement based on actual performance. Your other claims are accurate, but do people care? Tesla fans have shown a lot of patience and they have always delivered eventually. On everything but FSD.
  - Hamuko 6y ago
    >Tesla fans have shown a lot of patience and they have always delivered eventually. On everything but FSD. What happened to the battery swaps and tentacle porn charging cable?
    - bitexploder 6y ago
      No idea. I only follow things at a high level. Wife likes her Model 3. Great performance and value for the price. She hasn’t tried autopilot once and we never paid for FSD. I don’t think the market really cares about FSD. Tesla is the first modern and new auto maker in decades to really see any significant cultural and market penetration. I’ll give Elon a pass, or rather Tesla a pass for Elon’s overhyping everything. What they have done and delivered is quite amazing to me.
root_axis 6y ago
Smart Summon? That's about it I think.
sschueller 6y ago
Snake oil. /s. Many have been warning that FSD will not happen in the lifetime of these tesla's but people want to believe and they believe everything Elon promises. In a way selling FSD using FOMO that when it becomes available it will cost x times more is a brilliant yet devious tactic.
- tzs 6y ago
  I think companies need to develop some products for intermediate stages between where we are now and FSD. Here are some ideas. 1. FSD in certain parking lots. Make deals with some major stores that tend to have big parking lots (such Walmart, Target, Home Depot) to map their parking lots and designate specific areas for rider drop off and for unattended parking. Special signage or road markings would be added to the parking lot to identify these areas and how to move between them. You can drive to one of these lots, go to the drop off area, and get out of your car. The car then can drive itself to the designated parking area while you go in and shop. When you are done, you can summon it and it drives back to the drop off area to get you. 2. FSD on certain stretches of major freeways. E.g., I-10 between Santa Monica and near downtown Los Angeles, or I-5 from where 99 splits off south of Bakersfield up to where the 580 starts and then up that a ways. 3. A service where for a monthly subscription you get FSD or close to it but only on trips between specific points, such as between your home and office. The way it would work is that you would drive the route several times and the car records it and uploads it to the company. They use that uploaded data to test their FSD software to see if it can handle that particular route, and tweak it as necessary to either handle places it was having trouble or to hard-code special rules. If the car notices that something has changed and it isn't sure it can handle it, you have to go back to manual driving and the car uploads footage and sensor data and the company fixes it. Each route would probably have a setup fee and a monthly maintenance fee.
  - Animats 6y ago
    FSD in certain parking lots. That's what I was originally thinking of as the minimum viable product in my DARPA Grand Challenge days. Mostly for rental cars at airports. If you'd booked a rental car, one would arrive at the terminal ready for use, and you'd get in and drive away manually. For airport departure, you'd leave the vehicle at the terminal, and it would slowly drive itself back to the rental lot. No need to go faster than 20 MPH, and you could put markers and sensors in the roads if necessary. There's been too little done with slow-speed automatic driving. Google made their little bubble car, but dropped that product. There are some fully automated shuttle buses, but that's a tiny business. About 25 companies are in that business, but other than Baidu, few have any deployments beyond test scale.
isbvhodnvemrwvn 6y ago
A corporate bond with an extremely low likelihood of paying off with little or no consequences for the issuer.
detaro 6y ago
Betting that it'd work and increase the value of your car. And Musk is still selling that it'll work really soon now (of course, he also said it'd drive across the country by itself by 2018): 2020 Q4 Earnings call, 27th Jan 2021 (according to https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript/ https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/01/27/te...) Musk: So -- and this is -- basically I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year. [...] <later> Director of Investor Relations: [...] The next question is, why are you confident Tesla will achieve Level 5 autonomy in 2021? [...] Musk: I guess, I'm confident based on my understanding of the technical roadmap and the progress that we're making between each beta iteration.
- Hamuko 6y ago
  Am I understanding correctly that Elon is confident in Tesla jumping from level 2 to level 5 in the next eight months?
  - detaro 6y ago
    Appears so, at least for what they can internally do. Also was surprised he's still pushing that.
  - xkjkls 6y ago
    Yes, but given he was confident they would hit level 5 three years ago, his confidence doesn't seem to be worth much.
jacquesm 6y ago
Tuition.
rsynnott 6y ago
Don’t think of it as a purchase so much as a special indulgence to St Elon of Car. More seriously, can you still ask for your money back? This whole business of selling something that doesn’t exist and may never exist is pretty odd.
- deleted 6y ago
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pjc50 6y ago
You paid for Musk to invest in cryptocurrency.
brokenmachine 6y ago
Consider it a lesson in common sense.

clcuc 6y ago

This might not be directly related to the article, but I was wondering if other self-driving companies also made overoptimistic claims. As an example, Honda doesn't seem to make too many over-hyped promises [0]. [0]: https://www.honda.co.jp/news/2021/4210304-legend.html https://www.honda.co.jp/news/2021/4210304-legend.html

ghaff 6y ago
Car companies whose name is not Tesla have generally been pretty realistic in my experience because they're pretty much fine with continuing down the path of improving assistive systems (and incrementally developing EVs). They're fine with not having FSD so long as others don't. With the somewhat exception of Waymo (which I don't really understand although it's probably related to internal incentives) the companies making the more outrageous claims are mostly companies who see FSD as a secret sauce that's essential to their business.

halotrope 6y ago

This is indeed newly listed as a risk factor in connection with FSD features. Items from the previous 10k where about competition and regulation: - "For example, Model 3 and Model Y face competition from existing and future automobile manufacturers in the extremely competitive entry-level premium sedan and compact SUV markets, including BMW, Ford, Lexus, Mercedes, Volkswagen Group and Volvo. A significant and growing number of established and new automobile manufacturers, as well as other companies, have entered or are reported to have plans to enter the alternative fuel vehicle market, including hybrid, plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, as well as the market for self-driving technology and other vehicle applications and software platforms." [1] - "In particular, we offer in our vehicles Autopilot and FSD features that today assist drivers with certain tedious and potentially dangerous aspects of road travel, but which currently require drivers to remain engaged. We are continuing to develop our FSD technology with the goal of achieving full self-driving capability in the future. There is a variety of international, federal and state regulations that may apply to self-driving vehicles, which include many existing vehicle standards that were not originally intended to apply to vehicles that may not have a driver. Such regulations continue to rapidly change, which increases the likelihood of a patchwork of complex or conflicting regulations, or may delay products or restrict self-driving features and availability, which could adversely affect our business. " [1] 1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data//1318605/000156459020047486/tsla-10q_20200930.htm#ITEM_1A_RISK_FACTORS https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data//1318605/00015645902...

ghaff 6y ago
While some of it was almost certainly hucksterism, I think it's also true that a lot of people saw the rapid pace of advance (mostly because of ML computer vision) and just couldn't imagine that the remaining kinks wouldn't be worked out sooner rather than later. And young urbanites in particular so wanted to believe in a world where they wouldn't need to own a car and would effectively have a personal driver to whisk them around and run errands for them. Go back a few years and many here were incredulous if anyone suggested we might be looking at decades to have full door-to-door self-driving.
- halotrope 6y ago

einpoklum 6y ago

So, I guess they're now offering full self-claim-back-walking cars then? (rimshot)

halotrope 6y ago

Meanwhile Mobileye is quietly crushing it. Below videos show apparently unedited driving for 40+ minutes in heavy traffic in Israel and Germany. Of course this is marketing material so to be taken with a grain of salt but it looks like they are really for ahead in real world driving / decision making. Also the perception layer looks way more stable than the current FSD Beta (I think 8.1). - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJD5R_yQ9aw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJD5R_yQ9aw - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1qNdHPyHu4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1qNdHPyHu4

jacquesm 6y ago
Indeed, one of the more impressive performances to date. But: if half of the cars would drive like this (all over the road, splitting lanes, not merging efficiently, deciding late and braking harder than necessary through lack of anticipation) then it would become a pretty big mess on the road. Still, those are bugs that can likely be ironed out, at least they didn't pick an easy track to pretend the tech is better than it really is.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  Driving in Jerusalem is a nightmare for humans too, the first video was really impressive. It’s a shame they didn’t add road sign detection to the overlay it’s harder to judge some of the situations especially around right of way since in Israel right of way is for traffic incoming from the right unless there is a sign that tells you to yield so some of the more dodgy situations involved drivers not yielding correctly. Overall they do seem to be currently quietly leading the pack and most importantly they are delivering an evolutionary progression as far as assistive driving goes. Also it’s quite interesting that Mobileye seems to be one of the only few if not the only one that is not relying on deep learning to brute force this problem. Which is think would be the deciding factor here since it reduces the demand on the hardware and results in a subset of more efficient algorithms which in theory can be formally verified and individually tweaked.
deleted 6y ago
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righttorepair 6y ago

George Hotz from Comma has discussed this in interviews + podcasts, and has said that FSD is further away than the hype makes it seem. It's why he knew Comma had a shot at assisted driving against Tesla, and this just proves he's right in that regard.

nickik 6y ago
He also said that he thinks Tesla is ahead of everybody else, but that part is often not repeated.

SheinhardtWigCo 6y ago

Question for legal-minded folks: at what point is a class action likely to succeed, if ever? Are they basically safe for as long as they keep incrementally shipping level 2 assistance features and calling them “FSD”? That seems to be the strategy for now.

manquer 6y ago
It is more likely to succeed with mis leading advertising. Especially in markets like UK with strong regulations on ads.

morpheos137 6y ago

I see one's reaction to Tesla, Musk, "AI" and all the FSD hype as a kind of real-world IQ test. No way in hell anybody should be hired for a responsible, technical role if they paid Musk for FSD.

hbarka 6y ago

Imagine where Tesla would be if not for the hubristic dismissal of LIDAR by their all-knowing boss.

nickik 6y ago
At a worse place? I really don't get your comment. LIDAR of the type used by Waymo simply isn't possible to be put into a standard car of the price of a Model 3 or even Model S. So these cars would simply have been delivered without that hardware. Some limited types of lidar are only now starting to make their way into cars, but those are not near the required resolution. Even if you assume magically they could have done that, even with LIDAR nobody has solved self-driving yet. So what are you base your assumption on that they would be further along?