4 ms·

Those numbers are based on the lack of crematorium facilities and the obvious queues of bodies lined outside for cremation. I know of at least 7 people dying in

by mlnj 5y ago

Those numbers are based on the lack of crematorium facilities and the obvious queues of bodies lined outside for cremation. I know of at least 7 people dying in the last 7 days. The official numbers mean nothing anymore.

jeswin 5y ago
Can you please read my comment again? Please don't turn this forum into a political propaganda platform.
- mlnj 5y ago
  Political propaganda is the last thing on my mind right now. Here's some sources for the lack of cremation facilities. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the-limit-crematoria-staring-at-acute-wood-shortage/articleshow/82282020.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the... https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-overwhelmed-virus-swallows-people-77296870 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-... https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-crematoriums-corpses-wait-in-20-hour-queues-to-burn-101619522536735.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-cr... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the-cremation-queue/articleshow/82220337.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the... This is not in line with only 3500 people dying all over the country. This is in line with the range the above comment mentions. My anecdote of people dying my inner circle is not political. Neither is my opinion that the official numbers are to be not trusted given the evidence.
  - exporectomy 5y ago
    Can you say the actual facts and/or calculations that lead to 10x? From what you've said, it could be that crematoriums were already operating just below capacity and are now just above capacity, causing growing backlogs even with only a very small increase in demand.
    - mlnj 5y ago
      >From what you've said, it could be that crematoriums were already operating just below capacity and are now just above capacity, causing growing backlogs even with only a very small increase in demand. Can't be the case throughout the country in all affected districts and all densely populated states. You see reports of crematoriums running 24/7 and still not able to fulfill the demand for cremations and find it reasonable to land on any other conclusion but people are dying. I think I've presented enough.
    - ramraj07 5y ago
      Even NYT estimates the real numbers might be 10x reported, and I would also expect that to be a reasonable estimate. Roughly a quarter of the people I know tested positive in the past month, it's not possible with such a high infection rate only 3000 people die in a day. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...
      - IanCal 5y ago
        The UK peaked at ~1200/day, with a population 1/20th the size. That's "only" 24K scaled up, looking at India now it's hard to picture things as being only a bit worse than the UK peak.
    - lordnacho 5y ago
      My guess is that for a lot of processes, crematoria included, capacity is not some fixed number below which everything is fine and above which the backlog piles up. It's like my parents' restaurant, you can get busier and busier without there being a wall. When you "hit capacity" you find you're doing many things that you weren't normally doing, like being open a lot longer, asking for longer shifts from staff, rationing things that you wouldn't normally ration.
  - jeswin 5y ago
    Well, I am only objecting to unsupported numbers being thrown around. How do you go from "crematoriums being pushed to the limit" to 10-100X Covid deaths? Extraordinary claims (such as up to 3 million deaths in ten days) require extraordinary evidence. My response, if you notice, was specifically about that claim. And I also did not fail to mention that deaths are underreported.
    - Dylan16807 5y ago
      Are you objecting specifically to the 100? It seems clear enough to me that it's not supposed to be a very tight estimate. Would "an order of magnitude or two" be better? Or "an order of magnitude or more"? And it definitely suggests that the amount of under-reporting varies by area, so it's even more unfair for you to multiply the entire country's number by 100 as your goalpost.
      - jeswin 5y ago
        I am objecting to people making up numbers, when no such data is available. Like the parent post for instance, connecting reports of crematoriums being full to order-of-magnitude scale (10X or more) undocumented Covid deaths. There are however, other reports you can quote: - The Print (not govt-leaning) "If you claim India’s Covid death toll is 2x govt figure, it’s understandable. But not 10x" [1] - NYTimes: Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan who has been following India closely. “From all the modeling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported.” [2] In short, I strongly feel throwing numbers around without basis simply widens the chasm. [1]: https://theprint.in/opinion/if-you-claim-indias-covid-death-toll-is-2x-govt-figure-its-understandable-but-not-10x/647994/ https://theprint.in/opinion/if-you-claim-indias-covid-death-... [2]: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...
Xplune13 5y ago
Well, I would agree that the actual death count is bigger than what is reported but 10x is a LOT and claiming extraordinary 100x is ridiculous unless someone gives proper evidence for that. All the shortages in crematorium facilities are really unfortunate but they are basically near Delhi region. Basing your overall 10x figure for the ENTIRE India on 1 region (granted it is one of the biggest in the nation) is not right unless you provide evidence for that. The figure in Delhi might be 5x-10x but for entire India? I don't know and one should definitely stay away from "I guess" or "I believe" in this situation unless you provide resources in my opinion.
- mlnj 5y ago
  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi... The lack of cremation facilities are reported throughout the country. It is not just about one region or the other. The under-reporting is reported in most places. The lack of tests in places like Kolkata shows that people even after showing symptoms can't get tested. All these point to the official government numbers being a fraction of the actual numbers. In an environment where the government is under-reporting and the news reports are the only ones showing the ground reality we can only speculate the actual number for the whole country. We may never do. Until that we can only opine and point to the evidence we have.
  - Xplune13 5y ago
    As I said earlier, I'm not saying that there isn't under reported death count. I said we cannot say anything about entire nation based on currently reported cases. Those report point out to that region and may not be applied to the whole nation. Eg. suppose 4 cities have 5x under reported cases, we cannot expand that to the entire nation until we conduct thorough research first. On top of that the OP stating 10-100x is mind numbingly large range. My earlier point was respect to that statement. Claiming 100x under reported deaths is too large of a number that if you put a number on that, it would empty most of the cities in matter of a month which clearly is not a case AFAIK. So, throwing these random numbers based on one's own opinion is not right especially when it is presented as a statement.
soperj 5y ago
I'm sorry to hear about the people you know dying. It's a horrible tragedy.

by mlnj 5y ago

jeswin 5y ago

Can you please read my comment again? Please don't turn this forum into a political propaganda platform.

mlnj 5y ago
Political propaganda is the last thing on my mind right now. Here's some sources for the lack of cremation facilities. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the-limit-crematoria-staring-at-acute-wood-shortage/articleshow/82282020.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the... https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-overwhelmed-virus-swallows-people-77296870 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-... https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-crematoriums-corpses-wait-in-20-hour-queues-to-burn-101619522536735.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-cr... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the-cremation-queue/articleshow/82220337.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the... This is not in line with only 3500 people dying all over the country. This is in line with the range the above comment mentions. My anecdote of people dying my inner circle is not political. Neither is my opinion that the official numbers are to be not trusted given the evidence.
- exporectomy 5y ago
  Can you say the actual facts and/or calculations that lead to 10x? From what you've said, it could be that crematoriums were already operating just below capacity and are now just above capacity, causing growing backlogs even with only a very small increase in demand.
  - mlnj 5y ago
    >From what you've said, it could be that crematoriums were already operating just below capacity and are now just above capacity, causing growing backlogs even with only a very small increase in demand. Can't be the case throughout the country in all affected districts and all densely populated states. You see reports of crematoriums running 24/7 and still not able to fulfill the demand for cremations and find it reasonable to land on any other conclusion but people are dying. I think I've presented enough.
  - ramraj07 5y ago
    Even NYT estimates the real numbers might be 10x reported, and I would also expect that to be a reasonable estimate. Roughly a quarter of the people I know tested positive in the past month, it's not possible with such a high infection rate only 3000 people die in a day. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...
    - IanCal 5y ago
      The UK peaked at ~1200/day, with a population 1/20th the size. That's "only" 24K scaled up, looking at India now it's hard to picture things as being only a bit worse than the UK peak.
  - lordnacho 5y ago
    My guess is that for a lot of processes, crematoria included, capacity is not some fixed number below which everything is fine and above which the backlog piles up. It's like my parents' restaurant, you can get busier and busier without there being a wall. When you "hit capacity" you find you're doing many things that you weren't normally doing, like being open a lot longer, asking for longer shifts from staff, rationing things that you wouldn't normally ration.
- jeswin 5y ago
  Well, I am only objecting to unsupported numbers being thrown around. How do you go from "crematoriums being pushed to the limit" to 10-100X Covid deaths? Extraordinary claims (such as up to 3 million deaths in ten days) require extraordinary evidence. My response, if you notice, was specifically about that claim. And I also did not fail to mention that deaths are underreported.
  - Dylan16807 5y ago
    Are you objecting specifically to the 100? It seems clear enough to me that it's not supposed to be a very tight estimate. Would "an order of magnitude or two" be better? Or "an order of magnitude or more"? And it definitely suggests that the amount of under-reporting varies by area, so it's even more unfair for you to multiply the entire country's number by 100 as your goalpost.
    - jeswin 5y ago
      I am objecting to people making up numbers, when no such data is available. Like the parent post for instance, connecting reports of crematoriums being full to order-of-magnitude scale (10X or more) undocumented Covid deaths. There are however, other reports you can quote: - The Print (not govt-leaning) "If you claim India’s Covid death toll is 2x govt figure, it’s understandable. But not 10x" [1] - NYTimes: Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan who has been following India closely. “From all the modeling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported.” [2] In short, I strongly feel throwing numbers around without basis simply widens the chasm. [1]: https://theprint.in/opinion/if-you-claim-indias-covid-death-toll-is-2x-govt-figure-its-understandable-but-not-10x/647994/ https://theprint.in/opinion/if-you-claim-indias-covid-death-... [2]: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...

Xplune13 5y ago

Well, I would agree that the actual death count is bigger than what is reported but 10x is a LOT and claiming extraordinary 100x is ridiculous unless someone gives proper evidence for that. All the shortages in crematorium facilities are really unfortunate but they are basically near Delhi region. Basing your overall 10x figure for the ENTIRE India on 1 region (granted it is one of the biggest in the nation) is not right unless you provide evidence for that. The figure in Delhi might be 5x-10x but for entire India? I don't know and one should definitely stay away from "I guess" or "I believe" in this situation unless you provide resources in my opinion.

mlnj 5y ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi... The lack of cremation facilities are reported throughout the country. It is not just about one region or the other. The under-reporting is reported in most places. The lack of tests in places like Kolkata shows that people even after showing symptoms can't get tested. All these point to the official government numbers being a fraction of the actual numbers. In an environment where the government is under-reporting and the news reports are the only ones showing the ground reality we can only speculate the actual number for the whole country. We may never do. Until that we can only opine and point to the evidence we have.
- Xplune13 5y ago
  As I said earlier, I'm not saying that there isn't under reported death count. I said we cannot say anything about entire nation based on currently reported cases. Those report point out to that region and may not be applied to the whole nation. Eg. suppose 4 cities have 5x under reported cases, we cannot expand that to the entire nation until we conduct thorough research first. On top of that the OP stating 10-100x is mind numbingly large range. My earlier point was respect to that statement. Claiming 100x under reported deaths is too large of a number that if you put a number on that, it would empty most of the cities in matter of a month which clearly is not a case AFAIK. So, throwing these random numbers based on one's own opinion is not right especially when it is presented as a statement.

soperj 5y ago

I'm sorry to hear about the people you know dying. It's a horrible tragedy.