7 ms·

> Also note that covid deaths are around 10-100x more than the official records. So up to 350,000 people died just yesterday. And over the last ten days, up to

by jeswin 6y ago

> Also note that covid deaths are around 10-100x more than the official records. So up to 350,000 people died just yesterday. And over the last ten days, up to 3 million people died? While deaths are certainly underreported, it isn't helpful in a pandemic to throw random figures around.

mlnj 6y ago
Those numbers are based on the lack of crematorium facilities and the obvious queues of bodies lined outside for cremation. I know of at least 7 people dying in the last 7 days. The official numbers mean nothing anymore.
- jeswin 6y ago
  Can you please read my comment again? Please don't turn this forum into a political propaganda platform.
  - mlnj 6y ago
    Political propaganda is the last thing on my mind right now. Here's some sources for the lack of cremation facilities. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the-limit-crematoria-staring-at-acute-wood-shortage/articleshow/82282020.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the... https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-overwhelmed-virus-swallows-people-77296870 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-... https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-crematoriums-corpses-wait-in-20-hour-queues-to-burn-101619522536735.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-cr... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the-cremation-queue/articleshow/82220337.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the... This is not in line with only 3500 people dying all over the country. This is in line with the range the above comment mentions. My anecdote of people dying my inner circle is not political. Neither is my opinion that the official numbers are to be not trusted given the evidence.
    - exporectomy 6y ago
      Can you say the actual facts and/or calculations that lead to 10x? From what you've said, it could be that crematoriums were already operating just below capacity and are now just above capacity, causing growing backlogs even with only a very small increase in demand.
      - mlnj 6y ago
        >From what you've said, it could be that crematoriums were already operating just below capacity and are now just above capacity, causing growing backlogs even with only a very small increase in demand. Can't be the case throughout the country in all affected districts and all densely populated states. You see reports of crematoriums running 24/7 and still not able to fulfill the demand for cremations and find it reasonable to land on any other conclusion but people are dying. I think I've presented enough.
      - ramraj07 6y ago
        Even NYT estimates the real numbers might be 10x reported, and I would also expect that to be a reasonable estimate. Roughly a quarter of the people I know tested positive in the past month, it's not possible with such a high infection rate only 3000 people die in a day. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...
        IanCal 6y ago
        The UK peaked at ~1200/day, with a population 1/20th the size. That's "only" 24K scaled up, looking at India now it's hard to picture things as being only a bit worse than the UK peak.
      - lordnacho 6y ago
        My guess is that for a lot of processes, crematoria included, capacity is not some fixed number below which everything is fine and above which the backlog piles up. It's like my parents' restaurant, you can get busier and busier without there being a wall. When you "hit capacity" you find you're doing many things that you weren't normally doing, like being open a lot longer, asking for longer shifts from staff, rationing things that you wouldn't normally ration.
- Xplune13 6y ago
  Well, I would agree that the actual death count is bigger than what is reported but 10x is a LOT and claiming extraordinary 100x is ridiculous unless someone gives proper evidence for that. All the shortages in crematorium facilities are really unfortunate but they are basically near Delhi region. Basing your overall 10x figure for the ENTIRE India on 1 region (granted it is one of the biggest in the nation) is not right unless you provide evidence for that. The figure in Delhi might be 5x-10x but for entire India? I don't know and one should definitely stay away from "I guess" or "I believe" in this situation unless you provide resources in my opinion.
  - mlnj 6y ago
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi... The lack of cremation facilities are reported throughout the country. It is not just about one region or the other. The under-reporting is reported in most places. The lack of tests in places like Kolkata shows that people even after showing symptoms can't get tested. All these point to the official government numbers being a fraction of the actual numbers. In an environment where the government is under-reporting and the news reports are the only ones showing the ground reality we can only speculate the actual number for the whole country. We may never do. Until that we can only opine and point to the evidence we have.
    - Xplune13 6y ago
      As I said earlier, I'm not saying that there isn't under reported death count. I said we cannot say anything about entire nation based on currently reported cases. Those report point out to that region and may not be applied to the whole nation. Eg. suppose 4 cities have 5x under reported cases, we cannot expand that to the entire nation until we conduct thorough research first. On top of that the OP stating 10-100x is mind numbingly large range. My earlier point was respect to that statement. Claiming 100x under reported deaths is too large of a number that if you put a number on that, it would empty most of the cities in matter of a month which clearly is not a case AFAIK. So, throwing these random numbers based on one's own opinion is not right especially when it is presented as a statement.
- soperj 6y ago
  I'm sorry to hear about the people you know dying. It's a horrible tragedy.
intended 6y ago
100x is not what I’ve heard but I’ve definitely heard of 10x the number of cases actually reported. Sources are crematorium staff describing how many additional bodies they have to burn and epidemiologists.
- noufalibrahim 6y ago
  From 15 to 100 as reported here by a crematorium worker. So slightly below 10x. https://www.ft.com/content/39ad9165-fc31-42ff-86d5-317d32ecfe6d https://www.ft.com/content/39ad9165-fc31-42ff-86d5-317d32ecf...
kumarharsh 6y ago
It's like a game of Chinese whispers where the multiplier keeps on growing everytime the number is mentioned.
- atat7024 6y ago
  Well that's an unfortunate phrase to choose.
AmIDev 6y ago
While 100x is unlikely all over the country, it's surely happening in some places at least. In my district of Kolhapur in Maharashtra, the district officials report 30-40 deaths per day, while official numbers stay at 1-3. That means the state is under reporting by 10x to 40x. And this is still counting only those people who, 1. died in hospital after being tested +ve for covid 2. did not have any comorbidity, as then they'd be classified under that comorbidity, however ridiculous it might seem(e.g. person dying of diabetes when infected by covid) So actual numbers are likely to be much higher, given that all beds were full already last week itself. Note that this is an opposition ruled state. Situation is even worse in BJP ruled states, where for example, 1. Tests are done only for few hours a day. 2. People are being charged with spreading misinformation for asking for oxygen cylinders on social media. 3. Deaths are being under reported heavily. 4. crematoriums are not accessible to reporters.
- okpatil 6y ago
  Hello, fellow Kolhapuri here. Maybe we can connect.
- jeswin 6y ago
  > Situation is even worse in BJP ruled states I happen to live in Bangalore (BJP ruled). There's certainly no evidence of 10-40x underreporting of deaths happening here. I don't doubt at all that they're underreported though; but to a smaller extent. Do you have any links?
  - AmIDev 6y ago
    I haven't heard of data fudging in Bangalore from media, so far. Here are some reports about Gujarat[1][2] [1] https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-gujarat-the-states-media-is-on-a-warpath-with-the-government-over-covid-19 https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-guja... [2] https://caravanmagazine.in/health/how-gujarat-is-undercounting-its-covid19-deaths https://caravanmagazine.in/health/how-gujarat-is-undercounti...
    - wornohaulus 6y ago
capybara_2020 6y ago
Numbers are being significantly underreported. Although it might not be 10-100x everywhere. It is a mix. Some places it is 2x, some places it is 100x. Have a look at this article to get a sense of the scale of the problem. https://www.article-14.com/post/bjp-states-hiding-covid-19-deaths-are-endangering-india-s-health-response https://www.article-14.com/post/bjp-states-hiding-covid-19-d...
rraghur 6y ago
Multiple models predict daily new infections to be anywhere between 20 - 30x under reported (uni of Michigan and I think u of w) There are enough and more ground reports from various cities of data from crematoriums being >10x more than official counts There is large scale, govt backed effort to not report in a few states for ex UP which is most populous - govt was directing labs not to take samples. and no admission to hospital as corona patient until you provide RTPcr test id(this is from a friend who's in the state capital and father's in the hospital now). Death rates 10x official counts overall wouldn't be surprising at all.
ganeshkrishnan 6y ago
>So up to 350,000 people died just yesterday. There were 200,000 cases and 1,200 deaths yesterday as per official reports. Unofficially yes, more than 10,000 people died. Not sure where you got the 350k numbers from

by jeswin 6y ago

mlnj 6y ago

Those numbers are based on the lack of crematorium facilities and the obvious queues of bodies lined outside for cremation. I know of at least 7 people dying in the last 7 days. The official numbers mean nothing anymore.

jeswin 6y ago
Can you please read my comment again? Please don't turn this forum into a political propaganda platform.
- mlnj 6y ago
  Political propaganda is the last thing on my mind right now. Here's some sources for the lack of cremation facilities. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the-limit-crematoria-staring-at-acute-wood-shortage/articleshow/82282020.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/pushed-to-the... https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-overwhelmed-virus-swallows-people-77296870 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/indias-crematoriums-... https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-crematoriums-corpses-wait-in-20-hour-queues-to-burn-101619522536735.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/at-delhi-cr... https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the-cremation-queue/articleshow/82220337.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/104th-in-the... This is not in line with only 3500 people dying all over the country. This is in line with the range the above comment mentions. My anecdote of people dying my inner circle is not political. Neither is my opinion that the official numbers are to be not trusted given the evidence.
  - exporectomy 6y ago
    Can you say the actual facts and/or calculations that lead to 10x? From what you've said, it could be that crematoriums were already operating just below capacity and are now just above capacity, causing growing backlogs even with only a very small increase in demand.
    - mlnj 6y ago
      >From what you've said, it could be that crematoriums were already operating just below capacity and are now just above capacity, causing growing backlogs even with only a very small increase in demand. Can't be the case throughout the country in all affected districts and all densely populated states. You see reports of crematoriums running 24/7 and still not able to fulfill the demand for cremations and find it reasonable to land on any other conclusion but people are dying. I think I've presented enough.
    - ramraj07 6y ago
      Even NYT estimates the real numbers might be 10x reported, and I would also expect that to be a reasonable estimate. Roughly a quarter of the people I know tested positive in the past month, it's not possible with such a high infection rate only 3000 people die in a day. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi...
      - IanCal 6y ago
        The UK peaked at ~1200/day, with a population 1/20th the size. That's "only" 24K scaled up, looking at India now it's hard to picture things as being only a bit worse than the UK peak.
    - lordnacho 6y ago
      My guess is that for a lot of processes, crematoria included, capacity is not some fixed number below which everything is fine and above which the backlog piles up. It's like my parents' restaurant, you can get busier and busier without there being a wall. When you "hit capacity" you find you're doing many things that you weren't normally doing, like being open a lot longer, asking for longer shifts from staff, rationing things that you wouldn't normally ration.
Xplune13 6y ago
Well, I would agree that the actual death count is bigger than what is reported but 10x is a LOT and claiming extraordinary 100x is ridiculous unless someone gives proper evidence for that. All the shortages in crematorium facilities are really unfortunate but they are basically near Delhi region. Basing your overall 10x figure for the ENTIRE India on 1 region (granted it is one of the biggest in the nation) is not right unless you provide evidence for that. The figure in Delhi might be 5x-10x but for entire India? I don't know and one should definitely stay away from "I guess" or "I believe" in this situation unless you provide resources in my opinion.
- mlnj 6y ago
  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavi... The lack of cremation facilities are reported throughout the country. It is not just about one region or the other. The under-reporting is reported in most places. The lack of tests in places like Kolkata shows that people even after showing symptoms can't get tested. All these point to the official government numbers being a fraction of the actual numbers. In an environment where the government is under-reporting and the news reports are the only ones showing the ground reality we can only speculate the actual number for the whole country. We may never do. Until that we can only opine and point to the evidence we have.
  - Xplune13 6y ago
    As I said earlier, I'm not saying that there isn't under reported death count. I said we cannot say anything about entire nation based on currently reported cases. Those report point out to that region and may not be applied to the whole nation. Eg. suppose 4 cities have 5x under reported cases, we cannot expand that to the entire nation until we conduct thorough research first. On top of that the OP stating 10-100x is mind numbingly large range. My earlier point was respect to that statement. Claiming 100x under reported deaths is too large of a number that if you put a number on that, it would empty most of the cities in matter of a month which clearly is not a case AFAIK. So, throwing these random numbers based on one's own opinion is not right especially when it is presented as a statement.
soperj 6y ago
I'm sorry to hear about the people you know dying. It's a horrible tragedy.

intended 6y ago

100x is not what I’ve heard but I’ve definitely heard of 10x the number of cases actually reported. Sources are crematorium staff describing how many additional bodies they have to burn and epidemiologists.

noufalibrahim 6y ago
From 15 to 100 as reported here by a crematorium worker. So slightly below 10x. https://www.ft.com/content/39ad9165-fc31-42ff-86d5-317d32ecfe6d https://www.ft.com/content/39ad9165-fc31-42ff-86d5-317d32ecf...

kumarharsh 6y ago

It's like a game of Chinese whispers where the multiplier keeps on growing everytime the number is mentioned.

atat7024 6y ago
Well that's an unfortunate phrase to choose.

AmIDev 6y ago

While 100x is unlikely all over the country, it's surely happening in some places at least. In my district of Kolhapur in Maharashtra, the district officials report 30-40 deaths per day, while official numbers stay at 1-3. That means the state is under reporting by 10x to 40x. And this is still counting only those people who, 1. died in hospital after being tested +ve for covid 2. did not have any comorbidity, as then they'd be classified under that comorbidity, however ridiculous it might seem(e.g. person dying of diabetes when infected by covid) So actual numbers are likely to be much higher, given that all beds were full already last week itself. Note that this is an opposition ruled state. Situation is even worse in BJP ruled states, where for example, 1. Tests are done only for few hours a day. 2. People are being charged with spreading misinformation for asking for oxygen cylinders on social media. 3. Deaths are being under reported heavily. 4. crematoriums are not accessible to reporters.

okpatil 6y ago
Hello, fellow Kolhapuri here. Maybe we can connect.
jeswin 6y ago
> Situation is even worse in BJP ruled states I happen to live in Bangalore (BJP ruled). There's certainly no evidence of 10-40x underreporting of deaths happening here. I don't doubt at all that they're underreported though; but to a smaller extent. Do you have any links?
- AmIDev 6y ago
  I haven't heard of data fudging in Bangalore from media, so far. Here are some reports about Gujarat[1][2] [1] https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-gujarat-the-states-media-is-on-a-warpath-with-the-government-over-covid-19 https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-guja... [2] https://caravanmagazine.in/health/how-gujarat-is-undercounting-its-covid19-deaths https://caravanmagazine.in/health/how-gujarat-is-undercounti...
  - wornohaulus 6y ago

capybara_2020 6y ago

Numbers are being significantly underreported. Although it might not be 10-100x everywhere. It is a mix. Some places it is 2x, some places it is 100x. Have a look at this article to get a sense of the scale of the problem. https://www.article-14.com/post/bjp-states-hiding-covid-19-deaths-are-endangering-india-s-health-response https://www.article-14.com/post/bjp-states-hiding-covid-19-d...

rraghur 6y ago

Multiple models predict daily new infections to be anywhere between 20 - 30x under reported (uni of Michigan and I think u of w) There are enough and more ground reports from various cities of data from crematoriums being >10x more than official counts There is large scale, govt backed effort to not report in a few states for ex UP which is most populous - govt was directing labs not to take samples. and no admission to hospital as corona patient until you provide RTPcr test id(this is from a friend who's in the state capital and father's in the hospital now). Death rates 10x official counts overall wouldn't be surprising at all.

ganeshkrishnan 6y ago

>So up to 350,000 people died just yesterday. There were 200,000 cases and 1,200 deaths yesterday as per official reports. Unofficially yes, more than 10,000 people died. Not sure where you got the 350k numbers from