5 ms·

They want to have a say in their country's future.

anovikov 6y ago
The choice is simple: Lukashenka or Putin. I'd pick Lukashenka, at least some form of quasi-independent Belarus is better than none at all. It is so patently obvious that no non-manipulated Belarus will be allowed to exist... Just because all country is Russian speaking - even to a bigger degree than Crimea and is wholly owned by the Russian propaganda reality tunnel.
- liaukovv 6y ago
  I don't believe those are the only choices.
  - trhway 6y ago
    Because of the history in those places, new Belarus will immediately try to join EU and NATO. That is an option which Russia will try to prevent. As history shows there are some windows of opportunity for the things to go either way. It seems that the major escalation is coming in Donbass - Ukraine has beefed up the forces, and in particular brought in the Turkish drones which (being very successful against Russian made tanks and air defenses) provided for the recent blitzkrieg in Azerbaijan (and the very cake-in-the-face moment for Russia who supported Armenia in that war), and Russia has massed up large force on the Donbass border - which would probably result in large involvement and losses for Russia, and that may be the window of opportunity for the things to quickly change. Of course it may also be a last stand nothing to lose moment for Russia and it will just force its way in Belarus.
    - liaukovv 6y ago
      Maybe in the face of growing russian agression nato will relax it's rules.
      - lb1lf 6y ago
        -More likely, rules will toughen up. The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence; no-one wants to be forced into a shooting war - hence I expect NATO to be very wary of accepting a member which may invoke article 5 pretty much the moment the accession ceremony is over. The Ukraine would have a much easier time getting into NATO if relations with Russia were cordial; however, as the mere act of exercising their sovereignty to join an alliance of their choosing is sufficient to prevent cordial relations with Russia... The problem, obviously, being that Russia is not content to be secure within its borders, but also desires to have a say in the affairs of neighbouring countries (Which, incidentally, makes these countries feel much less secure, hence making them more eager to join alliances to improve their lot, precisely the scenario Russia wishes to avoid.) Sigh.
        baybal2 6y ago
        > The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence There is no point of deterrence when if Ukraine is gone, and you have Russian tanks in Vienna in one week, Munich the other, and the rest of Europe in a month.
        sudosysgen 6y ago
        No, you will not. Russia cannot invade Vienna or Munich. Germany, France and Italy are each powerful enough to stall the Russian offensive. Russia will not even attempt it. Ukraine in comparison has a miserably weak military that is strongly outdated compared to Russia.
        baybal2 6y ago
        You think so? How much tanks does Germany have, and how much does Russia? I will do Googling for you. 354 vs 12000 Russia's tank force biggest problem? Having more tanks than pilots. Half of this tank fleet is in long term storage for this reason, and what's left half is in rather bad semi-written-off condition. If we let Russians to regain their breathe, it would not take them long to restore them, and regain this enormous military asset.
    - fakedang 6y ago
      EU and NATO will not let Belarus in because of a long standing agreement.
    - sudosysgen 6y ago
      The important thing about drone warfare campaigns is that they are only successful if the enemy is unwilling to challenge your air supremacy over your own territory. This is the case in Ukraine right now and in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia is unwilling, right now, to challenge all of Ukrainian airspace, and Armenia/Russia was unwilling to challenge Azerbaijani airspace. The moment this change is when the drone strategy is no longer effective. Drones only work when you have air supremacy over at least a staging area. When you do not, then there is not much to do. Also, Russia has it's own drones, which they are not using because they are in the defensive position right now. If there is a prompt for a Russian advancement or if the line becomes untenable, the drone-based strategies will collapse and the conflict will turn unless Ukraine can muster up something else. Simply put, Ukraine has no hope at all of contesting air supremacy with Russia. It's air force is incomparably worse, and drones have no anti-air capacity. But we are not there. Russia is nowhere near attempting a full-scale invasion and hasn't, they limited themselves to taking the Donbass and Crimea and defending it strictly, more or less. As for Russia in Armenia, there was not really any cake-on-the-face. Russia's policy was to stand-by unless Azerbaijan was threatening Armenia proper. Maybe Armenia could have negotiated another arrangement had their orientation been different, but as it stood Russia was unwilling to do much at all in the NK conflict. As it stands the balance of power is still overwhelmingly in the favor of Russia and it is not close.
      - adventured 6y ago
        It's strange that any of this is up for discussion. If Russia wants Ukraine, they're going to take it. Ukraine has no ability to fight with Russia. NATO isn't going to do anything directly (they'll push some weapons into Ukraine, that's it). What's going to happen is that Russia will slice Ukraine at the Dnieper River and also take all of Ukraine's Black Sea territory. That will include taking Odsesa and Kharkiv. By taking the territory south of Odesa, they'll get a large border with Moldova, and then they'll annex Moldova at some point or otherwise entirely control it as a puppet. There is no scenario where this doesn't happen. When Putin took Crimea, taking the rest of Ukraine's coastal waters was an obvious and inevitable step. The only thing left is timing, whenever Putin decides an ideal time to do it is. There's nothing the West can do to Russia at this point to stop any of this and Putin knows that. No nation in the West is going to war with Russia over these lands.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- postingawayonhn 6y ago
  You do realise that a lot of people in Russia want to get rid of Putin too? And neither dictator will live forever, both are in their late 60s.
  - ramtatatam 6y ago
    I'm reading about people wanting to get rid of Putin since at least 2010, the sad reality 10 years later is that he is still there...
    - viraptor 6y ago
      I don't think anyone who wants to get rid of Putin expected a change on the same day and gives up if that doesn't work. It will take time and a lot of work. (Unless they want an assassination)
      - ramtatatam 6y ago
        Nobody says that expectation is to change the dictator the same day, it's simple statement of fact, that it's much easier said than done.
  - pjc50 6y ago
    > both are in their late 60s. Joe Biden (78) just replaced Donald Trump (74). Prince Phillip died at the age of 99. Putin has a long way to go on natural lifespan.
  - T-A 6y ago
    35% of Russians disapprove of Putin, according to this: https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ 41% of Americans disapprove of Biden, according to this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
    - mariksolo 6y ago
      I personally don't have a ton of trust in polls like that (referring to the Russian one). It is a strong claim to make that Putin is more popular in Russia than Biden in the US.
- baybal2 6y ago
  Alexander, do you live in Cyprus now? I want to have meeting with you.

The choice is simple: Lukashenka or Putin. I'd pick Lukashenka, at least some form of quasi-independent Belarus is better than none at all. It is so patently obvious that no non-manipulated Belarus will be allowed to exist... Just because all country is Russian speaking - even to a bigger degree than Crimea and is wholly owned by the Russian propaganda reality tunnel.

liaukovv 6y ago
I don't believe those are the only choices.
- trhway 6y ago
  Because of the history in those places, new Belarus will immediately try to join EU and NATO. That is an option which Russia will try to prevent. As history shows there are some windows of opportunity for the things to go either way. It seems that the major escalation is coming in Donbass - Ukraine has beefed up the forces, and in particular brought in the Turkish drones which (being very successful against Russian made tanks and air defenses) provided for the recent blitzkrieg in Azerbaijan (and the very cake-in-the-face moment for Russia who supported Armenia in that war), and Russia has massed up large force on the Donbass border - which would probably result in large involvement and losses for Russia, and that may be the window of opportunity for the things to quickly change. Of course it may also be a last stand nothing to lose moment for Russia and it will just force its way in Belarus.
  - liaukovv 6y ago
    Maybe in the face of growing russian agression nato will relax it's rules.
    - lb1lf 6y ago
      -More likely, rules will toughen up. The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence; no-one wants to be forced into a shooting war - hence I expect NATO to be very wary of accepting a member which may invoke article 5 pretty much the moment the accession ceremony is over. The Ukraine would have a much easier time getting into NATO if relations with Russia were cordial; however, as the mere act of exercising their sovereignty to join an alliance of their choosing is sufficient to prevent cordial relations with Russia... The problem, obviously, being that Russia is not content to be secure within its borders, but also desires to have a say in the affairs of neighbouring countries (Which, incidentally, makes these countries feel much less secure, hence making them more eager to join alliances to improve their lot, precisely the scenario Russia wishes to avoid.) Sigh.
      - baybal2 6y ago
        > The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence There is no point of deterrence when if Ukraine is gone, and you have Russian tanks in Vienna in one week, Munich the other, and the rest of Europe in a month.
        sudosysgen 6y ago
        No, you will not. Russia cannot invade Vienna or Munich. Germany, France and Italy are each powerful enough to stall the Russian offensive. Russia will not even attempt it. Ukraine in comparison has a miserably weak military that is strongly outdated compared to Russia.
        baybal2 6y ago
        You think so? How much tanks does Germany have, and how much does Russia? I will do Googling for you. 354 vs 12000 Russia's tank force biggest problem? Having more tanks than pilots. Half of this tank fleet is in long term storage for this reason, and what's left half is in rather bad semi-written-off condition. If we let Russians to regain their breathe, it would not take them long to restore them, and regain this enormous military asset.
  - fakedang 6y ago
    EU and NATO will not let Belarus in because of a long standing agreement.
  - sudosysgen 6y ago
    The important thing about drone warfare campaigns is that they are only successful if the enemy is unwilling to challenge your air supremacy over your own territory. This is the case in Ukraine right now and in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia is unwilling, right now, to challenge all of Ukrainian airspace, and Armenia/Russia was unwilling to challenge Azerbaijani airspace. The moment this change is when the drone strategy is no longer effective. Drones only work when you have air supremacy over at least a staging area. When you do not, then there is not much to do. Also, Russia has it's own drones, which they are not using because they are in the defensive position right now. If there is a prompt for a Russian advancement or if the line becomes untenable, the drone-based strategies will collapse and the conflict will turn unless Ukraine can muster up something else. Simply put, Ukraine has no hope at all of contesting air supremacy with Russia. It's air force is incomparably worse, and drones have no anti-air capacity. But we are not there. Russia is nowhere near attempting a full-scale invasion and hasn't, they limited themselves to taking the Donbass and Crimea and defending it strictly, more or less. As for Russia in Armenia, there was not really any cake-on-the-face. Russia's policy was to stand-by unless Azerbaijan was threatening Armenia proper. Maybe Armenia could have negotiated another arrangement had their orientation been different, but as it stood Russia was unwilling to do much at all in the NK conflict. As it stands the balance of power is still overwhelmingly in the favor of Russia and it is not close.
    - adventured 6y ago
      It's strange that any of this is up for discussion. If Russia wants Ukraine, they're going to take it. Ukraine has no ability to fight with Russia. NATO isn't going to do anything directly (they'll push some weapons into Ukraine, that's it). What's going to happen is that Russia will slice Ukraine at the Dnieper River and also take all of Ukraine's Black Sea territory. That will include taking Odsesa and Kharkiv. By taking the territory south of Odesa, they'll get a large border with Moldova, and then they'll annex Moldova at some point or otherwise entirely control it as a puppet. There is no scenario where this doesn't happen. When Putin took Crimea, taking the rest of Ukraine's coastal waters was an obvious and inevitable step. The only thing left is timing, whenever Putin decides an ideal time to do it is. There's nothing the West can do to Russia at this point to stop any of this and Putin knows that. No nation in the West is going to war with Russia over these lands.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
postingawayonhn 6y ago
You do realise that a lot of people in Russia want to get rid of Putin too? And neither dictator will live forever, both are in their late 60s.
- ramtatatam 6y ago
  I'm reading about people wanting to get rid of Putin since at least 2010, the sad reality 10 years later is that he is still there...
  - viraptor 6y ago
    I don't think anyone who wants to get rid of Putin expected a change on the same day and gives up if that doesn't work. It will take time and a lot of work. (Unless they want an assassination)
    - ramtatatam 6y ago
      Nobody says that expectation is to change the dictator the same day, it's simple statement of fact, that it's much easier said than done.
- pjc50 6y ago
  > both are in their late 60s. Joe Biden (78) just replaced Donald Trump (74). Prince Phillip died at the age of 99. Putin has a long way to go on natural lifespan.
- T-A 6y ago
  35% of Russians disapprove of Putin, according to this: https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ 41% of Americans disapprove of Biden, according to this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
  - mariksolo 6y ago
    I personally don't have a ton of trust in polls like that (referring to the Russian one). It is a strong claim to make that Putin is more popular in Russia than Biden in the US.
baybal2 6y ago
Alexander, do you live in Cyprus now? I want to have meeting with you.