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I really don't understand what are these protesters trying to achieve. I like Belarus and spent years there. Hard to guess why would anyone want to shake the bo

I really don't understand what are these protesters trying to achieve. I like Belarus and spent years there. Hard to guess why would anyone want to shake the boat and risk the country getting annexed by Russia.

liaukovv 6y ago
They want to have a say in their country's future.
- anovikov 6y ago
  The choice is simple: Lukashenka or Putin. I'd pick Lukashenka, at least some form of quasi-independent Belarus is better than none at all. It is so patently obvious that no non-manipulated Belarus will be allowed to exist... Just because all country is Russian speaking - even to a bigger degree than Crimea and is wholly owned by the Russian propaganda reality tunnel.
  - liaukovv 6y ago
    I don't believe those are the only choices.
    - trhway 6y ago
      Because of the history in those places, new Belarus will immediately try to join EU and NATO. That is an option which Russia will try to prevent. As history shows there are some windows of opportunity for the things to go either way. It seems that the major escalation is coming in Donbass - Ukraine has beefed up the forces, and in particular brought in the Turkish drones which (being very successful against Russian made tanks and air defenses) provided for the recent blitzkrieg in Azerbaijan (and the very cake-in-the-face moment for Russia who supported Armenia in that war), and Russia has massed up large force on the Donbass border - which would probably result in large involvement and losses for Russia, and that may be the window of opportunity for the things to quickly change. Of course it may also be a last stand nothing to lose moment for Russia and it will just force its way in Belarus.
      - liaukovv 6y ago
        Maybe in the face of growing russian agression nato will relax it's rules.
        lb1lf 6y ago
        -More likely, rules will toughen up. The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence; no-one wants to be forced into a shooting war - hence I expect NATO to be very wary of accepting a member which may invoke article 5 pretty much the moment the accession ceremony is over. The Ukraine would have a much easier time getting into NATO if relations with Russia were cordial; however, as the mere act of exercising their sovereignty to join an alliance of their choosing is sufficient to prevent cordial relations with Russia... The problem, obviously, being that Russia is not content to be secure within its borders, but also desires to have a say in the affairs of neighbouring countries (Which, incidentally, makes these countries feel much less secure, hence making them more eager to join alliances to improve their lot, precisely the scenario Russia wishes to avoid.) Sigh.
        baybal2 6y ago
        > The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence There is no point of deterrence when if Ukraine is gone, and you have Russian tanks in Vienna in one week, Munich the other, and the rest of Europe in a month.
        sudosysgen 6y ago
        No, you will not. Russia cannot invade Vienna or Munich. Germany, France and Italy are each powerful enough to stall the Russian offensive. Russia will not even attempt it. Ukraine in comparison has a miserably weak military that is strongly outdated compared to Russia.
        baybal2 6y ago
        You think so? How much tanks does Germany have, and how much does Russia? I will do Googling for you. 354 vs 12000 Russia's tank force biggest problem? Having more tanks than pilots. Half of this tank fleet is in long term storage for this reason, and what's left half is in rather bad semi-written-off condition. If we let Russians to regain their breathe, it would not take them long to restore them, and regain this enormous military asset.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - postingawayonhn 6y ago
    You do realise that a lot of people in Russia want to get rid of Putin too? And neither dictator will live forever, both are in their late 60s.
    - ramtatatam 6y ago
      I'm reading about people wanting to get rid of Putin since at least 2010, the sad reality 10 years later is that he is still there...
      - viraptor 6y ago
        I don't think anyone who wants to get rid of Putin expected a change on the same day and gives up if that doesn't work. It will take time and a lot of work. (Unless they want an assassination)
        ramtatatam 6y ago
        Nobody says that expectation is to change the dictator the same day, it's simple statement of fact, that it's much easier said than done.
    - pjc50 6y ago
      > both are in their late 60s. Joe Biden (78) just replaced Donald Trump (74). Prince Phillip died at the age of 99. Putin has a long way to go on natural lifespan.
    - T-A 6y ago
      35% of Russians disapprove of Putin, according to this: https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ 41% of Americans disapprove of Biden, according to this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
      - mariksolo 6y ago
        I personally don't have a ton of trust in polls like that (referring to the Russian one). It is a strong claim to make that Putin is more popular in Russia than Biden in the US.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    Alexander, do you live in Cyprus now? I want to have meeting with you.
thecopy 6y ago
Fair elections.
- anovikov 6y ago
  This is a pipe dream. If someone who isn't a Putin handpicked puppet gets elected, country will be taken over. Face reality: even the Belarusian KGB people are trained in Moscow (they don't have an academy of their own, just kept things the way they were in Soviet times). It's just a facade of independence. Whatever small bits of real independence exist, are only there of Lukashenka's personal ambitions to "own" the country - with him gone, nothing at all (and not even opinion of majority of people who are Russian at heard and see their independence as a historical fluke) will hold Putin from formally annexing the country.
  - liaukovv 6y ago
    Cynicism and learned helplessness is the environment in which dictators thrive. You have to fight it.
    - inglor_cz 6y ago
      To make a point from a different perspective: some environments / countries / regions are so FUBARed by decades of bad governance that emigration is a much, much easier way out than trying to change the system from within and possibly risking prison, beating to death, serious consequences for your family etc. Cynicism and learned helplessness are just a description of what people actually live in there. Of course, then you have zombie regimes holding to power forever, because people who would challenge them most effectively are outside the country. Iran, Russia etc. Navalny returned to Russia precisely because he did not want to be seen as yet another emigree who utters advice from abroad. He will pay with his life for that courage and other people will think twice before becoming the next anti-regime icons. Authoritarian states are very good at intimidating people. What they cannot usually control is the economy, that is a major weakness in their armor. That is one of the reason why China concentrates so much on economic development.
  - 6y ago
estaseuropano 6y ago
that's fatalism, not realism. Change is possible still, but admittedly much momentum and a big chance currently seems lost.
LatteLazy 6y ago
Young people have been sold the promise that working hard and getting educated means they can have a nice life. Now that either needs to be fulfilled (cutting corruption, upsetting Russia etc). Or the rest of the country needs to admit it was a lie and watch all the young, educated, hard working people leave for the west. This isn't specific to Belarus, only the local details (democracy, Russia etc) differentiate it from say Hong Kong or brexit Britian really.
lampe3 6y ago
Thats russian/lukaschenko propaganda...

liaukovv 6y ago

They want to have a say in their country's future.

anovikov 6y ago
The choice is simple: Lukashenka or Putin. I'd pick Lukashenka, at least some form of quasi-independent Belarus is better than none at all. It is so patently obvious that no non-manipulated Belarus will be allowed to exist... Just because all country is Russian speaking - even to a bigger degree than Crimea and is wholly owned by the Russian propaganda reality tunnel.
- liaukovv 6y ago
  I don't believe those are the only choices.
  - trhway 6y ago
    Because of the history in those places, new Belarus will immediately try to join EU and NATO. That is an option which Russia will try to prevent. As history shows there are some windows of opportunity for the things to go either way. It seems that the major escalation is coming in Donbass - Ukraine has beefed up the forces, and in particular brought in the Turkish drones which (being very successful against Russian made tanks and air defenses) provided for the recent blitzkrieg in Azerbaijan (and the very cake-in-the-face moment for Russia who supported Armenia in that war), and Russia has massed up large force on the Donbass border - which would probably result in large involvement and losses for Russia, and that may be the window of opportunity for the things to quickly change. Of course it may also be a last stand nothing to lose moment for Russia and it will just force its way in Belarus.
    - liaukovv 6y ago
      Maybe in the face of growing russian agression nato will relax it's rules.
      - lb1lf 6y ago
        -More likely, rules will toughen up. The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence; no-one wants to be forced into a shooting war - hence I expect NATO to be very wary of accepting a member which may invoke article 5 pretty much the moment the accession ceremony is over. The Ukraine would have a much easier time getting into NATO if relations with Russia were cordial; however, as the mere act of exercising their sovereignty to join an alliance of their choosing is sufficient to prevent cordial relations with Russia... The problem, obviously, being that Russia is not content to be secure within its borders, but also desires to have a say in the affairs of neighbouring countries (Which, incidentally, makes these countries feel much less secure, hence making them more eager to join alliances to improve their lot, precisely the scenario Russia wishes to avoid.) Sigh.
        baybal2 6y ago
        > The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence There is no point of deterrence when if Ukraine is gone, and you have Russian tanks in Vienna in one week, Munich the other, and the rest of Europe in a month.
        sudosysgen 6y ago
        No, you will not. Russia cannot invade Vienna or Munich. Germany, France and Italy are each powerful enough to stall the Russian offensive. Russia will not even attempt it. Ukraine in comparison has a miserably weak military that is strongly outdated compared to Russia.
        baybal2 6y ago
        You think so? How much tanks does Germany have, and how much does Russia? I will do Googling for you. 354 vs 12000 Russia's tank force biggest problem? Having more tanks than pilots. Half of this tank fleet is in long term storage for this reason, and what's left half is in rather bad semi-written-off condition. If we let Russians to regain their breathe, it would not take them long to restore them, and regain this enormous military asset.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- postingawayonhn 6y ago
  You do realise that a lot of people in Russia want to get rid of Putin too? And neither dictator will live forever, both are in their late 60s.
  - ramtatatam 6y ago
    I'm reading about people wanting to get rid of Putin since at least 2010, the sad reality 10 years later is that he is still there...
    - viraptor 6y ago
      I don't think anyone who wants to get rid of Putin expected a change on the same day and gives up if that doesn't work. It will take time and a lot of work. (Unless they want an assassination)
      - ramtatatam 6y ago
        Nobody says that expectation is to change the dictator the same day, it's simple statement of fact, that it's much easier said than done.
  - pjc50 6y ago
    > both are in their late 60s. Joe Biden (78) just replaced Donald Trump (74). Prince Phillip died at the age of 99. Putin has a long way to go on natural lifespan.
  - T-A 6y ago
    35% of Russians disapprove of Putin, according to this: https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/ 41% of Americans disapprove of Biden, according to this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
    - mariksolo 6y ago
      I personally don't have a ton of trust in polls like that (referring to the Russian one). It is a strong claim to make that Putin is more popular in Russia than Biden in the US.
- baybal2 6y ago
  Alexander, do you live in Cyprus now? I want to have meeting with you.

thecopy 6y ago

Fair elections.

anovikov 6y ago
This is a pipe dream. If someone who isn't a Putin handpicked puppet gets elected, country will be taken over. Face reality: even the Belarusian KGB people are trained in Moscow (they don't have an academy of their own, just kept things the way they were in Soviet times). It's just a facade of independence. Whatever small bits of real independence exist, are only there of Lukashenka's personal ambitions to "own" the country - with him gone, nothing at all (and not even opinion of majority of people who are Russian at heard and see their independence as a historical fluke) will hold Putin from formally annexing the country.
- liaukovv 6y ago
  Cynicism and learned helplessness is the environment in which dictators thrive. You have to fight it.
  - inglor_cz 6y ago
    To make a point from a different perspective: some environments / countries / regions are so FUBARed by decades of bad governance that emigration is a much, much easier way out than trying to change the system from within and possibly risking prison, beating to death, serious consequences for your family etc. Cynicism and learned helplessness are just a description of what people actually live in there. Of course, then you have zombie regimes holding to power forever, because people who would challenge them most effectively are outside the country. Iran, Russia etc. Navalny returned to Russia precisely because he did not want to be seen as yet another emigree who utters advice from abroad. He will pay with his life for that courage and other people will think twice before becoming the next anti-regime icons. Authoritarian states are very good at intimidating people. What they cannot usually control is the economy, that is a major weakness in their armor. That is one of the reason why China concentrates so much on economic development.
- 6y ago

estaseuropano 6y ago

that's fatalism, not realism. Change is possible still, but admittedly much momentum and a big chance currently seems lost.

LatteLazy 6y ago

Young people have been sold the promise that working hard and getting educated means they can have a nice life. Now that either needs to be fulfilled (cutting corruption, upsetting Russia etc). Or the rest of the country needs to admit it was a lie and watch all the young, educated, hard working people leave for the west. This isn't specific to Belarus, only the local details (democracy, Russia etc) differentiate it from say Hong Kong or brexit Britian really.

lampe3 6y ago

Thats russian/lukaschenko propaganda...