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I’m sure the Tesla crowd will jump in to say this is driver error because Tesla has a disclaimer that the feature requires active driver supervision, but the pr
by camjohnson26 6y ago
I’m sure the Tesla crowd will jump in to say this is driver error because Tesla has a disclaimer that the feature requires active driver supervision, but the problem has always been the marketing that causes users to over estimate the system’s capabilities. Musk says that autopilot is safer than human driven miles, but this is apples and oranges since the human driven miles include city driving and all models of car, which have much higher rates of accidents than luxury cars like Teslas.
Full Self Driving’s marketing has been criminal. Tesla is trying to solve self driving without lidar, which it’s competitors are using. Waymo is way ahead of Tesla, but they create the illusion of being ahead by releasing features that are clearly extremely dangerous.
This video is a little over the top but highlights the abuses of FSD marketing better than anything else I’ve seen:
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1375289872756273152?s=20 https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/13752898727562731...
- ajross 6y agoI don't see how autopilot was involved here. This was a tiny cul de sac (the address is in the article). Autopilot simply won't achieve the kind of speeds needed to cause that collision. Frankly I agree with other posters here that the most likely scenario is that there was a human driver in the seemingly-undamaged drivers' seat who fled the scene. Absent that, you'd have to play games with launch mode or some kind of device to press the accellerator. You just can't do this with autopilot as I see it.
- camjohnson26 6y agoIf so the investigators on the scene are wrong, from the article: “Herman said authorities believe no one else was in the car and that it burst into flames immediately. He said it he believes it wasn’t being driven by a human. Harris County Constable Precinct 4 deputies said the vehicle was traveling at a high speed when it failed to negotiate a cul-de-sac turn, ran off the road and hit the tree.”
- ajross 6y agoAgain, that scenario (taking a high speed turn in a cul-de-sac) just doesn't correspond to any known accessible autopilot behavior. Given the choice between "initial investigation was wrong" and "heretofore unseen high speed residential driving by autopilot" (also "non-autopilot driving from passenger seat" probably needs to be in the list), I know which way Occam points. To be glib: if you could get the car to drive itself at 60mph+ on a residential street, that shit would be all over youtube.
- camjohnson26 6y agoI agree it doesn’t look like there’s much ramp up, I’d want to know why the people actually there sound so confident there was no 3rd party. Here’s the approximate location of the crash: https://goo.gl/maps/4Rk3DPdtnnRQuGd69 https://goo.gl/maps/4Rk3DPdtnnRQuGd69
- camjohnson26 6y agoThe WSJ article says they are almost 99.9% sure there was no driver. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fatal-tesla-crash-in-texas-believed-to-be-driverless-11618766363 https://www.wsj.com/articles/fatal-tesla-crash-in-texas-beli...
- eurasiantiger 6y agoThey are pulling that number out of someone’s ass.
- wott 6y ago> https://goo.gl/maps/4Rk3DPdtnnRQuGd69 https://goo.gl/maps/4Rk3DPdtnnRQuGd69 Do they hold contests for the most complicated roof building, in this area?
- tyingq 6y ago"Village Of Carlton Woods neighborhood is located in SPRING (77382 zip code) in MONTGOMERY county. Woodlands - Village Of Carlton Woods has 437 single family properties with a median build year of 2006 and a median size of 6,371 Sqft., these home values range between $789 - $3045 K" https://www.har.com/pricetrends/woodlands---village-of-carlton-woods-realestate/5362 https://www.har.com/pricetrends/woodlands---village-of-carlt... So, yes, sort of.
- YeGoblynQueenne 6y ago>> Frankly I agree with other posters here that the most likely scenario is that there was a human driver in the seemingly-undamaged drivers' seat who fled the scene. Do we really need to imagine a third person, who left leaving behind no evidence of his or her existence, to explain this accident?
- vmception 6y agoFire can burn away obvious and forensic evidence
- YeGoblynQueenne 6y agoIf I understand correctly the reason the OP has to suspect a third person in the driver's seat is because the driver's seat appeared undamaged?
- camjohnson26 6y agoI don’t see anything in that photo that looks undamaged.
- YeGoblynQueenne 6y agoTo be honest, I don't either, but if I understand correctly the OP thinks there must have been a third person because the driver's seat was "seemingly undamaged".
- FriendlyNormie 6y agoAll Teslas have a backdoor enabling the ability to remotely take over the car and intentionally crash it. Obviously this was a test of that feature. Everyone who didn’t see this coming is a moron.
- shkkmo 6y agoWe need a human driver or some other mechanism for the car to have propelled itself into the tree. A human driver seems the most likely solution but others are of course possible.
- tomjakubowski 6y ago"Harris County Precinct 4 Constable Mark Herman told ABC News the two men who were found dead inside the car had dropped off their wives at a nearby home and told them they were going to take the 2019 Tesla S class for a test ride. "The man, ages 59 and 69, had been talking about the features on the car before they left." https://www.yahoo.com/gma/investigators-looking-explosive-tesla-car-213300412.html https://www.yahoo.com/gma/investigators-looking-explosive-te...
- zby 6y agoDoesn't Tesla record everything? I imagine there should be records somewhere that would resolve such questions.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- FartyMcFarter 6y agoYou're saying that Autopilot cannot be blamed for this failure, because you take it as an axiom that Autopilot doesn't cause this kind of failure? That's just an empty tautology. Failures are failures, you can't just assume they don't happen on such a complex system.
- ajross 6y agoAutopilot has not been observed to behave like this. That's not an "axiom", it's "evidence". I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying that the data we have suggests alternatives as more likely.
- gamblor956 6y agoFrom the article: KPRC 2 reporter Deven Clarke spoke to one man’s brother-in-law who said he was taking the car out for a spin with his best friend, so there were just two in the vehicle. It happened entirely within the culdesac, and there were multiple witnesses. Tesla Autopilot has killed two more people. (The entire rest of the self driving industry combined 1 pedestrian fatality at night).
- Geee 6y agoWow, based on that video it seems that the oil industry backed short sellers are getting pretty desperate.
- camjohnson26 6y agoName one short seller who has been backed by the oil industry. Tesla is worth 3 Exxons, 3 Chevrons, or 10 BPs. This is a tired excuse that gets the motivations of short sellers backward. They do not short a company and then find damaging information, they find damaging information and then short the company. None of that excuses Tesla’s complete disregard for human life, particularly here by not having the advanced driver monitoring capabilities that their competitors have and instead relying on easily bypassed measures like steering wheel torque that will clearly lead to predictable abuse. Elon Musk has never condemned the social media stunts where people recklessly test self driving by getting out of the driver’s seat, and even commented on the porn video without condemning the behavior it encourages.
- Geee 6y agoDid you see that video? It's clearly a propaganda video with various obvious lies, biases and cherry-picking. It contains false statements like "Elon musk is not an engineer, he is a scam artist". It's very clearly produced by oil industry or someone who benefits from delaying electric cars. It's professionally made to have an emotional effect. It's very similar in style to all those anti-vax propaganda videos.
- dang 6y ago"Eschew flamebait. Avoid unrelated controversies and generic tangents." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- Geee 6y agoI don't agree. It's clearly a propaganda video and I just wanted to point it out.
- Balgair 6y agoAside: >Musk says that autopilot is safer than human driven miles Is there a breakdown for income with road safety? The best I could find is that poorer countries have higher road deaths / km, but I couldn't find any data on road safety within a country.
- camjohnson26 6y agoHere’s a report linking vehicle age to accident outcome and showing a correlation, I would assume higher incomes are associated with newer vehicles. I only took a quick look so not sure if they compare likelihood of an accident with vehicle age. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811825 https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...
- joezydeco 6y agoI’m sure the Tesla crowd will jump in to say this is driver error Did I read the parent post incorrectly? There was no driver in the seat.
- shawabawa3 6y agoThey might have been using the orange hack to make Tesla think someone was driving (orange wedged in the steering wheel causes enough weight/pressure for the sensor to think it's a hand)
- jgwil2 6y agoThat would be the error. You're supposed to be seated in the driver's seat and alert.
- gugagore 6y agoSuppose they had survived and killed someone else. I think the law would find at least one of them to be the driver. That's the notion of driver that is meant by "driver error". e.g. the person who started the car.
- FireBeyond 6y agoIt's a little awkward when as of today (and has been for years), Tesla on its website has wording around FSD saying "The driver is only in the seat for legal purposes. The vehicle doesn't require it."
- totalZero 6y ago"The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions."[0] "Currently neither Autopilot nor FSD Capability is an autonomous system, and currently no comprising feature, whether singularly or collectively, is autonomous or makes our vehicles autonomous"[1] [0] https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot [1] p30 of https://www.plainsite.org/documents/242a2g/california-dmv-tesla-robotaxi--fsd-emails/ https://www.plainsite.org/documents/242a2g/california-dmv-te...
- strictnein 6y ago> I’m sure the Tesla crowd will jump in to say this is driver error There was literally no one in the driver seat.
- Ecstatify 6y agoThe CEO of Waymo just resigned so I doubt they’re way ahead.
- davidcbc 6y agoTesla is only ahead on body count.
- andyxor 6y agonot sure why you're being downvoted. Autopilot is not an AI but marketed as such, Tesla carries full responsibility for these deaths as well as false and misleading advertising. Waymo may not be much further away in terms of technology, but at least they don't broadcast irresponsible claims as loud as Tesla does.
- FireBeyond 6y ago> Tesla has a disclaimer that the feature requires active driver supervision Tesla has also had, since 2017, a prominent page on the website that says "The driver is only in the seat for legal purposes. The vehicle doesn't need it." (Ironic, given the circumstances of this accident).
- avs733 6y agoIt's really funny how their marketing and legal departments seem to say conflicting things almost as a prank.
- geenew 6y agoSource?
- FireBeyond 6y agohttps://www.tesla.com/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/autopilot The actual wording: > The person in the driver's seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself. although it looks like they may have yanked that as of today. However, plenty of sources: https://www.tesla.com/videos/autopilot-self-driving-hardware-neighborhood-long?redirect=no https://www.tesla.com/videos/autopilot-self-driving-hardware... https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/mth6ti/the_person_in_the_drivers_seat_is_only_there_for/ https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/mth6ti/the_perso... https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/dtjzm9/the_person_in_the_drivers_seat_is_only_there_for/ https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/dtjzm9/the_perso...
- geenew 6y agoThanks. It’s unnerving that such a dangerously misleading statement can persist.
- jcranmer 6y agoI went looking through the Wayback Machine's archive of that page to see if I could find a version of the text with those exact words. In none of the archives could I find a version; the biggest change to the text is in the description of regulatory status. Prior to ~March 2019, the text here used to read: > Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction. It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year. (Hilariously, the "details of which will be released next year" was retained on the page for three years before being dropped.) The current text instead makes it more clear (although not by much) that the actual full-self driving capability of the car doesn't actually exist yet. While those exact words may not be present in the text, the general whiplash theme of "this car can 100% drive itself!" and "you are totally required to supervise the car at all times, it cannot drive itself" was and is still present.
- austenallred 6y agoHave you ever driven a Tesla with full self driving? If you engage self driving the car pops up with a giant alert to keep your hands on the wheel and the car doesn’t allow you to use full self driving unless you wiggle the steering wheel every few minutes. There is no mystery as to what is safe. The driver... wasn’t in the seat. Yes I would say that’s driver error. Or maybe... lack of driver error.
- cma 6y agoThey should probably remove the text off their website that says: > The person in the driver's seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself. That probably gives some owners the impression that the driver is only a legal formality and climbing into the back seat is a safe stunt to pull.
- austenallred 6y agoWhere does it say that?
- cma 6y agoIt is the opening text of the video here: https://www.tesla.com/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/autopilot