6 ms·

OK I will bite. > As for Bitcoin. Who cares if it is a bubble or a ponzi? People make money and gambling is a part of human nature. People who want to use it

OK I will bite. > As for Bitcoin. Who cares if it is a bubble or a ponzi? People make money and gambling is a part of human nature. People who want to use it as a currency and people preferring to avoid losing their investment in a dumb bubbles. (it is more OK if it is a dumb gambling with what someone is considering as entertainment funds, but nearly noone is doing that)

McScroogy 6y ago
Could you point me to an alternative investment that can not lose its value, please?
- dmichulke 6y ago
  Gold maybe. But gold is not a currency either, so hmmm. In all earnest, I wonder when the mainstream will realize that in a digital world the store of value and a currency can be different because they are easily interchangeable. Just like bonds or gold for long term investment (store of value) and dollar (currency).
  - petre 6y ago
    Good luck transporting and securing larger quantities of gold and also exchanging it for money. One basically has to declare any quantity in excess of six ounces / 170 grams of gold because it exceeds 10k US dollars / euros.
    - chii 6y ago
      what's wrong with declaring? It's not like it'd be taken from you...unless you illegitimately obtained it.
      - faffe 6y ago
        It can via tax...
      - McScroogy 6y ago
        If there is a wealth tax, as is being discussed in many places, it could be taken from you.
    - iso1631 6y ago
      If you carry your bitcoin wallet with you do you need to declare that?
  - baq 6y ago
    paper gold trades like a currency, bitcoin trades like a commodity. gold - the real thing - i guess you should have some, but this is more like insurance than asset, don't ever sell unless the world is ending stuff.
- matkoniecz 6y ago
  There is not such thing. Every single thing can lose its value. In addition: Real estate can be bombed in a war or confiscated[0] and is not mobile for obvious reasons[1]. Gold can be stolen, confiscated - and it happened already more than once. Companies can go bankrupt. Items - either productive like machinery or various stores of value like art are not immune. Cash/bank accounts - well, money printing will get you here. Cryptocurrency - ridiculously volatile, many exciting dangers, can be stolen remotely with no recourse. You are looking for an unicorn. [0] For "real estate will never go down in value" fans: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Destroyed_Warsaw,_capital_of_Poland,_January_1945_-_version_2.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Destroyed_Warsaw,_capital... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:German_Brennkommando-firing_Warsaw_1944.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:German_Brennkommando-firi... [1] Fun fact: Polish words for real estate is "nieruchomości", "nonmovables"
  - McScroogy 6y ago
    I thought as much. I suppose some things are riskier than others, but at the moment I really don't know which ones.
    - baq 6y ago
      risk always changes. you should be constantly reviewing and updating your exposure according to your risk assessments. (for some, this is daily; for others, once a year may be enough.) if you don't want to do the work - understandable, since it's an impossible amount - you might want to start from looking at the bond market. this is what they get paid for. (not saying that you should be buying bonds - but look at relative price of bonds)
  - chewz 6y ago
    > [0] For "real estate will never go down in value" fans: You realise that these properties in the picture (Plac Defilad right in the centre of Warsaw) are worth a lot nowadays. And descendants of the original owners get compensated (the land had been confiscated after WW2 by communist government). So I would rather say that real estate could be illiquid with temporarily depressed prices occasionally. https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plik:Panorama_ul._Emilii_Plater_w_Warszawie_radek_ko%C5%82akowski.jpg https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plik:Panorama_ul._Emilii_Plate...
- f6v 6y ago
  Education.
  - 13of40 6y ago
    I had a friend who was a lawyer in South Africa before their political upheaval. Once his career of choice ceased to exist, he ended up becoming a software tester, then an IT guy at a bank.
throwaway4good 6y ago
There are a number of Bitcoin variations out there (Bitcoin Cash and BSV) which are tuned in manner that gives faster and cheaper transactions. None of them seem to have caught the eye of investors. My interpretation is that investors like their ponzi and don't really care about whether the technology is useful. I could try and scold them but I don't think it works, therefore I choose just to accept them as they are and see their beauty in their own right. In the money as credit model, the money supply expands and subtracts with economic activity. And the best suited money have price stability so the market of credit can focus "pricing" risk correctly. This model of money could be supported by some kind of cryptocurrency, however right now the investors don't seem to have an appetite for sponsoring that sort of thing.
- grey-area 6y ago
  You are describing speculation, not investment, and yes there is a difference, though people often lose sight of that during bubbles when the price is all that matters.
  - throwaway4good 6y ago
    Speculator, investor ... I don't want to pass judgement. I listen what ARK Invest says, I think they are smart people, but I also think they overshoot.
    - grey-area 6y ago
      Speculator, investor ... I don't want to pass judgement QED
- rualca 6y ago
  > None of them seem to have caught the eye of investors. That's the problem with this doublespeak, where people intentionally fool themselves into cognitive dissonance. The whole point of currency is not investment. It's the exact opposite of investment. Currency is intended to have stable value over time, because it's whole point is to serve as a unit of account, store value, and serve as a medium to exchange value in an economy. By it's very definition "investing" implies the expectation of profit. Think about it for a second: how can something intended to have a stable value be considered apt for speculation?
PicassoCTs 6y ago
Honest, successor crypto-currencies, who work for their money will have to fight the fallout once the scheme collapses and people who lost everything demand government to regulate "rogue" currencies? Distrust will also prevent a whole generation of investors to invest again?
- iso1631 6y ago
  > Distrust will also prevent a whole generation of investors to invest again My parents lost a lot in the 2000 crash, so were spared from the 2008 crash. Between those two I decided buying shares was a mugs game (Nasdaq was 4000-5000 before crashing to 1300 back in 2000. It recovered to 2500 by 2008 before crashing back to 1500. It's now 14,000 - massive gains in the last 10 years I've missed out on because of not trusting. If you'd have bought $1k of Nasdaq and 1k of Bitcoin 5 years ago, you'd have $3k from nasdaq - an amazing return. I can sort of see why the nasdaq is so high though. Crypto though? That same $1k would mean you'd have $137k from bitcoin. If that's sustainable I don't know what unsustainable is. DOGE? You'd be a millionaire. But the political decisions of the economy seem to be built around driving these things up. It makes the UK house price boom of the 90s and 00s look tame - 500% in 25 years? A measly 6% roi? 25% per year gains on stocks, 170% per year on bitcoin? 300% per year on DOGE? In 2018 people were saying about tulipmania with bitcoin and how the price would collapse. It did. $1k invested at the height of the bubble in 2017/18 when it reached $20k - 20 times what it was earlier in the year, was soon worth just $150. It would now be worth $3k, 45% per year roi from investing at the worst possible time Putting a measly $10 a month into bitcoin every month for the last 5 years would have cost $600 and left you with $14,620 today. The market can remain retarded longer than I can remain solvent. The only thing I've learnt waiting for things to crash is that I'm an idiot, and people who fall for hype are rich.
serial_dev 6y ago
I often hear: investment is good, gambling is dumb, speculation is risky. In my opinion, in most people's dictionary, these things describe the same things and when we use these words, there is no good, measurable way to classify them, we just act on our instincts, yet when we use words like investment, we feel safe and clever. Good point about the currency part, I don't think BTC is going to be a good currency, it's expensive, slow, traceable, public.

McScroogy 6y ago

Could you point me to an alternative investment that can not lose its value, please?

dmichulke 6y ago
Gold maybe. But gold is not a currency either, so hmmm. In all earnest, I wonder when the mainstream will realize that in a digital world the store of value and a currency can be different because they are easily interchangeable. Just like bonds or gold for long term investment (store of value) and dollar (currency).
- petre 6y ago
  Good luck transporting and securing larger quantities of gold and also exchanging it for money. One basically has to declare any quantity in excess of six ounces / 170 grams of gold because it exceeds 10k US dollars / euros.
  - chii 6y ago
    what's wrong with declaring? It's not like it'd be taken from you...unless you illegitimately obtained it.
    - faffe 6y ago
      It can via tax...
    - McScroogy 6y ago
      If there is a wealth tax, as is being discussed in many places, it could be taken from you.
  - iso1631 6y ago
    If you carry your bitcoin wallet with you do you need to declare that?
- baq 6y ago
  paper gold trades like a currency, bitcoin trades like a commodity. gold - the real thing - i guess you should have some, but this is more like insurance than asset, don't ever sell unless the world is ending stuff.
matkoniecz 6y ago
There is not such thing. Every single thing can lose its value. In addition: Real estate can be bombed in a war or confiscated[0] and is not mobile for obvious reasons[1]. Gold can be stolen, confiscated - and it happened already more than once. Companies can go bankrupt. Items - either productive like machinery or various stores of value like art are not immune. Cash/bank accounts - well, money printing will get you here. Cryptocurrency - ridiculously volatile, many exciting dangers, can be stolen remotely with no recourse. You are looking for an unicorn. [0] For "real estate will never go down in value" fans: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Destroyed_Warsaw,_capital_of_Poland,_January_1945_-_version_2.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Destroyed_Warsaw,_capital... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:German_Brennkommando-firing_Warsaw_1944.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:German_Brennkommando-firi... [1] Fun fact: Polish words for real estate is "nieruchomości", "nonmovables"
- McScroogy 6y ago
  I thought as much. I suppose some things are riskier than others, but at the moment I really don't know which ones.
  - baq 6y ago
    risk always changes. you should be constantly reviewing and updating your exposure according to your risk assessments. (for some, this is daily; for others, once a year may be enough.) if you don't want to do the work - understandable, since it's an impossible amount - you might want to start from looking at the bond market. this is what they get paid for. (not saying that you should be buying bonds - but look at relative price of bonds)
- chewz 6y ago
  > [0] For "real estate will never go down in value" fans: You realise that these properties in the picture (Plac Defilad right in the centre of Warsaw) are worth a lot nowadays. And descendants of the original owners get compensated (the land had been confiscated after WW2 by communist government). So I would rather say that real estate could be illiquid with temporarily depressed prices occasionally. https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plik:Panorama_ul._Emilii_Plater_w_Warszawie_radek_ko%C5%82akowski.jpg https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plik:Panorama_ul._Emilii_Plate...
f6v 6y ago
Education.
- 13of40 6y ago
  I had a friend who was a lawyer in South Africa before their political upheaval. Once his career of choice ceased to exist, he ended up becoming a software tester, then an IT guy at a bank.

throwaway4good 6y ago

There are a number of Bitcoin variations out there (Bitcoin Cash and BSV) which are tuned in manner that gives faster and cheaper transactions. None of them seem to have caught the eye of investors. My interpretation is that investors like their ponzi and don't really care about whether the technology is useful. I could try and scold them but I don't think it works, therefore I choose just to accept them as they are and see their beauty in their own right. In the money as credit model, the money supply expands and subtracts with economic activity. And the best suited money have price stability so the market of credit can focus "pricing" risk correctly. This model of money could be supported by some kind of cryptocurrency, however right now the investors don't seem to have an appetite for sponsoring that sort of thing.

grey-area 6y ago
You are describing speculation, not investment, and yes there is a difference, though people often lose sight of that during bubbles when the price is all that matters.
- throwaway4good 6y ago
  Speculator, investor ... I don't want to pass judgement. I listen what ARK Invest says, I think they are smart people, but I also think they overshoot.
  - grey-area 6y ago
    Speculator, investor ... I don't want to pass judgement QED
rualca 6y ago
> None of them seem to have caught the eye of investors. That's the problem with this doublespeak, where people intentionally fool themselves into cognitive dissonance. The whole point of currency is not investment. It's the exact opposite of investment. Currency is intended to have stable value over time, because it's whole point is to serve as a unit of account, store value, and serve as a medium to exchange value in an economy. By it's very definition "investing" implies the expectation of profit. Think about it for a second: how can something intended to have a stable value be considered apt for speculation?

PicassoCTs 6y ago

Honest, successor crypto-currencies, who work for their money will have to fight the fallout once the scheme collapses and people who lost everything demand government to regulate "rogue" currencies? Distrust will also prevent a whole generation of investors to invest again?

iso1631 6y ago
> Distrust will also prevent a whole generation of investors to invest again My parents lost a lot in the 2000 crash, so were spared from the 2008 crash. Between those two I decided buying shares was a mugs game (Nasdaq was 4000-5000 before crashing to 1300 back in 2000. It recovered to 2500 by 2008 before crashing back to 1500. It's now 14,000 - massive gains in the last 10 years I've missed out on because of not trusting. If you'd have bought $1k of Nasdaq and 1k of Bitcoin 5 years ago, you'd have $3k from nasdaq - an amazing return. I can sort of see why the nasdaq is so high though. Crypto though? That same $1k would mean you'd have $137k from bitcoin. If that's sustainable I don't know what unsustainable is. DOGE? You'd be a millionaire. But the political decisions of the economy seem to be built around driving these things up. It makes the UK house price boom of the 90s and 00s look tame - 500% in 25 years? A measly 6% roi? 25% per year gains on stocks, 170% per year on bitcoin? 300% per year on DOGE? In 2018 people were saying about tulipmania with bitcoin and how the price would collapse. It did. $1k invested at the height of the bubble in 2017/18 when it reached $20k - 20 times what it was earlier in the year, was soon worth just $150. It would now be worth $3k, 45% per year roi from investing at the worst possible time Putting a measly $10 a month into bitcoin every month for the last 5 years would have cost $600 and left you with $14,620 today. The market can remain retarded longer than I can remain solvent. The only thing I've learnt waiting for things to crash is that I'm an idiot, and people who fall for hype are rich.

serial_dev 6y ago

I often hear: investment is good, gambling is dumb, speculation is risky. In my opinion, in most people's dictionary, these things describe the same things and when we use these words, there is no good, measurable way to classify them, we just act on our instincts, yet when we use words like investment, we feel safe and clever. Good point about the currency part, I don't think BTC is going to be a good currency, it's expensive, slow, traceable, public.