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Doesn't something feel wrong about the post 2008 "boom"? Theoretically the economy is doing great but you have constant social upheaval, a generation where many

Doesn't something feel wrong about the post 2008 "boom"? Theoretically the economy is doing great but you have constant social upheaval, a generation where many are still living with their parents, and the need for constant central bank stimulus in the form of cheap credit. I sometimes wonder if we've managed to mask the real state of the economy by pumping the metrics to make it look like it's fine.

calvano915 6y ago
> I sometimes wonder if we've managed to mask the real state of the economy by pumping the metrics to make it look like it's fine. This concept extrapolates widely in our personal and professional lives. The internet and cell phones were probably the biggest real pieces of innovation in my lifetime (mid thirties). Everything else is just fluffed up rehashes of relics or in very early stages of something radically new. I just read an article proposing genomics as the next big thing to really change the course of medicine and humanity, and I'm inclined to agree but do not see what the timeline of the tipping point will be. Everywhere else I look I just see more stagnation, short term thinking/goals, and continuation of status quo...with touches of regression throughout.
- throwaway_4253 6y ago
  I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss medicine; we all just witnessed mRNA paying off its research tab, so it would seem. CRISPR is at the beginning of its journey, but monoclonal antibodies are practically miraculous to people with a lot of autoimmune conditions. I have one which almost certainly would have blinded me 30 years ago. Today I can get an (admittedly enormously expensive, we still have progress to make there) IV infusion every couple of months which has practically no side effects and effectively forces the disease into remission. This drug (Remicade) wasn't around when I was born, and I'm only 39.
tim333 6y ago
Things are kind of distorted from what would be fair. The near zero interest rates have lead to high property prices which has made owners rich and renters poor in a rather arbitrary manner. It's like the governments are trying to control a lot of variables with only a couple of levers.
- imtringued 6y ago
  A lot of the Fed problems are related to the fact that it doesn't have direct control over the economy and the help (fiscal stimulus) that is most needed can only be done by the US government.
roenxi 6y ago
Add to that the collapse in wage growth and the conspicuous difference in the rate of improvement in Asia vs in America. The World Bank says [0] the US GDP per capita has more than doubled since 1996. In real terms. Computers have been a big boost, but it seems a tough sell that the US population has actually seen a real doubling in that time. That is saying a dude with a house in 1996 is a dude with 2 houses now. Is that arguably true? Where is the stuff? [0] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location...
- RugnirViking 6y ago
  > Is that arguably true? Where is the stuff? In the hands of increasingly few people, namely tech billionaires. Amazon for example is worth more than all but 18 of the entire world's sovereign nations' respective GDP. The economy has grown tremendously, in measurable terms, but that growth has almost exclusively gone to the 0.1%
  - toss1 6y ago
    True And also much of the 'stuff' is here, or converted to services. 25 yrs ago, approx no one had 55"+ tvs, internet connection was a minority, and media eas collections of CDs/Videotapes. Now 'net connections are near-universal, and it is all streaming. Cell phones were just beginning & expensive, now everyone has a powerful computer in their pocket. We don't have two houses, but the ones we have are worth twice as much. Cars are much better developed than 2 decades ago, snd we'll soon have ubiquitous electric cars... All of it needs to be more evenly spread. Just look at the charts of portions of funds going to labor vs capital.
    - RugnirViking 6y ago
      Those things became cheaper to produce because of technological advancement, largely developed by people who did not benefit from this rise in production. They do not represent wealth in any meaningful sense. Wealth is economic power, and 55" TVs dont help you start a buisness or pay a downpayment for a mortgage. Internet connection may once have served as some measure of economic power, but its no coincidence that those with the power currently are doing everything they can to restrict the rights of normal people to create using it. Imo, its really about things that give you more agency over your own life and the world. Cars are good, they represent a great increase in our ability to travel and make decisions for ourselves. > We don't have two houses, but the ones we have are worth twice as much. This is largely a wealth transfer to the elderly. Among under 40s, home ownership has fallen consistently since the 1990s, with only a brief increase in 2001-2005.
sauwan 6y ago
Many economists argue that the 2008 stimulus didn't do enough, and that where it did provide stimulus it was applied at the wrong places (towards the top rather than the bottom). That's why we're seeing this response to the current situation.
- api 6y ago
  If you are going to do stimulus, the way we are doing it now is better. Even better still would be to drop money from helicopters. There's an argument to be made that we have done too much over the past ~10 years and are risking significant inflation, but that's a separate argument and it's hard to say what else we could have done that would have been better. Inflationary blowoff is usually less painful than deflationary depression, but neither is good. Policy is often an exercise in choosing the least awful option.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    I agree, ineffective policies just cause unintended consequences. If the Fed or us government had done its job we wouldn't have to print so much money in the first place.
h2odragon 6y ago
Empty houses everywhere since 2008. Someone has those booked at "full value" as assets, but they're gonna take money to remove before any use of the site can be made; they have negative value.
mbil 6y ago
Lyn Alden explored this idea in her January newsletter, titled "The Hindsight Depression"[0]. > the US and much of the rest of the world have already been in a mild depression for the past 12 years, ever since the 2008 global financial crisis. It’s just not as obvious as the 1930s depression, because higher levels of technology and anti-deflationary monetary policy disguised it in a nominal sense. [0] https://www.lynalden.com/january-2021-newsletter/ https://www.lynalden.com/january-2021-newsletter/

calvano915 6y ago

> I sometimes wonder if we've managed to mask the real state of the economy by pumping the metrics to make it look like it's fine. This concept extrapolates widely in our personal and professional lives. The internet and cell phones were probably the biggest real pieces of innovation in my lifetime (mid thirties). Everything else is just fluffed up rehashes of relics or in very early stages of something radically new. I just read an article proposing genomics as the next big thing to really change the course of medicine and humanity, and I'm inclined to agree but do not see what the timeline of the tipping point will be. Everywhere else I look I just see more stagnation, short term thinking/goals, and continuation of status quo...with touches of regression throughout.

throwaway_4253 6y ago
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss medicine; we all just witnessed mRNA paying off its research tab, so it would seem. CRISPR is at the beginning of its journey, but monoclonal antibodies are practically miraculous to people with a lot of autoimmune conditions. I have one which almost certainly would have blinded me 30 years ago. Today I can get an (admittedly enormously expensive, we still have progress to make there) IV infusion every couple of months which has practically no side effects and effectively forces the disease into remission. This drug (Remicade) wasn't around when I was born, and I'm only 39.

tim333 6y ago

Things are kind of distorted from what would be fair. The near zero interest rates have lead to high property prices which has made owners rich and renters poor in a rather arbitrary manner. It's like the governments are trying to control a lot of variables with only a couple of levers.

imtringued 6y ago
A lot of the Fed problems are related to the fact that it doesn't have direct control over the economy and the help (fiscal stimulus) that is most needed can only be done by the US government.

roenxi 6y ago

Add to that the collapse in wage growth and the conspicuous difference in the rate of improvement in Asia vs in America. The World Bank says [0] the US GDP per capita has more than doubled since 1996. In real terms. Computers have been a big boost, but it seems a tough sell that the US population has actually seen a real doubling in that time. That is saying a dude with a house in 1996 is a dude with 2 houses now. Is that arguably true? Where is the stuff? [0] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?location...

RugnirViking 6y ago
> Is that arguably true? Where is the stuff? In the hands of increasingly few people, namely tech billionaires. Amazon for example is worth more than all but 18 of the entire world's sovereign nations' respective GDP. The economy has grown tremendously, in measurable terms, but that growth has almost exclusively gone to the 0.1%
- toss1 6y ago
  True And also much of the 'stuff' is here, or converted to services. 25 yrs ago, approx no one had 55"+ tvs, internet connection was a minority, and media eas collections of CDs/Videotapes. Now 'net connections are near-universal, and it is all streaming. Cell phones were just beginning & expensive, now everyone has a powerful computer in their pocket. We don't have two houses, but the ones we have are worth twice as much. Cars are much better developed than 2 decades ago, snd we'll soon have ubiquitous electric cars... All of it needs to be more evenly spread. Just look at the charts of portions of funds going to labor vs capital.
  - RugnirViking 6y ago
    Those things became cheaper to produce because of technological advancement, largely developed by people who did not benefit from this rise in production. They do not represent wealth in any meaningful sense. Wealth is economic power, and 55" TVs dont help you start a buisness or pay a downpayment for a mortgage. Internet connection may once have served as some measure of economic power, but its no coincidence that those with the power currently are doing everything they can to restrict the rights of normal people to create using it. Imo, its really about things that give you more agency over your own life and the world. Cars are good, they represent a great increase in our ability to travel and make decisions for ourselves. > We don't have two houses, but the ones we have are worth twice as much. This is largely a wealth transfer to the elderly. Among under 40s, home ownership has fallen consistently since the 1990s, with only a brief increase in 2001-2005.

sauwan 6y ago

Many economists argue that the 2008 stimulus didn't do enough, and that where it did provide stimulus it was applied at the wrong places (towards the top rather than the bottom). That's why we're seeing this response to the current situation.

api 6y ago
If you are going to do stimulus, the way we are doing it now is better. Even better still would be to drop money from helicopters. There's an argument to be made that we have done too much over the past ~10 years and are risking significant inflation, but that's a separate argument and it's hard to say what else we could have done that would have been better. Inflationary blowoff is usually less painful than deflationary depression, but neither is good. Policy is often an exercise in choosing the least awful option.
- imtringued 6y ago
  I agree, ineffective policies just cause unintended consequences. If the Fed or us government had done its job we wouldn't have to print so much money in the first place.

h2odragon 6y ago

Empty houses everywhere since 2008. Someone has those booked at "full value" as assets, but they're gonna take money to remove before any use of the site can be made; they have negative value.

mbil 6y ago

Lyn Alden explored this idea in her January newsletter, titled "The Hindsight Depression"[0]. > the US and much of the rest of the world have already been in a mild depression for the past 12 years, ever since the 2008 global financial crisis. It’s just not as obvious as the 1930s depression, because higher levels of technology and anti-deflationary monetary policy disguised it in a nominal sense. [0] https://www.lynalden.com/january-2021-newsletter/ https://www.lynalden.com/january-2021-newsletter/