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Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions
- dandanua 5y agoI can't understand how some smart people still sympathize Russia and say it acts only for defense. Russia has made the first annexation in Europe since WW2 and effectively control another part of Ukraine. Right now it looks like Russian logic is that every free person in the world is a potential threat to Russia. Because threat is anything that you don't control.
- ivanivanovich 5y agoDid the people of Crimea want to be in Russia or the Ukraine?
- neaden 5y agoWe don't know. They didn't have a free and fair plebiscite.
- fighterpilot 5y agoWhat's the answer to this question?
- Glavnokoman 5y agoIf you really want to know just go there and ask around. But make sure you do not use your google account or log in to github while there.
- fighterpilot 5y agoI figured someone like Pew would've run a poll there but perhaps it's too dangerous to do so?
- Glavnokoman 5y agoAny poll is subject to influences, cheating, biases, etc, etc... Just spend a week there during not so high season, so you meet mostly locals, and speak to some random people. It takes some effort probably but in my believe it is the only way to make at least a little informed opinion on any topic.
- sergeykish 5y agoRussia is information autocracy state. TV controlled by state for more than 20 years. Average Russian knows all sort of weird things, basically everything that helps Putin. West is evil, Putin is the only choice, Ukraine is fascist state, Russian is superior culture. Liberals are better, yet their culture is based on occupation, it brings joy. Annexation of Crimea have raised Putin rating to 87%.
- anelson 5y agoThere were definitely some Crimeans who preferred to be part of Russia. But I don't think the referendum was free or fair. And even if we could say that 51% of them genuinely wanted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia, it doesn't change the fact that Russia annexed Crimea first, and then, lo and behold, the Crimean people wanted Russian rule all along. I don't think there's any way to square what happened with international law. There's another devious tactic Russia uses which is IMHO even worse than the bogus referendum: They've started issuing Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in the part of Eastern Ukraine that is controlled by the "independent republics" which are de facto controlled by Russia. So now, Russia can say, truthfully, that there are many Russian citizens in Donbass, and justify military escalation there as a purely defensive act responding to Ukrainian abuses of Russian citizens. Meanwhile, life in Donbass gets worse and worse, Russian passport or not.
- anoonmoose 5y agoDoes "what the people of Crimea wanted" change whether or not Russia annexed the territory against the wishes of the current owners of the territory and against international law that Russia claims to respect?
- SpicyLemonZest 5y agoIt suggests that Russia isn't planning to annex "every free person in the world" as the parent comment suggested. They're taking blatant, aggressive advantage of the Ukrainian Revolution to expand their power and influence, and that's undoubtedly a bad thing to do, but I don't think it indicates any substantial risk to other countries in the region.
- sergeykish 5y agoTransnistria in Moldova (1991), South Ossetia in Georgia (2008), Crimea and Donbass in Ukraine (2014). They've embraced USSR, claim to return territories, its representatives claims to bomb West. No worries?
- SpicyLemonZest 5y agoWell, worries about what? I'd certainly be worried if I were in charge of a post-Soviet state with unresolved separatist movements, but I'm not sure that's really an issue the international community can solve. It's not as though these regions would be safe and peaceful if Russia weren't taking advantage.
- sergeykish 5y agoAre you trolling? Insurgence and indifference, that's what happened in Donbass and Crimea. From start to end it is RF controlled operation. No one in their mind would ask for "Russian peace", yet they are going to kill us. It is not possible to separate Russian speaking Ukrainians, there are no borders. I speak Russian, Ukrainian, English. For sure my city would be destroyed. RF claims basically every country with Russian speaking population. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus. Germany maybe? Their politicians claims dominance over the world. They blame West on every problem, and people believe.
- drran 5y agoRussians want to live in Crimea, so they packed up peoples of Crimea and sent them to Siberia. Can you travel to Siberia and ask them, please?
- dandanua 5y agoI bet they would prefer to be a part USA, France, or Japan at least, if not brainwashed.
- partiallypro 5y agoMany Germans in the Sudetenland were happy to become part of Germany in WW2, that doesn't mean anything. That was one of Hitler's excuses for invading and annexing early on. He took it too far (in the eyes of the allies) when he invaded Poland, though the Polish Corridor was formerly German as well.
- kvgr 5y agoIf 55% wanted what about the 45%?
- backtoyoujim 5y ago> Russia has made the first annexation in Europe What an interesting choice of regions to single out.
- ceilingcorner 5y agoIt's more tricky than it seems. For example, do you support the right of people to self-determine? Should Scotland be allowed to secede from the UK and join the EU? While elections in Crimea were clearly not "fair" and the method by which it "joined" Russia was nebulous, the peninsula is absolutely Russian-speaking. It's pretty likely that the population would choose to join Russia, if they'd been given the chance. Not defending Russia here, but as I said, it's complex.
- sergeykish 5y agoI am Russian-speaking. But also Ukrainian, English and a bit German. Is this a reason to occupy my country by GB? Please stop spreading lies. Scotland self determination is peaceful. Crimea had its parliament. No one cared to vote until occupation and brainwashing by RF controlled propaganda spreading awful lies about Ukraine. And there are no fair elections in Russia.
- Merem 5y ago"Right now it looks like Russian logic is that every free person in the world is a potential threat to Russia. Because threat is anything that you don't control." Don't you mean "American logic"? If not, have you looked at a political and military map in the last couple of years, as well as paid attention to the changes?
- coldcode 5y agoIf you are a Russian "president" and have domestic troubles like a crappy economy and lots of Covid, always remember the 34th rule of acquisition "War is good for business".
- bserge 5y agoUntil inevitably people start asking why they spent all that money, time and lives on it and where's their cut of the spoils.
- drran 5y agoIf you are president of RF and caused Covid-19 epidemic (search for "blast at Vector lab"), the most rational move is to increase tension and then try to trade peace for amnesty.
- shashurup 5y agoWhat lots of covid??? Is there some new source of information I'm not aware of?
- sergeykish 5y ago> The country’s official coronavirus death toll is 102,649. But at least 300,000 more people died last year during the pandemic than were reported in Russia’s most widely cited official statistics. 362,302 Total Excess Deaths https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia-death.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia...
- shashurup 5y agoThat is interesting. Very reasonable approach. The only problem is that they failed to provide the link to the materials they used in the study. And I don't see death rate statistics for 2020, only for 2019 and before. Publication calendar states that the nearset publication is expected on May, 15.
- 5y ago
- jjgreen 5y agoFrom the guideline: "Otherwise please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize". [1] The original article title is "Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions" [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- robertobanderas 5y agoAye, fixed.
- pvg 5y agoThe more important guideline there is really 'Don't post regular news articles, for the most part'
- robertobanderas 5y agoUkraine is important in tech industry, given crazy amount of outsourcing and strong tech sector which are mostly american companies (e.g. Lyft, Snapchat, Oracle, Google, Ring)
- pvg 5y agoEverything is important in some way, HN is just not a good place to discuss regular news. As the guidelines mention.
- anonymouswacker 5y agoReading between the lines: Western Intelligence agencies are gearing up for a war with Russia.
- dogma1138 5y agoWestern intelligence agencies must have really upped their HUMINT game if they can park some 100,000 Russian regulars and heavy armor on the border.
- anonymouswacker 5y agoSelective reporting and editorial bias, is what I'm referring to.
- dogma1138 5y agoSelective reporting on what? Russia has been massing troops on the border. The reporting is fine, at this point it’s not a question if Russia would invade the Ukraine they already have, the question is would the west stand up to them with this time or not.
- vbezhenar 5y agoUkraine threatens to invade DPR and LPR. Russia gathers forces to scare Ukraine and to prevent that invasion. For me it's pretty simple. War is unlikely, because Ukraine won't risk it. Russia does not want to invade Ukraine either, because it's just don't make sense, at least right now, when they want to finish Nord Stream 2.
- mourner 5y ago> Ukraine threatens to invade DPR and LPR That's what Russian propaganda says, but it has no basis in reality.
- vbezhenar 5y agohttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56678665 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56678665 It's not Russian propaganda, it's Russian officials.
- kvgr 5y agoIs there any difference?
- vbezhenar 5y agoPropaganda presumes lies. Official position is just that: official position. Kremlin believes that Ukraine is preparing to war. There are reports about Ukraine forces gathering up, so those beliefs probably are justified.
- kvgr 5y agoIs there any presumption that Russia politicians are not lying? They are the spokesperson of propaganda.
- vbezhenar 5y agoThere's not, just like there's not any presumption that BBC reports about Russian forces are not lying. So one should weight all the information and choose which one to believe. I expressed my point of view which might be wrong. There's absolutely no reason right now for Russia to invade Ukraine. They had plenty of time before. They have to finish Nord Stream 2, so they absolutely don't want to impose any additional sanctions on themselves. While US have all the incentive to break bonds between Russia and Germany and to prevent Nord Stream 2, so they commanded Zelensky to start a war, hoping that Russia will join it and Europe will be forced to impose additional sanctions. Russia could have attacked before. Russia could attack later, when Nord Stream 2 is finished and Germany is on hook and won't go anywhere. But right now it's just the wrong time.
- variable11 5y agoWall Street mafias want more. More. Always more. More blood. More slaves. More death.
- igammarays 5y agoCanadian here on the ground in Ukraine, on the Eastern side (Kharkiv). The situation is pretty serious as everyone’s talking about war, and I personally am stocking up on non-perishable food items. The prevailing opinion seems to be that Russia is just flexing muscles, but I personally believe a full scale invasion is in the works. The idea that Putin is trying to extract concessions doesn’t make sense to me, because there aren’t many concessions to extract, especially from that young idealistic Zelensky. But what do I know, read Henry Kissinger: https://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/how-the-ukraine-crisis-ends/ https://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/how-the-ukraine-cri...
- josefresco 5y ago"on the ground" as in military service or are you living/visiting?
- igammarays 5y agoLiving and working on a tech startup. Fiance is Ukrainian.
- wombat-man 5y agohmm... can you leave?
- igammarays 5y agoRunning a bootstrapped tech startup, can’t afford to leave.
- wombat-man 5y agodang, good luck bud
- arithmomachist 5y agoHaven't the Ukrainians diverted important rivers upstream on Crimea? Undoing that could be the concession Putin is hoping for.
- drran 5y agoAfter 7 years of war with Ukraine, Russians are preparing to war with Ukraine.
- Glavnokoman 5y agoGoood! Now you noticed that the article is at least partially a bullshit. But I wonder what conclusions you'll make?
- drran 5y agoRF is out of money, runway is too short, crash will happen soon. Germany will not be able to help RF.
- sergeykish 5y agoI live in Ukraine. After 7 years of proxy war RF prepares for open war. There are plenty of facts. RF controls occupied territories, "republic" leaders claimed many times it would be impossible without RF supply, mercenaries and army. They've written books on the matter. It is not a secret.
- room505 5y agoI highly recommend this Lawfare podcast episode that talks about the Ukraine issue. Alex Vindman is literally an expert on the topic. The Lawfare Podcast: Alex Vindman on the Escalation in Ukraine https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-alex-vindman-escalation-ukraine https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-alex-vindman-esc...
- sergeykish 5y agoInsurgence would have been crashed if not RF army [1]. RF military responsible for passenger plane [2]. I am from Ukraine, our army protects us from invasion. We've seen "Russian peace" in occupied territories, that's slow death. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
- bserge 5y agoAn actual war with the thousands of troops they're moving? I don't know, I hope not. Surely Russian leaders remember how the war in Afghanistan affected the USSR. It was a massive waste of money and resources, and it played a big role in destabilizing the whole regime. This would be similar, imo, if NATO backs Ukraine. Russia will just waste money, destroy lives and whatever prosperity the region had, for little to no return. Maybe they get two more republics into the federation. They're just pushing Ukraine, Georgia into NATO and everyone else away from them. What a sad state of affairs.
- fokinsean 5y agoThis along with the simultaneous rise in tensions over china/taiwan is concerning.
- robertobanderas 5y agoIf i were in Putin's shoes I would've coordinated attack on Ukraine with Chinese attack on Taiwan. That would've split US attention and resources.
- indysigners 5y agoUS have fought in two theaters at the same time before, remember?
- cdiddy2 5y agoI wonder how much Crimea running out of water has to do with this military build up. Caspian report has a good video on the water situation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqq8clIceys https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqq8clIceys
- ufmace 5y agoThe NATO part seems curious. I was under the impression that NATO does not generally accept membership from nations that don't currently control their claimed territory, and that part of the reason Russia seems to like biting off small chunks of neighboring countries was thought to be that those nations couldn't reasonably join NATO as long as the Russians were there.
- robertobanderas 5y agoThere is a precedent - Cyprus and North Cyprus which is controlled by Turkey.
- ceilingcorner 5y agoMr Kuleba recalled that in 2014 there was a Russian plan to split Ukraine and create an entity called "Novorossiya" (New Russia) - a plan foiled by Ukraine's armed forces. Not commenting on Russia vs. Ukraine here, but I wanted to point out this somewhat misleading line. Novorossiya is the name of that historical region going back to the 1700s. The way it's written by the BBC, it sounds like Russia is just inventing their own new entity from nothing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya
- azangru 5y agoI don't think it is misleading. Novorossiya, as Wikipedia points out, is a historical term. It does not exist on political maps. The phrasing is the same as if someone wanted to carve out a chunk of Germany and call it Prussia.
- ceilingcorner 5y agoYes, it's misleading because it ignores the revanchist reasoning of Russia in favor of simple "Russia bad, Russia invader, Russia imperialist" narratives. Novorossiya was historically a part of the Russian Empire for a very long time. Russia clearly wants it back. Whether they are justified in getting it or not, I have no comment. But the least we can do is actually understand their reasoning.
- willeh 5y agoAnd India was part of the British empire, Mexico (then called the viceroyalty of New Spain) a part of Spain and the list goes on. Might makes right belongs to a bygone age and people are entitled to self-determination. To decline to stand up to dictator - nay, a tyrant - such as Putin makes one a coward undeserving of the liberties they were born with.
- ceilingcorner 5y agoThese are not really good examples. India, Mexico, etc. were different cultures with thousands of years of history as independent entities. Novorossiya and indeed large parts of the current political state of Ukraine were a part of "Russia" for hundreds of years. Ukraine itself didn't really exist as a unified state from the end of the Kievan Rus (13th century) until the 20th century and was mostly a battleground between Poland, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire. Like I said, it's complicated. Does that justify Russia's actions? I don't know and I am deliberately explaining this in a neutral way.