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China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline
- hundchenkatze 6y agonon-paywalled: https://web.archive.org/web/20210412021807/https://www.economist.com/china/2021/04/03/china-is-betting-that-the-west-is-in-irreversible-decline https://web.archive.org/web/20210412021807/https://www.econo...
- josefresco 6y agoYou can subscribe to the The Economist (digital edition) for $189/year. This is actually cheaper than most (Bloomberg is $419, FT is $372). Edit: I'm just sharing information on the cost of subscription. If you look at my comment history, you'll see I've done this for others, OUT OF PURE CURIOSITY. I've also commented about how it would be unreasonable to maintain subscriptions to multiple news websites given these costs. But sure, downvote me - love you guys ;-)
- qzw 6y agoAlso check your local library. Many have electronic subscriptions now.
- josefresco 6y agoThis is great advice. I use the Libby app on iOS to borrow books/magazines from my local library to read on my Kindle.
- baron816 6y agoI managed to subscribe through DiscountMags at $50/yr a few years ago, and they allowed me to lock that price in permanently. It might be possible to get a similar deal during one of their promotion cycles.
- Seanambers 6y agoThing is, i read maybe 10-20 different news sites, not to mention the plethora of other sites with curated and written content. No normal person can afford to maintain that number of subscriptions. I wonder what a fair price for a article that gets 20-30k views would be, not to mention 2-300k. The price per view should be so low that some kind of crypto payment could work. A browser plugin with a crypto solution that autopays for content on newssites you'd preapproved or something - and you would be able to pay as you go on the web.
- oytis 6y agoI feel like the time is ripe for a "streaming service" for online newspapers.
- tonyaiken 6y agoOnly first few paragraphs are visible for me
- riffic 6y agoyour browser downloaded the entire article but there are elements that are being loaded obscuring the text. remove those elements client-side.
- jkingsbery 6y agoI just had to refresh and it showed for me.
- dcow 6y agoIf someone happened to agree with this analysis and was bearish on western liberalism, is there a place they should put their money in order to potentially profit?
- avelis 6y agoShanghai/Shenzhen Stock Exchange would be my guess.
- gherkinnn 6y agoAnd what makes you think you'll make it to the other side?
- epa 6y agoBitcoin
- trulyme 6y agoI wasn't bearish while reading the article, but your comment does make one wonder... :-/
- klout_ 6y agoNo, there isn't. The best you could do is disassociate from any criticisms you have made about CCP. Better yet, start a pro-CCP newsletter in substack, and hope for the best.
- seriousquestion 6y agoInstitutions like Apple, the NBA and the corporate press embraced this strategy a while ago. They echo CCP talking points about how terrible the US is, while largely ignoring factory worker conditions, Hong Kong and the ongoing Uyghur genocide.
- klout_ 6y agoTaking on CCP or any powerful entity ideologically is above the pay grade of corporate entities, so no surprises there. However the US government should put pressure on these entities and put sanctions when appropriate. You can't keep empowering authoritarian governments at your own expense.
- throwaway122378 6y agoNot only betting but making sure the West declines
- mrits 6y agoI'd like to think that extreme racism, homophobia, and other forms of bigotry won't be a winning recipe. A lot of the advantages China has in their government is beneficial for competing with other nations but will eventually eat itself from within.
- rafale 6y agoChina promotes a monolithic Chinese identity above race and class. That's why they are called an ethnostate. It's the anti multiculturalism and it seems to be working for them for the most part. Despite the awful nazi grade stuff going on in some parts.
- jszymborski 6y agoThis "unity" comes at a horribly steep cost. Side-stepping for a moment the humanitarian and ethical costs for a brief moment, an enforced homogeneity of ideology leaves little room for independent thinking. At some point, you end up passing down every decision down and idea down a party line like a bucket through a fire brigade. That severely stifles innovation and creates an incredibly narrow view of your options. But I promised we'd come back to the humanitarian and ethical costs. Diversity is strength. It's more than twee corporate advertising, it's a truth. It's hard to approach new problems when everyone is reading off the same song sheet. Strengths become reinforced, but weaknesses become far more weak; it's a very brittle strength.
- rafale 6y agoThat's what I used to believe, that a totalitarian regime can never compete with a free society. The USSR tried and failed. But China is something different. They are extremely competent. And they are past their copy cat phase. I don't believe they have a creativity issue. I think the free society model is failing given how easy to dissipate false information, especially the kind that get people riled up against each other. It's not a surprise the US feels so divided today despite all the progress made in civil rights. Our enemies/adversaries know that. They know our weak spot. And they made it their strength. China found a way to do it without compromising other aspects of its society too much.
- 1cvmask 6y agoThe thing China cares most about is to not be humiliated and attacked by the whites. We sent the 7th fleet to interfere in their civil war and help prop up fleeing Chiang Kai Shek in Taiwan. Curious to see how their civil war will end. The last US administration that drew up invasion plans on China was under term 1 of Obama and they figured that window was closed. That’s why they came up with TPP to economically strangle China (and the Huawei ban started under Obama as well). Worth watching the whole video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO3izbn201s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO3izbn201s
- Grustaf 6y agoA pretty safe bet.
- rafale 6y agoThe west is in decline because progressive values don't promote strength. They focus on class and are inherently divisive. Ironically, they only blossom in strong societies. The decline will allow other societies with a more conservative philosophy to take over and it will be their turn in a few centuries to succumb to the same tragedy. The baizuo tragedy.
- throwaway-70b8 6y agospot on. CCP cultivates it. also, your account is screwed. These are not the sort of opinions one's allowed to have connected to their real name
- craig1f 6y agoYes, because Trump was totally strong against other countries. He was a useless little bitch against China, Russia, North Korea, and anyone else willing to pay him a couple dollars to walk all over America.
- MisterBastahrd 6y agoI hate to break it to you, but progressive values aren't why the dictators of the world walked all over the US for the past 4 years.
- SubiculumCode 6y agoThat's ridiculous. No dictator has walked all over the US in the last 4 years or ever. Anytime we failed diplomatically it occurred with the knowledge that our military dominance was insurmountable and complete, but that it's use indiscriminately would not serve our overall diplomatic strategic policy of caring about human rights, and self-imposed limits on how we use our military. Any of our failures in war against dictators etc directly stems from self-imposed limits on how we use our military power. We could literally glass them but we don't. Thank goodness.
- MisterBastahrd 6y agoMilitary dominance is only insurmountable and complete when it's a credible threat, and ours hasn't actually won a war of note in over half a century. The best we've ever done in that timeframe has been to supplement military leadership that was already in place, and we've failed to even accomplish that half the time. The US military is a money pit.
- throwastrike 6y agoAnd I am betting that CCP will implode within the decade. If west is in decline please stop sending your top students abroad to study (and stay there). Great job promoting brain drain. I am tired of this unfounded narrative that the west is in decline. No, it’s not. It’s actually getting stronger by the day especially the US.
- Covzire 6y agoWhat indications are you seeing of this?
- mgolawala 6y agoI, personally am ambivalent on this subject. I see many signs that support the narrative of a west in decline while also seeing signs that it still has plenty of innovation and strength still left in it. The center of technological innovation still resides here in the west. In the west the industrial and technological prowess are demonstrated through its corporations. For a recent example, look at the speed of development, and efficacy of the vaccines developed in the West compared to the ones developed in China. Beating the west by creating a better vaccine, faster would have been like the Moon landing in terms of raising China's prestige and stature. SpaceX, despite being only a mid sized company in the US, has a space program that is more advanced that any nation on Earth. Companies like Boston Robotics and Waymo continue to sprout up in the US. In the event of a total war situation, the west would have a better chance of calling upon the expertise and knowledge of companies like these, much as it did in World War II. However, things do change. China continues to rise. If it plays its cards right, it can become a rival to, and even eclipse the west. However the fact is, the west continues to be a center for innovation, that pulls in the smartest and brightest from all over the world. People from everywhere, including China, continue to immigrate to it and bring new blood to its competitive economic engine. Feeding the creative destruction of economic and technological innovation. China does not yet have this. It's corporations sit in service of their bureaucracy, its public discourse and innovation is hampered by its great firewall. A Chinese proverb comes to mind - "We'll see"
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- andyxor 6y agoThey're right, Biden win in the elections was an indication of success of their sabotage campaigns, trying to divide us. America is getting weak.
- Daho0n 6y agoIt's very hard to disagree IMO. The west is in decline and unless something catastrophic happens in PRC or war breaks out (also pretty catastrophic) I can't see any future where the PRC isn't going to at least become on par with the US soon but most likely it will succeed it as top dog. The only question in my mind is where do the EU end up in all this and if Russia will become closer with PRC or EU. IMO the biggest failure in all this is that the opposition to PRC's rise is the same old as we have seen before and it's very clear that it will fail. As an outsider to both the US and PRC it looks to me like the US does all it can to shoot itself in the foot continually for whatever reason while PRC is playing on a totally different level. Maybe because US policy are mostly only until next election?
- vkou 6y agoUnless Russia gets another revolution, it's likely to remain its own pole. It has a sphere of influence, exports that its neighbours are dependant on, and an ossified political structure.
- subpixel 6y ago> because US policy are mostly only until next election elections in the US are like earnings calls for public companies and drive the same short-term thinking.
- me_me_me 6y agoI would disagree wholeheartedly with you on that point. Consider thefact that US external policies are always the same, Bush was the 'opposite' of Obama and yet US is still in Afghanistan and they still commit war crimes across the globe despite the fact since Bush Jr there was Lib/Rep/Lib presidents. US - which still shapes worlds events by far - can start wars and fly drones in foreign countries that kill people there. Russia can only send 'green men' to Ukraine or provoke a short term strike with Georgia. This is not a result of a short term thinking nation.
- TearsInTheRain 6y agoThe US is more than just its government. It is easy to argue that we are in a cultural decline as well. We all have agency in that regard.
- eunos 6y agoWith all of articles like this, I am puzzled how correct is this? Is it possible that China isn't really betting but only the Economist that think so? I mean Biden admin use the word 'China' to accelerate his wishes (infrastructure, stimulus and so on).
- MattGaiser 6y agoWhat other bet is there for China to make really? If the West were growing in power, they don't really have many options.
- eunos 6y agoNot betting anything?
- Bayesian_bro 6y agoWe are declining because we are becoming more like China. More censorship, larger control of central government, currency manipulation. I actually see this as inevitable as you get a larger and larger population freedoms need to get reduced to maintain a stable society.
- LegitShady 6y agoDisagree. The first part, becoming more like china due to censorhip, etc is true. The 2nd part has no basis in reality. The issue is the concentration of power in the hands of the technocrats who now make decisions for everyone on censorship, currency manipulation, etc. It isn't inevitable, its the result of the concentration of power and the failure of the US government to regulate massive monopolies especially in the tech space that have crushed or bought out newcomers, concentrating power further and ruining progress via buyouts and copying.
- more_corn 6y agoIf you post paywalled articles we get a paywalled internet. Stop posting them.
- 0-_-0 6y agoI don't see a paywall
- umvi 6y agoIf you don't pay people for writing, writers will find other ways to get paid which runs the risk of their writing being tainted/biased by their monetization method (i.e. their writing just becomes marketing).
- oytis 6y agoIt's enough to read the headline though :)
- EdwinLarkin 6y agoThat's ridiculous.China is the one in irreversible decline. Most people in the West get to enjoy freedom and access to utilities money cant buy in China. 1) For once most people in the west have access to safe and good tap water.Chinese urban dwellers dont. 2) Most people in the west live in places with significantly better air quality than chinese. 3) Most people in the west get to enjoy freedoms chinese cant even talk about 4) West is attracting young people from all around the world. Chinese middle class will demand the same standard of living like people in the West and CCP will be unable to give it to them.
- newdude116 6y ago1. Well, maybe in Europe. tap water in the US isn't especially good. 2. Air quality is improving fast. 3. The the right to unaffordable health care? 4) Obviously you have never lived in China. Sorry to break the news to you. Yes, China is attracting young people from all over the world too.
- EdwinLarkin 6y ago1. At least it's drinkable and not poisoned like in China. 2. No it is not. Have not you seen the dystopian reality of Beijing from last month? 3. Chinese healthcare is hazard on its own. 4. I have. China is not attracting anyone on a comparable level like the EU or the US. Also you dont get to stay and work in China even if you married someone from there.
- newdude116 6y ago2.? Are you serious? This was a sandstorm, a very natural phenomenon. In fact, I love sandstorms since they remind me of my best times in Beijing. 3. They have clinics that would make most western clinics cry. Yes, they charge like western clinics too. But I have been for a minor thing in a normal Chinese hospital, a friend of mine had his appendix removed and another US friend of mine got a major surgery in a Chinese military hospital. 4. Don't know where you have been. Shanghai and Beijing is full of young and ambitious people from all over the world. They look for the future, not for the past. I was an immigrant in the US myself (also have an US passport now). The US was always closed for me. Zero opportunities. In China it is a brand new world. Opportunities, ambition, money. I consider it my home.
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- j_walter 6y agoThey are probably not wrong. When you look at the infighting within the US that is front page news every day...the decline is in full swing. People care less about how to actually improve the country than they do about trying to hold entire professions accountable for the actions of a few (not just cops)...then we are focused on the wrong things. Spending hundreds of days protesting something instead of putting that time toward actually cleaning up neighborhoods or tutoring underprivileged youth and it's all a waste. Defund the police...just emboldened the criminals and caused more death than anything the police have done. 17 people have been killed by Police in Portland between 2013 and 2020...so far in 2021 there have been more homicides in Portland than there were in 2017 and 2018 and we are on track for over 100 homicides this year. The US became a super power in the last 200 years...and the focus should be maintaining our competitive edge and working where there will be benefit.
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- ceejayoz 6y ago> so far in 2021 there have been more homicides in Portland than there were in 2017 and 2018 and we are on track for over 100 homicides this year Out of curiosity, have any other items than "defund the police" happened in, say, March 2020 through the present, that might've affected crime rates?
- Justsignedup 6y agoYes. High poverty is directly linked to an increase in crime. High unemployment leads to that.
- centimeter 6y agoPoverty is actually a quite weak predictor of crime rates once you condition on demographic factors such as percent single-parent households.
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- user764743 6y ago"ITS GAZE fixed on the prize of becoming rich and strong, China has spent the past 40 years as a risk-averse bully. Quick to inflict pain on smaller powers, it has been more cautious around any country capable of punching back." The same could be said about the United States' behavior on the international scene these past decades.
- bellyfullofbac 6y agoI don't like China and find what they're doing in Xinjiang abhorrent (and I believe that the Western media reports are truthful and not just made up shit), but that part of the article made me wonder if the West has been or is as bad, but the Economist (and myself) ignore it because, "Hey, we're the good guys!". There isn't a lot of outrage about miners of rare minerals with dangerous working conditions or poorly paid Bangladeshi textile workers, or the slave workers building the Middle Eastern countries (at least not to the level where western politicians talk about sanctions), is it because these people are suppliers for our Apple, H&M, or that they have a lot of oil and money which we wish to attract?
- russli1993 6y agoFrom my knowledge of what is happening in xinjiang, I strongly questions what the western media reports are saying. My opinions are very long so I posted it on medium. I would appreciate it if you have the time to take a look. I offer my perspectives on the issue. https://lty13800.medium.com/my-thoughts-on-xinjiang-daa8d391af8c https://lty13800.medium.com/my-thoughts-on-xinjiang-daa8d391...
- bellyfullofbac 6y agoGod, your response is too long, too rambling, and would take too much time to refute. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop . But here I am having wasted half an hour anyway. You're doing the same thing you accuse them of doing, using online videos (apparently Chinese-sanctioned ones!) to claim things aren't happening. Sure things look nice there, but I would question if these video makers are being sponsored by China, or being lead through a Potemkin village: https://theprint.in/opinion/china-is-paying-foreign-journalists-including-from-india-to-report-from-beijing/154013/ https://theprint.in/opinion/china-is-paying-foreign-journali... (yeah, random link from a Google result, very trustworthy). If I were the Chinese government, I'd find the few people who are willing to say my version of the story, and lead the Youtubers to them. Even the Malay vlogger wrote in her captions that her friend got into an incident where police asked her to take off her Muslim garment, and the friend seemingly able to get away with keeping it on because she was foreign... how is that not religious oppression? In her vlog I see mostly Han Chinese, and she even added a part where she said people around her are asking each other why she has a headscarf on. And how do you explain this lady's experience? Did the CIA/western propagandists pay here to write this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/12/uighur-xinjiang-re-education-camp-china-gulbahar-haitiwaji https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/12/uighur-xinjian... Anyway, your long response haven't convinced me that the CCP aren't doing oppression in Xinjiang. I'm not going to defend the "1 in 12" number, nor can I defend the maybe exaggerated Western media reports you have read, but my guess is the oppression is done in a hushed way that you won't see it by walking into a Grand Bazaar.
- EricE 6y agolol - they aren't just betting - they are aiding and abetting through their sycophants in the media, academia and amazingly big business too. While we argue about right/left/dem/republican they continue to divide and conquer through attrition. And we are letting it happen right under our collective noses.
- commandlinefan 6y agoYeah, as far as I can see, they're funding it. Pretty successfully.
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- SubiculumCode 6y agoAn internet that is open to our geopolitical adversaries is a U.S. weakness, not a strength. It's like inviting our adversaries to war with us in our own territory.
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- gfodor 6y agoBalaji's probably right, again.
- medium_burrito 6y agoThey have some massive negatives to deal with: - China is net food and energy importer. Look at last year for a preview of future food. The land they leased in Africa won't help in terms of climate shift, locusts, etc. Who is the number of one food and energy exporter? - China has an aeging population, and it's already a rapid shift. - China's infrastructure isn't as well built as other countries (see their most important infrastructure project ever being the literal definition of half-assed), and it will start degrading, and maintenance is a pain. What happens when a few dams collapse, or nuke plant blows up? - Supply chains are moving elsewhere. - Taiwan has enough medium-range missles to take out the Three Gorges Dam, which is effectively MAD as far as China is concerned. One could also see Taiwan being a few minutes away from going nuclear, if need be(learning the Ukraine lesson). - The US controls space, and will solidify it's grip in the next 3 years. Nobody is within even a decade of SpaceX's launch technology. 60s solid fuel missles to launch small satellites into orbit won't cut it. Putting Mir 2.0 into orbit won't cut it. A moonbase that is effectively an even more expensive and worthless version of Belt and Road won't cut it (and obviously will provide less jobs). - What do you do about automation, if it wipes out jobs for all the restive angry young men? Now sure, a war in the South China Sea favors China heavily, but I don't think the "Let's party in Taiwan" scenario is winnable for them without wiping out 80% of their agriculture, their entire biomedial industry and their main banking centre, along with a bunch of nuke plants and military bases. Not to mention the US soon being able to just stack depleted uranium telephone poles in orbit to protect it's dependencies. A larger scale war in SE Asia would probably just drag the region back 50 years, and China would likely be on the losing end as all their neighbors hate them, and India for example has a very competent military. The whole "West is in decline" narrative assumes countries are static- the US is especially dynamic in terms of social trends. We are about to end the war on drugs and undergo a massive shift in our education trends as we realize most schooling is worthless, and there is decent chance we'll go to UBI. Now granted the current expamles of UBI in the ME don't bode well, but it's kind of a hazy future. Now if this was for Western Europe, sure I could buy it.
- alert0 6y agoAgree with everything except the implications about Belt and Road. This was actually strategically clever by China. In 2012 they stopped purchasing (as much) US debt which stopped feeding our reserve currency system. Being a reserve currency requires a country to run persistent trade deficits, not the most sustainable but when everyone takes the inflow of USD and buys bonds, it feeds the USD back into the system allowing it to go on. China bucked this trend and instead started putting their money to work in Africa. This undermines the USD's position petty well.
- fnord77 6y ago> They say some Chinese officials are convinced that the eu will soon drop its Xinjiang-related sanctions, because Europe cannot recover from the pandemic without Chinese growth. Anyone else think they are grossly underestimating the EU?
- rebolek 6y agoEveryone is. That’s EU’s greatest strength.
- Glavnokoman 6y ago:) You made my day!
- imafish 6y agoMost definitely.
- Layke1123 6y agoWhy does it have to be the West versus the East? Why does "one side" have to be right and the other wrong? Can't we just take the strengths of each and acknowledge the weaknesses of both and form a better society?
- gumby 6y agoWest in decline? This was predicted back in '18 when Spengler published his famous book, "The Decline of the West". Oh wait, that was 1918. The "west" faces a relative decline, which is something to celebrate.* And I can hardly blame the Chinese government for taking an assertive position or for capitalizing on weaknesses in their perceived adversaries. But China faces some structural problems just at the time when the western powers are starting to reevaluate some fundamental assumptions of the last 40 and 75 years. All around this sounds like a net good all around. Yes, even the repressive activities of the Chinese government I believe will moderate, as the US has become less thrusting in its own imperialism. * Edit: I say this as someone born in the "west", living in the USA right now. Too much imbalance leads to stagnation, both in company policies (i.e. corporate monopolies) and geopolitics.
- jean_tta 6y agoI mean he was right (in that there was a decline of the West, or Europe in particular - I am not familiar with the content of his book beyond that). The West went from conquering & dominating almost every place of the planet despite being but a small minority of its population to losing the vast majority of their conquests. The tech difference between say Paris, 1918 & Shenzhen, 1918 was much higher than today - in fact I would say Shenzhen is ahead.
- idownvoted 6y agoWell it’s not like pouring oil on fire via the devisive woke movement is exactly hard.
- pcbro141 6y agoWhy did the US let its infrastructure get to such a bad state? And why are there so many dilapidated neighborhoods and literally crumbling schools? The US is filthy rich, couldn't they have fixed these things decades ago? Just spend hundreds of billions investing in neighborhoods that have historically been intentionally left to rot? Is it just disdain for the people who live in the crumbling areas? Serious question. I see a lot of people lately say 'progressive woke politics' is the reason the US is declining with poor infrastructure, lack of universal healthcare, etc, but aren't progressives generally in favor of universal healthcare and improving infrastructure and other spending to improve quality of life?
- sidlls 6y agoBecause in America the poor are merely temporarily embarrassed millionaires, millionaires-to-be, etc. It’s less disdain than sheer ignorance.
- TheAdamAndChe 6y agoGlobalization combined with a strong dollar(due to our reserve currency status, which gives us power over other countries but at a cost) led to the export of millions upon millions of manufacturing jobs and businesses, causing a decline in manufacturing, mostly in rural areas.
- bellyfullofbac 6y agoAttempt of a serious answer: it seems like it's really Republican (party) ideology that government should be small enough to be able to be drowned in a bathtub, and any amount of money for the people is deemed sinful. Never mind that it makes sense to build good roads, fast trains, and even good schools to educate people. Seems like the GOP has a "If we do x, that will prove our propaganda all this time has been wrong, and it's political suicide" problem. As an opposite example, they quickly agreed to Covid bailouts last year because blocking that money would've been an even faster way to commit political suicide.
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- thepasswordis 6y agoIt's because we stopped focusing on creating things, and instead started laser focusing on making sure that everybody gets exactly the same amount of everything all the time. It's ridiculous. We are trust fund children who don't understand where the money came from, and it will be our undoing. Twitter, NYT, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC and the like have monetized dividing us, and they have a multi-billion dollar a year budget to figure out how to be more efficient at it. We demonize people who create things. We demonize people who want to form communities, and we even demonize people who might dare to suggest that The United States is rightfully an example for the rest of the world. We have gutted our education system. Many of my wealthy friends are either pregnant or have recently have had children. 0 of them will send their kids to a school where they learn that math is racist, the united states is completely racist, white people are racist, trees are racist, grammar is racist, and that they should be skeptical and distrustful of their parents. We've gone from "America is a beautiful project we all create" to "America is a mine with jewels at the bottom, and we need to extract them and make sure that everybody gets their fair share". It's unbelievably, unbelievably sad.
- elmomle 6y agoAgree with exploitation mentality, disagree with "everybody getting their fair share" being the core. That exploitation/financialization mentality really hit its stride with Reagan, though both parties eventually vied to see who could do it more. It is ostensibly independent of where the money goes to. But the winners were always the rich. Inequality in the US between the top 0.01% and "everyone else" has increased tremendously in the past 40 years (https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2017/article/never-mind-1-percent-lets-talk-about-001-percent https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2017/article/never...).
- vict7 6y agoNo, the miniscule strides made towards a more equitable society are not the issue. We laser focused on the generation of profit for the few at the expense of everything and everyone else. Where do you get your news? OAN?
- MisterBastahrd 6y agoIt's funny you think that, because black folks in America have been saying for years that they deserve a cut of what was stolen from them, and the response is "we have ours, go pound sand."
- ceilingcorner 6y agoOn an optimistic note, I am not convinced that China is going to win any cultural wars. America, for all its problems, still is essentially a leader for much of the developing world, at least in terms of culture. People watch American shows, know American celebrities, listen to American music, etc. This is facilitated by the fact that these cultural elements are pretty diverse and are open to immigrants. As in, a guy like Akon or Obama can be second generation American with parent(s) from abroad. This same phenomenon doesn’t exist with China. Most people don’t know any entertainment that comes out of China, beyond a few video games. An African immigrant cannot move to Shanghai and expect his children to be treated as full citizens or even members of the Chinese nation. As long as China remains an ethnostate, I don’t see this changing. The possible, but worrying scenario is that Chinese capital owns Western cultural production, implicitly (see: Disney or the NBA) or explicitly.
- BitwiseFool 6y agoAs Americans, I feel like we've gotten accustomed to the idea that soft-power means other nations consume our culture through media. We are used to the world listening to our music, watching our movies, and reading our books. We think that we influence the world through our superior and diverse culture. We want the rest of the world to be more like us. But it seems like the Chinese Government isn't interested in evangelizing the "Chinese Way" around the world. They just want the other nations to enrich the Chinese Economy and fall-in-line during international disputes.
- newdude116 6y agoYou know it all man. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrQHPbISpHg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrQHPbISpHg (Yes, you don't speak Chinese but their call her chocolate girl)
- BigW1lly 6y agoI'd say Korea is actually winning the cultural war. K-pop has taken the world by storm. Hollywood is in decline, if you'll notice, good movies are harder to come by nowadays.
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- Pandabob 6y agoAs a European, I've never been so pessimistic about the EU but so optimistic about the USA. I really feel like European leaders need some kind of wake up call.
- BigW1lly 6y agoYes, they are very complacent. Perhaps a single strong leader could be the source of inspiration, the catalyst to a stronger European continent. Right now, the people are not inspired by any of the current "leaders".
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- mbrodersen 6y agoAs a European, I feel the complete opposite. The US can learn a lot from Western Europe on how to run a healthy Democracy for the people and not the rich.
- fasteddie31003 6y agoI hope the world can exist with a strong China and a strong US. Why are they mutual exclusive? We both have our strengths and weaknesses.
- magicsmoke 6y agoPolitical proselytism. Certain advocates for democracy believe that democracy and autocracy cannot coexist in the same world and autocracies must be toppled wherever they appear. Honestly I'm seeing parallels with the christian crusades. Remember that religion and politics were historically one and the same.
- starfallg 6y agoChina needs structural reform before it can exist harmoniously with the US and the rest of the advanced economies. The gap is just too big in terms of civil liberties and rule of law.
- hohohmm 6y agoExactly. China has never opposed a strong, healthy and positive US. It's the US that's getting increasingly poisonous over China, to maintain its hegemony. A change of political mindset could really see the world with two great countries with different but competitive systems that could learn from each other and see each other's shortcomings.
- shoemakersteve 6y agoBecause China doesn't like it when people point out that they have concentration camps.
- AnimalMuppet 6y agoOr point out any other flaw. Or say that Taiwan isn't the same country. Or mention Tiananmin Square. Or Winnie the Pooh. Or...
- alert0 6y agoIt is just where we are in the long term debt cycle. The US dollar will devalue in the next decade, but we aren't facing a collapse or anything. We are out of monetary tools (interest rates near zero) to stave off deflation, so we will turn to fiscal tools (printing money). This is a good thing as it will make the US more competitive on exports. We may lose our global reserve currency status but that is not a sustainable position, so it is somewhat inevitable. The US is still one of the most desirable places for foreign talent. I hope we maintain that position. That creates demand for US resources and provides the people currently here with a comfortable retirement. China is not so welcoming to foreigners, nor is it very desirable given the pollution.
- greenonions 6y agoAn under-rated asset to the United States is it's attraction of immigrants. If the US could muster the willingness to make immigration a fast and smooth process once again, it would be an enormous benefit.
- SubiculumCode 6y agoDebt in our own fiat currency is not a problem unless it causes inflation. If anything, we have underrealized our economic potential by artificial monetary constraints.
- hohohmm 6y agoWrong. China is not betting on it, rather the US is betting that China is betting on it, to poise China in an adversary role. China has plenty of its own problems to mind and its road to mondernization is far from over. It's the US that's in question. Why is it fussing over China so much? Why not mind its own business? Why blame everything on China when the US could spend the time improving lives for its own citizens? Or is its blood-sucking, globally exploitive economy cannot function without the sacrifice of an imaginary enemy? US is the one that gets red-eyed all over a country that's doing good, just because itself can't seem to get out of the decline. What the US doesn't have, others can't either.
- jayd16 6y agoJust as a commercial worker, if you look at trying to do business in China it seems China very much does think about foreigners and foreign business much more than most of the western world.
- twobitshifter 6y agoChina has absurd outlandish reactions to anyone whispering Taiwan, or saying a single negative thing, and you think the US is the one that is “red-eyed”?
- throwaway-70b8 6y agoHow long has China's thumb been on the scale? Does anyone really believe the wumao is limited to China? The CCP has its hands in everything. Social unrest, identity politics, political correctness. They're patient, easier to overthrow the west by sowing internal division and weakness than guns and armies.
- fsociety 6y agoI agree that the "West" is in a decline, and I'm hopeful we can get out of it. The issue I have with these articles is that it suggests the "West" has always ruled the world, when reality is a bit different. The US was never hegemonic over Russia, China, or India. China also has some serious issues to tackle related to their massive growth and demographic problems. This is made worse by their unwillingness to open up their markets and try to fight the US on consumer spending - which powers much of the economic power that the US has. China tries to control the narrative as it is advantageous to do so. Reality is, I think India's economy has more chance to overtake the world than China but nothing is for certain.
- dougmwne 6y agoFor all the hand-wringing over the decline of the West, it never seemed very likely to me. Half the world's GDP comes from the liberal democracies of North America and Europe. That economic and political power is not going to bow down to any other world power that is not ideologically aligned. The West will do business with China for exactly as long as it's in the West's interest. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that supply chains can change and businesses can adapt when required to.
- jean_tta 6y agoIn the long term, the West (Europe at first) went from at best a not particularly interesting place compared to, say, China to the global hegemon because 1. it became much better at war than the others [0] 2. it became much richer than the others [1] Much has been written about how Western values and/or institutions and/or any other causes led to 1 and/or 2 and the interplay between 1 and 2. The warfare advantage is primarily tech-based against peer enemies. Training and sheer size may matter against asymmetric foes but against China it's basically whoever has the best technology. Given the relative size of Western countries and the rest of the world (China is about four times as big as the US for instance), the West needs to be many times richer per capita to be a larger economic power than China or India. Note that the West used to be a much higher percentage of the world population in the past. There's a lot of catching up both in technology in particular, including military technologies, and economic catch up more broadly; it is very unlikely that the West can leap again and grow/innovate so much faster than China & India can't catch up enough to dominate. People in this thread seems to be too focused on what they see as a cultural decline within the US and not see the economic and technology long term catch up. [0] see for instance https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691139708/why-did-europe-conquer-the-world https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691139708/wh... [1] see for instance https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691090108/the-great-divergence https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691090108/th...
- wackro 6y ago>Note that the West used to be a much higher percentage of the world population in the past. I wonder about this quite a lot. This is obviously mainly due to the boom in developed world esp China, but do you have any opinions about 'fixing' the fertility rate in the West? Is it futile when the developing world incl China will always have higher rates?
- jean_tta 6y ago> This is obviously mainly due to the boom in developed world esp China Europe (and the "West" aka where Europe sent its surplus citizens) went through its fertility transition [0] earlier than the rest of the world. Hence it increased its relative size as it experienced a high fertility / low death period, and decreased its relative size after it went to a low fertility / low death while part of the rest of the world went into their high fertility / low death phase. So we can probably expect currently high population growth to transition to the low fertility / low death endgame. China is already well past it. As far as I know, no country went back to a high fertility / low death scenario, though countries stabilized at various level of low fertility. Most Western countries have institutions that rely on population growth (high debt that would lead to enormous debt per capita if the number of people decreases, unmaintained infrastructure, pay-as-you-go pensions...). So they will either have to fix their fertility rate in a dramatic way, massively reform many of the core institutions of society, or have high immigration & handle it well. [0] https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/jel.49.3.589 https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/jel.49.3.589
- justinzollars 6y agoThe West is in total decline. We are living through the complete collapse of the old order and the values of Western Civilization are being replaced before our very eyes. All of our advantages are being withered away and there is really nothing special about the West. China is confident and is executing a plan to grow very quickly. They have embraced markets and their people are growing wealthy. Personally I'm betting on China to win, my money is there. The Chinese work hard, they produce everything, their government works, their society is united and peaceful and the 21st century is literally theirs to take. What do we have to offer the world? Soy Beans? Scrap metal? A government that doesn't produce results? I have trouble finding a single advantage.
- benjohnson 6y agoI not bullish on the West - it’s being replaced by other cultures quicker than it can adapt. However the West still has a lot to offer the world from mRNA to SpaceX to Seneca. Frankly, China’s success had come from copying western civilization and while the west may not survive, the spark will endure. Just elsewhere.
- kwere 6y agoyeah but they built a nasa clone in 10 years. Till now they have managed to get everithing done on a scale unimaginable for anyone in the west. Our only hope is that hey will collapse from recent overheating of economy and political authoritarianism that is plaguing china from early 2010'
- rory_isAdonk 6y agoCan we get a new a trade deal with China which enforces democratic and labor rights? Otherwise please embargo them for the sake of humanity, shift industry back to the West and forget about them.
- Daho0n 6y agoUh.. Can we get a new a trade deal with the US which enforces democratic and labor rights? Otherwise please embargo them for the sake of humanity, shift industry back to Europe and forget about them. See how insane it sounds? Because it's not like the US is a shining beacon of democracy and worker rights. Sure it's better than China but by how much compared to say Scandinavia? It's all degrees. An Amazon worker looks like someone working under slave-like conditions from where I'm sitting.
- earthboundkid 6y agoI just don't see how the US keeps together. The disconnect between the two sides is, on the one hand, not based on anything concrete. So maybe we can patch it up somehow. Like, before the Civil War, slavery is a real thing with real human and economic effects. Today though, conservatives are mad about what exactly?… It seems like they're mad about a generalized disrespect which the mainstream culture has towards them. And fair enough, they aren't imagining that. But they vent this anger into really bizarre things like trying to keep trans people from using the bathroom and imaginary voter fraud prevention laws. And those are the mainstream, non-conspiracy minded Republican issues! On the other hand though, if there can't be any communication between the two sides, if anyone adopting a position that is popular with 40% of the public makes them a pariah to the other 40%, I just don't see how you can run a country like that. I also don't see any causes on the horizon that would cause the current trend to reverse and for things to become less polarized. So my current best guess is that we are in the quiet period now, things will stew along for the next 2 to 4 years, then Trump will run again or some other crazy thing, and then there will be secession crisis. It doesn't have to happen, but preventing it from happening requires the Republicans to denounce Trump and anyone associated with him, and I don't think they're going to do it. That isn't to say that the Republicans will necessarily be the ones to precipitate the crisis. I think it's pretty much equally likely that Trump/a Trumpist wins and then the blue states decide to leave. I think something like that probably would have happened in 2020 if he had squeaked out another narrow electoral college win, so it could happen in 2024 or 2028 instead.
- kwere 6y agoyeah, blue good, red bad
- earthboundkid 6y agoI can’t tell whether your comment is agreeing or mocking.
- Ancapistani 6y ago> Today though, conservatives are mad about what exactly?… It seems like they're mad about a generalized disrespect which the mainstream culture has towards them. And fair enough, they aren't imagining that. It's a bit more than that. A growing proportion of conservatives see the world very differently than their left-wing counterparts. This is most easily demonstrated at the moment by the fact that 60% of self-identified Republicans believe the election was stolen via voter fraud[1]. Set aside your own beliefs about the specific issue for a moment, and ask yourself: how would you feel if you honestly, truly believed that Trump legitimately won the election? Would your beliefs be strengthened or weakened when the opposition compared the person you believed won the Presidency to Hitler, and their supporters (you) to Nazis[2]? > But they vent this anger into really bizarre things like trying to keep trans people from using the bathroom and imaginary voter fraud prevention laws. And those are the mainstream, non-conspiracy minded Republican issues! You're right. Those issues are politicians pandering to their bases, and emphatically setting themselves on the "hardliner" side of a party that is in turmoil and at risk of fracture. There are other issues that, if pressed, will absolutely unite the GOP and sweep everything else aside. Foremost among those: gun rights. If the Biden administration is successful in moving against firearms - especially if through legislation - the divisions within the GOP will disappear in a heartbeat. > So my current best guess is that we are in the quiet period now, things will stew along for the next 2 to 4 years, then Trump will run again or some other crazy thing, and then there will be secession crisis. I agree. I don't know if Trump will remain relevant, but I see every sign that red states are beginning to seriously consider secession as a possibility. It's an extremely unlikely one today, yes - but it was extremely unlikely in most of the 1850s as well... until it wasn't. 1: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-disinformation-idUSKBN2BS0RZ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-disinformati... 2: https://www.salon.com/2021/04/11/trumps-big-lie-and-hitlers-is-this-how-americas-slide-into-totalitarianism-begins/ https://www.salon.com/2021/04/11/trumps-big-lie-and-hitlers-...
- hardtke 6y agoThere was a similar story about the ascendancy of Japan over the west in the 1980's, but demographics eventually slowed Japan's growth. There were simply not enough young people to keep the economy growing and take care of the growing elderly population. A similar thing is happening with China as many young people chose to not have children or only have a single child. So far in human history this trend towards fewer children in advanced societies is irreversible. The successful parts of the "west" have counterbalanced this trend by attracting and integrating young immigrants (both educated and working class). Unless China becomes a more attractive place for immigrants it is probably nearing its peak potential.
- BigW1lly 6y agoLenin was right. "Capitalists will sell to Communists the rope from which they will hang" That's exactly what is happening right now. USA outsourced much of its production to China (and elsewhere) and essentially handed over supply chain control to China. 80% of medical supplies are exported from China, along with rare earth metals, electronics, etc.
- tim333 6y agoGoogling indicates that he didn't actually say that and I'm not sure they hung many capitalists. There is speculation he was killed by his fellow communitsts though http://www.medicaldiscoverynews.com/shows/299-lenin.html http://www.medicaldiscoverynews.com/shows/299-lenin.html Re China I think sentiment may be turning a little.
- endisneigh 6y agoI wish we (the USA) would take this opportunity to recognize China does some things in certain circumstances better than us and capitalize on that. - Infrastructure (public transportation and high speed rail is far superior in China) - Reproductive rights for women (abortion is available for all women in China) There are others, but it doesn't need to be a battle. China has a ton of issues too (non-free media, Xinjiang situation, an 'end justifies the means' like view on things, lack of direct representation in their "democracy", etc.). We should take the good and reject the bad. All of the posturing is bad for the world at large, I think.
- AnimalMuppet 6y agoReproductive rights? Funny. Yes, they can get an abortion. But there was a time, rather recently, when they literally did not have the right to reproduce.
- endisneigh 6y agoI mean sure yes. There was also a time in the USA where Black people were not even considered a "full" human being.
- jszymborski 6y agoThe only way China wins is if we become them. There's a shocking number of comments here that insinuate or flat-out claim that China's autocratic nature is what their "inevitable success" is due to. If China pulls ahead, it'll be because the West has neglected its democratic values. Valuing profits over people is not a democratic value; it favors the few over the many. It's also, coincidentally, what got us in this mess. The West is hardly in an irreversible decline. It is, however, reckoning with the forces responsible for an ascendant China. It's a painful process, and I can't say what the result is, but I'm confident I do know the way out: a reinforcement of progressive democratic values. When this pandemic ends, we need to work on creating stronger community, greater social equity, and work towards completely ending economic activity in non-democratic countries.
- korethr 6y agoIf certain corners of the Internet oft derided as right-wing whackjob conspiracy theorists are to be believed, not only is China betting that the West is in irreversible decline, but is covertly actively sewing the seeds of the factors driving that collapse.
- greenonions 6y agoYou would have be a fool to think that they aren't. The return on investment from their point of view is clear.
- vgchh 6y agoIt’s a sad but emerging reality. Though if we can trade - corporate-ism for innovation, complacency and entitled-ness for hard work, political brainwashing for issue based activism, gradual progress for leap frogging - I would still bet on America. While it’s a bit late, there is still a chance for America to re-establish itself as the leader. If we don’t wake up for another 5 years, we may indeed be on an irreversible path.
- sleepysysadmin 6y agoMoney = debt. As a society builds its wealth, it builds debt. Japan went through this. They built tremendous levels of debt. Private debt is 200% and their government debt is 250%. Just before their debt problem got out of control their deficit spending made the world think Japan was going to take over the world. https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/JapanTakesOverTheWorld https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/JapanTakesOverTh... The thing is... Japan in the late 80s didnt seem like they had a debt problem because they always do this in a 'debt to gdp' but if your spending also increases gdp. It hides the problem until its a disaster. Now it's china... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-debt-idUSKCN1UD0KD https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-debt-idUSKC... China knows they have this problem. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/26/new-signs-show-that-china-is-cracking-down-on-debt-again.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/26/new-signs-show-that-china-is... That's the problem. China is taking over the world etc but its from 2 factors. 1. They've built their debt to unsustainable levels like Japan. 2. Special economic zones migrating their country to capitalism. Why is China so intent on taking control of Taiwan and Hong Kong for example? They need them to pay their debt problem. Also notice, more and more products are made in Vietnam and other countries. China also has a bit of a slave labour problem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps#Forced_labor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps#Forc... It's not so much a genocide but rather slave labour, the chinese debt problem is so bad that they are only maintaining the status quo because of their slave labour. When does it change? When does it break? May never change. The USSR fell and got rid of their gulags. china may never fall.
- thinker403 6y agoThere's an imbalance with information here, just like there was with the USSR back in the day. The U.S. is an open book that anyone can peer into; China is the opposite. Complicating matters is that the main lens into the U.S. is through 24 hr news orgs that long ago abandoned objectivity for sensationalism. It's easy to conclude something is in decline if all you ever see is perpetual chaos. The reality is, mostly, a lot more chill and nuanced.
- BigW1lly 6y agoThe so called "mainstream" news organizations have completely abandoned objectivity, at least when it comes to politics. They are de facto the propaganda wing of the Democratic party. If you comb through the articles being written, most of them are worded in a way that conveys a favorable position for the Democratic party platform and its politicians.
- BTCOG 6y agoIt's because we're too worried about participation trophies, gender pronouns, and PC garbage culture. It's become petty culture without any spine or backbone, whining about everything instead of doing anything. Minding everyone else's business instead of minding your own. Add to that all the misaligned government spending and cognitive dissonance. Factions upon factions of petty hedonistic groups. I also would not say this is not reversible.
- lamontcg 6y agoThe US economy is led by people who mostly look to create window dressing on profits in order to bail out with a large parachute. And the increasing economic inequality means that attempts to stabilize our economy are captured mostly by the rich, leading to asset bubbles. The asset bubbles means that those in the shrinking middle class are being squeezed out of housing, and with the markets now all serving the upper class and permanently in bubble territory everyone is just chasing after lottery tickets in the economy. Doing a good job and running a company well are naviely old-fashioned values. Everyone just needs to get rich from crypto and that'll save us...
- anthonygd 6y agoIt does seem like a safe bet.
- bruiseralmighty 6y agoI mean the US is going to shit, but it's important to ask: "Compared to what?" Our demographical outlook is actually much better than any other developed nation. China's economy is based on the export of manufacturing goods. We are their main customer. More importantly, we are set up to be their only main customer for the next generation at least due to birth rates. Every other developed nation has had a declining birth-rate while ours grew and then remained stable after the end of WWII. That means that Europe, Russia, and China are all set to become Japan as their populations age out of the workforce. This is the true cost of the 1-child policy and it will reverse their entire economy. China will have to begin importing masses of foreign labor to make up for the shortfall. But the people buying all those goods will either be Americans or their allies in India. Keep in mind that Americans are split 50/50 on whether mass immigration is a good idea or not. China is unified against the idea. They also have far more unmarried young men due to that same policy. If you think we have a racial-supremacist problem in America I invite you to be patient. There is simply no other country rich and populated enough to fund the Chinese manufacturing economy other than the American consumer economy. I agree with the general sentiment that America is in decline, but every other developed nation is set to decline faster than we are. This gives us a relative advantage even if in absolute terms the world is going to shit. China may still come out on top. Their leadership has vision and the political ability to plan more than 2 years in advance (really nice to have in a government), but it will be at least another 20 before they achieve undisputed supremacy.
- rnd0 6y agoWhen you say "Our demographical outlook" what do you mean, and how is it better than other nations?
- bruiseralmighty 6y agoApologies I was referring to the birth-rates I referenced below that sentence. Basically our population pyramid compared to other countries.
- carpedimebagjoe 6y agoEver since about the 1960's-1970's, it has been a slow, gradual frog boiling of American culture, institutions, government, community, and society. Look at all the neighbors and people in public who refuse or don't interact with each other. This was not the case 40 years ago. American socialization with strangers and neighbors was entirely different. Americans barely acknowledge the presence of one-another apart from pointing out microaggressions, espousing conspiracy theories, or berating someone for "how so stupid they are for believing X." At some point, if people don't need or want each other, and don't benefit from the presence of one another, it stops being a civilization and starts being a prison colony where the inmates look to escape. Morris Berman discussed it to a degree in 2000. Bowling Alone by Robert D. Putnam (2000) hinted to it. Heck, there are countries now with restaurants that cater to solo diners. That seems really depressing. The late Chalmers Johnson predicted it convincingly in 2006 and during a few interviews. America: The Farewell Tour by Chris Hedges (2018). When America Stopped Being Great: A History of the Present by Nick Bryant (2021). Most civilizations tend to last an average of 250 years until corruption and other factors causes their effective collapse. I think there is often a combined gradual decline and more sudden decline into effective collapse when civilizations lose their "critical mass" to maintain basic infrastructure and services. There are numerous failed states in the world that perpetually operate on the edge of this condition. Healthy civilizations needs lofty aspirations that don't lead to insolvency. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-08-10/four-reasons-civilization-wont-decline-it-will-collapse/ https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-08-10/four-reasons-c...
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- peter_retief 6y agoI suspect that the Chinese Government are feeling increasingly vulnerable as their citizens become wealthier and begin to question the authority of the communist regime. The west is probably in the best shape it has ever been in if measured in prosperity, freedom and life expectancy.
- arcanon 6y agoIronically, if you are capable of understanding demographics, you know that China is about to have a population collapse and India will overtake it.
- cbHXBY1D 6y agoEconomics and power is not that simple. I'm sure most commenters here know about China's demographics - but it is asinine to think they'll collapse because of an ageing population. That's not how the world works.
- s5300 6y agoThere is some... very strange and unsettling almost paid troll farm like discussion going on in this thread.
- quintaindilemma 6y agoChina might cheer lead itself sometimes by saying that "the West is in irreversible decline" but China itself is going bust economically. Their aging population is an increasing burden, their stock market is a game of shadows almost as cryptic as their local governments' structure. From day to day, the rules change. Unlike Victorian England, which produced a rich culture of laws and economic profundity that continues to grow today, the Chinese model of capitalism has devolved to simple criminal behavior. as happened in Russia. If you want to see decline, watch China carefully.
- eric4smith 6y agoAs someone living in Asia, its clear to see that Asia is the future. Looking back at life in North America, it looks so crude and old fashioned. People are constantly bitching about politics and one party or the other. Karen's are ratting everyone and wanting to see the manager. Is life perfect here? Hell no. But it seems in the west we are fighting over the past instead of fighting over the future.