4 ms·

When it comes to public policy I think it's better to focus on how things turn out in reality rather than how they were intended or designed to turn out.

throw123123123 6y ago
How can you decide what it is going to turn out like without doing it?
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- A4ET8a8uTh0 6y ago
  Well, without standing on one side or the other, humans typically do have tools to attempt to predict potential outcomes. For example, you normally would not put a fork into a socket while telling me you can't decide what to do without doing it. I am not saying analogy is applicable here, but there are some studies suggesting simply 'raising' minimum wage will not work the way some proponents argue.
  - skywal_l 6y ago
    Humans have predicted inflation for years (decades) due to increase in money supply. So human can be wrong sometimes...
    - A4ET8a8uTh0 6y ago
      Sure. There is no denying that. I will only add that the predictions I think you are referring to never made it beyond numbers on a sheet ( bond buying and the like ). Supply increased, economy was stabilized, but money touched main street directly. Still, your main point is valid.
strictnein 6y ago
Correct. And how it turned out is that very, very few people earn minimum wage. In 1979 it was 13.4% In 2017 it was 2.3% In 2017, 1% of workers aged 25 or older earned minimum wage. 8% of working teenagers do. https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2017/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2017/home.htm
- drewrv 6y ago
  Somebody earning pennies more than minimum wage would be excluded from this analysis, despite the fact that they’re earning poverty wages and would benefit from an increase to the minimum wage. > the Congressional Budget Office released its analysis of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021, reporting that increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour would affect 17 million workers who are currently making below that. Another 10 million additional workers earning slightly above $15 per hour would be affected. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/15-minimum-wage-would-benefit-27-million-us-workers-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/15-minimum-wage-would-benefi...
  - strictnein 6y ago
    The data from 1979 would also have those same people who earned just over minimum wage. Of course drastically increasing the minimum wage would affect a bunch of people.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    >, despite the fact that they’re earning poverty wages and would benefit from an increase to the minimum wage. It could lose them their job, or not. You don't know that. Nobody knows that. That's why if you must raise the minimum wage, you do it slowly, step by step.
- skywal_l 6y ago
  From the reports fine prints: "Estimates of the number of minimum wage workers in this report pertain only to workers who are paid hourly rates. Salaried workers and other workers who are not paid by the hour are excluded, even though some have earnings that, if converted to hourly rates, would be at or below the federal minimum wage. Consequently, the estimates presented in this report likely underestimate the actual number of workers with hourly earnings at or below the minimum wage." Could it be that the structure of labor changed since 1979 with more salaried worker at minimum wage?

throw123123123 6y ago

How can you decide what it is going to turn out like without doing it?

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
A4ET8a8uTh0 6y ago
Well, without standing on one side or the other, humans typically do have tools to attempt to predict potential outcomes. For example, you normally would not put a fork into a socket while telling me you can't decide what to do without doing it. I am not saying analogy is applicable here, but there are some studies suggesting simply 'raising' minimum wage will not work the way some proponents argue.
- skywal_l 6y ago
  Humans have predicted inflation for years (decades) due to increase in money supply. So human can be wrong sometimes...
  - A4ET8a8uTh0 6y ago
    Sure. There is no denying that. I will only add that the predictions I think you are referring to never made it beyond numbers on a sheet ( bond buying and the like ). Supply increased, economy was stabilized, but money touched main street directly. Still, your main point is valid.

strictnein 6y ago

Correct. And how it turned out is that very, very few people earn minimum wage. In 1979 it was 13.4% In 2017 it was 2.3% In 2017, 1% of workers aged 25 or older earned minimum wage. 8% of working teenagers do. https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2017/home.htm https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2017/home.htm

drewrv 6y ago
Somebody earning pennies more than minimum wage would be excluded from this analysis, despite the fact that they’re earning poverty wages and would benefit from an increase to the minimum wage. > the Congressional Budget Office released its analysis of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021, reporting that increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour would affect 17 million workers who are currently making below that. Another 10 million additional workers earning slightly above $15 per hour would be affected. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/15-minimum-wage-would-benefit-27-million-us-workers-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/15-minimum-wage-would-benefi...
- strictnein 6y ago
  The data from 1979 would also have those same people who earned just over minimum wage. Of course drastically increasing the minimum wage would affect a bunch of people.
- imtringued 6y ago
  >, despite the fact that they’re earning poverty wages and would benefit from an increase to the minimum wage. It could lose them their job, or not. You don't know that. Nobody knows that. That's why if you must raise the minimum wage, you do it slowly, step by step.
skywal_l 6y ago
From the reports fine prints: "Estimates of the number of minimum wage workers in this report pertain only to workers who are paid hourly rates. Salaried workers and other workers who are not paid by the hour are excluded, even though some have earnings that, if converted to hourly rates, would be at or below the federal minimum wage. Consequently, the estimates presented in this report likely underestimate the actual number of workers with hourly earnings at or below the minimum wage." Could it be that the structure of labor changed since 1979 with more salaried worker at minimum wage?