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Young overweight people are not safe. Young healthy people have never been at risk.

totalZero 6y ago
> Young healthy people have never been at risk. A more accurate way to phrase this is that young non-overweight people are at far less risk than young obese people. It's not true that young healthy people are at no risk. From https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2770542 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...: Among 780969 adults discharged between April 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020, 63103 (8.1%) had the ICD-10 code for COVID-19, of whom 3222 (5%) were nonpregnant young adults (age 18-34 years) admitted to 419 US hospitals. The mean (SD) age of this population was 28.3 (4.4) years; 1849 (57.6%) were men and 1838 (57.0%) were Black or Hispanic. Overall, 1187 (36.8%) had obesity, 789 (24.5%) morbid obesity, 588 (18.2%) diabetes, and 519 (16.1%) hypertension (Table). During hospitalization, 684 patients (21%) required intensive care, 331 (10%) required mechanical ventilation, and 88 (2.7%) died. Vasopressors or inotropes were used for 217 patients (7%), central venous catheters for 283 (9%), and arterial catheters for 192 (6%). The median length of stay was 4 days (interquartile range, 2-7 days). Among those who survived hospitalization, 99 (3%) were discharged to a postacute care facility. Morbid obesity (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.30; 95% CI, 1.77-2.98; vs no obesity; P < .001) and hypertension (adjusted OR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.79-3.12; P < .001) were common and in addition to male sex (adjusted OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.20-1.95; P = .001) were associated with greater risk of death or mechanical ventilation. Odds of death or mechanical ventilation did not vary significantly with race and ethnicity. Morbid obesity was present in 140 patients (41%) who died or required ventilation.
- timr 6y ago
  > of whom 3222 (5%) were nonpregnant young adults (age 18-34 years) admitted to 419 US hospitals. So, 3222 / 780969 = 0.4% of the examined population had admission to a hospital with "Covid" on their forms. Of these, 343 died (0.04% of examined population; Table 1). Obesity, hypertension and diabetes were strongly correlated with death in this population. That's not "no risk", but it's consistent with the OP's comment: the risk for young people is quite low, and is concentrated amongst the obese (and diseases related to obesity).
  - Dylan16807 6y ago
    I don't think "percent of hospital admissions" tells you anything about the risk until you combine it with infection rates.
    - timr 6y ago
      You're right, it doesn't. The study posted by the parent is not trying to make claims about absolute risk to young people -- it's focused on the conditional risk, given that a young person is hospitalized in the first place.
      - Dylan16807 6y ago
        "Conditional on being hospitalized for any reason" gives you an exceptionally useless number. There are many conditions that would give you a usable risk number, but not that one. Just for the obvious extreme example, if I say 0.01% of total hospitalizations are young people with ebola, that doesn't let you conclude anything about whether catching ebola is "quite low risk" for that group.
        timr 6y ago
        > "Conditional on being hospitalized for any reason" gives you an exceptionally useless number. It tells you what to expect if you're a doctor working with hospitalized patients, or if you run a hospital. This is why they did the study. > if I say 0.01% of total hospitalizations are young people with ebola, that doesn't let you conclude anything about whether catching ebola is "quite low risk" for that group. 1) that's not what this study calculated. You still don't understand it. The equivalent study would be "of young people hospitalized with ebola, what percentage of them die?" (and BTW, the answer would be: "a huge percentage of them"...unlike Covid.) 2) They weren't trying to say anything about catching the virus. I understand that you really want to use this paper to make the claim, but it's just not relevant. They took a population of young people hospitalized for Covid, removed the pregnancies, and looked at what happened to the rest. That's it. It doesn't tell you anything about "catching Covid". It does tell you that if you're young and not obese, not diabetic and don't have heart disease, you are overwhelmingly likely not to die from it.
notsuoh 6y ago
This is not true. This is your only comment. Did you create this account just to spread misinformation?

> Young healthy people have never been at risk. A more accurate way to phrase this is that young non-overweight people are at far less risk than young obese people. It's not true that young healthy people are at no risk. From https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2770542 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...: Among 780969 adults discharged between April 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020, 63103 (8.1%) had the ICD-10 code for COVID-19, of whom 3222 (5%) were nonpregnant young adults (age 18-34 years) admitted to 419 US hospitals. The mean (SD) age of this population was 28.3 (4.4) years; 1849 (57.6%) were men and 1838 (57.0%) were Black or Hispanic. Overall, 1187 (36.8%) had obesity, 789 (24.5%) morbid obesity, 588 (18.2%) diabetes, and 519 (16.1%) hypertension (Table). During hospitalization, 684 patients (21%) required intensive care, 331 (10%) required mechanical ventilation, and 88 (2.7%) died. Vasopressors or inotropes were used for 217 patients (7%), central venous catheters for 283 (9%), and arterial catheters for 192 (6%). The median length of stay was 4 days (interquartile range, 2-7 days). Among those who survived hospitalization, 99 (3%) were discharged to a postacute care facility. Morbid obesity (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.30; 95% CI, 1.77-2.98; vs no obesity; P < .001) and hypertension (adjusted OR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.79-3.12; P < .001) were common and in addition to male sex (adjusted OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.20-1.95; P = .001) were associated with greater risk of death or mechanical ventilation. Odds of death or mechanical ventilation did not vary significantly with race and ethnicity. Morbid obesity was present in 140 patients (41%) who died or required ventilation.

timr 6y ago
> of whom 3222 (5%) were nonpregnant young adults (age 18-34 years) admitted to 419 US hospitals. So, 3222 / 780969 = 0.4% of the examined population had admission to a hospital with "Covid" on their forms. Of these, 343 died (0.04% of examined population; Table 1). Obesity, hypertension and diabetes were strongly correlated with death in this population. That's not "no risk", but it's consistent with the OP's comment: the risk for young people is quite low, and is concentrated amongst the obese (and diseases related to obesity).
- Dylan16807 6y ago
  I don't think "percent of hospital admissions" tells you anything about the risk until you combine it with infection rates.
  - timr 6y ago
    You're right, it doesn't. The study posted by the parent is not trying to make claims about absolute risk to young people -- it's focused on the conditional risk, given that a young person is hospitalized in the first place.
    - Dylan16807 6y ago
      "Conditional on being hospitalized for any reason" gives you an exceptionally useless number. There are many conditions that would give you a usable risk number, but not that one. Just for the obvious extreme example, if I say 0.01% of total hospitalizations are young people with ebola, that doesn't let you conclude anything about whether catching ebola is "quite low risk" for that group.
      - timr 6y ago
        > "Conditional on being hospitalized for any reason" gives you an exceptionally useless number. It tells you what to expect if you're a doctor working with hospitalized patients, or if you run a hospital. This is why they did the study. > if I say 0.01% of total hospitalizations are young people with ebola, that doesn't let you conclude anything about whether catching ebola is "quite low risk" for that group. 1) that's not what this study calculated. You still don't understand it. The equivalent study would be "of young people hospitalized with ebola, what percentage of them die?" (and BTW, the answer would be: "a huge percentage of them"...unlike Covid.) 2) They weren't trying to say anything about catching the virus. I understand that you really want to use this paper to make the claim, but it's just not relevant. They took a population of young people hospitalized for Covid, removed the pregnancies, and looked at what happened to the rest. That's it. It doesn't tell you anything about "catching Covid". It does tell you that if you're young and not obese, not diabetic and don't have heart disease, you are overwhelmingly likely not to die from it.

notsuoh 6y ago

This is not true. This is your only comment. Did you create this account just to spread misinformation?