7 ms·

Tesla Q1 2021 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

61 points by marc__1 6y ago

the_duke 6y ago
No increase over Q4 2020. Has Tesla stated a production goal for 2021? It should be noted that the S/X production lines have been partially offline in Q1 while refitting for the model refresh. I also wonder if Tesla is impacted by the supply chain issues hammering a lot of the other automakers.
- marc__1 6y ago
  I believe they don't have yearly production goals, but Musk has stated that they aim at growing at 50% over the long-term [1]. These are some snippets for short-term forecasting from Tesla Q4 Earnings: 'Over the past few weeks, we have been upgrading our Freemont Factory to launch the new Model S and Model X' 'Gaga Shanghai has demonstrated the ability to sustain Model 3 production at or above a run rate of 250,000/year' [1]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.... [2]https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_Update_Deck_-_Searchable_LVA2GL.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q4-2020-Update.pdf%22 https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_...
- agumonkey 6y ago
  I don't follow this closely but somehow I'm not surprised the growth is flat, it seemed to me that they were expanding production in many countries so energy went into that until it ramps up aggressively when factories are done (hopefully lessons were learned so it's gonna be a smooth ride).
  - w0m 6y ago
    year over year is much more indicative than quarter-over-quarter.
- cowmix 6y ago
  Q1 sales are always lower than the previous Q4.
- Symmetry 6y ago
  I'd assume that in terms of automakers affected by bottlenecks at TSMC Tesla would be the most impacted.
  - m463 6y ago
    I wonder about that. Tesla might be an electronic (as well as electric) car, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were fewer subsystems and fewer chips overall.
    - Symmetry 6y ago
      I'd expect most car electronics to be on fairly old process nodes, 90nm or something like that. It's mostly the Tesla "Full Self Driving" stuff that I'd expect to be on a leading-ish edge node and also have a decent area.
- dakial1 6y ago
  Due to market seasonality you shouldn't compare the quarter with the previous one. It would be more accurate to compare Q121 with Q120. In that comparison they increased almost 80%
- 147 6y ago
  They usually state production goals but didn't for 2021. I'm pretty sure internally they're aiming for a million delivered this year. Also the fact that Q1 beat Q4 is quite the feat since the S/X lines are down and Q1 is a terrible quarter for automakers.
jermaustin1 6y ago
How does this compare with the EVs made by the "traditional" auto makers (Ford, GM, VW, Toyota, etc.)?
- alexlmiller 6y ago
  Tesla dwarfs everybody else combined: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/08/2020-us-electric-vehicle-sales-report/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/08/2020-us-electric-vehicl...
  - tonfa 6y ago
    Worldwide data: https://cleantechnica.com/files/2021/02/World-plugin-vehicle-sales-top-automakers-2020-CleanTechnica.png https://cleantechnica.com/files/2021/02/World-plugin-vehicle... VW is pretty impressive, did they have any popular electric vehicle before last year? edit: Yes, they have a massive growth indeed, if they continue like that they'll likely overtake tesla already this year: https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1130931_vw-group-sold-almost-half-as-many-evs-as-tesla-in-2020-and-it-s-just-getting-warmed-up https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1130931_vw-group-sold-al...
    - IdiocyInAction 6y ago
      VW has the ID.3 and ID.4 in Europe, which are fairly successful.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
    - foepys 6y ago
      VW plans to produce 1.5 million EVs per year ~in their Zwickau plant~ worldwide from 2025 onwards. They are also evaluating more plants to switch to full EV production. Tesla expects to make 500.000 cars per year in their German plant they are currently building. Edit: 330.00 in Zwickau, 1.5 million world-wide.
NiekvdMaas 6y ago
This is incredible, Q1 is usually a very slow quarter. Tesla beat Q4 production numbers even though S/X production lines were down for the whole quarter and CNY slowed production in China last Q. YoY production growth: +76% YoY deliveries growth: +109%
impostervt 6y ago
So I know it has little to do with the numbers, but I just got a Model 3 this last weekend. Originally I was quoted as 2-14 weeks for delivery, but then I was told they had some already available I could select and receive within 2 weeks. There was one available that was exactly the same as what I wanted, so I chose it. Why I had to even choose is weird. The whole process has spoiled me. Scheduled test drive, financing done online completely (omg that used to take forever to do in person), no annoying sales guy to work with (just ordered online), delivered right to my house. The car is also fun to drive. I haven't had a new car in 20 years, and driving was just a chore. But now I look forward to driving it, even on my commute to/from work. It has been weird getting used to how EVERYTHING is different from a normal car, but again, I'm not sure I can go back.
- w0m 6y ago
  The process is annoying (2-15w wait) but better than haggling with sales guy for 4h in the middle of the workday. Also the cars tend to be fun to drive. I miss my stick shift, but much better carseat space.
  - jermaustin1 6y ago
    Or you end up like me on Christmas Eve 2019 picking out the truck you want, sitting with the sales person for 3 hours even though I'm not haggling, and I offered to pay what they put on the sticker. I said, I want to be in and out in 30 minutes. And now, here I am April 2, 2021. The vehicle is still untitled, unregistered, and basically a paperweight sitting in my driveway, because the sales guy screwed the paperwork up so badly, that the DMV cannot make heads nor tails of it. The bank is constantly hounding me for a title, I tell them to talk to the dealership, they say to talk to the DMV, and over a year later, I've been paying $800/mo for a car and insurance I cannot even use.
    - gradys 6y ago
      Seems like you should sue?
Black101 6y ago
> Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more.
11thEarlOfMar 6y ago
Regarding competition, it appears that Tesla has 15% market share in the 8 European countries in this report[0]. The article cites 108 different models available (a number only sold a handful of units). The Model 3 is the leader, and Model Y doesn't appear yet, but there certainly appears to be a lot of competition. Overall BEV sales remain a small % of total automobile sales, but with this number of models in production, the competitive landscape could modulate quite a bit from quarter to quarter. On the one hand, Tesla is going to need to address this competition at some point, likely sooner than we imagine. On the other hand, this is exactly the outcome Musk wanted to see: Getting the major incumbents to commit to BEV product lines and developing a serious transitional market. [0] https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/06/top-electric-models-in-8-european-countries-in-february-108-models-ranked/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/06/top-electric-models-in-...
- rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
  >Tesla is going to need to address this competition at some point They're building a factory in Berlin already, they're importing as many cars from China and the US as they can, and they're selling everything they make. What else do they need to do?
  - 11thEarlOfMar 6y ago
    Marketing/Advertising. The competitors have salespersons who use disinformation and misleading claims to close sales using typical pressure tactics. Tesla needs to inform the market more aggressively about the benefits vs. the other brands. This is an extreme example of how Audi is marketing vs. Tesla. No mention that the eTron is more than 2x the cost of the Model 3. Or that there is a long range Model 3 with 325 mile range. Or any justification for comparing eTron, an SUV, to Model 3 instead of Model X. https://www.audifrederick.com/compare/audi-e-tron-vs-tesla-model-3.htm https://www.audifrederick.com/compare/audi-e-tron-vs-tesla-m...

61 points by marc__1 6y ago

No increase over Q4 2020. Has Tesla stated a production goal for 2021? It should be noted that the S/X production lines have been partially offline in Q1 while refitting for the model refresh. I also wonder if Tesla is impacted by the supply chain issues hammering a lot of the other automakers.

marc__1 6y ago
I believe they don't have yearly production goals, but Musk has stated that they aim at growing at 50% over the long-term [1]. These are some snippets for short-term forecasting from Tesla Q4 Earnings: 'Over the past few weeks, we have been upgrading our Freemont Factory to launch the new Model S and Model X' 'Gaga Shanghai has demonstrated the ability to sustain Model 3 production at or above a run rate of 250,000/year' [1]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.... [2]https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_Update_Deck_-_Searchable_LVA2GL.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q4-2020-Update.pdf%22 https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/1LRLZK_2020_Q4_Quarterly_...
agumonkey 6y ago
I don't follow this closely but somehow I'm not surprised the growth is flat, it seemed to me that they were expanding production in many countries so energy went into that until it ramps up aggressively when factories are done (hopefully lessons were learned so it's gonna be a smooth ride).
- w0m 6y ago
  year over year is much more indicative than quarter-over-quarter.
cowmix 6y ago
Q1 sales are always lower than the previous Q4.
Symmetry 6y ago
I'd assume that in terms of automakers affected by bottlenecks at TSMC Tesla would be the most impacted.
- m463 6y ago
  I wonder about that. Tesla might be an electronic (as well as electric) car, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were fewer subsystems and fewer chips overall.
  - Symmetry 6y ago
    I'd expect most car electronics to be on fairly old process nodes, 90nm or something like that. It's mostly the Tesla "Full Self Driving" stuff that I'd expect to be on a leading-ish edge node and also have a decent area.
dakial1 6y ago
Due to market seasonality you shouldn't compare the quarter with the previous one. It would be more accurate to compare Q121 with Q120. In that comparison they increased almost 80%
147 6y ago
They usually state production goals but didn't for 2021. I'm pretty sure internally they're aiming for a million delivered this year. Also the fact that Q1 beat Q4 is quite the feat since the S/X lines are down and Q1 is a terrible quarter for automakers.

jermaustin1 6y ago

How does this compare with the EVs made by the "traditional" auto makers (Ford, GM, VW, Toyota, etc.)?

alexlmiller 6y ago
Tesla dwarfs everybody else combined: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/08/2020-us-electric-vehicle-sales-report/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/08/2020-us-electric-vehicl...
- tonfa 6y ago
  Worldwide data: https://cleantechnica.com/files/2021/02/World-plugin-vehicle-sales-top-automakers-2020-CleanTechnica.png https://cleantechnica.com/files/2021/02/World-plugin-vehicle... VW is pretty impressive, did they have any popular electric vehicle before last year? edit: Yes, they have a massive growth indeed, if they continue like that they'll likely overtake tesla already this year: https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1130931_vw-group-sold-almost-half-as-many-evs-as-tesla-in-2020-and-it-s-just-getting-warmed-up https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1130931_vw-group-sold-al...
  - IdiocyInAction 6y ago
    VW has the ID.3 and ID.4 in Europe, which are fairly successful.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - foepys 6y ago
    VW plans to produce 1.5 million EVs per year ~in their Zwickau plant~ worldwide from 2025 onwards. They are also evaluating more plants to switch to full EV production. Tesla expects to make 500.000 cars per year in their German plant they are currently building. Edit: 330.00 in Zwickau, 1.5 million world-wide.

NiekvdMaas 6y ago

This is incredible, Q1 is usually a very slow quarter. Tesla beat Q4 production numbers even though S/X production lines were down for the whole quarter and CNY slowed production in China last Q. YoY production growth: +76% YoY deliveries growth: +109%

impostervt 6y ago

So I know it has little to do with the numbers, but I just got a Model 3 this last weekend. Originally I was quoted as 2-14 weeks for delivery, but then I was told they had some already available I could select and receive within 2 weeks. There was one available that was exactly the same as what I wanted, so I chose it. Why I had to even choose is weird. The whole process has spoiled me. Scheduled test drive, financing done online completely (omg that used to take forever to do in person), no annoying sales guy to work with (just ordered online), delivered right to my house. The car is also fun to drive. I haven't had a new car in 20 years, and driving was just a chore. But now I look forward to driving it, even on my commute to/from work. It has been weird getting used to how EVERYTHING is different from a normal car, but again, I'm not sure I can go back.

w0m 6y ago
The process is annoying (2-15w wait) but better than haggling with sales guy for 4h in the middle of the workday. Also the cars tend to be fun to drive. I miss my stick shift, but much better carseat space.
- jermaustin1 6y ago
  Or you end up like me on Christmas Eve 2019 picking out the truck you want, sitting with the sales person for 3 hours even though I'm not haggling, and I offered to pay what they put on the sticker. I said, I want to be in and out in 30 minutes. And now, here I am April 2, 2021. The vehicle is still untitled, unregistered, and basically a paperweight sitting in my driveway, because the sales guy screwed the paperwork up so badly, that the DMV cannot make heads nor tails of it. The bank is constantly hounding me for a title, I tell them to talk to the dealership, they say to talk to the DMV, and over a year later, I've been paying $800/mo for a car and insurance I cannot even use.
  - gradys 6y ago
    Seems like you should sue?

Black101 6y ago

> Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more.

11thEarlOfMar 6y ago

Regarding competition, it appears that Tesla has 15% market share in the 8 European countries in this report[0]. The article cites 108 different models available (a number only sold a handful of units). The Model 3 is the leader, and Model Y doesn't appear yet, but there certainly appears to be a lot of competition. Overall BEV sales remain a small % of total automobile sales, but with this number of models in production, the competitive landscape could modulate quite a bit from quarter to quarter. On the one hand, Tesla is going to need to address this competition at some point, likely sooner than we imagine. On the other hand, this is exactly the outcome Musk wanted to see: Getting the major incumbents to commit to BEV product lines and developing a serious transitional market. [0] https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/06/top-electric-models-in-8-european-countries-in-february-108-models-ranked/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/06/top-electric-models-in-...

rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
>Tesla is going to need to address this competition at some point They're building a factory in Berlin already, they're importing as many cars from China and the US as they can, and they're selling everything they make. What else do they need to do?
- 11thEarlOfMar 6y ago
  Marketing/Advertising. The competitors have salespersons who use disinformation and misleading claims to close sales using typical pressure tactics. Tesla needs to inform the market more aggressively about the benefits vs. the other brands. This is an extreme example of how Audi is marketing vs. Tesla. No mention that the eTron is more than 2x the cost of the Model 3. Or that there is a long range Model 3 with 325 mile range. Or any justification for comparing eTron, an SUV, to Model 3 instead of Model X. https://www.audifrederick.com/compare/audi-e-tron-vs-tesla-model-3.htm https://www.audifrederick.com/compare/audi-e-tron-vs-tesla-m...