7 ms·

I think that is going to depend on your definition of "significant". I think at best we would have similar numbers to Israel right now by then. That would still

by jsight 6y ago

I think that is going to depend on your definition of "significant". I think at best we would have similar numbers to Israel right now by then. That would still represent >250 deaths per day. (EDIT: If there is some reason that our rates will fall more quickly, I'd love to hear it.)

therealdrag0 6y ago
Seems about right. Israel appears to have twice the percentage of their population vaccinated and half the death rate compared to US. Current deaths in US is ~900/d, so half that is ~450. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=vaccinePeople&data-source=owid&xaxis=right-12wk&extra=Israel&extraData=deaths-daily-7&extraDataScale=separately#countries-normalized http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countri...
chmod600 6y ago
That's on the order of a bad flu season, right? So not enough that it should affect our behavior in major ways. The argument for our lifestyle changes was always to "slow the spread" or "bend the curve". It seems we've done that about as well as we can.
- jsight 6y ago
  I think that would still that would still be 40% or more higher than our worst flu season? Its definitely getting into the same order of magnitude at that point, though. It'd be hard to argue for stringent lockdowns, IMO.
  - wizzwizz4 6y ago
    That's the with-lockdowns rate, is it not? The without-lockdowns rate would be much higher.
    - azernik 6y ago
      Current Israeli death rates are with some social distancing measures, but nowhere near lockdown. They're having concerts and (vaccinated-people-only) indoor dining.
      - drcross 6y ago
        Wait until you hear about Florida and Texas.
        azernik 6y ago
        But with much higher infection and fatality rates, because that is not a good idea without mass vaccination.
        tjs8rj 6y ago
        Texas and Florida deaths per day are under 100
        disgruntledphd2 6y ago
        Note that deaths are a very lagging indicator. Here in Ireland we have a massive spike at Christmas, and some of the people infected then are still dying.
        chmod600 6y ago
        Florida schools have been open since August.
        disgruntledphd2 6y ago
        Yeah, it does appear that relative to other activities, schools are less risky. France appear to be having issues though, and apparently that's related to schools. The UK numbers have stopped decreasing since they re-opened schools, but that could be due to the B.1.7 variant.
  - ummonk 6y ago
    Once every adult has had the chance to get vaccinated, there is no reasonable argument for lockdowns.
    - thinkcontext 6y ago
      Sure there is, there could be new variants that the vaccines don't protect against. The criteria for the various levels of reopening were set at the beginning. Those are what should determine the reopening according to public health experts.
      - tjs8rj 6y ago
        Surely you understand there are more considerations than just what public health experts say right? They are a part of the answer, not the whole.
      - ummonk 6y ago
        The vaccines have proven highly effective at protecting against COVID and its highly transmissible variants, and it's unlikely that we'll see a new variant arise that exhibits sufficient immune escape to result in severe infections in vaccinated people. The criteria for the various levels of reopening at the beginning were due the need to protect vulnerable people who did not have the opportunity to magically protect themselves by getting vaccinated.
- noahtallen 6y ago
  The other aspect is that negative side effects are much more prevalent with COVID. So keeping cases down is still important
  - sharken 6y ago
    But how widespread are the negative side effects, do you have data on this ?
    - ttesttom 6y ago
      There have been a bunch of studies that have come out, with a range of quality in case selection methodology eg. biased sampling, so its still early days. I've seen estimates ranging from 2% - 33% for effects up to 7 months after infection for mild-moderate symptomatic cases. But generally, it seems quite a serious issue. This is a good review on whats out there: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01283-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01283-z
stjohnswarts 6y ago
There is absolutely no way we will get vaccine update like Israel, there are far too many antivaxxers in the states for that to happen. They will just catch it sometime between now and year's end I will guess.
- reissbaker 6y ago
  Israel had a fair number of antivaxxers, as well as people who aren't quite antivaxxers but are very wary of vaccination. The "green passport" (proof of vaccination that is required to take part in much of normal life there currently) has been doing a decent job of fixing that... Although I'm skeptical that the US will follow suit to the same degree.
- jsight 6y ago
  I think Israel is kind of plateuing at around ~55% of the population vaccinated? I'm sure it will continue to increase, but the rate of increase seems to be slowing. I'm not seeing much evidence that the US will stay lower than that.

by jsight 6y ago

therealdrag0 6y ago

Seems about right. Israel appears to have twice the percentage of their population vaccinated and half the death rate compared to US. Current deaths in US is ~900/d, so half that is ~450. http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=United%20States&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=vaccinePeople&data-source=owid&xaxis=right-12wk&extra=Israel&extraData=deaths-daily-7&extraDataScale=separately#countries-normalized http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countri...

chmod600 6y ago

That's on the order of a bad flu season, right? So not enough that it should affect our behavior in major ways. The argument for our lifestyle changes was always to "slow the spread" or "bend the curve". It seems we've done that about as well as we can.

jsight 6y ago
I think that would still that would still be 40% or more higher than our worst flu season? Its definitely getting into the same order of magnitude at that point, though. It'd be hard to argue for stringent lockdowns, IMO.
- wizzwizz4 6y ago
  That's the with-lockdowns rate, is it not? The without-lockdowns rate would be much higher.
  - azernik 6y ago
    Current Israeli death rates are with some social distancing measures, but nowhere near lockdown. They're having concerts and (vaccinated-people-only) indoor dining.
    - drcross 6y ago
      Wait until you hear about Florida and Texas.
      - azernik 6y ago
        But with much higher infection and fatality rates, because that is not a good idea without mass vaccination.
      - tjs8rj 6y ago
        Texas and Florida deaths per day are under 100
        disgruntledphd2 6y ago
        Note that deaths are a very lagging indicator. Here in Ireland we have a massive spike at Christmas, and some of the people infected then are still dying.
        chmod600 6y ago
        Florida schools have been open since August.
        disgruntledphd2 6y ago
        Yeah, it does appear that relative to other activities, schools are less risky. France appear to be having issues though, and apparently that's related to schools. The UK numbers have stopped decreasing since they re-opened schools, but that could be due to the B.1.7 variant.
- ummonk 6y ago
  Once every adult has had the chance to get vaccinated, there is no reasonable argument for lockdowns.
  - thinkcontext 6y ago
    Sure there is, there could be new variants that the vaccines don't protect against. The criteria for the various levels of reopening were set at the beginning. Those are what should determine the reopening according to public health experts.
    - tjs8rj 6y ago
      Surely you understand there are more considerations than just what public health experts say right? They are a part of the answer, not the whole.
    - ummonk 6y ago
      The vaccines have proven highly effective at protecting against COVID and its highly transmissible variants, and it's unlikely that we'll see a new variant arise that exhibits sufficient immune escape to result in severe infections in vaccinated people. The criteria for the various levels of reopening at the beginning were due the need to protect vulnerable people who did not have the opportunity to magically protect themselves by getting vaccinated.
noahtallen 6y ago
The other aspect is that negative side effects are much more prevalent with COVID. So keeping cases down is still important
- sharken 6y ago
  But how widespread are the negative side effects, do you have data on this ?
  - ttesttom 6y ago
    There have been a bunch of studies that have come out, with a range of quality in case selection methodology eg. biased sampling, so its still early days. I've seen estimates ranging from 2% - 33% for effects up to 7 months after infection for mild-moderate symptomatic cases. But generally, it seems quite a serious issue. This is a good review on whats out there: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01283-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01283-z

stjohnswarts 6y ago

There is absolutely no way we will get vaccine update like Israel, there are far too many antivaxxers in the states for that to happen. They will just catch it sometime between now and year's end I will guess.

reissbaker 6y ago
Israel had a fair number of antivaxxers, as well as people who aren't quite antivaxxers but are very wary of vaccination. The "green passport" (proof of vaccination that is required to take part in much of normal life there currently) has been doing a decent job of fixing that... Although I'm skeptical that the US will follow suit to the same degree.
jsight 6y ago
I think Israel is kind of plateuing at around ~55% of the population vaccinated? I'm sure it will continue to increase, but the rate of increase seems to be slowing. I'm not seeing much evidence that the US will stay lower than that.