8 ms·

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP lead

by hawk_ 6y ago

If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to stop other countries from getting involved on various grounds. Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support.

Kinrany 6y ago
I don't think they had or needed substantial local support in Crimea. A bunch of zealots will do.
- kelnos 6y ago
  I think you'd be hard pressed to find even a "bunch" of people in Taiwan who want to be under Beijing's rule, or would even consider that a tolerable compromise position. Certainly the country is far from unified on the idea of independence (though that particular movement has gotten stronger over the past couple decades), but culturally and politically, China and Taiwan are quite different and incompatible.
  - BingoAhoy 6y ago
    From my second hand laymen sources, there are in fact pro China advocates in Tiawan. Also surprisingly enough, there was a sizable loyalist group in the American 13 colonies who supported continued British colonialism.
    - neolog 6y ago
      Wonder if they're from Taiwan, or were deployed there by Chinese government.
    - tialaramex 6y ago
      One obvious reason to support the British is that the British don't have slavery. Sure enough, those slaves who fought for the British and were evacuated with British troops became free men. Fighting for the colonists genuinely could mean you won, and then they said that's great, now back to the fields 'cos you won freedom for us not for you. Your great grandchildren might see freedom (after the Civil War) but you would not.
      - slowmovintarget 6y ago
        I'm not sure what history books you are reading, but Britain did, in fact, have slavery, and traded in slaves during the American Revolution. Trade of slaves was not outlawed in Britain until 1807 and ownership of slaves was not outlawed in Britain until 1833.
        tialaramex 6y ago
        History books about things that happened rather than, say, squinting hard to rationalise unhappy truths? Britain didn't have slavery†. The 1833 act abolishes slavery in the Colonies, not in Britain itself. The existence of slavery in the colonies is why there were slaves in America to seek freedom by fighting for the British there. So like I said, the British freed those on their side, while the colonists unsurprisingly did not do likewise. This is a recorded motivation for the thing we're talking about, fighting for the British in the revolutionary war. †Britain didn't have chattel slavery, which is what we're talking about here, but it did have serfdom - which today we would consider a type of slavery - until the late middle ages or so when it ceased to make economic sense.
        whoooooo123 6y ago
        Another fun fact (I'm full of them today): while chattel slavery has never existed at a meaningful level in Britain, the specific act of holding someone in slavery wasn't technically made illegal here until 2009: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coroners_and_Justice_Act_2009 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coroners_and_Justice_Act_200...
        6y ago
    - kelnos 6y ago
      Sure, you're not going to find everyone having the same opinion on something, but it's hard to compare Crimea, which has a sizeable pro-Russia population, possibly even a majority, with Taiwan, with only some smaller fringe groups wanting to reunify with China on Beijing's terms. And that's also a point to consider: there are some people in Taiwan who want to reunify, but not anywhere near under the terms Beijing would impose. You could call those people "pro unification", but they're very very different from people who would accept Chinese rule as it is now.
- anonporridge 6y ago
  A minority of zealots are usually all that's required.
- MrRiddle 6y ago
  Crimean population is overwhelmingly Russian, and most of them were for joining Russia.
aphextron 6y ago
>Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. Although very much like Crimea, there will be practically zero popular appetite for igniting an open war between two nuclear armed nation states. We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution, but I would strongly doubt that military action will be responded to in kind by the west. A much more likely scenario is what we've seen play out in Hong Kong for the last 30 years.
- javert 6y ago
  > We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested. I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.
  - Flatcircle 6y ago
    Nuclear powers don't really have kinetic wars. I think the only one that happened was a small skirmish between India and Pakistan in 1999. The Kargil War. Proxy wars are more likely. And even more likely than that, would be severe economic sanctions. Which in this instance would hit home to many more Americans than an actual war. If the invasion of Taiwan set in motion a series of escalating sanctions and freezes in trade, well that could get much worse than people think. A chain reaction of unseen consequences.
  - aphextron 6y ago
    >"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as they commit massive genocide in their own country.
    - riku_iki 6y ago
      > we will sit here and watch I think there will be very significant economic escalation. US + EU and probably some local countries (India, Vietnam Indonesia) will just ban all Chinese trade, maybe force Japan and SK do the same. China may get some Taiwanese fabs, but it's only single cell in supply chain, and may be rendered useless without integration into global economy.
pulse7 6y ago
There are many pro-China people living in Taiwan. So there is local support...
- hawk_ 6y ago
  Didn't get that feeling on my travels there pre 2015. Not sure why that could have changed drastically since.
- tlibert 6y ago
  Electoral results speak conclusively to their relatively small numbers.
- scpedicini 6y ago
  Anecdotal, but I lived in Taiwan for several years and never met anyone who was even remotely pro-CCP.
  - justicezyx 6y ago
    Just like you won't see any trump supporters, pun intended, right?
    - gspr 6y ago
      What's the pun here?
      - justicezyx 6y ago
        Of course there are trump supporters and CCP supporters. Dummy...
  - Anon1096 6y ago
    They mostly live in Southern Taiwan, so I wouldn't be surprised if foreigners (and many Taiwanese natives as well) don't regularly see pro-CCP Taiwanese citizens.
  - franknine 6y ago
lmilcin 6y ago
Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine. No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest country that recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala. I don't see how it is out of the question that China just sails to Taiwan and takes it while everybody else stands and watches.
- vehementi 6y ago
  There's recognizing and "recognizing". Everyone knows Taiwan is a separate country. But for political reasons (helping China save face, keep making money from China) they don't openly acknowledge it. It's totally different from Crimea situation.
  - lmilcin 6y ago
    Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.
    - dfjgkl43 6y ago
      If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...
      - FpUser 6y ago
        Heavily armed Taiwan can make China think twice before launching full scale attack. The US also makes money on those arms sales. And Taiwan can keep producing chips. And sell some of those chips to China for mutual benefit. Win win so far. However if for whatever reasons China would go full scale on Taiwan I doubt the US would respond in kind. There is just too much risk of conflict turning into WWIII. The West may try to isolate China instead.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
sneak 6y ago
The anti-China rhetoric and propaganda in the USA has been steadily ramping up over the last 3-5 years as well, for better or worse. I don't think this is an accident or happenstance. If China decided to take Taiwan in a small and local (and, let's be honest: extremely quick) action, there would be broad domestic support in the US for the US interfering.
- Simulacra 6y ago
  This is why Taiwan should have nuclear weapons.
- nxc18 6y ago
  Will Americans perceive that or will they see it as more foreign adventurism a la the Middle East to defend people that aren’t Americans in a hopeless forever war quagmire? And do Americans take that threat seriously enough to put actual lives on the line in a conflict that would incur serious costs to the US? We spent a lot of money in the Middle East, but in terms of lives lost it hasn’t been significant. And in terms of economic impact, it would be devastating. I don’t know if Americans are prepared to go for years without electronics, or really anything else, to enable a protracted war. The stakes would be far greater for the US. And the cost to China is coming down with their emphasis on internal consumption and building a stable self-reliant economy. Americans don’t like China, but not enough to not use TikTok, not enough to not buy Chinese, and certainly not enough to send their friends and family to die while they live through a massive economic recession and product shortages that make covid look like a joke. And that’s assuming Americans fully understand the politics in the region and why they should even care about China invading Taiwan, which feels like a big assumption considering (the more hawkish) half of the population will tell you our election was stolen by the party currently in power.
- gspr 6y ago
  > The anti-China rhetoric and propaganda in the USA has been steadily ramping up over the last 3-5 years as well, for better or worse. I don't think this is an accident or happenstance. Yeah, it's really strange that negative rhetoric has been ramping up against a government that is now running full-blown ethnic concentration camps in Xinjiang, is flagrantly stomping on the democratic rights of the people of Hong Kong, and is of course still completely ignoring its own citizens' human rights. Really strange.
thrwawy8739385 6y ago
China has squashed the virus, its placing a major emphasis on consumption, its navy now rivals the US. Taiwan is home to the largest semiconductor fab in the world and there is a worldwide shortage of semiconductors. Other countries around the world are struggling to get the virus under control and they are dealing with stuttering economies. The US is in the midst of a culture war where nobody can agree over economics vs virus protection or interventionism vs isolationism. The dollar is in a shaky position between massive stimulus and the increasing interest in crypto. I’d say China sees this as their best opportunity to make a move with little opposition.
f6v 6y ago
> Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. As a crimean, I find the way you write “Crimea wanted to become part of Russia” extremely funny.
- hawk_ 6y ago
  My bad but that's the impression I have had from international media. Russian forces didn't face any significant resitance and the local russian speaking population wasn't too keen on continuing with Ukraine. Happy to hear from a crimean what really went down.
  - fragsworth 6y ago
    The news we got could have had more to do with the international community trying to save face and spreading a narrative, rather than a large number of actual locals wanting to be part of Russia.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    There were also opinion polls done by Western polling firms that showed majority support for joining Russia. And Ukraine responded by cutting off the region's electricity supply, so presumably support for them fell after that.
  - f6v 6y ago
    I meant that you can hardly call Russia an “aggressor” when the locals have been dreaming of becoming part of Russia since 1991. Also aggressor doesn’t invest into education, healthcare and overall quality of life.
- everybodyknows 6y ago
  Western news outlets had local attitudes split by ethnicity: Tatar, historically Ukrainian, and Soviet-era Russian immigrants. Was this off the mark?

by hawk_ 6y ago

Kinrany 6y ago

I don't think they had or needed substantial local support in Crimea. A bunch of zealots will do.

kelnos 6y ago
I think you'd be hard pressed to find even a "bunch" of people in Taiwan who want to be under Beijing's rule, or would even consider that a tolerable compromise position. Certainly the country is far from unified on the idea of independence (though that particular movement has gotten stronger over the past couple decades), but culturally and politically, China and Taiwan are quite different and incompatible.
- BingoAhoy 6y ago
  From my second hand laymen sources, there are in fact pro China advocates in Tiawan. Also surprisingly enough, there was a sizable loyalist group in the American 13 colonies who supported continued British colonialism.
  - neolog 6y ago
    Wonder if they're from Taiwan, or were deployed there by Chinese government.
  - tialaramex 6y ago
    One obvious reason to support the British is that the British don't have slavery. Sure enough, those slaves who fought for the British and were evacuated with British troops became free men. Fighting for the colonists genuinely could mean you won, and then they said that's great, now back to the fields 'cos you won freedom for us not for you. Your great grandchildren might see freedom (after the Civil War) but you would not.
    - slowmovintarget 6y ago
      I'm not sure what history books you are reading, but Britain did, in fact, have slavery, and traded in slaves during the American Revolution. Trade of slaves was not outlawed in Britain until 1807 and ownership of slaves was not outlawed in Britain until 1833.
      - tialaramex 6y ago
        History books about things that happened rather than, say, squinting hard to rationalise unhappy truths? Britain didn't have slavery†. The 1833 act abolishes slavery in the Colonies, not in Britain itself. The existence of slavery in the colonies is why there were slaves in America to seek freedom by fighting for the British there. So like I said, the British freed those on their side, while the colonists unsurprisingly did not do likewise. This is a recorded motivation for the thing we're talking about, fighting for the British in the revolutionary war. †Britain didn't have chattel slavery, which is what we're talking about here, but it did have serfdom - which today we would consider a type of slavery - until the late middle ages or so when it ceased to make economic sense.
        whoooooo123 6y ago
        Another fun fact (I'm full of them today): while chattel slavery has never existed at a meaningful level in Britain, the specific act of holding someone in slavery wasn't technically made illegal here until 2009: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coroners_and_Justice_Act_2009 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coroners_and_Justice_Act_200...
        6y ago
  - kelnos 6y ago
    Sure, you're not going to find everyone having the same opinion on something, but it's hard to compare Crimea, which has a sizeable pro-Russia population, possibly even a majority, with Taiwan, with only some smaller fringe groups wanting to reunify with China on Beijing's terms. And that's also a point to consider: there are some people in Taiwan who want to reunify, but not anywhere near under the terms Beijing would impose. You could call those people "pro unification", but they're very very different from people who would accept Chinese rule as it is now.
anonporridge 6y ago
A minority of zealots are usually all that's required.
MrRiddle 6y ago
Crimean population is overwhelmingly Russian, and most of them were for joining Russia.

aphextron 6y ago

>Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. Although very much like Crimea, there will be practically zero popular appetite for igniting an open war between two nuclear armed nation states. We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution, but I would strongly doubt that military action will be responded to in kind by the west. A much more likely scenario is what we've seen play out in Hong Kong for the last 30 years.

javert 6y ago
> We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested. I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.
- Flatcircle 6y ago
  Nuclear powers don't really have kinetic wars. I think the only one that happened was a small skirmish between India and Pakistan in 1999. The Kargil War. Proxy wars are more likely. And even more likely than that, would be severe economic sanctions. Which in this instance would hit home to many more Americans than an actual war. If the invasion of Taiwan set in motion a series of escalating sanctions and freezes in trade, well that could get much worse than people think. A chain reaction of unseen consequences.
- aphextron 6y ago
  >"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as they commit massive genocide in their own country.
  - riku_iki 6y ago
    > we will sit here and watch I think there will be very significant economic escalation. US + EU and probably some local countries (India, Vietnam Indonesia) will just ban all Chinese trade, maybe force Japan and SK do the same. China may get some Taiwanese fabs, but it's only single cell in supply chain, and may be rendered useless without integration into global economy.

pulse7 6y ago

There are many pro-China people living in Taiwan. So there is local support...

hawk_ 6y ago
Didn't get that feeling on my travels there pre 2015. Not sure why that could have changed drastically since.
tlibert 6y ago
Electoral results speak conclusively to their relatively small numbers.
scpedicini 6y ago
Anecdotal, but I lived in Taiwan for several years and never met anyone who was even remotely pro-CCP.
- justicezyx 6y ago
  Just like you won't see any trump supporters, pun intended, right?
  - gspr 6y ago
    What's the pun here?
    - justicezyx 6y ago
      Of course there are trump supporters and CCP supporters. Dummy...
- Anon1096 6y ago
  They mostly live in Southern Taiwan, so I wouldn't be surprised if foreigners (and many Taiwanese natives as well) don't regularly see pro-CCP Taiwanese citizens.
- franknine 6y ago

lmilcin 6y ago

Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine. No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest country that recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala. I don't see how it is out of the question that China just sails to Taiwan and takes it while everybody else stands and watches.

vehementi 6y ago
There's recognizing and "recognizing". Everyone knows Taiwan is a separate country. But for political reasons (helping China save face, keep making money from China) they don't openly acknowledge it. It's totally different from Crimea situation.
- lmilcin 6y ago
  Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.
  - dfjgkl43 6y ago
    If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...
    - FpUser 6y ago
      Heavily armed Taiwan can make China think twice before launching full scale attack. The US also makes money on those arms sales. And Taiwan can keep producing chips. And sell some of those chips to China for mutual benefit. Win win so far. However if for whatever reasons China would go full scale on Taiwan I doubt the US would respond in kind. There is just too much risk of conflict turning into WWIII. The West may try to isolate China instead.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

sneak 6y ago

The anti-China rhetoric and propaganda in the USA has been steadily ramping up over the last 3-5 years as well, for better or worse. I don't think this is an accident or happenstance. If China decided to take Taiwan in a small and local (and, let's be honest: extremely quick) action, there would be broad domestic support in the US for the US interfering.

Simulacra 6y ago
This is why Taiwan should have nuclear weapons.
nxc18 6y ago
Will Americans perceive that or will they see it as more foreign adventurism a la the Middle East to defend people that aren’t Americans in a hopeless forever war quagmire? And do Americans take that threat seriously enough to put actual lives on the line in a conflict that would incur serious costs to the US? We spent a lot of money in the Middle East, but in terms of lives lost it hasn’t been significant. And in terms of economic impact, it would be devastating. I don’t know if Americans are prepared to go for years without electronics, or really anything else, to enable a protracted war. The stakes would be far greater for the US. And the cost to China is coming down with their emphasis on internal consumption and building a stable self-reliant economy. Americans don’t like China, but not enough to not use TikTok, not enough to not buy Chinese, and certainly not enough to send their friends and family to die while they live through a massive economic recession and product shortages that make covid look like a joke. And that’s assuming Americans fully understand the politics in the region and why they should even care about China invading Taiwan, which feels like a big assumption considering (the more hawkish) half of the population will tell you our election was stolen by the party currently in power.
gspr 6y ago
> The anti-China rhetoric and propaganda in the USA has been steadily ramping up over the last 3-5 years as well, for better or worse. I don't think this is an accident or happenstance. Yeah, it's really strange that negative rhetoric has been ramping up against a government that is now running full-blown ethnic concentration camps in Xinjiang, is flagrantly stomping on the democratic rights of the people of Hong Kong, and is of course still completely ignoring its own citizens' human rights. Really strange.

thrwawy8739385 6y ago

China has squashed the virus, its placing a major emphasis on consumption, its navy now rivals the US. Taiwan is home to the largest semiconductor fab in the world and there is a worldwide shortage of semiconductors. Other countries around the world are struggling to get the virus under control and they are dealing with stuttering economies. The US is in the midst of a culture war where nobody can agree over economics vs virus protection or interventionism vs isolationism. The dollar is in a shaky position between massive stimulus and the increasing interest in crypto. I’d say China sees this as their best opportunity to make a move with little opposition.

f6v 6y ago

> Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. As a crimean, I find the way you write “Crimea wanted to become part of Russia” extremely funny.

hawk_ 6y ago
My bad but that's the impression I have had from international media. Russian forces didn't face any significant resitance and the local russian speaking population wasn't too keen on continuing with Ukraine. Happy to hear from a crimean what really went down.
- fragsworth 6y ago
  The news we got could have had more to do with the international community trying to save face and spreading a narrative, rather than a large number of actual locals wanting to be part of Russia.
- thu2111 6y ago
  There were also opinion polls done by Western polling firms that showed majority support for joining Russia. And Ukraine responded by cutting off the region's electricity supply, so presumably support for them fell after that.
- f6v 6y ago
  I meant that you can hardly call Russia an “aggressor” when the locals have been dreaming of becoming part of Russia since 1991. Also aggressor doesn’t invest into education, healthcare and overall quality of life.
everybodyknows 6y ago
Western news outlets had local attitudes split by ethnicity: Tatar, historically Ukrainian, and Soviet-era Russian immigrants. Was this off the mark?