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This is horrible. What keeps me up at night is thinking about TSMC. One company. Just needs an earth quake, fire, explosion, something and the whole world is cr

This is horrible. What keeps me up at night is thinking about TSMC. One company. Just needs an earth quake, fire, explosion, something and the whole world is crippled. I know we have samsung, intel, etc other fabs. But if TSMC ever went down it would make the thailand floods for hard drives look like a joke.

whatshisface 6y ago
It might even be a good investment to build a fab just to clean up in the event of a shortage. Kind of like how if anyone in Texas had the good foresight to winterize they could have made a year of profit in a few days...
- dnautics 6y ago
  you mean like how TSMC is building a fab in arizona and samsung in texas?
  - pradn 6y ago
    But TSMC's Arizona plant will make 5nm chips in 2023, by which time 5nm wont be the leading-edge node - 3nm will be. It's nice to see some geodiversity however. In any case, TSMC is dependent on ASML, which has a monopoly on leading-edge EUV tech. There is a decent amount of competition at older nodes, like > 40nm. So we'll still be able to make some chips if TSMC completely goes out of business, but obviously it wont scale to the demand and will seriously hamper business, science, and government.
    - dnautics 6y ago
      I'm comparing against GP's suggestion "to build a fab". Point is, SMC and TSMC fabs will be online faster than a direct fab investment. > science I believe science has access to more compute than it needs. I could be wrong now, but last I checked, a few years ago, the huge computational clusters (both public and private, e.g. @ pharma companies) were under-utilized, especially on legacy-hardware-that-is-still-pretty-damn-good, and scrambling to find ways to engage with outside clients to fill out capacity.
    - vasco 6y ago
      You make it sound like anyone with the will can just take ASML product and create a leading fab. If that was the case Intel wouldn't be in the mess it is in.
      - pradn 6y ago
        I'm not saying ASML -> cutting-edge capacity, but the opposite. Having cutting-edge capacity probably means you're dependent on ASML.
    - UncleOxidant 6y ago
      There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2023. There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2030 for that matter. Not everything uses the latest process node.
      - pradn 6y ago
        Yes, absolutely. Still, the point is that the factory will be useful, but not a panacea to the US's lack of cutting-edge chip-making prowess.
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    I think they have a Chinese move against Taiwan more on the mind than an earthquake or other natural disaster.
    - dnautics 6y ago
      *and South Korea. Maybe not an explicit attack, but if there is supply chain disruption due to tensions between china and japan not having contested sealanes (getting out of SK could be at risk) in your chip pipeline is probably a good thing.
    - protomyth 6y ago
      I would imagine that some DoD plan states that all those fabs in Taiwan get blown up upon invasion.
      - jacquesm 6y ago
        That would do it.
        protomyth 6y ago
        Thinking about it, I would expect some kidnap... immigration to the US of some personnel would probably happen.
        jacquesm 6y ago
        Makes you wonder if those buildings would be rigged already. Conspiracy level stuff, for sure but it is such a strategic asset. In WWII bridges that were still in daily use in Europe were already mined well before the territory changed control with the leavers trying to deny the new arrivals the use of the bridges.
        protomyth 6y ago
        In the modern era, it probably is just gathering precise positioning for a missile launch. I expect some computer wiping will be in the cards too. That might be the modern version of rigging the buildings already. Given what a strategic asset they are, I would expect its not really "conspiracy level stuff" on various plans. After all, the US had attack plans for the UK between the world wars.
  - wavefunction 6y ago
    As far as I know Samsung in Texas is not yet a done deal. They're requesting complete tax abatement for twenty years in addition to the inducements offered by local governments and I believe they're waiting to see if they can pull it off. Their current facilities in Austin have remained closed since the big snow storm.
- varispeed 6y ago
  Someone should start a Kickstarter for a new fab :-)
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    At least you'd be able to buy some spares for a stepper, or maybe a set of manuals. It's a start.
- pwdisswordfish0 6y ago
  Having worked in the semiconductor industry, it would be good investment for Apple, Google, or Microsoft to get into fabbing stuff for themselves and others just on the basis of being able to outcompete everyone else in operational efficiency. There's a killing to be made from low-hanging fruit all over the place, at least for anyone who's able to front costs of opening or acquiring a billion dollar fab.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    > it would be good investment for Apple, Google, or Microsoft to get into fabbing stuff for themselves and others just on the basis of being able to outcompete everyone else in operational efficiency. They can try... Surely they have cash, and so did the Chinese who were signing 10 digit cheques for anybody claiming to be able to setup a modern fab. Running a fab is not like running a cat video website, or making a cookie cutter electronics from reference designs. On other hand, if there is a company which can turn off the lights on a dotcom companies like them, it will be a big fab business. TSMC's Morris Chang's integrity, and softness, completely uncharacteristic to the big ambition, ego, and testosterone-driver semi industry, were what made TSMC stood out. Dirty play in the semi industry was everywhere in nineties. People who are taking over TSMC from Chang may not share his adherence to morals bordering on altruism. P.S. Saying what that industry was is by no means a meme. Early silicon valley businesses would've given a heart attack to any modern politically correct business exec. Stuff like this was rather common: https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/national-ad.jpg https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uplo... https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/102695454-03-01.jpg https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uplo... Just read some memories of Fairchild Semi "alums." Stories of men from semiconductor companies stealing each other's wives in the most literal sense, gallons of expensive liquors, contraband Cuban cigars, break-ins into labs, and fisticuffs at business meetings were the world of the valley back then.
    - pwdisswordfish0 6y ago
      > Running a fab is not like running a cat video website, or making a cookie cutter electronics from reference designs. You're squaring up against a stickman. The companies cited are not fly-by-night startups "running a cat video website". Dave Cutler got his start on the factory floor, working out better processes for a toilet paper manufacturer. Apple has plenty of hardware chops and the vertical integration bug. Google shook up telecoms by scaring the shit out of the industry incumbents (although they could have stood to get their hands dirtier, Cutler-style[1], and stay in the game). Although none of this is necessary. The fruit hangs so low here that all it would take is someone half competent who can see the enormous gains to be had by just not doing so many things in the dumbest way possible. This isn't bleeding edge stuff. We're talking catching up on things that that wouldn't even be considered state-of-the-art 25 years ago. Hell, they could start just by drastically cutting back on how many hires they source from the defense industry and have had their minds warped by (and numb to) the bureaucracy and bottomless budgets from that world. > if there is a company which can turn off the lights on a dotcom companies like them, it will be a big fab business Not a chance. The semiconductor industry, perversely, has no idea how to put computers to use, and the leadership and organizational structures are aligned against that kind of achievement ever coming from within (or being airdropped in by a leadership hire who cuts across the lanes from another industry) and making the top-down sweeping changes that would be required. 1. https://youtu.be/J2GV_bCfnCw?t=171 https://youtu.be/J2GV_bCfnCw?t=171
- JumpCrisscross 6y ago
  > if anyone in Texas had the good foresight to winterize they could have made a year of profit in a few days Price gouging laws generally discourage this business model.
  - jandrese 6y ago
    It didn't stop the wholesale power distributers in Texas last winter. What was it? $9/kWh? For several days.
- thaumasiotes 6y ago
  > Kind of like how if anyone in Texas had the good foresight to winterize they could have made a year of profit in a few days... Hmm. When would this foresighted person have made their preparations? What would installation have cost? What would maintenance have cost? More or less than a year's worth of profits?
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - mschaef 6y ago
    > What would installation have cost? What would maintenance have cost? More or less than a year's worth of profits? Power that's selling right now for $25/MWh was selling at the $9,000/MWh cap. A 36,000% increase in price can surely pay for enough to, say, keep your pressure sensing equipment from freezing over. (Which is why the 1,280MW STNP Unit 1 went offline at a $11.5MM/hour+expenses cost.) Not to mention the lives and property damage that might have been spared. > When would this foresighted person have made their preparations? As far as _when_, maybe after the 2011 TX cold snap that took generation offline for similar reasons. Or the one in 1989.
    - rcxdude 6y ago
      This kind of analysis assumes the price would go that high if people had winterized their equipment. The price only went that high because the grid had basically already failed. It's extremely unlikely it would go that high if the grid was functioning. So the incentive to get that payout only exists if the grid falls over anyway. Basically this either allows smaller actors (who can't prevent the crises) to take a bet with long odds and a large payout (already not a winner as far as infrastructure investments go), or it basically removes its own incentive if enough of the larger actors take steps to avoid it. Basically I think this idea of ultra-high pricing during a crisis providing an incentive to prepare for one (as opposed to paying for the capacity to that the crisis doesn't occur in the first place), is not necessarily well-formed: it's feels like it's assuming the market remains efficient in one half while it also requires that the market has effectively failed due to the crisis we're trying to structure the market to prevent.
- jhayward 6y ago
  > Kind of like how if anyone in Texas had the good foresight to winterize they could have made a year of profit in a few days. This fundamentally mis-states the situation in Texas during the recent cold catastrophe. Gas suppliers that had winterized had their electricity cut off and could not pressurize their distribution. Generators who had winterized had their gas supply curtailed. And so on. It was a systemic failure by the PUCT and the RRC, who are the regulators. Ultimately, the Governor who appoints those boards and the Legislature who grants their authorities failed. It wasn't some yahoo generator too dumb to winterize, although there were plenty who didn't find it financially convenient to do so.
refulgentis 6y ago
You can sleep a _little_ better: the narrative around this ended up being focused around TSMC, but it's simply because that's the most visible part of the chain, they're first to a new node and all the newest gadgets need the newest node, so all the newest gadgets are on TSMC. They're not solely responsible for like 90% of chips or anything.
- BostonEnginerd 6y ago
  Especially in the automotive sector which is mostly using relatively ancient processes.
  - antattack 6y ago
    New Tesla Model S is rumored [1] to use latest AMD Ryzen chipset. Even Model 3 and Model Y are using 14nm Intel Gordon Peak chips. [1] https://wccftech.com/amd-navi-23-rdna-2-gpu-reportedly-powers-tesla-2021-infotainment-system-10-tflops-horsepower-can-run-cyberpunk-2077/ https://wccftech.com/amd-navi-23-rdna-2-gpu-reportedly-power...
    - BostonEnginerd 6y ago
      Some of the SoCs are using leading edge nodes - but most of the microcontrollers, power electronics, etc. are using 90nm+ nodes.
- post_break 6y ago
  As someone with a new phone, managed to find an nvidia card at msrp, and who likes computers made by team red, no sorry, I'm still not going to sleep good at night. You tell the population they cant get new iPhones, you watch the anarchy. Not just plebs, but the stock market react to Apple saying no new iPhones, actually no iPhones in stock at all. It would be devastating not from a "I can't have the shiny new gadget waaa".
  - refulgentis 6y ago
    Apple can quell the stock market crash, depression, and ensuing national mental health crisis by going back to what they were doing, industry standard practice, dual sourcing from Samsung fabs. AMD/Team Red...well, same thing. They're not due to be on the TSMC node you're worried about until 2022 at the _very_ earliest
throwei4u243 6y ago
Not to mention the PLA and the turning of mainland back to Maoist policies. Taiwan's critical role is the tech sector is IMO a deterrent bigger than Nuclear weapons at this point, and its invasion may well be a casus belli in the coming years.
an_opabinia 6y ago
Nothing would really happen. We’d keep using 2 year old processors from Intel, and pay more for them. The GPUs, whose price is high because of cryptocurrency, will not be missed. These auto manufacturers could pay a little more for a general purpose CPU instead of ASICs.
- post_break 6y ago
  The stock market would crash guaranteed if Apple had no inventory of phones. AMD no gpus or cpus, etc. It wouldn't just be like oh sorry out of stock. It would touch every aspect of your life.
  - slaw 6y ago
    FED could just print even more money to pump stock market.
- jnwatson 6y ago
  Auto manufacturers can't just put in a general purpose CPU. Embedded CPUs have functionality general purpose CPUs don't have. Not to mention it would take months to design new hardware and write new software. The chips being put into cars today were selected at least 5 years ago.
  - gscott 6y ago
    One Raspberry Pi in every car and problem solved.
    - Gibbon1 6y ago
      From an industrial/automotive/aerospace standpoint Raspberry Pi's are hot garbage.
      - herewulf 6y ago
        Granted it's just the Raspberry Pi compute module, but the existence of the Revolution Pi[1] would seem to counter your point. [1]: https://revolution.kunbus.com https://revolution.kunbus.com
Nokinside 6y ago
Taiwan is currently having a drought. Water supply to TSMC has been limited. TSMC scrambling to secure enough water. Fabs are chemical plants that require lots of water. TSMC Signs Deal For More Than 100 Water Tankers As Taiwan Drought Expected To Worsen https://wccftech.com/tsmc-signs-deal-for-more-than-100-water-tankers-as-taiwan-drought-expected-to-worsen/ https://wccftech.com/tsmc-signs-deal-for-more-than-100-water...
- sn_master 6y ago
  Reminded me of the 2011 Thai floods that had a huge impact on HDD prices. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thai-floods-drives/thai-floods-boost-pc-hard-drive-prices-idUSTRE79R66220111028 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thai-floods-drives/thai-f...
  - knorker 6y ago
    Was it grandparent comment's explicit mention of it that reminded you?
    - sn_master 6y ago
      nop, my experience trying to buy a hard drive back then with a very small budget. I just noticed the grandparent comment now tho, thanks.
- imhoguy 6y ago
  and this happens on high-tech island country surrounded by abundance of (salted) water.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
ffggvv 6y ago
wait till china annexes taiwan and america just watches
pyinstallwoes 6y ago
We really need to localize manufacturing of fabs. Even if the tech is making something closer to more primitive forms of computing from 30+ years ago. A lot can be done on those chips with well written software. Unfortunately just trying to manufacture a transistor is extremely difficult and dangerous. I wonder if there's something more accessible that could help localize circuit logic as a primitive building block of computation - one that isn't worried about being the fastest thing but the most accessible. If not targeted per individual then per a big neighborhood/small town.

whatshisface 6y ago

It might even be a good investment to build a fab just to clean up in the event of a shortage. Kind of like how if anyone in Texas had the good foresight to winterize they could have made a year of profit in a few days...

dnautics 6y ago
you mean like how TSMC is building a fab in arizona and samsung in texas?
- pradn 6y ago
  But TSMC's Arizona plant will make 5nm chips in 2023, by which time 5nm wont be the leading-edge node - 3nm will be. It's nice to see some geodiversity however. In any case, TSMC is dependent on ASML, which has a monopoly on leading-edge EUV tech. There is a decent amount of competition at older nodes, like > 40nm. So we'll still be able to make some chips if TSMC completely goes out of business, but obviously it wont scale to the demand and will seriously hamper business, science, and government.
  - dnautics 6y ago
    I'm comparing against GP's suggestion "to build a fab". Point is, SMC and TSMC fabs will be online faster than a direct fab investment. > science I believe science has access to more compute than it needs. I could be wrong now, but last I checked, a few years ago, the huge computational clusters (both public and private, e.g. @ pharma companies) were under-utilized, especially on legacy-hardware-that-is-still-pretty-damn-good, and scrambling to find ways to engage with outside clients to fill out capacity.
  - vasco 6y ago
    You make it sound like anyone with the will can just take ASML product and create a leading fab. If that was the case Intel wouldn't be in the mess it is in.
    - pradn 6y ago
      I'm not saying ASML -> cutting-edge capacity, but the opposite. Having cutting-edge capacity probably means you're dependent on ASML.
  - UncleOxidant 6y ago
    There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2023. There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2030 for that matter. Not everything uses the latest process node.
    - pradn 6y ago
      Yes, absolutely. Still, the point is that the factory will be useful, but not a panacea to the US's lack of cutting-edge chip-making prowess.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  I think they have a Chinese move against Taiwan more on the mind than an earthquake or other natural disaster.
  - dnautics 6y ago
    *and South Korea. Maybe not an explicit attack, but if there is supply chain disruption due to tensions between china and japan not having contested sealanes (getting out of SK could be at risk) in your chip pipeline is probably a good thing.
  - protomyth 6y ago
    I would imagine that some DoD plan states that all those fabs in Taiwan get blown up upon invasion.
    - jacquesm 6y ago
      That would do it.
      - protomyth 6y ago
        Thinking about it, I would expect some kidnap... immigration to the US of some personnel would probably happen.
        jacquesm 6y ago
        Makes you wonder if those buildings would be rigged already. Conspiracy level stuff, for sure but it is such a strategic asset. In WWII bridges that were still in daily use in Europe were already mined well before the territory changed control with the leavers trying to deny the new arrivals the use of the bridges.
        protomyth 6y ago
        In the modern era, it probably is just gathering precise positioning for a missile launch. I expect some computer wiping will be in the cards too. That might be the modern version of rigging the buildings already. Given what a strategic asset they are, I would expect its not really "conspiracy level stuff" on various plans. After all, the US had attack plans for the UK between the world wars.
- wavefunction 6y ago
  As far as I know Samsung in Texas is not yet a done deal. They're requesting complete tax abatement for twenty years in addition to the inducements offered by local governments and I believe they're waiting to see if they can pull it off. Their current facilities in Austin have remained closed since the big snow storm.
varispeed 6y ago
Someone should start a Kickstarter for a new fab :-)
- jacquesm 6y ago
  At least you'd be able to buy some spares for a stepper, or maybe a set of manuals. It's a start.
pwdisswordfish0 6y ago
Having worked in the semiconductor industry, it would be good investment for Apple, Google, or Microsoft to get into fabbing stuff for themselves and others just on the basis of being able to outcompete everyone else in operational efficiency. There's a killing to be made from low-hanging fruit all over the place, at least for anyone who's able to front costs of opening or acquiring a billion dollar fab.
- baybal2 6y ago
  > it would be good investment for Apple, Google, or Microsoft to get into fabbing stuff for themselves and others just on the basis of being able to outcompete everyone else in operational efficiency. They can try... Surely they have cash, and so did the Chinese who were signing 10 digit cheques for anybody claiming to be able to setup a modern fab. Running a fab is not like running a cat video website, or making a cookie cutter electronics from reference designs. On other hand, if there is a company which can turn off the lights on a dotcom companies like them, it will be a big fab business. TSMC's Morris Chang's integrity, and softness, completely uncharacteristic to the big ambition, ego, and testosterone-driver semi industry, were what made TSMC stood out. Dirty play in the semi industry was everywhere in nineties. People who are taking over TSMC from Chang may not share his adherence to morals bordering on altruism. P.S. Saying what that industry was is by no means a meme. Early silicon valley businesses would've given a heart attack to any modern politically correct business exec. Stuff like this was rather common: https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/national-ad.jpg https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uplo... https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/102695454-03-01.jpg https://www.autodesk.com/products/eagle/blog/wp-content/uplo... Just read some memories of Fairchild Semi "alums." Stories of men from semiconductor companies stealing each other's wives in the most literal sense, gallons of expensive liquors, contraband Cuban cigars, break-ins into labs, and fisticuffs at business meetings were the world of the valley back then.
  - pwdisswordfish0 6y ago
    > Running a fab is not like running a cat video website, or making a cookie cutter electronics from reference designs. You're squaring up against a stickman. The companies cited are not fly-by-night startups "running a cat video website". Dave Cutler got his start on the factory floor, working out better processes for a toilet paper manufacturer. Apple has plenty of hardware chops and the vertical integration bug. Google shook up telecoms by scaring the shit out of the industry incumbents (although they could have stood to get their hands dirtier, Cutler-style[1], and stay in the game). Although none of this is necessary. The fruit hangs so low here that all it would take is someone half competent who can see the enormous gains to be had by just not doing so many things in the dumbest way possible. This isn't bleeding edge stuff. We're talking catching up on things that that wouldn't even be considered state-of-the-art 25 years ago. Hell, they could start just by drastically cutting back on how many hires they source from the defense industry and have had their minds warped by (and numb to) the bureaucracy and bottomless budgets from that world. > if there is a company which can turn off the lights on a dotcom companies like them, it will be a big fab business Not a chance. The semiconductor industry, perversely, has no idea how to put computers to use, and the leadership and organizational structures are aligned against that kind of achievement ever coming from within (or being airdropped in by a leadership hire who cuts across the lanes from another industry) and making the top-down sweeping changes that would be required. 1. https://youtu.be/J2GV_bCfnCw?t=171 https://youtu.be/J2GV_bCfnCw?t=171
JumpCrisscross 6y ago
> if anyone in Texas had the good foresight to winterize they could have made a year of profit in a few days Price gouging laws generally discourage this business model.
- jandrese 6y ago
  It didn't stop the wholesale power distributers in Texas last winter. What was it? $9/kWh? For several days.
thaumasiotes 6y ago
> Kind of like how if anyone in Texas had the good foresight to winterize they could have made a year of profit in a few days... Hmm. When would this foresighted person have made their preparations? What would installation have cost? What would maintenance have cost? More or less than a year's worth of profits?
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- mschaef 6y ago
  > What would installation have cost? What would maintenance have cost? More or less than a year's worth of profits? Power that's selling right now for $25/MWh was selling at the $9,000/MWh cap. A 36,000% increase in price can surely pay for enough to, say, keep your pressure sensing equipment from freezing over. (Which is why the 1,280MW STNP Unit 1 went offline at a $11.5MM/hour+expenses cost.) Not to mention the lives and property damage that might have been spared. > When would this foresighted person have made their preparations? As far as _when_, maybe after the 2011 TX cold snap that took generation offline for similar reasons. Or the one in 1989.
  - rcxdude 6y ago
    This kind of analysis assumes the price would go that high if people had winterized their equipment. The price only went that high because the grid had basically already failed. It's extremely unlikely it would go that high if the grid was functioning. So the incentive to get that payout only exists if the grid falls over anyway. Basically this either allows smaller actors (who can't prevent the crises) to take a bet with long odds and a large payout (already not a winner as far as infrastructure investments go), or it basically removes its own incentive if enough of the larger actors take steps to avoid it. Basically I think this idea of ultra-high pricing during a crisis providing an incentive to prepare for one (as opposed to paying for the capacity to that the crisis doesn't occur in the first place), is not necessarily well-formed: it's feels like it's assuming the market remains efficient in one half while it also requires that the market has effectively failed due to the crisis we're trying to structure the market to prevent.
jhayward 6y ago
> Kind of like how if anyone in Texas had the good foresight to winterize they could have made a year of profit in a few days. This fundamentally mis-states the situation in Texas during the recent cold catastrophe. Gas suppliers that had winterized had their electricity cut off and could not pressurize their distribution. Generators who had winterized had their gas supply curtailed. And so on. It was a systemic failure by the PUCT and the RRC, who are the regulators. Ultimately, the Governor who appoints those boards and the Legislature who grants their authorities failed. It wasn't some yahoo generator too dumb to winterize, although there were plenty who didn't find it financially convenient to do so.

refulgentis 6y ago

You can sleep a _little_ better: the narrative around this ended up being focused around TSMC, but it's simply because that's the most visible part of the chain, they're first to a new node and all the newest gadgets need the newest node, so all the newest gadgets are on TSMC. They're not solely responsible for like 90% of chips or anything.

BostonEnginerd 6y ago
Especially in the automotive sector which is mostly using relatively ancient processes.
- antattack 6y ago
  New Tesla Model S is rumored [1] to use latest AMD Ryzen chipset. Even Model 3 and Model Y are using 14nm Intel Gordon Peak chips. [1] https://wccftech.com/amd-navi-23-rdna-2-gpu-reportedly-powers-tesla-2021-infotainment-system-10-tflops-horsepower-can-run-cyberpunk-2077/ https://wccftech.com/amd-navi-23-rdna-2-gpu-reportedly-power...
  - BostonEnginerd 6y ago
    Some of the SoCs are using leading edge nodes - but most of the microcontrollers, power electronics, etc. are using 90nm+ nodes.
post_break 6y ago
As someone with a new phone, managed to find an nvidia card at msrp, and who likes computers made by team red, no sorry, I'm still not going to sleep good at night. You tell the population they cant get new iPhones, you watch the anarchy. Not just plebs, but the stock market react to Apple saying no new iPhones, actually no iPhones in stock at all. It would be devastating not from a "I can't have the shiny new gadget waaa".
- refulgentis 6y ago
  Apple can quell the stock market crash, depression, and ensuing national mental health crisis by going back to what they were doing, industry standard practice, dual sourcing from Samsung fabs. AMD/Team Red...well, same thing. They're not due to be on the TSMC node you're worried about until 2022 at the _very_ earliest

throwei4u243 6y ago

Not to mention the PLA and the turning of mainland back to Maoist policies. Taiwan's critical role is the tech sector is IMO a deterrent bigger than Nuclear weapons at this point, and its invasion may well be a casus belli in the coming years.

an_opabinia 6y ago

Nothing would really happen. We’d keep using 2 year old processors from Intel, and pay more for them. The GPUs, whose price is high because of cryptocurrency, will not be missed. These auto manufacturers could pay a little more for a general purpose CPU instead of ASICs.

post_break 6y ago
The stock market would crash guaranteed if Apple had no inventory of phones. AMD no gpus or cpus, etc. It wouldn't just be like oh sorry out of stock. It would touch every aspect of your life.
- slaw 6y ago
  FED could just print even more money to pump stock market.
jnwatson 6y ago
Auto manufacturers can't just put in a general purpose CPU. Embedded CPUs have functionality general purpose CPUs don't have. Not to mention it would take months to design new hardware and write new software. The chips being put into cars today were selected at least 5 years ago.
- gscott 6y ago
  One Raspberry Pi in every car and problem solved.
  - Gibbon1 6y ago
    From an industrial/automotive/aerospace standpoint Raspberry Pi's are hot garbage.
    - herewulf 6y ago
      Granted it's just the Raspberry Pi compute module, but the existence of the Revolution Pi[1] would seem to counter your point. [1]: https://revolution.kunbus.com https://revolution.kunbus.com

Nokinside 6y ago

Taiwan is currently having a drought. Water supply to TSMC has been limited. TSMC scrambling to secure enough water. Fabs are chemical plants that require lots of water. TSMC Signs Deal For More Than 100 Water Tankers As Taiwan Drought Expected To Worsen https://wccftech.com/tsmc-signs-deal-for-more-than-100-water-tankers-as-taiwan-drought-expected-to-worsen/ https://wccftech.com/tsmc-signs-deal-for-more-than-100-water...

sn_master 6y ago
Reminded me of the 2011 Thai floods that had a huge impact on HDD prices. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thai-floods-drives/thai-floods-boost-pc-hard-drive-prices-idUSTRE79R66220111028 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thai-floods-drives/thai-f...
- knorker 6y ago
  Was it grandparent comment's explicit mention of it that reminded you?
  - sn_master 6y ago
    nop, my experience trying to buy a hard drive back then with a very small budget. I just noticed the grandparent comment now tho, thanks.
imhoguy 6y ago
and this happens on high-tech island country surrounded by abundance of (salted) water.
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ffggvv 6y ago

wait till china annexes taiwan and america just watches

pyinstallwoes 6y ago

We really need to localize manufacturing of fabs. Even if the tech is making something closer to more primitive forms of computing from 30+ years ago. A lot can be done on those chips with well written software. Unfortunately just trying to manufacture a transistor is extremely difficult and dangerous. I wonder if there's something more accessible that could help localize circuit logic as a primitive building block of computation - one that isn't worried about being the fastest thing but the most accessible. If not targeted per individual then per a big neighborhood/small town.