7 ms·

It’s true that Japan has done many non-optimal things, but the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing

by lhl 6y ago

It’s true that Japan has done many non-optimal things, but the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now. Any Japanese who see things like Idaho’s recent mask burning protests are simply bewildered. Of course, people take their masks off when eating out, but still keep them on while ordering and waiting for food, and the “3C’s” messaging has also focused on improved ventilation in buildings and vehicles while this was ignored in many other countries (seems like pretty basic stuff for a highly contagious respiratory virus). The mix of policies (specifically the lack of testing and rapid testing) has led to Japan being one of the least effective East Asian countries in containing COVID (just compare it to Taiwan, South Korea, or China), but leagues better than the west. Some of that calculus has changed with B117 and other variants, especially those that spread more with children, you’re seeing now reports of community spread of these variants in schools being reported (Japan’s focus in cluster tracing, while it has been overwhelmed at times I believe can also be given a lot of credit for keeping numbers much lower than they would otherwise be).

timr 6y ago
> the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now I had something in there about this, but deleted it because I thought it was distracting from the main point, and any mention of masks brings out the politics. That said: I see an...well, let's just call it interesting...number of Japanese people socializing in small restaurants, bars, etc. without wearing masks. Likewise, it's really common to see TV talent wandering around Tokyo wearing no mask, or one of those teeny tiny transparent plastic chin-visor things [1]. I see it literally every day (via facebook, instagram, LINE, etc.) Try to wear one of those in a grocery store in San Francisco or New York. I dare you. Is this "proof"? No, of course not. But I do roll my eyes when people present Japan as a magical masking wonderland. The truth is more complicated. Just like New York or SF right now, people walk around with masks on the street, where they do ~no good. They then go inside to tiny, crowded bars and restaurants...and take off their masks. At the very least, this is all a bit overblown. (If you want my speculation, I think the fact that Japanese people have a culture of being quiet probably plays a bigger role than masks. There aren't a lot of people talking loudly in crowded public spaces. Except for bars and restaurants, people are quiet and respectful of shared space. One of the things I loved most about living there.) [1] https://p.globalsources.com/IMAGES/PDT/BIG/614/B1176919614.jpg https://p.globalsources.com/IMAGES/PDT/BIG/614/B1176919614.j...
- strogonoff 6y ago
  > I see an...well, let's just call it interesting...number of Japanese people socializing in small restaurants, bars, etc. without wearing masks. Same in Seoul. When discussing this matter with friends located elsewhere, they seem to have difficulty believing this, but every cafe and restaurant will have 90%+ of visitors talking without masks after they finish eating until the time they leave. (Those sitting alone quietly reading a book will wear masks, ironically they’re the smallest threat.) Government has been dealing with this by temporarily forcing franchised shops to shut down, and later restricting working hours of coffeeshops and restaurants (a few in the area, mostly franchises, had to close forever), while people more or less continued to behave the same way throughout the pandemic if they manage to find a place open for eating in. At a cafe or a restaurant, it almost seems like it’s socially unacceptable to be conversing with a friend whilst wearing a mask. This makes little sense to me, especially since walking outdoors without a mask is perceived as taboo[0]. At some point public parks had sitting spaces and grass non-figuratively taped over with signs preventing people from gathering in fresh air, all the while restaurants stringing along park edges were visibly chock full of people gathering to talk indoors (I’ve taken a few photos as it was a shocking sight). Initially this made me furious as I saw pure malice in that arrangement; later someone told me that the government “just” wanted to not be liable for infections that occur in spaces under their direct jurisdiction. This persisted for months until people gradually started ignoring the tape in the park. The only place where everyone reliably wears a mask is buses: bus drivers monitor the cabin and seem to take this matter very seriously. If I’m to speculate, the reason it’s comparatively fine now is thanks to extensive testing and seemingly working contact tracing measures. [0] You’ll be judged unless you are stationary and smoking, in which case no one would bat an eye. Go figure!
  - mleonhard 6y ago
    When infection rates spiked, did Korean people reduce the time they spend maskless in public indoor spaces? Are Korean people more likely to wear a mask in public when they're feeling sick?
    - strogonoff 6y ago
nradov 6y ago
I am skeptical that mask usage is the major factor. The lower obesity rate probably has a larger impact. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41574-020-00462-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41574-020-00462-1
- ffggvv 6y ago
  people in the US are just obsessed with the mask thing cuz it feeds their lib “trust the science” mentality even though it’s obviously the obesity rate that makes the difference.
- jobigoud 6y ago
  The comparison was on case rate. Being obese doesn't make you more likely to catch the virus afaik.
  - nradov 6y ago
    Case rates can't be usefully compared between countries because they all have different testing practices. Being obese actually does make you more likely to catch the virus. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7430889/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7430889/
    - Pyramus 6y ago
      The study you linked shows that obesity is linked with more severe outcomes, not higher infection rates. I know at least one study that shows infection rates did not change with co-morbidities, see Fig 6b in https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19509-y https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19509-y However I would not be surprised to see slightly higher infection rates mediated by healthier immune systems in healthier folks.
      - nradov 6y ago
        Did you read the article? "... indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is more likely to enter the human body in obese people as compared with non-obese people."
brigandish 6y ago
The biggest difference is in the waistlines. As reported just the other day[0]: > Of the 2.5 million COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of February 2021, 2.2 million were in countries where more than half the population is classified as overweight Japan is not one of those countries. As someone who lives in Japan I can tell you that the general population isn't wearing high quality, fitted masks in controlled conditions and using their clinical training to avoid disease transmission, which might provide the conditions that any study done on masks could have the possibility to back. No, there's plenty of cheap, reused, badly fitted, incorrectly worn, regularly touched and inconsistent mask wearing by people who've not had any training in how to limit transmission, which would explain the frequent flu epidemics[1][2][3]. [0] https://www.worldobesityday.org/assets/downloads/COVID-19-and-Obesity-The-2021-Atlas.pdf https://www.worldobesityday.org/assets/downloads/COVID-19-an... [1] https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00386/japan-gripped-by-major-flu-outbreak.html https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00386/japan-gripped-by... [2] https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2018/01/e609ee653721-flu-epidemic-rages-in-japan-with-record-high-cases-in-one-week-reported.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2018/01/e609ee653721-flu-... [3] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28668446/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28668446/
- cdavid 6y ago
  Obesity does not really explain order of magnitude fewer cases, and obesity is much less of a factor than age for mortality. I can't find the numbers now, but it is better to be younger and quite fat than much older and fit. Japan does not lack people above 85 years where the fatality rate is double digit if you catch the disease. The only reasonable answer I have seen so far about Japan is that we don't really know. It is certainly true that many people don't wear masks properly in Japan (e.g. every time I get out, even just to combini, I see people not wearing masks on the nose). But is it worth than not wearing one ? I am not sure we really know. I've seen conflicting info there.
  - brigandish 6y ago
    Well, problems with obesity might also correlate with older, wealthier populations but they also looked at that: > The figures are affected by the age structure of national populations and a country’s relative wealth and reporting capacity, but our findings appear to be independent of these contributory factors It's got links to a lot of other studies (admittedly, I'm yet to read those) but the summaries they give seem to really place the importance on the size of the waistline.

by lhl 6y ago

timr 6y ago

> the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now I had something in there about this, but deleted it because I thought it was distracting from the main point, and any mention of masks brings out the politics. That said: I see an...well, let's just call it interesting...number of Japanese people socializing in small restaurants, bars, etc. without wearing masks. Likewise, it's really common to see TV talent wandering around Tokyo wearing no mask, or one of those teeny tiny transparent plastic chin-visor things [1]. I see it literally every day (via facebook, instagram, LINE, etc.) Try to wear one of those in a grocery store in San Francisco or New York. I dare you. Is this "proof"? No, of course not. But I do roll my eyes when people present Japan as a magical masking wonderland. The truth is more complicated. Just like New York or SF right now, people walk around with masks on the street, where they do ~no good. They then go inside to tiny, crowded bars and restaurants...and take off their masks. At the very least, this is all a bit overblown. (If you want my speculation, I think the fact that Japanese people have a culture of being quiet probably plays a bigger role than masks. There aren't a lot of people talking loudly in crowded public spaces. Except for bars and restaurants, people are quiet and respectful of shared space. One of the things I loved most about living there.) [1] https://p.globalsources.com/IMAGES/PDT/BIG/614/B1176919614.jpg https://p.globalsources.com/IMAGES/PDT/BIG/614/B1176919614.j...

strogonoff 6y ago
> I see an...well, let's just call it interesting...number of Japanese people socializing in small restaurants, bars, etc. without wearing masks. Same in Seoul. When discussing this matter with friends located elsewhere, they seem to have difficulty believing this, but every cafe and restaurant will have 90%+ of visitors talking without masks after they finish eating until the time they leave. (Those sitting alone quietly reading a book will wear masks, ironically they’re the smallest threat.) Government has been dealing with this by temporarily forcing franchised shops to shut down, and later restricting working hours of coffeeshops and restaurants (a few in the area, mostly franchises, had to close forever), while people more or less continued to behave the same way throughout the pandemic if they manage to find a place open for eating in. At a cafe or a restaurant, it almost seems like it’s socially unacceptable to be conversing with a friend whilst wearing a mask. This makes little sense to me, especially since walking outdoors without a mask is perceived as taboo[0]. At some point public parks had sitting spaces and grass non-figuratively taped over with signs preventing people from gathering in fresh air, all the while restaurants stringing along park edges were visibly chock full of people gathering to talk indoors (I’ve taken a few photos as it was a shocking sight). Initially this made me furious as I saw pure malice in that arrangement; later someone told me that the government “just” wanted to not be liable for infections that occur in spaces under their direct jurisdiction. This persisted for months until people gradually started ignoring the tape in the park. The only place where everyone reliably wears a mask is buses: bus drivers monitor the cabin and seem to take this matter very seriously. If I’m to speculate, the reason it’s comparatively fine now is thanks to extensive testing and seemingly working contact tracing measures. [0] You’ll be judged unless you are stationary and smoking, in which case no one would bat an eye. Go figure!
- mleonhard 6y ago
  When infection rates spiked, did Korean people reduce the time they spend maskless in public indoor spaces? Are Korean people more likely to wear a mask in public when they're feeling sick?
  - strogonoff 6y ago

nradov 6y ago

I am skeptical that mask usage is the major factor. The lower obesity rate probably has a larger impact. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41574-020-00462-1 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41574-020-00462-1

ffggvv 6y ago
people in the US are just obsessed with the mask thing cuz it feeds their lib “trust the science” mentality even though it’s obviously the obesity rate that makes the difference.
jobigoud 6y ago
The comparison was on case rate. Being obese doesn't make you more likely to catch the virus afaik.
- nradov 6y ago
  Case rates can't be usefully compared between countries because they all have different testing practices. Being obese actually does make you more likely to catch the virus. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7430889/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7430889/
  - Pyramus 6y ago
    The study you linked shows that obesity is linked with more severe outcomes, not higher infection rates. I know at least one study that shows infection rates did not change with co-morbidities, see Fig 6b in https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19509-y https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19509-y However I would not be surprised to see slightly higher infection rates mediated by healthier immune systems in healthier folks.
    - nradov 6y ago
      Did you read the article? "... indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is more likely to enter the human body in obese people as compared with non-obese people."

brigandish 6y ago

The biggest difference is in the waistlines. As reported just the other day[0]: > Of the 2.5 million COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of February 2021, 2.2 million were in countries where more than half the population is classified as overweight Japan is not one of those countries. As someone who lives in Japan I can tell you that the general population isn't wearing high quality, fitted masks in controlled conditions and using their clinical training to avoid disease transmission, which might provide the conditions that any study done on masks could have the possibility to back. No, there's plenty of cheap, reused, badly fitted, incorrectly worn, regularly touched and inconsistent mask wearing by people who've not had any training in how to limit transmission, which would explain the frequent flu epidemics[1][2][3]. [0] https://www.worldobesityday.org/assets/downloads/COVID-19-and-Obesity-The-2021-Atlas.pdf https://www.worldobesityday.org/assets/downloads/COVID-19-an... [1] https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00386/japan-gripped-by-major-flu-outbreak.html https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00386/japan-gripped-by... [2] https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2018/01/e609ee653721-flu-epidemic-rages-in-japan-with-record-high-cases-in-one-week-reported.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2018/01/e609ee653721-flu-... [3] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28668446/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28668446/

cdavid 6y ago
Obesity does not really explain order of magnitude fewer cases, and obesity is much less of a factor than age for mortality. I can't find the numbers now, but it is better to be younger and quite fat than much older and fit. Japan does not lack people above 85 years where the fatality rate is double digit if you catch the disease. The only reasonable answer I have seen so far about Japan is that we don't really know. It is certainly true that many people don't wear masks properly in Japan (e.g. every time I get out, even just to combini, I see people not wearing masks on the nose). But is it worth than not wearing one ? I am not sure we really know. I've seen conflicting info there.
- brigandish 6y ago
  Well, problems with obesity might also correlate with older, wealthier populations but they also looked at that: > The figures are affected by the age structure of national populations and a country’s relative wealth and reporting capacity, but our findings appear to be independent of these contributory factors It's got links to a lot of other studies (admittedly, I'm yet to read those) but the summaries they give seem to really place the importance on the size of the waistline.