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> Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. t

by timr 6y ago

> Whatever Tokyo is doing to keep COVID under control with such a crazy high population density, it looks like we've got an entire state over here in the U.S. that could still learn some of the basics. I lived in Japan, have many friends there whom I keep in touch with, and watch the local news regularly. The restrictions in the major cities have been substantially fewer than we've had here in the US. There have been two voluntary states of emergency, where businesses were encouraged (but not required) to reduce hours. Nearly all have remained open. This winter, the government discussed enacting emergency laws to allow fining businesses that don't comply (not sure if that went anywhere...), but mostly they tried to incentivize businesses by providing subsidies to places that reduced hours. To be sure, fewer people are going out and using transit, but a large number of my friends are still going to work in the office, going out to eat, etc. Until late this past fall, the government was actually encouraging domestic travel, via a national voucher system. This was only suspended once cases were clearly spiking around the nation. Compared to (e.g.) New York, Tokyo looks basically normal, even today. The most visible difference is the lack of tourists. AFAICT, the only broad conclusion one can draw from Japan is that most of the things that are held sacred here in the US don't seem to matter very much at all in their context.

lhl 6y ago
It’s true that Japan has done many non-optimal things, but the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now. Any Japanese who see things like Idaho’s recent mask burning protests are simply bewildered. Of course, people take their masks off when eating out, but still keep them on while ordering and waiting for food, and the “3C’s” messaging has also focused on improved ventilation in buildings and vehicles while this was ignored in many other countries (seems like pretty basic stuff for a highly contagious respiratory virus). The mix of policies (specifically the lack of testing and rapid testing) has led to Japan being one of the least effective East Asian countries in containing COVID (just compare it to Taiwan, South Korea, or China), but leagues better than the west. Some of that calculus has changed with B117 and other variants, especially those that spread more with children, you’re seeing now reports of community spread of these variants in schools being reported (Japan’s focus in cluster tracing, while it has been overwhelmed at times I believe can also be given a lot of credit for keeping numbers much lower than they would otherwise be).
- timr 6y ago
  > the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now I had something in there about this, but deleted it because I thought it was distracting from the main point, and any mention of masks brings out the politics. That said: I see an...well, let's just call it interesting...number of Japanese people socializing in small restaurants, bars, etc. without wearing masks. Likewise, it's really common to see TV talent wandering around Tokyo wearing no mask, or one of those teeny tiny transparent plastic chin-visor things [1]. I see it literally every day (via facebook, instagram, LINE, etc.) Try to wear one of those in a grocery store in San Francisco or New York. I dare you. Is this "proof"? No, of course not. But I do roll my eyes when people present Japan as a magical masking wonderland. The truth is more complicated. Just like New York or SF right now, people walk around with masks on the street, where they do ~no good. They then go inside to tiny, crowded bars and restaurants...and take off their masks. At the very least, this is all a bit overblown. (If you want my speculation, I think the fact that Japanese people have a culture of being quiet probably plays a bigger role than masks. There aren't a lot of people talking loudly in crowded public spaces. Except for bars and restaurants, people are quiet and respectful of shared space. One of the things I loved most about living there.) [1] https://p.globalsources.com/IMAGES/PDT/BIG/614/B1176919614.jpg https://p.globalsources.com/IMAGES/PDT/BIG/614/B1176919614.j...
  - strogonoff 6y ago
    > I see an...well, let's just call it interesting...number of Japanese people socializing in small restaurants, bars, etc. without wearing masks. Same in Seoul. When discussing this matter with friends located elsewhere, they seem to have difficulty believing this, but every cafe and restaurant will have 90%+ of visitors talking without masks after they finish eating until the time they leave. (Those sitting alone quietly reading a book will wear masks, ironically they’re the smallest threat.) Government has been dealing with this by temporarily forcing franchised shops to shut down, and later restricting working hours of coffeeshops and restaurants (a few in the area, mostly franchises, had to close forever), while people more or less continued to behave the same way throughout the pandemic if they manage to find a place open for eating in. At a cafe or a restaurant, it almost seems like it’s socially unacceptable to be conversing with a friend whilst wearing a mask. This makes little sense to me, especially since walking outdoors without a mask is perceived as taboo[0]. At some point public parks had sitting spaces and grass non-figuratively taped over with signs preventing people from gathering in fresh air, all the while restaurants stringing along park edges were visibly chock full of people gathering to talk indoors (I’ve taken a few photos as it was a shocking sight). Initially this made me furious as I saw pure malice in that arrangement; later someone told me that the government “just” wanted to not be liable for infections that occur in spaces under their direct jurisdiction. This persisted for months until people gradually started ignoring the tape in the park. The only place where everyone reliably wears a mask is buses: bus drivers monitor the cabin and seem to take this matter very seriously. If I’m to speculate, the reason it’s comparatively fine now is thanks to extensive testing and seemingly working contact tracing measures. [0] You’ll be judged unless you are stationary and smoking, in which case no one would bat an eye. Go figure!
chrischen 6y ago
Conversely to the US they've had pretty strict quarantine rules and since January completely blocked all immigration. However some have said their domestic travel campaign may have been worse for the virus than a few legal immigrants who had to quarantine and be tested before and after landing.
- timr 6y ago
  Absolutely. Again, veering into speculation: I think we're going to find out that the #1 most important thing any country did was to close the borders fast and hard before case counts became so large as to be unmanageable. Everything else is just nibbling around the edges of the problem. Of course, you have to ask yourself if the US ever could have done anything like that. There's pretty decent evidence that the virus was circulating silently in the US in late 2019. Even if we closed the borders on January 1, 2020, it was probably already too late. It's a lot easier to get ahead of that game when you aren't one of the world's leading international travel destinations.
greggman3 6y ago
> Nearly all have remained open Most places have followed the suggestions. For the last 2 months nearly every bar and restaurant has closed by 8pm. While being open at all might seem like a problem subtracting 2 to 8 hrs off opening time, especially 2hrs of the busiest times in Japan at least, reduces the number of people exposed reducing the R number. I live in Shibuya (one of the more busy places in Tokyo). I can walk out there right now (8:06pm) and show you that 95% or more of restaurants are closed. Even the ramen places (usually open til 5-6am) and places like Yoshinoya, Matsuya, etc (usually 24hrs) are closed. OTOH if I go walk down at 7:30pm (before they close) lots of places will be fairly full (60-100%) and of course most people have their masks off to eat and drink. Lots of places do have extra dividers between tables and/or between the kitchen area and everything else. As for fewer people using transit, that is not clear to me. You can look at the ridership numbers for the various train lines and compare them to before COVID. The numbers are at 80-90% ridership, at least during commute. Of course even 10% less ridership would lower R but rush hour is insane in Tokyo so I'm surprised the crowded rush out trains have not been a huge vector for spreading. All of this suggests something about Japan is different. It could be mask compliance. It's probably 98-99%. (where as for white foreigners I'd say it's around 75%). It could be that the changes are just enough to keep R low. I could be genetics (Japan is fairly homogenous)? It could relative health level? It could be cleanliness? update: took that walk. My guess is at least 80% of restaurants and bars were closed. I feel like if I'd counted places on the 2nd/3rd/4th/5th floors it would be higher. When the video zoom in on some sign it's to show the "20" for 20 o clock (ie, closes at 8pm). The video is 8:30 to 9pm, tonight, March 10th, 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d-gYk1unHU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d-gYk1unHU
- rnotaro 6y ago
  I'm pretty sure that the fact that Japan shut down international tourist (Even from Schengen Area and other countries with an exemption of Visa) helped their case. In Canada, we didn't had a lot of policies against air travelers until last month.

by timr 6y ago

lhl 6y ago

It’s true that Japan has done many non-optimal things, but the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now. Any Japanese who see things like Idaho’s recent mask burning protests are simply bewildered. Of course, people take their masks off when eating out, but still keep them on while ordering and waiting for food, and the “3C’s” messaging has also focused on improved ventilation in buildings and vehicles while this was ignored in many other countries (seems like pretty basic stuff for a highly contagious respiratory virus). The mix of policies (specifically the lack of testing and rapid testing) has led to Japan being one of the least effective East Asian countries in containing COVID (just compare it to Taiwan, South Korea, or China), but leagues better than the west. Some of that calculus has changed with B117 and other variants, especially those that spread more with children, you’re seeing now reports of community spread of these variants in schools being reported (Japan’s focus in cluster tracing, while it has been overwhelmed at times I believe can also be given a lot of credit for keeping numbers much lower than they would otherwise be).

timr 6y ago
> the biggest difference from the west IMO is that there has been close to 100% mask usage (eyeballing in Tokyo, about 95% surgical masks) for over a year now I had something in there about this, but deleted it because I thought it was distracting from the main point, and any mention of masks brings out the politics. That said: I see an...well, let's just call it interesting...number of Japanese people socializing in small restaurants, bars, etc. without wearing masks. Likewise, it's really common to see TV talent wandering around Tokyo wearing no mask, or one of those teeny tiny transparent plastic chin-visor things [1]. I see it literally every day (via facebook, instagram, LINE, etc.) Try to wear one of those in a grocery store in San Francisco or New York. I dare you. Is this "proof"? No, of course not. But I do roll my eyes when people present Japan as a magical masking wonderland. The truth is more complicated. Just like New York or SF right now, people walk around with masks on the street, where they do ~no good. They then go inside to tiny, crowded bars and restaurants...and take off their masks. At the very least, this is all a bit overblown. (If you want my speculation, I think the fact that Japanese people have a culture of being quiet probably plays a bigger role than masks. There aren't a lot of people talking loudly in crowded public spaces. Except for bars and restaurants, people are quiet and respectful of shared space. One of the things I loved most about living there.) [1] https://p.globalsources.com/IMAGES/PDT/BIG/614/B1176919614.jpg https://p.globalsources.com/IMAGES/PDT/BIG/614/B1176919614.j...
- strogonoff 6y ago
  > I see an...well, let's just call it interesting...number of Japanese people socializing in small restaurants, bars, etc. without wearing masks. Same in Seoul. When discussing this matter with friends located elsewhere, they seem to have difficulty believing this, but every cafe and restaurant will have 90%+ of visitors talking without masks after they finish eating until the time they leave. (Those sitting alone quietly reading a book will wear masks, ironically they’re the smallest threat.) Government has been dealing with this by temporarily forcing franchised shops to shut down, and later restricting working hours of coffeeshops and restaurants (a few in the area, mostly franchises, had to close forever), while people more or less continued to behave the same way throughout the pandemic if they manage to find a place open for eating in. At a cafe or a restaurant, it almost seems like it’s socially unacceptable to be conversing with a friend whilst wearing a mask. This makes little sense to me, especially since walking outdoors without a mask is perceived as taboo[0]. At some point public parks had sitting spaces and grass non-figuratively taped over with signs preventing people from gathering in fresh air, all the while restaurants stringing along park edges were visibly chock full of people gathering to talk indoors (I’ve taken a few photos as it was a shocking sight). Initially this made me furious as I saw pure malice in that arrangement; later someone told me that the government “just” wanted to not be liable for infections that occur in spaces under their direct jurisdiction. This persisted for months until people gradually started ignoring the tape in the park. The only place where everyone reliably wears a mask is buses: bus drivers monitor the cabin and seem to take this matter very seriously. If I’m to speculate, the reason it’s comparatively fine now is thanks to extensive testing and seemingly working contact tracing measures. [0] You’ll be judged unless you are stationary and smoking, in which case no one would bat an eye. Go figure!

chrischen 6y ago

Conversely to the US they've had pretty strict quarantine rules and since January completely blocked all immigration. However some have said their domestic travel campaign may have been worse for the virus than a few legal immigrants who had to quarantine and be tested before and after landing.

timr 6y ago
Absolutely. Again, veering into speculation: I think we're going to find out that the #1 most important thing any country did was to close the borders fast and hard before case counts became so large as to be unmanageable. Everything else is just nibbling around the edges of the problem. Of course, you have to ask yourself if the US ever could have done anything like that. There's pretty decent evidence that the virus was circulating silently in the US in late 2019. Even if we closed the borders on January 1, 2020, it was probably already too late. It's a lot easier to get ahead of that game when you aren't one of the world's leading international travel destinations.

greggman3 6y ago

> Nearly all have remained open Most places have followed the suggestions. For the last 2 months nearly every bar and restaurant has closed by 8pm. While being open at all might seem like a problem subtracting 2 to 8 hrs off opening time, especially 2hrs of the busiest times in Japan at least, reduces the number of people exposed reducing the R number. I live in Shibuya (one of the more busy places in Tokyo). I can walk out there right now (8:06pm) and show you that 95% or more of restaurants are closed. Even the ramen places (usually open til 5-6am) and places like Yoshinoya, Matsuya, etc (usually 24hrs) are closed. OTOH if I go walk down at 7:30pm (before they close) lots of places will be fairly full (60-100%) and of course most people have their masks off to eat and drink. Lots of places do have extra dividers between tables and/or between the kitchen area and everything else. As for fewer people using transit, that is not clear to me. You can look at the ridership numbers for the various train lines and compare them to before COVID. The numbers are at 80-90% ridership, at least during commute. Of course even 10% less ridership would lower R but rush hour is insane in Tokyo so I'm surprised the crowded rush out trains have not been a huge vector for spreading. All of this suggests something about Japan is different. It could be mask compliance. It's probably 98-99%. (where as for white foreigners I'd say it's around 75%). It could be that the changes are just enough to keep R low. I could be genetics (Japan is fairly homogenous)? It could relative health level? It could be cleanliness? update: took that walk. My guess is at least 80% of restaurants and bars were closed. I feel like if I'd counted places on the 2nd/3rd/4th/5th floors it would be higher. When the video zoom in on some sign it's to show the "20" for 20 o clock (ie, closes at 8pm). The video is 8:30 to 9pm, tonight, March 10th, 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d-gYk1unHU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d-gYk1unHU

rnotaro 6y ago
I'm pretty sure that the fact that Japan shut down international tourist (Even from Schengen Area and other countries with an exemption of Visa) helped their case. In Canada, we didn't had a lot of policies against air travelers until last month.