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At the end of the day, people are betting on what they believe (or throwing away their money for the lulz). I genuinely, no bullshit, think TSLA is more irrati

At the end of the day, people are betting on what they believe (or throwing away their money for the lulz). I genuinely, no bullshit, think TSLA is more irrational than GME, and has been for years. I put my money where my mouth is and I'm up 5x in 2 weeks. I know it won't last, but hey TSLA is crashing too. Nothing lasts forever.

deleted 6y ago
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tacheiordache 6y ago
Indeed nothing lasts forever but TSLA at least has something to show while GME's business is passé. TSLA is overpriced but at the moment it crashed and will jump back to new heights. Why not take advantage of the notoriety and make a gain yourself?
- Judgmentality 6y ago
  I think it's obvious that I am holding a substantial amount of GME right now, and I think I should disclose that. Ryan Cohen, the guy who founded Chewy, is on the board for GME and leading an initiative to transform Gamestop into an e-commerce store. In other words he wants to compete directly with Steam, and while many don't realize it yet, Amazon. And this is one of the only people in history who has successfully beat Amazon in a product category before. Chewy absolutely dominated the pet market for e-commerce. What I think Gamestop should do is compete directly with twitch, and set up an online game store on top of that. Basically do what twitch is doing but better, because twitch is shockingly bad for an Amazon acquisition. Then Gamestop could host online game tournaments, and they could even draw attention at local brick-and-mortar stores. They've got the real estate, they've got the brand recognition, and they've got the goodwill of the public right now (which is something you can't even buy, Amazon doesn't have that even with a trillion dollar market cap). I don't think this will happen. But if it did, GME would be ridiculously undervalued right now.
  - waprin 6y ago
    Competing with Twitch is not realistic and I’m surprised you think it’s bad. Facebook and Microsoft have both spent huge sums of money trying to and failed. And both those companies have deep engineering talent which GameStop does not and it will not be trivial to compete with those companies for engineers. Plus livestream is just really expensive in terms of compute and network costs. Finally and most importantly, Twitch has more network effects than people realize with its follower/subscriber ecosystem. Streamers spend a lot of time building that audience and make more money than you might expect when they do it, so it won’t be easy to pull them away.
    - Judgmentality 6y ago
      Everybody I know that uses twitch hates it. Like seriously, it's really bad. The conversations streamers have on discord are very different from what they'll say while streaming. They use it because there is no alternative. I am well aware that others have tried to compete and failed. But there is a market and nobody likes the only player. Eventually somebody is going to figure it out. And I am extremely confident it won't be Amazon. I'd short twitch in a heartbeat if it weren't propped up by the most valuable company on Earth.
      - candybar 6y ago
        What in particular do they hate about twitch and what type of streamers are they? (top, emerging, casual, etc). I too hear a lot of complaints about Twitch too but I feel that most of them have nothing to do with the product, but the zero-sum and competitive nature of gaming streaming. It's just difficult to succeed as a gaming streamer (or content creator more generally) and the vast majority of people who try will never make any meaningful amounts of money, so frustrations tend to be attributed to the arbitrary quirks of the platform, even though that's just the nature of any content business.
        Judgmentality 6y ago
        > What in particular do they hate about twitch and what type of streamers are they? (top, emerging, casual, etc). Everything and everyone. Seriously, even the people making literally millions on twitch hate the DMCA takedowns, the completely capricious bans, the ridiculous barrage of forced ads which twitch has straight up lied about, the fact that Amazon streamed anti-union ads on twitch and then pretended it was an accident, the fact that titty streamers get special priveleges...and that's what I thought of in just 30 seconds off the top of my head. twitch is fucking awful because it's owned by Amazon. It was great before the acquisition and shortly thereafter. I never said it was easy. I'm saying twitch fucking sucks and when somebody makes something that doesn't suck it will instantly be an 11 digit market cap company. Right now the most likely contender is Gamestop, even if I'd only put that at about a 1% chance of happening.
klodolph 6y ago
I agree that TSLA is irrational, and I think that this is true regardless of whether you think there are more gains to come. My impression of TSLA investors is that many of them just want to be a part of the future, and many others are trying to make money off the volatility & irrationality.
- elliekelly 6y ago
  I think the cult of personality plays a part in it, too. Tesla makes cool, futuristic cars and has a rabid user base (and even a rabid fan base of people who can’t afford to be users) but even still I don’t think the valuation would be anywhere near where it is today without all of the Musk super fans & Musk initially fanning the flames with his war against short-sellers.
  - thaumasiotes 6y ago
    Yes. Weird effects in the stock market just reflect consumer interest in the stock market. If you think Michael Jordan is cool, you express that by buying his shoes. If you think Elon Musk is cool, you express that by buying his stock. But that's not a comment on the value of the stock. It's branding.
- deleted 6y ago
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hellbannedguy 6y ago
GME is going back up right now. I don’t believe it’s disenfranchised Reddit young people anymore (if it ever was?). I guarantee there’s hedge funds who infiltrated the group playing up this one. Fictional fresh faced MBA from Jamie Diamond‘s outfit, “too the moon homie. Hold forever. They can take my wife, but not my GME. We tards are bringing down Capatalism.” (I used the T word because that the vernacular they use.) I find it sad that the Retail naive investors will get fleeced again, but by professional billionaire trading outfits.
- MagnumOpus 6y ago
  No one from JPM or even big hedge funds was involved -- this is the one single thing that compliance and legal departments would be all over, so any well-regulated outfit with a compliance department would have staid well away from pump&dump. (The JPMs and Citadels made money from market making on stocks and options - there they made a year's worth of profits in a week.) You are likely right that finance bros were (and still are) behind the polished 24/7 rocket memes, but they were likely small single-PM funds and non-regulated private players, posting behind 7 proxies to provide anonymity and plausible deniability against the SEC.
  - Pyramus 6y ago
    From what I've heard and read Wall St was heavily involved - I'm not sure why you think this would be a compliance issue?
    - UncleMeat 6y ago
      A bank going on reddit to try to influence public behavior and therefore the price of a stock so they can make money is definitely illegal. A competent legal department would reject an organized attempt to do this. This is why many people believe that it is "finance bros" doing this on their own in their spare time rather than somebody at JPM leading a team to do it.
camjohnson26 6y ago
All this retail interest in meme stocks is gambling, plain and simple. More people entering the market creates a Ponzi effect where new entrants pay for the gains of holders, but by definition this is unsustainable. You can see this basically everywhere in the economy but the meme stocks are the most obvious. Not financial advice, I thought Tesla was laughably over valued at $40 a share, never bet more than you’re willing to lose.
- Judgmentality 6y ago
  Investing in any stock is gambling, plain and simple. The only difference is your risk tolerance. Remember when it was impossible for real estate investments to lose money 15 years ago?
  - camjohnson26 6y ago
    Gambling is when you take big risks with hope for a big payoff. It’s possible to invest in the stock market and limit risk by diversifying and hedging positions, but how many meme stock investors are doing that? It’s much more likely to see people yoloing their life savings on Tesla or GME and hoping to retire from the windfall. Not going to be pretty if stocks ever go down again.
  - philihp 6y ago
    Gambling is when the house has an edge, and you will statistically lose in the long run. Investing is when you have the edge.
    - ManifestTendy 6y ago
      Would you consider placing your life savings on 100 1:3 payout coin flips investing?
  - UncleMeat 6y ago
    If your goal is to own a productive asset, it is investing. If your goal is to ride the price fluctuations of an asset, it is gambling.
elif 6y ago
TSLA is crashing because TSLA is not worth more than the rest of the top 10 manufacturers combined, as their market cap would suggest. Other notable differences include actively building the largest and most advanced factories on every major continent, disrupting the entire automobile industry such that even jaguar is going full electric by 2025, mainstreaming self-driving, and cutting the costs of residential solar in half. Meanwhile, gamestop is trying to make a profit out of a portfolio of dusty commercial real estate.
- ludocode 6y ago
  > actively building the largest and most advanced factories on every major continent They are not the most advanced factories, not even close. Tesla uses much more human labor per vehicle than its competitors; the "alien dreadnought" never materialized. "Toyota remains well ahead of Tesla in terms of manufacturing efficiency, producing more vehicles per employee, while utilizing its fixed assets and inventory more effectively": https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/02/11/comparing-tesla-with-toyota/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/02/11/co... > disrupting the entire automobile industry such that even jaguar is going full electric by 2025 The industry shift towards electric vehicles is because it's finally becoming profitable to make them. This is largely due to a dramatic reduction in battery costs which is driven by R&D for smartphones, not cars. Personally I don't believe Tesla has much to do with it. > mainstreaming self-driving They are mainstreaming dangerous driver assistance technologies well before they are ready because they've been pre-selling "full self driving" for years. They are nowhere close to completing an autonomous cross-country drive, something they promised would be done five years ago. Waymo is far ahead of Tesla on self-driving technology. > cutting the costs of residential solar in half I'm not sure there's even any point in arguing this because solar is an insignificant fraction of their business. They are a car manufacturer, nothing more. But in my personal opinion, I think the SolarCity acquisition was a fraudulent bailout of Musk's family, the solar shingles were mostly a sham, and Tesla has no significant proprietary solar technology at all.
  - Judgmentality 6y ago
    > The industry shift towards electric vehicles is because it's finally becoming profitable to make them. This is largely due to a dramatic reduction in battery costs which is driven by R&D for smartphones, not cars. Personally I don't believe Tesla has much to do with it. As much as I agree with the rest of your comment, I have to disagree with this part. Yes, there is a shift towards profitability with electric vehicles now and that has a lot to do with battery advancements from smartphones. But EVs still aren't exactly profitable, and when they are it's usually because of tax credits (granted that still counts, but it's important to mention). It's important to remember traditional automobile manufacturers have decades of accumulated knowledge from spending hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars, on R&D for the internal combustion engine. Their processes are set up for it. Their tooling is set up for it. And more importantly, their business model which almost always focuses on maintenance costs is set up for it. It's like how Kodak invented the digital camera, but decided to continue with their legacy business because they were already set up for it. There are many things I dislike about Tesla. But I genuinely believe they are responsible for bringing EVs to market ~3 years before it would have happened without them.
bpodgursky 6y ago
You probably shouldn't check out TSLA today then.

deleted 6y ago

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tacheiordache 6y ago

Indeed nothing lasts forever but TSLA at least has something to show while GME's business is passé. TSLA is overpriced but at the moment it crashed and will jump back to new heights. Why not take advantage of the notoriety and make a gain yourself?

Judgmentality 6y ago
I think it's obvious that I am holding a substantial amount of GME right now, and I think I should disclose that. Ryan Cohen, the guy who founded Chewy, is on the board for GME and leading an initiative to transform Gamestop into an e-commerce store. In other words he wants to compete directly with Steam, and while many don't realize it yet, Amazon. And this is one of the only people in history who has successfully beat Amazon in a product category before. Chewy absolutely dominated the pet market for e-commerce. What I think Gamestop should do is compete directly with twitch, and set up an online game store on top of that. Basically do what twitch is doing but better, because twitch is shockingly bad for an Amazon acquisition. Then Gamestop could host online game tournaments, and they could even draw attention at local brick-and-mortar stores. They've got the real estate, they've got the brand recognition, and they've got the goodwill of the public right now (which is something you can't even buy, Amazon doesn't have that even with a trillion dollar market cap). I don't think this will happen. But if it did, GME would be ridiculously undervalued right now.
- waprin 6y ago
  Competing with Twitch is not realistic and I’m surprised you think it’s bad. Facebook and Microsoft have both spent huge sums of money trying to and failed. And both those companies have deep engineering talent which GameStop does not and it will not be trivial to compete with those companies for engineers. Plus livestream is just really expensive in terms of compute and network costs. Finally and most importantly, Twitch has more network effects than people realize with its follower/subscriber ecosystem. Streamers spend a lot of time building that audience and make more money than you might expect when they do it, so it won’t be easy to pull them away.
  - Judgmentality 6y ago
    Everybody I know that uses twitch hates it. Like seriously, it's really bad. The conversations streamers have on discord are very different from what they'll say while streaming. They use it because there is no alternative. I am well aware that others have tried to compete and failed. But there is a market and nobody likes the only player. Eventually somebody is going to figure it out. And I am extremely confident it won't be Amazon. I'd short twitch in a heartbeat if it weren't propped up by the most valuable company on Earth.
    - candybar 6y ago
      What in particular do they hate about twitch and what type of streamers are they? (top, emerging, casual, etc). I too hear a lot of complaints about Twitch too but I feel that most of them have nothing to do with the product, but the zero-sum and competitive nature of gaming streaming. It's just difficult to succeed as a gaming streamer (or content creator more generally) and the vast majority of people who try will never make any meaningful amounts of money, so frustrations tend to be attributed to the arbitrary quirks of the platform, even though that's just the nature of any content business.
      - Judgmentality 6y ago
        > What in particular do they hate about twitch and what type of streamers are they? (top, emerging, casual, etc). Everything and everyone. Seriously, even the people making literally millions on twitch hate the DMCA takedowns, the completely capricious bans, the ridiculous barrage of forced ads which twitch has straight up lied about, the fact that Amazon streamed anti-union ads on twitch and then pretended it was an accident, the fact that titty streamers get special priveleges...and that's what I thought of in just 30 seconds off the top of my head. twitch is fucking awful because it's owned by Amazon. It was great before the acquisition and shortly thereafter. I never said it was easy. I'm saying twitch fucking sucks and when somebody makes something that doesn't suck it will instantly be an 11 digit market cap company. Right now the most likely contender is Gamestop, even if I'd only put that at about a 1% chance of happening.

klodolph 6y ago

I agree that TSLA is irrational, and I think that this is true regardless of whether you think there are more gains to come. My impression of TSLA investors is that many of them just want to be a part of the future, and many others are trying to make money off the volatility & irrationality.

elliekelly 6y ago
I think the cult of personality plays a part in it, too. Tesla makes cool, futuristic cars and has a rabid user base (and even a rabid fan base of people who can’t afford to be users) but even still I don’t think the valuation would be anywhere near where it is today without all of the Musk super fans & Musk initially fanning the flames with his war against short-sellers.
- thaumasiotes 6y ago
  Yes. Weird effects in the stock market just reflect consumer interest in the stock market. If you think Michael Jordan is cool, you express that by buying his shoes. If you think Elon Musk is cool, you express that by buying his stock. But that's not a comment on the value of the stock. It's branding.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

hellbannedguy 6y ago

GME is going back up right now. I don’t believe it’s disenfranchised Reddit young people anymore (if it ever was?). I guarantee there’s hedge funds who infiltrated the group playing up this one. Fictional fresh faced MBA from Jamie Diamond‘s outfit, “too the moon homie. Hold forever. They can take my wife, but not my GME. We tards are bringing down Capatalism.” (I used the T word because that the vernacular they use.) I find it sad that the Retail naive investors will get fleeced again, but by professional billionaire trading outfits.

MagnumOpus 6y ago
No one from JPM or even big hedge funds was involved -- this is the one single thing that compliance and legal departments would be all over, so any well-regulated outfit with a compliance department would have staid well away from pump&dump. (The JPMs and Citadels made money from market making on stocks and options - there they made a year's worth of profits in a week.) You are likely right that finance bros were (and still are) behind the polished 24/7 rocket memes, but they were likely small single-PM funds and non-regulated private players, posting behind 7 proxies to provide anonymity and plausible deniability against the SEC.
- Pyramus 6y ago
  From what I've heard and read Wall St was heavily involved - I'm not sure why you think this would be a compliance issue?
  - UncleMeat 6y ago
    A bank going on reddit to try to influence public behavior and therefore the price of a stock so they can make money is definitely illegal. A competent legal department would reject an organized attempt to do this. This is why many people believe that it is "finance bros" doing this on their own in their spare time rather than somebody at JPM leading a team to do it.

camjohnson26 6y ago

All this retail interest in meme stocks is gambling, plain and simple. More people entering the market creates a Ponzi effect where new entrants pay for the gains of holders, but by definition this is unsustainable. You can see this basically everywhere in the economy but the meme stocks are the most obvious. Not financial advice, I thought Tesla was laughably over valued at $40 a share, never bet more than you’re willing to lose.

Judgmentality 6y ago
Investing in any stock is gambling, plain and simple. The only difference is your risk tolerance. Remember when it was impossible for real estate investments to lose money 15 years ago?
- camjohnson26 6y ago
  Gambling is when you take big risks with hope for a big payoff. It’s possible to invest in the stock market and limit risk by diversifying and hedging positions, but how many meme stock investors are doing that? It’s much more likely to see people yoloing their life savings on Tesla or GME and hoping to retire from the windfall. Not going to be pretty if stocks ever go down again.
- philihp 6y ago
  Gambling is when the house has an edge, and you will statistically lose in the long run. Investing is when you have the edge.
  - ManifestTendy 6y ago
    Would you consider placing your life savings on 100 1:3 payout coin flips investing?
- UncleMeat 6y ago
  If your goal is to own a productive asset, it is investing. If your goal is to ride the price fluctuations of an asset, it is gambling.

elif 6y ago

TSLA is crashing because TSLA is not worth more than the rest of the top 10 manufacturers combined, as their market cap would suggest. Other notable differences include actively building the largest and most advanced factories on every major continent, disrupting the entire automobile industry such that even jaguar is going full electric by 2025, mainstreaming self-driving, and cutting the costs of residential solar in half. Meanwhile, gamestop is trying to make a profit out of a portfolio of dusty commercial real estate.

ludocode 6y ago
> actively building the largest and most advanced factories on every major continent They are not the most advanced factories, not even close. Tesla uses much more human labor per vehicle than its competitors; the "alien dreadnought" never materialized. "Toyota remains well ahead of Tesla in terms of manufacturing efficiency, producing more vehicles per employee, while utilizing its fixed assets and inventory more effectively": https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/02/11/comparing-tesla-with-toyota/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/02/11/co... > disrupting the entire automobile industry such that even jaguar is going full electric by 2025 The industry shift towards electric vehicles is because it's finally becoming profitable to make them. This is largely due to a dramatic reduction in battery costs which is driven by R&D for smartphones, not cars. Personally I don't believe Tesla has much to do with it. > mainstreaming self-driving They are mainstreaming dangerous driver assistance technologies well before they are ready because they've been pre-selling "full self driving" for years. They are nowhere close to completing an autonomous cross-country drive, something they promised would be done five years ago. Waymo is far ahead of Tesla on self-driving technology. > cutting the costs of residential solar in half I'm not sure there's even any point in arguing this because solar is an insignificant fraction of their business. They are a car manufacturer, nothing more. But in my personal opinion, I think the SolarCity acquisition was a fraudulent bailout of Musk's family, the solar shingles were mostly a sham, and Tesla has no significant proprietary solar technology at all.
- Judgmentality 6y ago
  > The industry shift towards electric vehicles is because it's finally becoming profitable to make them. This is largely due to a dramatic reduction in battery costs which is driven by R&D for smartphones, not cars. Personally I don't believe Tesla has much to do with it. As much as I agree with the rest of your comment, I have to disagree with this part. Yes, there is a shift towards profitability with electric vehicles now and that has a lot to do with battery advancements from smartphones. But EVs still aren't exactly profitable, and when they are it's usually because of tax credits (granted that still counts, but it's important to mention). It's important to remember traditional automobile manufacturers have decades of accumulated knowledge from spending hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars, on R&D for the internal combustion engine. Their processes are set up for it. Their tooling is set up for it. And more importantly, their business model which almost always focuses on maintenance costs is set up for it. It's like how Kodak invented the digital camera, but decided to continue with their legacy business because they were already set up for it. There are many things I dislike about Tesla. But I genuinely believe they are responsible for bringing EVs to market ~3 years before it would have happened without them.

bpodgursky 6y ago

You probably shouldn't check out TSLA today then.