5 ms·

I think that plan will backfire. Look at Detroit. Secondly, everyone will draw different conclusions when looking at the same data.

bpodgursky 6y ago
For better or for worse, accurate or inaccurate, there were two lessons pretty universally drawn from Detroit: (1) White flight is very, very bad news, and (2) Heavy unionization makes factories uncompetitive. Especially (2) -- again, I'm not saying whether this is the right or wrong conclusion -- weighs heavily on the states that picked up auto manufacturing that fled Detroit. Obviously there are contrarian takes, but these have very wide mindshare, and I don't think it's true that "everyone will draw different conclusions".
- ghaff 6y ago
  I'm not sure factories closing down in the Bay Area is a big issue as there aren't a lot. The bigger issue is upper middle class and upper class people and their taxes leaving. On the other hand, the area generally (if not necessarily just SF proper) has a lot of attractions that Detroit never had. So it's reasonable to assume that housing prices could drop to a more sustainable level. Of course, one implication is that municipalities would probably have to operate on lower budgets than they do today. In general, SF and Bay Area are not necessarily the same story. Plenty may choose to live in South Bay especially if prices drop but not in the city.
creato 6y ago
I don't think San Francisco will ever be Detroit. The geography constrained SF from physically expanding to the point where it can't sustain itself, unlike Detroit. I think more likely is hitting some low point, and then a crackdown/reversal of the politics. I think a more apt analogy is SF now is like NYC in the 80s, and the 90s cleanup is coming sooner or later.
- almost_usual 6y ago
  If strip clubs and peep shows replace all these empty retail fronts we’ll get there. Sounds like open liquor laws will be a go post covid. Party time.
  - dmix 6y ago
    Isn’t SF zoning and city laws much more NIMBY and less objectively progressive than the cities reputation? I thought that’s why it’s so dirty and full of obvious problems like petty crime and homelessness. A local political system disconnected from solving the IRL problems. You’re right though. The solution to SF is actual liberalism of laws around the fun stuff and help for those in need to get them out of the cycle of criminality by being more reasonable with them (shelters and safe injection sites with opiate programs so they don’t have to steal and destroy i property in order to live). I could see the latter happening like it is here in Canada (there’s always that homeless/career criminal niche everywhere) although it seems like 10x higher out on the west coast and given the tax rate as it is already super high idk if they have the appetite to do the right thing and cut other useless stuff to offset it.
mdgrech23 6y ago
As a Detroiter I'm curios to hear why you think Detroit went the way it did.
- seppin 6y ago
  It lost all it's industry
- Kalium 6y ago
  Over-dependency on a single industry, unwillingness to diversify, and an arrogant assumption that the same work could never be done elsewhere. Add in highways, commuting, and an infrastructure maintenance death spiral as domestic car production lost its major advantages. Rising crime added to the death spiral, as people who could moved out and the general deprivation of Detroit grew. Many of the suburbs developed their own economies, which further encouraged people to move there instead of Detroit proper. Lots of racism played its part in various ways. Lots of room to debate the precise degree, though the debate is probably not helpful at this point. These days the high taxes (property and income) and auto insurance rates are big problems. Only a few of these really apply to SF. Though the arrogance of assuming the good times will roll on forever seems accurate.
  - mcguire 6y ago
    "Over-dependency on a single industry, unwillingness to diversify, and an arrogant assumption that the same work could never be done elsewhere." Like San Francisco?
    - Kalium 6y ago
      Only to the extent that San Francisco is over-dependent on tourism. "Tech" is both not really a single industry in the way that auto mfg is and far less dominant than one might guess. Though if you can convince me that Salesforce and Autodesk are meaningfully in the same industry as Spring and LendingClub, I'm all ears.
      - 6y ago

bpodgursky 6y ago

For better or for worse, accurate or inaccurate, there were two lessons pretty universally drawn from Detroit: (1) White flight is very, very bad news, and (2) Heavy unionization makes factories uncompetitive. Especially (2) -- again, I'm not saying whether this is the right or wrong conclusion -- weighs heavily on the states that picked up auto manufacturing that fled Detroit. Obviously there are contrarian takes, but these have very wide mindshare, and I don't think it's true that "everyone will draw different conclusions".

ghaff 6y ago
I'm not sure factories closing down in the Bay Area is a big issue as there aren't a lot. The bigger issue is upper middle class and upper class people and their taxes leaving. On the other hand, the area generally (if not necessarily just SF proper) has a lot of attractions that Detroit never had. So it's reasonable to assume that housing prices could drop to a more sustainable level. Of course, one implication is that municipalities would probably have to operate on lower budgets than they do today. In general, SF and Bay Area are not necessarily the same story. Plenty may choose to live in South Bay especially if prices drop but not in the city.

creato 6y ago

I don't think San Francisco will ever be Detroit. The geography constrained SF from physically expanding to the point where it can't sustain itself, unlike Detroit. I think more likely is hitting some low point, and then a crackdown/reversal of the politics. I think a more apt analogy is SF now is like NYC in the 80s, and the 90s cleanup is coming sooner or later.

almost_usual 6y ago
If strip clubs and peep shows replace all these empty retail fronts we’ll get there. Sounds like open liquor laws will be a go post covid. Party time.
- dmix 6y ago
  Isn’t SF zoning and city laws much more NIMBY and less objectively progressive than the cities reputation? I thought that’s why it’s so dirty and full of obvious problems like petty crime and homelessness. A local political system disconnected from solving the IRL problems. You’re right though. The solution to SF is actual liberalism of laws around the fun stuff and help for those in need to get them out of the cycle of criminality by being more reasonable with them (shelters and safe injection sites with opiate programs so they don’t have to steal and destroy i property in order to live). I could see the latter happening like it is here in Canada (there’s always that homeless/career criminal niche everywhere) although it seems like 10x higher out on the west coast and given the tax rate as it is already super high idk if they have the appetite to do the right thing and cut other useless stuff to offset it.

mdgrech23 6y ago

As a Detroiter I'm curios to hear why you think Detroit went the way it did.

seppin 6y ago
It lost all it's industry
Kalium 6y ago
Over-dependency on a single industry, unwillingness to diversify, and an arrogant assumption that the same work could never be done elsewhere. Add in highways, commuting, and an infrastructure maintenance death spiral as domestic car production lost its major advantages. Rising crime added to the death spiral, as people who could moved out and the general deprivation of Detroit grew. Many of the suburbs developed their own economies, which further encouraged people to move there instead of Detroit proper. Lots of racism played its part in various ways. Lots of room to debate the precise degree, though the debate is probably not helpful at this point. These days the high taxes (property and income) and auto insurance rates are big problems. Only a few of these really apply to SF. Though the arrogance of assuming the good times will roll on forever seems accurate.
- mcguire 6y ago
  "Over-dependency on a single industry, unwillingness to diversify, and an arrogant assumption that the same work could never be done elsewhere." Like San Francisco?
  - Kalium 6y ago
    Only to the extent that San Francisco is over-dependent on tourism. "Tech" is both not really a single industry in the way that auto mfg is and far less dominant than one might guess. Though if you can convince me that Salesforce and Autodesk are meaningfully in the same industry as Spring and LendingClub, I'm all ears.
    - 6y ago