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And then what happens to their channel sales partners who survive off events like GPU and CPU launches? They just go out of business? Also: Nvidia couldn't in

by tw04 6y ago

And then what happens to their channel sales partners who survive off events like GPU and CPU launches? They just go out of business? Also: Nvidia couldn't increase production quantity if they wanted, this isn't a money problem. The only way for them to produce more GPUs at this point is to build fabs, and that will take years. TSMC isn't going to break their contract with Apple regardless of how much money Nvidia shows up to the table with.

zokier 6y ago
> Also: Nvidia couldn't increase production quantity if they wanted, this isn't a money problem. The only way for them to produce more GPUs at this point is to build fabs, and that will take years. TSMC isn't going to break their contract with Apple regardless of how much money Nvidia shows up to the table with. That is very short-term thinking; taking years is still eventually.
- tw04 6y ago
  Nvidia doesn't need more money for R&D, the limited supply has absolutely nothing to do with lack of resources to invest in manufacturing capacity. They have a combination of two things: There's no planet on which they are going to base their future plans on crypto mining. End of story. The market is far too volatile for them to bet the company on it. Another couple million in the bank from auctioning off cards isn't going to change that. You're talking 10s of BILLIONS of dollars for fabs all to meet crypto mining demand? And oh, by the way, the faster they ramp up supply, the faster demand for the GPU goes down due to increased complexity of mining. They have yield issues with the current generation chips. The only way that solves itself is through time, money won't improve the process, experience is the only fix. You also failed to address what happens to all their retail partners who you've conveniently decided should be cut out.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    This is the same logic people applied in the last crypto mining shortage. There will be more and more of those in the future as Bitcoins valuation becomes dumber and dumber. But I don't have to care since I am not an angry person on the internet who insists on buying a high end GPU for low prices while there aren't enough of them around. I bought an overpriced RX 570 years ago during the last mining boom and I am happy with it.
- ravi-delia 6y ago
  Of course it's short term thinking, the spike in demand is short term. If it's raining out, people will want umbrellas. That doesn't mean that you should invest your life savings and 10 years into building an umbrella factory because it's rainy for two days in a row. Consistent demand spikes result in supply increases over the long run, but bumps in the road like this just don't.
  - imtringued 6y ago
    If this analysis is correct then be happy with the lack of GPUs.
imtringued 6y ago
>Also: Nvidia couldn't increase production quantity if they wanted, this isn't a money problem. There is a problem with this logic. If there is no money problem why haven't they expanded production ahead of time? Well, probably because there is no money in expanding production, so yes it's a money problem. If it takes 5 years to build a fab and there is no reason to build a fab since there is no money to be made then why would you build a fab in any situation, even if you are willing to wait 5 years? The answer is you don't build the fab and accept that there will be a shortage in the future. Since there are not enough GPUs that's what you will have to live with instead of complaining that there aren't enough GPUs.

by tw04 6y ago

zokier 6y ago

> Also: Nvidia couldn't increase production quantity if they wanted, this isn't a money problem. The only way for them to produce more GPUs at this point is to build fabs, and that will take years. TSMC isn't going to break their contract with Apple regardless of how much money Nvidia shows up to the table with. That is very short-term thinking; taking years is still eventually.

tw04 6y ago
Nvidia doesn't need more money for R&D, the limited supply has absolutely nothing to do with lack of resources to invest in manufacturing capacity. They have a combination of two things: There's no planet on which they are going to base their future plans on crypto mining. End of story. The market is far too volatile for them to bet the company on it. Another couple million in the bank from auctioning off cards isn't going to change that. You're talking 10s of BILLIONS of dollars for fabs all to meet crypto mining demand? And oh, by the way, the faster they ramp up supply, the faster demand for the GPU goes down due to increased complexity of mining. They have yield issues with the current generation chips. The only way that solves itself is through time, money won't improve the process, experience is the only fix. You also failed to address what happens to all their retail partners who you've conveniently decided should be cut out.
- imtringued 6y ago
  This is the same logic people applied in the last crypto mining shortage. There will be more and more of those in the future as Bitcoins valuation becomes dumber and dumber. But I don't have to care since I am not an angry person on the internet who insists on buying a high end GPU for low prices while there aren't enough of them around. I bought an overpriced RX 570 years ago during the last mining boom and I am happy with it.
ravi-delia 6y ago
Of course it's short term thinking, the spike in demand is short term. If it's raining out, people will want umbrellas. That doesn't mean that you should invest your life savings and 10 years into building an umbrella factory because it's rainy for two days in a row. Consistent demand spikes result in supply increases over the long run, but bumps in the road like this just don't.
- imtringued 6y ago
  If this analysis is correct then be happy with the lack of GPUs.

imtringued 6y ago

>Also: Nvidia couldn't increase production quantity if they wanted, this isn't a money problem. There is a problem with this logic. If there is no money problem why haven't they expanded production ahead of time? Well, probably because there is no money in expanding production, so yes it's a money problem. If it takes 5 years to build a fab and there is no reason to build a fab since there is no money to be made then why would you build a fab in any situation, even if you are willing to wait 5 years? The answer is you don't build the fab and accept that there will be a shortage in the future. Since there are not enough GPUs that's what you will have to live with instead of complaining that there aren't enough GPUs.