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Excess mortality for the elderly in Israel in the last 6 weeks is the highest it's been (by far) in the last 5 years. Check euroMOMO https://www.euromomo.eu/gra

Excess mortality for the elderly in Israel in the last 6 weeks is the highest it's been (by far) in the last 5 years. Check euroMOMO https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Daishiman 6y ago
Given that mortality comes usually between 3 to 8 weeks after infection it makes total sense.
- TedPetrou 6y ago
  Does it also make sense that they are currently ranked #2 in the world in cases per million in the last week for countries with more that 1 million population? This is even after a down week in cases. Next door Lebanon is seeing cases fall at the same or faster pace and they peaked at the same time as Israel. Lebanon has yet to start vaccinating. Case fatality rate has not fallen either. You would expect a huge drop in CFR if the elderly were protected, but this hasn't been the case.
  - wittyreference 6y ago
    Israel's issue has been and continues to be a very large orthodox and ultra-orthodox community which has flouted all quarantine laws and appeals to vaccination, in a tiny dense country where said orthodox and ultra-orthodox can't be meaningfully avoided. That said, their statistics regarding the symptomatic case rate speak for themselves.
    - TedPetrou 6y ago
      So you admit that total case numbers are not very good, particularly compared to a neighboring country that has not started vaccinating. Thats a good first step. Scapegoating the orthodox jews? More than 92% of 70+ in Israel have received both doses of the vaccine. Are you blaming the high number of cases on this very small segment? What happens when elderly all cause mortality is elevated substantially in 2021? This is the ultimate test for the vaccine.
  - xadhominemx 6y ago
    It’s not that hard to understand. People usually die several weeks after exposure. Only 27% of the population has received both doses; a few weeks ago that number was much smaller. In addition, the ultra orthodox community has continued to flout rules on a nearly universal basis. I’m going to go check your comment history — pretty sure you’ll have been wrong about everything related to COVID so far. Edit: shocked (not shocked) you were an early COVID vaccine skeptic, justified your belief with poor interpretation of statistics, and now that a huge amount of data have validated initial findings, you have instead decided to double down on your original gut feel!
    - TedPetrou 6y ago
      "Only 27% of the population received both doses". This is a misinterpretation. It's like saying 0.5% die of covid. The vaccinations (and fatality rates) are extremely stratified by age. Over 50% of the 70+ group received at least one vaccination by the third week of January and close to 85% have received both doses as of today.
      - birken 6y ago
        You said cases were high. Case counts are going to depend on how quickly the age groups with the most cases get vaccinated, which is generally the younger population. So it is going to take a while for case counts to fall. Since a COVID death generally happens 5-8 weeks after exposure, what you'd expect is that once the high risk populations have been fully vaccinated, you'd start to see the death counts dropping 5-8 weeks later, and you'd start to see the hospitalization rates dropping 2-3 weeks later. Case counts are going to drop last because the high risk populations are not driving the majority of cases. Also I don't understand what point you are trying to prove? We have detailed clinical trials about the efficacy of the vaccines. We have strong evidence to believe they work. If you are trying to interpret the data to show this isn't the case, you are probably misinterpreting it because it would be going against what we think we know with a high degree of confidence. It doesn't mean we couldn't be wrong, but it is much more likely you are just misinterpreting the data.
    - adventured 6y ago
wittyreference 6y ago
That was a helpful link! Your comment is surprisingly true! And utterly out of context. As of today, Israel's deaths - both for the 65-and-overs and all-ages - is nearly down to its historical normal range, per your link. Going back two weeks there was a huge peak at a z-score of 9.7; and going back eight weeks it was at a statistically anomalous low, at a z-score of -2.2. I'd be tempted to point out the period of the low was the high holidays; the enormous deflection to positive slope started a week after the high holidays, and continued for three weeks. So, you know, "a bunch of people broke all quarantine for the high holidays and new year and did their level best to stay home rather than go to the doctor, and caused a giant spike, which has receded as the cases associated with that spike calmed down."
- TedPetrou 6y ago
  You spoke too soon and I hope you issue a correction. The last week of euroMOMO isn't nearly fully updated. All countries see an enormous drop in the last week that is then pulled back up to the actual level in the following weeks of released data. Did you notice the yellow background and the "Corrected for delay in registration". Edit: Here is an animation that shows the usual correction - https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1350079943863115777 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1350079943863115777
  - zekrioca 6y ago
    Got a "This is not available to you" page.
  - wittyreference 6y ago
    That was an interesting graphic, so I decided to revisit the Israeli graph on EuroMOMO. The delay in registration is for deaths that occur up until the week-end update; it is a one-week retrospective potential bump. The fall to baseline in Israel began three weeks ago, and has shown a continuous and steady slope. You spoke too late, and I hope you issue a correction.
ed_balls 6y ago
Keep it mind that without Covid there will be more death than in previous years. Baby boomers are dying.

Daishiman 6y ago

Given that mortality comes usually between 3 to 8 weeks after infection it makes total sense.

TedPetrou 6y ago
Does it also make sense that they are currently ranked #2 in the world in cases per million in the last week for countries with more that 1 million population? This is even after a down week in cases. Next door Lebanon is seeing cases fall at the same or faster pace and they peaked at the same time as Israel. Lebanon has yet to start vaccinating. Case fatality rate has not fallen either. You would expect a huge drop in CFR if the elderly were protected, but this hasn't been the case.
- wittyreference 6y ago
  Israel's issue has been and continues to be a very large orthodox and ultra-orthodox community which has flouted all quarantine laws and appeals to vaccination, in a tiny dense country where said orthodox and ultra-orthodox can't be meaningfully avoided. That said, their statistics regarding the symptomatic case rate speak for themselves.
  - TedPetrou 6y ago
    So you admit that total case numbers are not very good, particularly compared to a neighboring country that has not started vaccinating. Thats a good first step. Scapegoating the orthodox jews? More than 92% of 70+ in Israel have received both doses of the vaccine. Are you blaming the high number of cases on this very small segment? What happens when elderly all cause mortality is elevated substantially in 2021? This is the ultimate test for the vaccine.
- xadhominemx 6y ago
  It’s not that hard to understand. People usually die several weeks after exposure. Only 27% of the population has received both doses; a few weeks ago that number was much smaller. In addition, the ultra orthodox community has continued to flout rules on a nearly universal basis. I’m going to go check your comment history — pretty sure you’ll have been wrong about everything related to COVID so far. Edit: shocked (not shocked) you were an early COVID vaccine skeptic, justified your belief with poor interpretation of statistics, and now that a huge amount of data have validated initial findings, you have instead decided to double down on your original gut feel!
  - TedPetrou 6y ago
    "Only 27% of the population received both doses". This is a misinterpretation. It's like saying 0.5% die of covid. The vaccinations (and fatality rates) are extremely stratified by age. Over 50% of the 70+ group received at least one vaccination by the third week of January and close to 85% have received both doses as of today.
    - birken 6y ago
      You said cases were high. Case counts are going to depend on how quickly the age groups with the most cases get vaccinated, which is generally the younger population. So it is going to take a while for case counts to fall. Since a COVID death generally happens 5-8 weeks after exposure, what you'd expect is that once the high risk populations have been fully vaccinated, you'd start to see the death counts dropping 5-8 weeks later, and you'd start to see the hospitalization rates dropping 2-3 weeks later. Case counts are going to drop last because the high risk populations are not driving the majority of cases. Also I don't understand what point you are trying to prove? We have detailed clinical trials about the efficacy of the vaccines. We have strong evidence to believe they work. If you are trying to interpret the data to show this isn't the case, you are probably misinterpreting it because it would be going against what we think we know with a high degree of confidence. It doesn't mean we couldn't be wrong, but it is much more likely you are just misinterpreting the data.
  - adventured 6y ago

wittyreference 6y ago

That was a helpful link! Your comment is surprisingly true! And utterly out of context. As of today, Israel's deaths - both for the 65-and-overs and all-ages - is nearly down to its historical normal range, per your link. Going back two weeks there was a huge peak at a z-score of 9.7; and going back eight weeks it was at a statistically anomalous low, at a z-score of -2.2. I'd be tempted to point out the period of the low was the high holidays; the enormous deflection to positive slope started a week after the high holidays, and continued for three weeks. So, you know, "a bunch of people broke all quarantine for the high holidays and new year and did their level best to stay home rather than go to the doctor, and caused a giant spike, which has receded as the cases associated with that spike calmed down."

TedPetrou 6y ago
You spoke too soon and I hope you issue a correction. The last week of euroMOMO isn't nearly fully updated. All countries see an enormous drop in the last week that is then pulled back up to the actual level in the following weeks of released data. Did you notice the yellow background and the "Corrected for delay in registration". Edit: Here is an animation that shows the usual correction - https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1350079943863115777 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1350079943863115777
- zekrioca 6y ago
  Got a "This is not available to you" page.
- wittyreference 6y ago
  That was an interesting graphic, so I decided to revisit the Israeli graph on EuroMOMO. The delay in registration is for deaths that occur up until the week-end update; it is a one-week retrospective potential bump. The fall to baseline in Israel began three weeks ago, and has shown a continuous and steady slope. You spoke too late, and I hope you issue a correction.

ed_balls 6y ago

Keep it mind that without Covid there will be more death than in previous years. Baby boomers are dying.