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Here's my account, that might be survivorship bias. I also traded tech stocks and cryptos and was able to significantly beat the market on the former and quit (
by taway0125210 6y ago
Here's my account, that might be survivorship bias. I also traded tech stocks and cryptos and was able to significantly beat the market on the former and quit (also from Amazon) a few years ago.
I invested in NVidia after recognizing GPU shortages due to ML continuing hype.
I switched to AMD after recognizing their Zen CPUs are slowly beating Intel.
I switched to TSMC after realizing their accomplishments are significant part of M1 and Ryzen advantages.
My stock portfolio's growth is over +50% yoy over last five years on average (geomean).
The way I explain this to myself is that trading firms focus on economic fundamentals, which can not show upper hand in a specific technology. They are trying to recognize the later, but it requires understanding tech news articles, and best NLP AI methods are not there yet, whereas our brains can handle that task, especially if it is withing our own expertise.
If that theory is right, you can beat the market, but you have to be real expert in the area you are trying to trade in, and probably a few linked areas too.
- shouldiquitamzn 6y agoSo funny you say this. The two stocks that got me started were Shopify and data dog. I knew datadog was a great freshly IPOd cloud play, Shopify would boom due to the lockdowns. So I put a ton of money in Shopify calls at the March bottom, then rolled the profits into Data dog, then Apple and so on. It was absolutely my understanding of e-commerce that gave me the confidence. Also how lockdowns related to the cloud. It’s only been lately that I’ve taken shots on MEME stocks. Deep tech understanding, scouring cathie woods ARKK etf has been very profitable. But I think from a broader perspective, I’ve made huge leveraged bets on VTSAX/SPY/IWM on stimulus news. Very obvious that financial assets will inflate with each extra fed move.
- taway0125210 6y agoI am keeping my bets conservative. These were all long term (1+ years) except a few option trades. Consider this a hedge against the very phenomenon discussed in this article.
- ralfd 6y agoCan I subscribe to your newsletter? What is the next trend in your opinion?
- m3kw9 6y agoSo what’s next?
- m3kw9 6y agoI have the exact same thought, quants and AI cannot predict long term, and that’s where to compete. Didn’t think I’d find similarly thinking people out here, where do I find more to talk to?!
- thrwyoilarticle 6y agoThe market's complete lack of pricing-in the amazing reviews Zen received was enlightening.
- ragazzina 6y agoThe last few months I've often wondered if the same thing is happening with the M1.
- tootie 6y agoTrading firms do not focus on fundamentals. They have teams of industry experts doing the exact same kind of research you were doing.
- imtringued 6y agoIf trading firms merely focused on economic fundamentals then we would see far less bubbles. You have to abandon economic fundamentals to cause and take advantages of bubbles and an economy built on bubbles is not healthy. It's built on mania.