5 ms·

Children are almost immune from the virus. Everyone below 40 is also extremely extremely unlikely to die from the virus, just to a lesser extent.

by cthaeh 6y ago

reaperducer 6y ago
You might want to update. There were two studies out of Europe last week stating that children are just as likely to get the virus as adults.
- SamBam 6y ago
  I think the poster above you was talking about the chances of death from the virus, not simply the chance of infection. I think it's pretty well established at this point that the case fatality index for children is vastly lower than for older adults, about 0.1% for people under age 29. [1] 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/
  - nradov 6y ago
    The actual best estimate of infection fatality rate for people under age 29 is way less than 0.1%. 0-19 years: 0.003% 20-49 years: 0.02% https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
    - dnautics 6y ago
      And that's counting people who have bothered to get tested. If younger people are getting asymptomatic or minor symptom covid that looks like a cold, then the "true" ifr will be even lower
      - majewsky 6y ago
        Infection fatality rates are based on antibody seroprevalence studies and thus accounts for asymptomatic cases. What you're thinking of is the case fatality rate, not the infection fatality rate.
        dnautics 6y ago
        You can't get an accurate community seroprevalence measure when your community is told to shelter in place.
        nradov 6y ago
        Seroprevalence studies have been conducted all over the world. For example in Delhi India approximately 50-60% of the population now have antibodies for SARS-CoV-2. There are statistical techniques for adjusting the raw results based on population demographics. https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/delhi-may-be-heading-towards-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-suggests-fifth-round-of-sero-survey/article33662039.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/delhi-may-be-head... Note that seroprevalence studies will underestimate the number of infections because some recovered patients don't produce detectible levels of antibodies.
  - hanniabu 6y ago
    There's more to this virus than fatality. Many people that live will have debilitating aftereffects for the foreseeable future.
    - parineum 6y ago
      The virus hasn't been around long enough to make that claim.
rmk 6y ago
No one will pay the political price of causing infections among children by reopening rapidly. And I'd like to believe that as a society, we are cautious about letting children be infected with a novel disease whose long-term effects are unknown.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  I’m not sure your reading of the political climate is accurate. A lot of places have already reopened schools, and I’ve heard a lot of politicians explicitly say that they’re willing to pay the price because it’s not a big deal if kids get it. Maybe they’re wrong, but if you expect that there’ll be public support behind keeping things closed when the death and hospitalization rates start plummeting, I think you’d better readjust.
  - throwawayboise 6y ago
    > it’s not a big deal if kids get it The Academy of Pediatrics says this. It's not just some politicans who don't know anything about epidemology and likely have never even taken a college-level biology course.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - rmk 6y ago
    I'm not saying that places will be shut down completely. I was talking specifically about masking and physical distancing mandates and other such restrictions. I don't think big business and the public will tolerate losing another season of attending (in-person) Football, Baseball, Ice Hockey, <insert favorite sport here> games.
    - ryandrake 6y ago
      > I don't think big business and the public will tolerate losing another season The whole "COVID fatigue" thing is one of the craziest things I keep hearing with regard to this pandemic. The virus doesn't care if you're bored of the disease and "won't tolerate" staying home from more football games. It's not like it's just going to go away because we're tired of it! I sincerely hope governments aren't going to just open things up because 2021 is a different year and everyone's just really bummed of it all. Surely we have better sense than that.
IgorPartola 6y ago
First, that’s factually incorrect. Second, children can transmit COVID even if they don’t get severe cases. Ever send a kid to school or daycare and then spend a year or two sick with everything every child in that school or daycare had? Kids spread cold/flu like viruses probably faster than anyone.
- rmk 6y ago
  This is one of the problems with the newly-developed vaccines. It's not clear if they confer sterilizing immunity, so it's not clear if a smaller percentage of people getting the vaccine will stop the disease spreading. Therefore, it may be necessary to get most people vaccinated if we don't want the disease around at all.
- nogridbag 6y ago
  That has been true for us up until the pandemic - at least in our case. The combination of the school taking extra precautions and parents not sending sick kids to school is working. We've had our daughter in daycare for months with 1 total illness (minor cold). And in that case I believe it was from taking her to outdoor dining. Kids seem to touch every part of those restaurant high chairs which are never sanitized.
  - dnautics 6y ago
    > We've had our daughter in daycare for months with 1 total illness (minor cold) To be fair you can't be sure that wasn't covid, unless you have come up seronegative. Not every adult gets it bad
    - nogridbag 6y ago
      I get your point, but it's really a stretch. There's been no reported cases of covid at our school and the symptoms matched common cold. Sure I guess there's a chance it could have been some mild case of covid the same as it could have been flu or some other illness. Prior to the pandemic she used to be in a tiny school with 4-6 kids and 2 teachers and she was sick seemingly every other week. The difference seems to be the combination of teachers sanitizing everything, keeping kids in smaller groups, temperature checks, and parents not sending sick kids to school.

Children are almost immune from the virus. Everyone below 40 is also extremely extremely unlikely to die from the virus, just to a lesser extent.

by cthaeh 6y ago

Children are almost immune from the virus. Everyone below 40 is also extremely extremely unlikely to die from the virus, just to a lesser extent.

reaperducer 6y ago

You might want to update. There were two studies out of Europe last week stating that children are just as likely to get the virus as adults.

SamBam 6y ago
I think the poster above you was talking about the chances of death from the virus, not simply the chance of infection. I think it's pretty well established at this point that the case fatality index for children is vastly lower than for older adults, about 0.1% for people under age 29. [1] 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/
- nradov 6y ago
  The actual best estimate of infection fatality rate for people under age 29 is way less than 0.1%. 0-19 years: 0.003% 20-49 years: 0.02% https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
  - dnautics 6y ago
    And that's counting people who have bothered to get tested. If younger people are getting asymptomatic or minor symptom covid that looks like a cold, then the "true" ifr will be even lower
    - majewsky 6y ago
      Infection fatality rates are based on antibody seroprevalence studies and thus accounts for asymptomatic cases. What you're thinking of is the case fatality rate, not the infection fatality rate.
      - dnautics 6y ago
        You can't get an accurate community seroprevalence measure when your community is told to shelter in place.
        nradov 6y ago
        Seroprevalence studies have been conducted all over the world. For example in Delhi India approximately 50-60% of the population now have antibodies for SARS-CoV-2. There are statistical techniques for adjusting the raw results based on population demographics. https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/delhi-may-be-heading-towards-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-suggests-fifth-round-of-sero-survey/article33662039.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/delhi-may-be-head... Note that seroprevalence studies will underestimate the number of infections because some recovered patients don't produce detectible levels of antibodies.
- hanniabu 6y ago
  There's more to this virus than fatality. Many people that live will have debilitating aftereffects for the foreseeable future.
  - parineum 6y ago
    The virus hasn't been around long enough to make that claim.

rmk 6y ago

No one will pay the political price of causing infections among children by reopening rapidly. And I'd like to believe that as a society, we are cautious about letting children be infected with a novel disease whose long-term effects are unknown.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I’m not sure your reading of the political climate is accurate. A lot of places have already reopened schools, and I’ve heard a lot of politicians explicitly say that they’re willing to pay the price because it’s not a big deal if kids get it. Maybe they’re wrong, but if you expect that there’ll be public support behind keeping things closed when the death and hospitalization rates start plummeting, I think you’d better readjust.
- throwawayboise 6y ago
  > it’s not a big deal if kids get it The Academy of Pediatrics says this. It's not just some politicans who don't know anything about epidemology and likely have never even taken a college-level biology course.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- rmk 6y ago
  I'm not saying that places will be shut down completely. I was talking specifically about masking and physical distancing mandates and other such restrictions. I don't think big business and the public will tolerate losing another season of attending (in-person) Football, Baseball, Ice Hockey, <insert favorite sport here> games.
  - ryandrake 6y ago
    > I don't think big business and the public will tolerate losing another season The whole "COVID fatigue" thing is one of the craziest things I keep hearing with regard to this pandemic. The virus doesn't care if you're bored of the disease and "won't tolerate" staying home from more football games. It's not like it's just going to go away because we're tired of it! I sincerely hope governments aren't going to just open things up because 2021 is a different year and everyone's just really bummed of it all. Surely we have better sense than that.

IgorPartola 6y ago

First, that’s factually incorrect. Second, children can transmit COVID even if they don’t get severe cases. Ever send a kid to school or daycare and then spend a year or two sick with everything every child in that school or daycare had? Kids spread cold/flu like viruses probably faster than anyone.

rmk 6y ago
This is one of the problems with the newly-developed vaccines. It's not clear if they confer sterilizing immunity, so it's not clear if a smaller percentage of people getting the vaccine will stop the disease spreading. Therefore, it may be necessary to get most people vaccinated if we don't want the disease around at all.
nogridbag 6y ago
That has been true for us up until the pandemic - at least in our case. The combination of the school taking extra precautions and parents not sending sick kids to school is working. We've had our daughter in daycare for months with 1 total illness (minor cold). And in that case I believe it was from taking her to outdoor dining. Kids seem to touch every part of those restaurant high chairs which are never sanitized.
- dnautics 6y ago
  > We've had our daughter in daycare for months with 1 total illness (minor cold) To be fair you can't be sure that wasn't covid, unless you have come up seronegative. Not every adult gets it bad
  - nogridbag 6y ago
    I get your point, but it's really a stretch. There's been no reported cases of covid at our school and the symptoms matched common cold. Sure I guess there's a chance it could have been some mild case of covid the same as it could have been flu or some other illness. Prior to the pandemic she used to be in a tiny school with 4-6 kids and 2 teachers and she was sick seemingly every other week. The difference seems to be the combination of teachers sanitizing everything, keeping kids in smaller groups, temperature checks, and parents not sending sick kids to school.