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An interesting side-effect will be a potential market for crazy-cheap used ICE luxury cars. Once all of the high-earners demand EVs, the market will be flooded

by anewaccount2021 6y ago

An interesting side-effect will be a potential market for crazy-cheap used ICE luxury cars. Once all of the high-earners demand EVs, the market will be flooded with lightly-used luxury ICE vehicles. A year-old Bentley for $30k? The day might come as long as you are willing to be one of the ICE dinosaurs!

blackaspen 6y ago
I think we'll see the opposite -- ICE vehicles are going to go up in price as collectors items.
- WillPostForFood 6y ago
  You might be right for the high end (the Bentley example), but the middle/lower end of luxury isn't that interesting as a collectible, cars like a 5 series BMW, or Lexus LS, and could really drop in value.
  - pureliquidhw 6y ago
    Seeing how manual transmission cars from the mid aught's are demanding a massive premium (like 100%+ on 1,3, and 5-series), I could see in 2045 ICE cars demanding a premium. Manual ICE cars even more so. But that's assuming they aren't projected to be illegal/heavily taxed by then.
    - blackaspen 6y ago
      Yep -- already they do, speaking as someone trying to find a manual BMW Wagon. The supply is already gone and has been for a while. The other comment in this thread on ever-smarter (cloud connected) cars too means that the market for not-cloud-connected cars is going to continue to increase too.
      - Hamuko 6y ago
        My first car was a manual 316i wagon. There definitely wasn't a premium back then unless you compared it to a ratty Corolla.
- gedy 6y ago
  Especially if EVs continue down the "smart car" route with locked down firmwares, dealer-only maintenance, etc.
- adventured 6y ago
  It'll bifurcate as a market. Nice, collectible, lesser used ICE vehicles will go up in value, for collectors that can still afford to operate and own them. It'll be a wealthier person's hobby. For everyone else they'll have very little value and most of the market will become far more burden than it's worth (because there will be increasing environmental costs associated with operating them, selling/buying them, registering them, and disposing of them).
- redbeard0x0a 6y ago
  For some vehicles, yes. Such as: * Toyota Tacoma - yes * Subaru WRX STI - yes But getting into the honda accord, toyota camry, these are the ICE vehicles that are going to be crazy cheap.
netsharc 6y ago
They're probably going to set road tax really high for ICE cars in a decade or so... (although, that wouldn't help people who can't afford to buy an EV). Nowadays old cars and buses get exported to less developed countries, e.g. in Africa. So, there'll be a lot of Africans driving Bentley instead.
- anewaccount2021 6y ago
  I agree that once EVs break the $30k price barrier + time for market adoption, we will indeed see disincentives for owning an ICE car...but there will be enough time to get some years out of driving an ICE car bought at a bargain from some high-earner who can't handle the negative signal it sends to peers.
stevenae 6y ago
You can already get lightly-used Bentleys for $30k -- https://bringatrailer.com/bentley/continental-gt/ https://bringatrailer.com/bentley/continental-gt/
solarkraft 6y ago
They're going to be cheap, but/because you're not going to want one. The type of depreciation you're describing would happen in response to an extremely sudden change in circumstances, which I'm not expecting. ICEs are dying predictably enough for that Bentley to never have been bought at its original price.
mauvehaus 6y ago
The point of having a Bentley or Rolls-Royce isn't to drive a Bentley. It's to be driven in one.
- kwhitefoot 6y ago
  Traditionally it went like this in the UK: the expensive Rolls is the one you have a chauffeur for, the cheapest Roller is the self made millionaire's car and he drives himself, and the Bentley is a driver's car for the filthy rich.
- Hamuko 6y ago
  That's just downright false since the Bentley Continental GT, Rolls-Royce Wraith and Rolls-Royce Dawn exist.
mschaef 6y ago
> A year-old Bentley for $30k? The day might come as long as you are willing to be one of the ICE dinosaurs! The depreciation curves aren't quite that steep, but there are still some startlingly low prices on ICE cars that used to be very expensive. Edmunds ran a long term test on an used MB CL65. They paid $40K in 2014 for a car that initially stickered in 2005 for $180K. So at least more accessible than it used to be. Of course, their ownership was then punctuated with hard to find parts and $16K repair bills. A year later, they had to drop their asking price from $28K to resell it at $25K. https://www.edmunds.com/mercedes-benz/cl-class/2005/long-term-road-test/2005-mercedes-benz-cl65-amg-no-appreciation-for-depreciation.html https://www.edmunds.com/mercedes-benz/cl-class/2005/long-ter... High end cars tend to have high end problems even if they don't hang on to their high end prices.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  With cars being able to buy one doesn't mean you can afford it.
- chrisseaton 6y ago
  > They paid $40K in 2014 for a car that initially stickered in 2005 for $180K. Right but it's now a ten year old car. You didn't pay $40k and get a $180k car. You paid $40k and got $40k of car. I don't get why people are so excited to 'save' $140k, because they haven't gotten any of that value.
  - mschaef 6y ago
    > they haven't gotten any of that value. Agreed... and I think it's even more the case in that part of the value of that car is the price tag itself and the exclusivity it brings to your purchase. The used car doesn't have that (and it does have the associated downsides of the expensive and complex car).
  - vgeek 6y ago
    It depends-- similar to how a balance sheet goodwill value can be interpreted, the "luxury of status"/Veblen component of a car quickly disappears after 3,5 or 10 years once the styling/features change. You're probably paying a more realistic value relative to the intrinsic value of the car at that point-- which places more emphasis on performance/aesthetics/reliability/costs to keep running, rather than status-- because the car will still likely still have the luxury components such as _Corinthian Leather_, ride quality, power, quiet ride, etc.. If you buy a 10 year old Lexus with 50k miles (out of a 250k expected lifespan) that retailed for $80k for $8k, and it still has the same functions/performance/reliability, did you get "less car" than when new, or did you just not pay the status premium? How much does the status premium change if it is $15k for an originally $75k car that has 50k miles and an expected longevity of only 120k miles? It is amazing to look at the used car market (for likely daily driven vehicles) and see how specific vehicles hold their value so much differently. There are specific Audis that have a proclivity to grenading their $20k-to-replace transmissions at 80k miles, or have a rear engine timing chain that is a low 5 digit replacement when it eats a guide. So these once $80k cars can be had for a steep discount given someone is paying a huge repair bill if it is to still be driven. Even with econoboxes from finance companies who happen to sell cars (think FCA) that have had consistent sludge/electrical/emission issues over the last 3 decades-- the price falls so much faster than an equivalent Toyota. While nowadays nearly any mass market car will be able to run for 200k miles, how much will it cost to achieve said goal? This is not entirely unknown to buyers, so prices do tend to reflect. It isn't foolproof-- companies like Toyota and Honda can make crappy cars, and bad companies can make good cars-- but the average consumer uses a lot of heuristic shortcuts/anecdotes/etc. to make purchasing decisions. The enthusiast segments are even more fascinating. Certain cars are going to be more akin to works of art, even if they weren't supercar expensive to begin with: see S2000's and mk4 Supras. Even further, some vehicles for some reason are not inherently reliable, have mediocre drivetrains and practical functionality but have a much shallower depreciation curve-- Jeep Wranglers.
Der_Einzige 6y ago
You don't want a cheap Bentley no matter how much you think that you do.
mhh__ 6y ago
>A year-old Bentley for $30k? Now with even more expensive repair bills than before!

blackaspen 6y ago

I think we'll see the opposite -- ICE vehicles are going to go up in price as collectors items.

WillPostForFood 6y ago
You might be right for the high end (the Bentley example), but the middle/lower end of luxury isn't that interesting as a collectible, cars like a 5 series BMW, or Lexus LS, and could really drop in value.
- pureliquidhw 6y ago
  Seeing how manual transmission cars from the mid aught's are demanding a massive premium (like 100%+ on 1,3, and 5-series), I could see in 2045 ICE cars demanding a premium. Manual ICE cars even more so. But that's assuming they aren't projected to be illegal/heavily taxed by then.
  - blackaspen 6y ago
    Yep -- already they do, speaking as someone trying to find a manual BMW Wagon. The supply is already gone and has been for a while. The other comment in this thread on ever-smarter (cloud connected) cars too means that the market for not-cloud-connected cars is going to continue to increase too.
    - Hamuko 6y ago
      My first car was a manual 316i wagon. There definitely wasn't a premium back then unless you compared it to a ratty Corolla.
gedy 6y ago
Especially if EVs continue down the "smart car" route with locked down firmwares, dealer-only maintenance, etc.
adventured 6y ago
It'll bifurcate as a market. Nice, collectible, lesser used ICE vehicles will go up in value, for collectors that can still afford to operate and own them. It'll be a wealthier person's hobby. For everyone else they'll have very little value and most of the market will become far more burden than it's worth (because there will be increasing environmental costs associated with operating them, selling/buying them, registering them, and disposing of them).
redbeard0x0a 6y ago
For some vehicles, yes. Such as: * Toyota Tacoma - yes * Subaru WRX STI - yes But getting into the honda accord, toyota camry, these are the ICE vehicles that are going to be crazy cheap.

netsharc 6y ago

They're probably going to set road tax really high for ICE cars in a decade or so... (although, that wouldn't help people who can't afford to buy an EV). Nowadays old cars and buses get exported to less developed countries, e.g. in Africa. So, there'll be a lot of Africans driving Bentley instead.

anewaccount2021 6y ago
I agree that once EVs break the $30k price barrier + time for market adoption, we will indeed see disincentives for owning an ICE car...but there will be enough time to get some years out of driving an ICE car bought at a bargain from some high-earner who can't handle the negative signal it sends to peers.

stevenae 6y ago

You can already get lightly-used Bentleys for $30k -- https://bringatrailer.com/bentley/continental-gt/ https://bringatrailer.com/bentley/continental-gt/

solarkraft 6y ago

They're going to be cheap, but/because you're not going to want one. The type of depreciation you're describing would happen in response to an extremely sudden change in circumstances, which I'm not expecting. ICEs are dying predictably enough for that Bentley to never have been bought at its original price.

mauvehaus 6y ago

The point of having a Bentley or Rolls-Royce isn't to drive a Bentley. It's to be driven in one.

kwhitefoot 6y ago
Traditionally it went like this in the UK: the expensive Rolls is the one you have a chauffeur for, the cheapest Roller is the self made millionaire's car and he drives himself, and the Bentley is a driver's car for the filthy rich.
Hamuko 6y ago
That's just downright false since the Bentley Continental GT, Rolls-Royce Wraith and Rolls-Royce Dawn exist.

mschaef 6y ago

> A year-old Bentley for $30k? The day might come as long as you are willing to be one of the ICE dinosaurs! The depreciation curves aren't quite that steep, but there are still some startlingly low prices on ICE cars that used to be very expensive. Edmunds ran a long term test on an used MB CL65. They paid $40K in 2014 for a car that initially stickered in 2005 for $180K. So at least more accessible than it used to be. Of course, their ownership was then punctuated with hard to find parts and $16K repair bills. A year later, they had to drop their asking price from $28K to resell it at $25K. https://www.edmunds.com/mercedes-benz/cl-class/2005/long-term-road-test/2005-mercedes-benz-cl65-amg-no-appreciation-for-depreciation.html https://www.edmunds.com/mercedes-benz/cl-class/2005/long-ter... High end cars tend to have high end problems even if they don't hang on to their high end prices.

jacquesm 6y ago
With cars being able to buy one doesn't mean you can afford it.
chrisseaton 6y ago
> They paid $40K in 2014 for a car that initially stickered in 2005 for $180K. Right but it's now a ten year old car. You didn't pay $40k and get a $180k car. You paid $40k and got $40k of car. I don't get why people are so excited to 'save' $140k, because they haven't gotten any of that value.
- mschaef 6y ago
  > they haven't gotten any of that value. Agreed... and I think it's even more the case in that part of the value of that car is the price tag itself and the exclusivity it brings to your purchase. The used car doesn't have that (and it does have the associated downsides of the expensive and complex car).
- vgeek 6y ago
  It depends-- similar to how a balance sheet goodwill value can be interpreted, the "luxury of status"/Veblen component of a car quickly disappears after 3,5 or 10 years once the styling/features change. You're probably paying a more realistic value relative to the intrinsic value of the car at that point-- which places more emphasis on performance/aesthetics/reliability/costs to keep running, rather than status-- because the car will still likely still have the luxury components such as _Corinthian Leather_, ride quality, power, quiet ride, etc.. If you buy a 10 year old Lexus with 50k miles (out of a 250k expected lifespan) that retailed for $80k for $8k, and it still has the same functions/performance/reliability, did you get "less car" than when new, or did you just not pay the status premium? How much does the status premium change if it is $15k for an originally $75k car that has 50k miles and an expected longevity of only 120k miles? It is amazing to look at the used car market (for likely daily driven vehicles) and see how specific vehicles hold their value so much differently. There are specific Audis that have a proclivity to grenading their $20k-to-replace transmissions at 80k miles, or have a rear engine timing chain that is a low 5 digit replacement when it eats a guide. So these once $80k cars can be had for a steep discount given someone is paying a huge repair bill if it is to still be driven. Even with econoboxes from finance companies who happen to sell cars (think FCA) that have had consistent sludge/electrical/emission issues over the last 3 decades-- the price falls so much faster than an equivalent Toyota. While nowadays nearly any mass market car will be able to run for 200k miles, how much will it cost to achieve said goal? This is not entirely unknown to buyers, so prices do tend to reflect. It isn't foolproof-- companies like Toyota and Honda can make crappy cars, and bad companies can make good cars-- but the average consumer uses a lot of heuristic shortcuts/anecdotes/etc. to make purchasing decisions. The enthusiast segments are even more fascinating. Certain cars are going to be more akin to works of art, even if they weren't supercar expensive to begin with: see S2000's and mk4 Supras. Even further, some vehicles for some reason are not inherently reliable, have mediocre drivetrains and practical functionality but have a much shallower depreciation curve-- Jeep Wranglers.

Der_Einzige 6y ago

You don't want a cheap Bentley no matter how much you think that you do.

mhh__ 6y ago

>A year-old Bentley for $30k? Now with even more expensive repair bills than before!