5 ms·
It's really difficult to "extinguish" all human life. Even in a full nuclear exchange between all major nuclear powers, places such as patagonia, and new zeala
by lumost 6y ago
It's really difficult to "extinguish" all human life. Even in a full nuclear exchange between all major nuclear powers, places such as patagonia, and new zealand will likely be unscathed. Particulate matter does not generally cross the border between the northern and southern hemisphere and the vast majority of weapons will be detonated in the northern hemisphere. This doesn't include the countless habitable islands with the potential to sustain reasonably sized villages.
A similar story exists for bio-weapons and other means. It's definitely possible to end civilization today, but such technologies are unlikely to end humanity - worst case, rehabitation of the main continents takes 1-2 centuries for the worst fallout to decay and enable farming.
While I don't subscribe to the view, there is modest evidence that scientific progress behaves like any other process of discovery - as a series of S curves where early progress is slow but speeding up every year, followed by a spike of progress and ultimately a steady period of diminishing returns.
- klyrs 6y agoThe US has an interesting problem right now. Wild hogs are wreaking utter havoc and we don't have effective means to control their population. I'm fairly confident that humans will win that battle. But what if we nuked population centers? Most of the hogs would survive, but only a fraction of the humans. Who would win out in the decades to come? Hogs can eat all sorts of roughage, survive out in the elements, etc., humans are much more dependant on their technology. Want crops? Sorry, hogs ate 'em. Wanna eat hogs? They're smart, and after your ammo stores are depleted, you're back to the stone age. But the question isn't mere survival -- can intelligent life thrive to the point where we can achieve interstellar travel?
- Retric 6y agoI think you’re underestimating Stone Age humans, we used to hunt freaking lions and other big cats with stone tools. We started causing mass extinctions long before industrialization.
- klyrs 6y agoI'm not underestimating stone age humans -- I've spent much of my life learning and using stone age skills. Not enough that I can actually live as a stone age human, mind, and there's the rub. In that learning, I've met a very small number of folks (like [1]) who are actually equipped to survive a stone age. Judging by my experience, by watching other "good" students in those classes... with good training by masters, we still fail hard on our first few times out. And we're well-fed, moderately well-equipped, and not suffering from radiation poisoning. The real question isn't "how badass were stone age humans", it's "can the smartphone generation re-invent stone age technology quickly enough to survive"? https://www.outsideonline.com/2411125/lynx-vilden-stone-age-life https://www.outsideonline.com/2411125/lynx-vilden-stone-age-...
- dwaltrip 6y agoIt would probably incredibly brutal and many would die early on, but as long as enough people survived the initial transition and found some sort of stability, humanity would carry on. Even if conditions were generally terrible, just a few areas where the survivors can grab a toehold could be enough. The prospect of a grim, untimely death for yourself and everyone you love would be rather motivating.
- lumost 6y agoThis sounds like a great premise for a novel, and the question could be explored at a quite deep level. Consider that most ecosystems are now codependent on human civilization, and many locales do not have the necessary flora or water availability to support stone age civilization. There are certainly some ecosystems such as fishing communities north of Vancouver that would do well and be shielded from any nuclear exchange, but the wild deer population in Massachusetts would likely not be sufficient for any significant number of modern stone age men to survive.
- The_rationalist 6y agoI recommend the anime Dr Stone which answer the inverse question: can a smartphone generation, put in a stone age world, re-invent modern technology quickly enough to survive"?