7 ms·

Some Unlikely 2021 Predictions

79 points by Ianvdl 6y ago

raxxorrax 6y ago
I don't think these are too unlikely. Shame about CentOS. Never used it myself, but I know many IT-provider do use it as a base for their infrastructure. Perhaps devs can nudge them to Debian.
- bayindirh 6y ago
  > Perhaps devs can nudge them to Debian. From a management standpoint, we'd love to but, software targeting only RHEL/CentOS is a major blockage right now. Some hardware drivers (like IB HBAs) also work more performant and reliably on RHEL/CentOS.
  - jdc 6y ago
    I suppose Alien doesn't cut it eh?
    - bayindirh 6y ago
      Nope. Not by a large margin. It's more complicated, spanning from kernel configuration to file system layout to kitchen sink.
bmarquez 6y ago
If you're curious about how the 2020 predictions turned out: https://lwn.net/Articles/808260/ https://lwn.net/Articles/808260/
l0b0 6y ago
Some big Python shops will move to faster languages with static types, stable package management, stable configuration management and well-defined change management.
- viraptor 6y ago
  I hope that we'll see a raise of crystal (https://crystal-lang.org/ https://crystal-lang.org/) and a serious progress in mypyc (https://github.com/python/mypy/tree/master/mypyc https://github.com/python/mypy/tree/master/mypyc) which provide a nice middle ground.
  - Toenex 6y ago
    Similarly Nim (https://nim-lang.org/ https://nim-lang.org/).
    - da_big_ghey 6y ago
      I hope to see Jon Blow's Jai lang released. He's a bright guy who's been griping about performance for years and decided to do something about it. The language has lots of cool features like a way to "compose structs" as well as declare a structure AOS or SOA and have it just work. He's doing private betas and writing a game in it, so by the time it's done, it should be pretty solid. Complies >100k LOC in <1s last I checked.
- johnnycerberus 6y ago
  Except deep learning, most of the exploratory machine learning and data science done with Python is later implemented in Java/Scala. I've been exploring Swift recently and it has a bunch of advantages: interoparability with Python, statically typed, strong capabilities for defining values, automatic differentiation. There's a lot of inertia though.
- duckerude 6y ago
  Is there a reason to expect this in 2021 more so than in previous years?
  - oblvious-earth 6y ago
    Nope, as Python continues to be popular it just increases the rise of tools to manage Python (e.g. Poetry), increase the scalability (e.g. Dash), executable distribution (e.g. python-build-standalone), improve speed for hot code (e.g. numba.jit, mypyc, Cython), etc.. The more people use a language the more they want to solve the weak points of that language by using that language. That's not going to go away for Python until people joining fields that make Python popular (data science, automation, web api/back-ends) have another language that's more approachable.
the-dude 6y ago
For sure 2021 will be the year of the Linux desktop. Seems likely.
- swiley 6y ago
  The Linux desktop is here, you don't have to use it if you prefer sharing your computer with Apple or Microsoft. 2021 will be the year Linux phones will have reliable calling and SMS.
- amelius 6y ago
  Sadly I predict more Linux users will switch to Apple.
- mook 6y ago
  If Microsoft ships their Wayland implementation this year, it might be!
  - krastanov 6y ago
    Here is a reporting on this, for others, who just like me thought this was a joke: https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Microsoft-Writing-Wayland-Comp https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Microsof...
- rascul 6y ago
  2022 is now the year of the Linux desktop.
WillFlux 6y ago
“The end of CentOS could have the unintended effect of undermining the demand for ultra-stable ‘enterprise’ distributions in general.” That seems possible. Perhaps like the UNIX of old, Solaris et al, the ultra-stable ‘enterprise’ Linux distributions will retreat to large enterprise customers?
- bayindirh 6y ago
  I don't think so. We have Debian based ultra-stable distributions, namely Debian Stable and Ubuntu LTS. I'm not sure that RH/IBM is in the position of "nah, they can either pay or go home, we don't care". This stance will not only start a slow-shift towards Debian and Canonical (Containers are portable, right?) but, will open some gap for Oracle Linux. I bet RH wouldn't like that.
  - simonh 6y ago
    >slow-shift towards Debian and Canonical... This will only happen if no community replacement for CentOS gains traction. I wouldn't bet on that.
    - bayindirh 6y ago
      > I wouldn't bet on that. Me neither but, for some of the user base (HPC, Scientific computing, et al.), new model might not be sufficient. We'll see that. The issue is too deep but, there are some older comments by me: - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25349371 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25349371 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25448600 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25448600
    - fogihujy 6y ago
      It will also only happen if CloudLinux goes the Debian route. Which they won't, as they're launching what looks like a somewhat credible initiative to replace CentOS.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
weinzierl 6y ago
> "We can read this SolarWinds blog entry from 2019 [1] with amusement; it claimed that open-source software makes one's chance of downloading malicious software "much higher". That post has not aged well, but this attack could also happen with free software, which is distributed in binary form through a large number of trusted channels. Malicious code inserted into one of those supply chains could be used with devastating effect; we can only hope that the suppliers we trust are truly trustworthy."* The side-cut at SolarWinds made me smile. I don't like the last sentence though. We should strive for more than good hope here. [1] https://thwack.solarwinds.com/t5/Geek-Speak-Blogs/The-Pros-and-Cons-of-Open-source-Tools/ba-p/478665\ https://thwack.solarwinds.com/t5/Geek-Speak-Blogs/The-Pros-a...
- pabs3 6y ago
  These projects are a good start for that: https://reproducible-builds.org/ https://reproducible-builds.org/ https://bootstrappable.org/ https://bootstrappable.org/
osoba 6y ago
Regarding that GNOME update, do GNOME developers just don't have any competence in UX design? That screencast is suggesting you need to click the activities button in the top left corner to be able to reveal a nav panel that's all the way at the bottom. Similarly, right now, in current versions, in the file selection interface the Select button is in one corner of the window and Cancel all the way in the other. Or the annoying unnecessary dialogue when you uncompress from an archive (no I don't want an app-blocking notification that the file extracted successfully).
- jmnicolas 6y ago
  To me since Gnome 3, it feels like Gnome devs are covering their hears with their hands and shouting loudly to be sure they don't hear their users. Why would they change though? There are no consequences.
  - not_knuth 6y ago
    pojntfx also already pointed to some great resources to understand their reasoning. Also, it's a FOSS project. Which means you can make your voice heard and get involved. Just try and be kind when you make suggestions. Or, even better, contribute yourself: https://www.gnome.org/get-involved/ https://www.gnome.org/get-involved/
    - turminal 6y ago
      The problem is they weren't really kind towards people with suggestions in the past.
      - not_knuth 6y ago
        I've heard this many times before, but have never made the experience myself. Can you please share a link to examples? I'm just trying to understand where this bad reputation for gnome comes from.
        6y ago
loosescrews 6y ago
The GNOME prediction doesn't seem like the others. It seems like a very minor planned change. The most significant part appears to be changing the version number drastically to adopt the trend of making version numbers meaningless. Or at least that is what I am assuming they are doing. I didn't see it specified, but changing to version 40 only seems to make sense if the plan is to regularly increment the major version. Regardless, the changes don't seem controversial at all. I have been using GNOME 3 daily for a couple of years now. I have gotten used to it, but I still think it is genuinely bad. These minor changes don't address any of my gripes, and in one case makes things ever so slightly worse. Honestly though, I don't think these super minor changes are going to change anyone's mind about GNOME 3. Back to version numbers, if you are going to make them purely based on date like projects such as Chromium and Firefox have done, why not make the version number a date like Ubuntu does? The major version is meaningless in the normal major version sense and mapping the version number to the release date requires a per-project formula/table.
clavalle 6y ago
SolarWinds was a wakeup call but it was also a special case. I remember when I got the first demo of SolarWinds years ago and the cold sweat feeling when they drilled down all the way into individual calls to the database and thinking 'That's cool, no doubt, but that's a /lot/ of access'. I've only installed it on dev and qa systems with scrambled, nonsense data. A little common sense goes a long way.
hikerclimber 6y ago
i think the pandemic will spread even more and be more deadly.

79 points by Ianvdl 6y ago

I don't think these are too unlikely. Shame about CentOS. Never used it myself, but I know many IT-provider do use it as a base for their infrastructure. Perhaps devs can nudge them to Debian.

bayindirh 6y ago
> Perhaps devs can nudge them to Debian. From a management standpoint, we'd love to but, software targeting only RHEL/CentOS is a major blockage right now. Some hardware drivers (like IB HBAs) also work more performant and reliably on RHEL/CentOS.
- jdc 6y ago
  I suppose Alien doesn't cut it eh?
  - bayindirh 6y ago
    Nope. Not by a large margin. It's more complicated, spanning from kernel configuration to file system layout to kitchen sink.

bmarquez 6y ago

If you're curious about how the 2020 predictions turned out: https://lwn.net/Articles/808260/ https://lwn.net/Articles/808260/

l0b0 6y ago

Some big Python shops will move to faster languages with static types, stable package management, stable configuration management and well-defined change management.

viraptor 6y ago
I hope that we'll see a raise of crystal (https://crystal-lang.org/ https://crystal-lang.org/) and a serious progress in mypyc (https://github.com/python/mypy/tree/master/mypyc https://github.com/python/mypy/tree/master/mypyc) which provide a nice middle ground.
- Toenex 6y ago
  Similarly Nim (https://nim-lang.org/ https://nim-lang.org/).
  - da_big_ghey 6y ago
    I hope to see Jon Blow's Jai lang released. He's a bright guy who's been griping about performance for years and decided to do something about it. The language has lots of cool features like a way to "compose structs" as well as declare a structure AOS or SOA and have it just work. He's doing private betas and writing a game in it, so by the time it's done, it should be pretty solid. Complies >100k LOC in <1s last I checked.
johnnycerberus 6y ago
Except deep learning, most of the exploratory machine learning and data science done with Python is later implemented in Java/Scala. I've been exploring Swift recently and it has a bunch of advantages: interoparability with Python, statically typed, strong capabilities for defining values, automatic differentiation. There's a lot of inertia though.
duckerude 6y ago
Is there a reason to expect this in 2021 more so than in previous years?
- oblvious-earth 6y ago
  Nope, as Python continues to be popular it just increases the rise of tools to manage Python (e.g. Poetry), increase the scalability (e.g. Dash), executable distribution (e.g. python-build-standalone), improve speed for hot code (e.g. numba.jit, mypyc, Cython), etc.. The more people use a language the more they want to solve the weak points of that language by using that language. That's not going to go away for Python until people joining fields that make Python popular (data science, automation, web api/back-ends) have another language that's more approachable.

the-dude 6y ago

For sure 2021 will be the year of the Linux desktop. Seems likely.

swiley 6y ago
The Linux desktop is here, you don't have to use it if you prefer sharing your computer with Apple or Microsoft. 2021 will be the year Linux phones will have reliable calling and SMS.
amelius 6y ago
Sadly I predict more Linux users will switch to Apple.
mook 6y ago
If Microsoft ships their Wayland implementation this year, it might be!
- krastanov 6y ago
  Here is a reporting on this, for others, who just like me thought this was a joke: https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Microsoft-Writing-Wayland-Comp https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Microsof...
rascul 6y ago
2022 is now the year of the Linux desktop.

WillFlux 6y ago

“The end of CentOS could have the unintended effect of undermining the demand for ultra-stable ‘enterprise’ distributions in general.” That seems possible. Perhaps like the UNIX of old, Solaris et al, the ultra-stable ‘enterprise’ Linux distributions will retreat to large enterprise customers?

bayindirh 6y ago
I don't think so. We have Debian based ultra-stable distributions, namely Debian Stable and Ubuntu LTS. I'm not sure that RH/IBM is in the position of "nah, they can either pay or go home, we don't care". This stance will not only start a slow-shift towards Debian and Canonical (Containers are portable, right?) but, will open some gap for Oracle Linux. I bet RH wouldn't like that.
- simonh 6y ago
  >slow-shift towards Debian and Canonical... This will only happen if no community replacement for CentOS gains traction. I wouldn't bet on that.
  - bayindirh 6y ago
    > I wouldn't bet on that. Me neither but, for some of the user base (HPC, Scientific computing, et al.), new model might not be sufficient. We'll see that. The issue is too deep but, there are some older comments by me: - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25349371 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25349371 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25448600 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25448600
  - fogihujy 6y ago
    It will also only happen if CloudLinux goes the Debian route. Which they won't, as they're launching what looks like a somewhat credible initiative to replace CentOS.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

weinzierl 6y ago

> "We can read this SolarWinds blog entry from 2019 [1] with amusement; it claimed that open-source software makes one's chance of downloading malicious software "much higher". That post has not aged well, but this attack could also happen with free software, which is distributed in binary form through a large number of trusted channels. Malicious code inserted into one of those supply chains could be used with devastating effect; we can only hope that the suppliers we trust are truly trustworthy."* The side-cut at SolarWinds made me smile. I don't like the last sentence though. We should strive for more than good hope here. [1] https://thwack.solarwinds.com/t5/Geek-Speak-Blogs/The-Pros-and-Cons-of-Open-source-Tools/ba-p/478665\ https://thwack.solarwinds.com/t5/Geek-Speak-Blogs/The-Pros-a...

pabs3 6y ago
These projects are a good start for that: https://reproducible-builds.org/ https://reproducible-builds.org/ https://bootstrappable.org/ https://bootstrappable.org/

osoba 6y ago

Regarding that GNOME update, do GNOME developers just don't have any competence in UX design? That screencast is suggesting you need to click the activities button in the top left corner to be able to reveal a nav panel that's all the way at the bottom. Similarly, right now, in current versions, in the file selection interface the Select button is in one corner of the window and Cancel all the way in the other. Or the annoying unnecessary dialogue when you uncompress from an archive (no I don't want an app-blocking notification that the file extracted successfully).

jmnicolas 6y ago
To me since Gnome 3, it feels like Gnome devs are covering their hears with their hands and shouting loudly to be sure they don't hear their users. Why would they change though? There are no consequences.
- not_knuth 6y ago
  pojntfx also already pointed to some great resources to understand their reasoning. Also, it's a FOSS project. Which means you can make your voice heard and get involved. Just try and be kind when you make suggestions. Or, even better, contribute yourself: https://www.gnome.org/get-involved/ https://www.gnome.org/get-involved/
  - turminal 6y ago
    The problem is they weren't really kind towards people with suggestions in the past.
    - not_knuth 6y ago
      I've heard this many times before, but have never made the experience myself. Can you please share a link to examples? I'm just trying to understand where this bad reputation for gnome comes from.
      - 6y ago

loosescrews 6y ago

The GNOME prediction doesn't seem like the others. It seems like a very minor planned change. The most significant part appears to be changing the version number drastically to adopt the trend of making version numbers meaningless. Or at least that is what I am assuming they are doing. I didn't see it specified, but changing to version 40 only seems to make sense if the plan is to regularly increment the major version. Regardless, the changes don't seem controversial at all. I have been using GNOME 3 daily for a couple of years now. I have gotten used to it, but I still think it is genuinely bad. These minor changes don't address any of my gripes, and in one case makes things ever so slightly worse. Honestly though, I don't think these super minor changes are going to change anyone's mind about GNOME 3. Back to version numbers, if you are going to make them purely based on date like projects such as Chromium and Firefox have done, why not make the version number a date like Ubuntu does? The major version is meaningless in the normal major version sense and mapping the version number to the release date requires a per-project formula/table.

clavalle 6y ago

SolarWinds was a wakeup call but it was also a special case. I remember when I got the first demo of SolarWinds years ago and the cold sweat feeling when they drilled down all the way into individual calls to the database and thinking 'That's cool, no doubt, but that's a /lot/ of access'. I've only installed it on dev and qa systems with scrambled, nonsense data. A little common sense goes a long way.

hikerclimber 6y ago

i think the pandemic will spread even more and be more deadly.